Financial Review

Discount of the Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-24-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…US-North Korea summit nixed; coins still on sale. Rolling back Dodd Frank. Existing home sales drop – tight inventory, higher rates. Europeans get digital privacy, and it spills over on you. Netflix quietly grows. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-24-2018

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Financial Review

Not Exactly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….On again off again trade wars/disputes, whatever. Oil prices and everything else starting to pinch. Dodd Frank rollback because…, it works? Zuckerberg goes to the EU. SpaceX again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-22-2018

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Financial Review

Stuff Happening

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-08-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Comey testifies. ECB unchanged. Brits hung up on vote. Brazil’s Temer gets a reprieve. Household wealth jumped in 1Q. Nordstrom private. Hudson’s Bay’s job cuts. Yahoo-Verizon on. Alibaba jumps. Endo loses painkiller.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-08-2017

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Financial Review

Trump Budget

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump budget proposal includes big increases in defense spending and big cuts to social programs. Based on 3% GDP growth. Hits Social Security and Medicaid. Let the budget battles begin.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-23-2017

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Financial Review

Split

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high close. Dollar gains. Greece on the edge of… China’s reserve slip. US trade deficit grows. US consumer credit inches up. CoreLogic home price index jumps. JOLT survey – openings flat, quits down. Betsy Devos confirmed. Army goes ahead with Dakota Access Pipeline. A gift for big oil. 9th Circuit hears arguments for travel ban. Oil prices down. GM workers finally catch a break. Apple number one in phone sales. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-07-2017

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Financial Review

Uncertain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-06-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Brexit will hurt. EU will keep Russian sanctions. Tech against immigration ban. Fiduciary rule and Dodd-Frank not really dead. When central banks stop buying bonds. JPMorgan on Chinese bonds. US adds oil rigs. Hudson’s Bay considers Macy’s. Earnings season rolls on: Tyson, Toyota, Hasbro. OK Google, turn off the commercial.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-06-2017

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Financial Review

Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On Tuesday, investors pulled out $19 billion, the biggest single day for outflows in the past 8 years.  Some traders would call that “capitulation”, a sign of a bottom in the markets.   The chaos of this week’s markets appeared to hit smaller investors especially hard, leaving yet another dent in their stock market confidence. The Monday flash crash resulted in smaller investors being locked out of their online accounts. Strange glitches appeared. Exchanges spit out the wrong prices for widely held funds. For example, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF dropped 33% in 15 minutes, then shot right back up 30 minutes later, while the stocks tracked by the ETF never fell that far. The QQQ, …

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Financial Review

Sunlight is the Best Disinfectant

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-05-2015 DOW – 10 = 17,540 SPX + 6 = 2099 NAS + 34 = 5139 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.27% OIL – .59 = 45.15 GOLD – 3.00 = 1085.50 SILV + .02 = 14.69   Private-sector hiring slowed in July. Employers added 185,000 private-sector jobs in July, down from 229,000 jobs in June, and below the average pace for the past six months. Gains slowed across all size-firms except large firms in July. Manufacturing employment has slowed sharply since the beginning of the year. The ADP report sometimes offers a hint of what we might expect from the monthly government report on jobs, which will be released Friday. Strength or weakness in the labor market is thought to be a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to possibly hike interest rates in September.   The Institute for Supply Management said its services index surged to 60.3% from a 56% reading in June. Any reading above 50% indicates expansion. It was the highest reading since 2005. The business activity and new orders components both were over 60%, and the employment index increased 6.9 percentage points to 59.6%. We’ll have more details on the ISM report in our next segment.   Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it would take “significant deterioration” in the U.S. economy for him to not support a rate hike in …

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Financial Review

Into the Ditch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW -181 = 17,919 SPX – 9 = 2119 NAS -10 = 5208 10 YR YLD – 3 = 2.34% OIL + .21 = 50.36 GOLD + 3.30 = 1102.00 SILV + .18 = 14.95     Earnings reporting season continues with about one-quarter of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week. Among the gainers: Harley Davidson posted second quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations, Travelers posted a second-quarter profit that was better than expected, due to fewer losses from catastrophes. Among the decliners: United Technologies issued a profit warning and announced that its aerospace and elevator units will be below expectations due to a strong dollar and China’s economic slump, IBM’s second quarter earnings fell 17% and revenue dropped 13%, Verizon posted better than expected earnings but revenue missed estimates, Lexmark swung to a loss and announced it will cut 500 jobs.   The big news in earnings came from some of the biggest names: Apple and Microsoft. Apple sold 47.5 million iPhones, a 35 percent gain, in the period that ended in June. Analysts had anticipated 48.8 million shipments. Net income in the fiscal third quarter, which ended in June, was $10.7 billion, or $1.85 a share, while revenue rose 33 percent to $49.6 billion. Analysts on average had forecast third-quarter profit of $1.81 a share on sales of $49.4 billion. The gross margin was 39.7 percent, …

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Financial Review

How to Eat a Bank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 98 = 18,057 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 21 = 4995 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .99 = 51.78 GOLD + 13.80 = 1208.30 SILV + .34 = 16.59   For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains.   Oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The oil rally coincided with a stronger dollar, which weighs on dollar denominated commodities. In March, the prices the U.S. paid for imported goods and services fell for the eighth time in the last nine months, even though the cost of foreign oil actually rose for the second straight time. Import prices dropped 0.3% last month, or an even steeper 0.4% excluding fuel.   The sharply lower cost of imported goods is a double-edged sword. We may pay less for commodities and all sorts of goods such as cell phones and electronics; and that can stretch paychecks. Next Tuesday the Commerce Department reports on retail sales and we’ll find out if shoppers are in a spending mood or a savings mood. A strong dollar is also great if you plan to travel abroad; they say April in Paris is pretty nice. Yet the strong dollar also makes US goods and services …

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Financial Review

Theories on Apples and Applesauce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 190 = 17,511 SPX + 26 = 2019 NAS + 63 = 4634 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.81% OIL + 2.32 = 48.57 GOLD + 17.70 = 1281.30 SILV + .83 = 17.88 Stocks bounced back after five sessions of losses. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher, though energy led the charge, rising 2.8%. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 5% after the International Energy Agency said there were signs that lower prices had begun to curb production in some areas. On the week, oil rose 0.7%, snapping a seven-week losing streak. The IEA report said that the market’s floor was still anybody’s guess, but “the sell-off is having an impact,” and “A price recovery – barring any major disruption – may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn. We love lower gas prices. A gauge of consumer sentiment jumped up to an 11 year high this month. The preliminary January reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index increased to 98.2, the highest level since January 2004, from a final December reading of 93.6. Also, more households were reporting increases in household incomes. Consumer inflation in December saw the biggest monthly drop in six years. Consumer prices, the CPI, fell 0.4% in December. You know the big driver for lower prices; energy prices plunged 4.7% in …

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Financial Review

Something is Rotten

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 315 = 17,280 SPX – 33 = 2002 NAS – 54 = 4653 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.10% OIL – 2.52 = 57.43 GOLD – 5.60 = 1222.80 SILV – .06 = 17.14 The fall in oil prices has been dramatic, now down almost 47% since June. Nobody was expecting it would fall that far that fast. Goldman was forecasting $85 oil for 2015 as recently as October 29. Crude-oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2009 on Friday, briefly dropping below $57 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency delivered the latest reduction in forecasts for global oil demand. On the week, oil futures have lost slightly more than 12%. So, oil is a bit oversold right here but it is never a good idea to try to catch a falling knife. And the whole drop just tells us that something is rotten in the markets. The fundamentals of oil have not changed in concert with the price. We don’t have double the oil we had in June. So why is the price cut in half? I know that’s overly simplistic, but either the market is too negative on energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. Low prices lead to oil being left in the ground. Low oil prices lead to debt defaults. Low oil prices can lead …

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Financial Review

Before the Flood

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-11-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 63 = 17,596 SPX + 9 = 2035 NAS + 24 = 4708 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.18% OIL – 1.22 = 59.72 GOLD + 1.30 = 1228.40 SILV + .04 = 17.20 We have a lot to cover. Let’s start with the economic news. The government reported early this morning that retail sales in November expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, rising 0.7%. A wide variety of retailers reported healthy sales last month. Retail sales growth hit 1.7% for autos, the most since August; and 1.2% for clothing, the most since April. Sales at building material and garden equipment stores jumped 1.4%, the most since April; while online or non-store retailers saw a 1% sales gain. The Commerce Department reports business inventories rose 0.2% in October, as building material and clothing stores both built stocks heading into the holiday season. That represents a 4.8% gain from October 2013. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits hit the lowest level in three weeks, as employers continued to lay off very few workers. Initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits inched down by 3,000 to 294,000 in the week that ended Dec. 6. The prices paid for imported goods fell 1.5% in November, the largest drop since June 2012, dragged down by lower fuel prices. Excluding fuel, import prices declined by 0.2% …

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Financial Review

The Failure of the Holder Doctrine

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 264 = 16,945 SPX – 32 = 1965 NAS – 88 = 4466 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.51% OIL – .32 = 91.21 GOLD + 5.30 = 1222.90 SILV – .18 = 17.60 In economic news: For the week ending Sept. 20, seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment compensation were 293,000, up 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 281,000. For the comparable week of 2013, the figure was 316,000. Orders for durable goods dropped 18.2% in August; which sounds absolutely horrible until you put in in perspective; durable goods orders were up 22.5% in July. It sounds like the economists behind this report need to step away from the crack pipe, but the real reason for the volatility is airplane orders, which are for big expensive durable goods, and usually in big, expensive contracts. For example, Boeing took orders for 107 new planes in August, but that’s down from 324 orders in July. Stripping out the transportation sector, order rose 0.7%. Orders for core capital goods – a broader measure of business investment – climbed by 0.6% in August. Tomorrow the government will reveal the third of three regular estimates of growth in the period of April to June. The gain in GDP is likely to be raised to 4.7% from a prior estimate of 4.2%, mainly because fresh data show that consumers spent much more …

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Thursday, January 09, 2014 – A World Of Central Bankers

A World Of Central Bankers by Sinclair Noe DOW – 17 = 16,444SPX + 0.64 = 1838NAS – 9 = 415610 YR YLD – .03 = 2.96%OIL – .67 = 91.66GOLD + 1.80 = 1228.70SILV + .02 = 19.65 If it’s not one central bank, it’s another. Today the European Central Bank and the Bank of England met to determine monetary policy. Back in November, the ECB cut interest rates to 0.25%, so there were no expectations of further rate cuts in today’s meeting. In Britain, which is outside the euro zone, the Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent. As the US Federal Reserve has been creating new dollars at the rate of $85 billion a month under Quantitative Easing, the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing, even as the ECB’s balance sheet has been shrinking. And even though the Fed announced it would scale back those purchases by $10 billion a month, that just means the Fed balance sheet will continue growing, just not as fast. Or the bottom line; the Fed is creating money and the ECB is not. Today, Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB said he wanted to “strongly emphasize” his earlier promise to keep monetary policy easy for as long as necessary. And Draghi said the ECB was “ready to consider all available instruments” to address either further weakness in consumer prices or increases in short-term money market rates that could put stress on …

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Friday, August 23, 2013 – QE Giveth and QE Taketh

QE Giveth and QE Taketh by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 15,010SPX + 6 = 1663NAS + 19 = 365710 YR YLD – .08 = 2.82%OIL + 1.39 = 106.42GOLD + 21.70 = 1398.80SILV + .90 = 24.18 Yesterday, the Nasdaq crashed for about 3 hours; trading was halted; we still don’t know why. It now has a snappy name, the Flash Freeze. It happened after shares of Apple got stuck at $498, then everything froze. In time we’ll hear a good story about why it happened. My best guess for now is that it has to do with high frequency traders; the algo traders have a tendency to clog the trading pipes with all their bids, offers, and canceled orders as they try to scalp and front run trades. The market exchanges claim the high frequency traders provide liquidity, but I didn’t see any liquidity for about 3 hours yesterday; zip, nada. The markets had a pleasant and quiet day today, following a couple of weeks of fretting about Fed taper. America has created a whopping entitlement for the biggest Wall Street banks and their top executives, who, unlike most of the rest of us, are no longer allowed to fail. They can borrow from the Fed at almost no cost, then lend out the money at 3 percent to 6 percent or 30 percent; or they can take the money and gamble in markets they have rigged: derivatives, interest rates, energy, aluminum. It’s all rigged; the big …

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Monday, August 19, 2013 – Not Attending Jackson Hole

Not Attending Jackson Hole by Sinclair Noe DOW – 70 = 15,010SPX – 9 = 1646NAS – 13 = 358910 YR YLD + .05 = 2.88%OIL – .51 = 1365.20GOLD – 11.60 = 1366.60SILV – .07 = 23.29 It don’t know where Ben Bernanke is. I know he is not scheduled to be in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. Most of the Federal Reserve policy makers will be at Jackson Hole for the annual economic get-together to debate whether the Fed should pull back from its $85 billion dollar per month asset purchase plan known as Quantitative Easing, also known as QE, also known as Stock Market Rocket Fuel. QE has lifted the markets to record highs this year, and talk of exiting QE has dropped the markets from highs the past couple of weeks. Egypt continues to slip into a dark place as the military continues its bloody crackdown on civilian protesters. Just don’t call it a coup; that specific designation would require an end to foreign aid. Egypt has been one of the biggest recipients of US foreign aid over the years. Egypt gets about $1.3 billion a year in aid. The money is not sent directly to Egypt; it goes to defense contractors who then send military equipment and expertise to the Egyptian military. The biggest recipients of foreign aid to Egypt are Lockheed Martin, pulling in more than a quarter billion a year, followed by several others pulling in tens of millions, including DRS Technologies, L-3, …

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Tuesday, July 23, 2013 – Woman Gives Birth to a Baby

Woman Gives Birth to a Baby by Sinclair Noe DOW + 22 = 15,567SPX – 3 = 1692NAS – 21 = 3579 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51%OIL + .09 = 107.00 GOLD + 12.50 = 1348.70SILV – .05 = 20.59 The Dow Industrial Average hit a new record high close. The S&P 500 was down slightly after four straight gains, including a record high yesterday. It’s still earnings reporting season, and the big report today came after the close of trade. Apple reported better than expected sales and profits. Generally, we’re seeing revenues are coming in pretty lackluster and profits seem to be doing a little better than gains in sales. In the first quarter of 2013, we saw an interesting and unexpected development. While the corporate earnings of S&P 500 companies were better than expected, their revenues weren’t nearly as impressive.  Just 46% of S&P 500 companies reported revenues above estimates. And the second-quarter corporate earnings might be similar, if not worse. Keep in mind that before second-quarter earnings season began, we had 87 S&P 500 companies issue negative earnings guidance. The information technology and consumer discretionary sectors of the S&P 500 had the largest number of companies issuing negative guidance about their corporate earnings relative to their five-year average. Many stock advisors are staying optimistic and not taking into consideration the reliability of corporate earnings. Consider the Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment index. It has been increasing for three consecutive periods and is closing in on highs …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, April 25, 2013 – Austerians v. Keynesians

Austerians v. Keynesians by Sinclair Noe DOW + 24 = 14,700SPX + 6 = 1585NAS + 20 = 328910 YR YLD + .01 = 1.71%OIL + 1.79 = 93.22GOLD + 36.70 = 1469.20SILV + 1.24 = 24.50 Five years ago the banking system nearly imploded and almost resulted in a meltdown of the global financial system. Three years ago Congress passed the Dodd-Frank financial reforms, aimed at correcting some of the problems of 2008. Dodd-Frank may have included some good ideas, but you had to wade through 2,000 pages to find anything worthwhile. Much of the legislation has still not been implemented, and on the issue of averting another banking system implosion, it really didn’t do much; it basically called on regulators to do a better job of catching problems and nipping them in the bud. We all know that’s not going to happen. And so, the biggest banks have been getting bigger than before the financial crisis and it’s widely believed that if a big bank were to fail, they would be bailed out.., again. The government considers these banks to be Systemically Important Financial Institutions, which means they are Too Big to Fail. That implied backing has given firms a green light to engage in risky activities that pose a threat to the financial system. Yesterday, Senators David Vitter and Sherrod Brown introduced legislation that aims to end the implicit guarantee of a government bailout. Brown and Vitter are calling for big banks with more than $500 billion in …

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Tuesday, June 12, 2012 – Cleaning Off My Desk on an Off Day – by Sinclair Noe

Did you notice that the Non-bailout Spanish Bank Bailout grew over the weekend?  Last Friday, the International Monetary Fund said Spain’s banks would need to raise at least $46 billion dollars as a buffer against a sharper economic contraction and to stabilize the Spanish financial system and prevent contagion to the rest of the Euro-zone. Before the weekend finished, the bailout had grown to more than $125 billion and we were already hearing warnings that it wasn’t enough. The bailout has almost no chance of success and it seems just a matter of time until the Euro-powers that be impose harsh conditions on Spain. The Euro-zone leaders seem unwilling or unable to change from their austerity policies, even as Greece and Spain fall apart and the core euro-zone economies contract. Four years after the financial crisis began, many rich capitalist economies have not recovered their pre-crisis output levels. There are 60 million fewer people employed worldwide than if the pre-crisis trend had continued. In countries like Spain and Greece, overall jobless rates are approaching 25%, with youth unemployment over 50%. Even in countries experiencing “milder” unemployment problems, like the US and the UK, between 8% and 10% are out of work. If we include those who have given up looking for jobs or those who are forced to work part-time for want of fulltime opportunities, “real” unemployment could be easily over 15% even in these countries.The remedies on offer are well known. Reduce budget deficits by cutting spending – especially “unproductive” …

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