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Wednesday, May 15, 2013 – Have Another Cookie

Have Another Cookie by Sinclair Noe DOW + 60 = 15275SPX + 8 = 1658NAS + 9 = 347110 YR YLD – .01 = 1.94%OIL + .18 = 94.39GOLD – 33.30 = 1393.50SILV – .82 = 22.69 More record highs on Wall Street. We celebrate with milk and cookies, and remembrances of the days of rice and beans and tins of tuna. Record highs are fleeting, almost ephemeral. I know the trend is your friend; don’t fight the Fed; a rising tide lifts all boats; yada, yada. Why is this starting to feel like an asset bubble? Stock Traders Daily did a comparison of quarter to quarter earnings and revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials: “For the past two consecutive quarters, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had zero growth. In fact, this quarter revenue growth declined by 2.65% (25 companies reporting thus far) and earnings have barely budged. Last quarter, there was negative earnings growth with revenue growth less than 1%, and since the third quarter of 2010, the EPS growth rate for the Dow has been declining steadily.” So, the growth rate is at zero and the prices keep going higher. Don’t worry, have another cookie; after 13 years in the market, you should be back to break even. Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing-market index rose to 44 in May from 41 in April. The NAHB says builders are noting an increased sense of urgency among potential buyers as …

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Tuesday, March 26, 2013 – Miles to Go

Miles to Go by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 14,559SPX + 12 = 1563NAS + 17 = 3252 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91OIL + 1.40 = 96.21GOLD – 5.90 = 1600.50SILV – .09 = 28.86 The Dow Industrial hit a record hit close today, taking out the March 14 closing high. The S&P 500 came within a couple of points of the high close; it is having a hard time breaking through the ceiling; you just have to content yourself with the idea that the index has more than doubled from the lows of March 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines, fell 7.1 percent to 12.77. The gauge has tumbled 29 percent for the year. It is a reflection of complacency. We have many things to cover today. Home prices were up in January and the year over year improvement in prices was the fastest in 6 years. The S&P Case Shiller Index of existing home sales was up 0.1% in January, and the year over year gains were 8.1%. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. Sales of new U.S. homes fell 4.6% in February to mark the biggest drop in two years, though poor weather likely played a big role. Sales slowed to an annual rate of 411,000, …

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Diminished Expectations by Sinclair Noe (to listen to Financial Review audio visit MoneyRadio.com) DOW – 110 = 13,473SPX – 14 = 1441NAS – 47 = 306510 YR YLD – .03 = 1.72%OIL – .23 = 92.16GOLD – 11.60 = 1764.90SILV – .08 = 34.00PLAT – 8.00 = 1692.00 On this day five years ago, the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs; the Dow closed at 14,164 and the S&P 500 closed at 1,545. The Dow is currently 4 percent below that peak, the S&P is 7 percent below its record. So, will the current cyclical bull market end tomorrow? It’s not a crazy question; it happened on this date 5 years ago. It looked a little like it today. It’s earnings reporting season. Back in July, analysts said they expected Alcoa to report earnings of 12 cents per share, then expectations were lowered and now the hope was for break even. Alcoa reported a net loss of $143 million, or 13 cents per share, compared with a profit of $172 million, or 15 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue decreased 9 percent to $5.83 billion from $6.42 billion a year ago. The first report I read on Alcoa earnings after the close said, Alcoa reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations. Excluding charges from the settlement of a civil lawsuit and environmental remediation of a New York state river, earnings were 3 cents per share. Here’s the thing; lawsuits and environmental remediation are …

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