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Tuesday, March 26, 2013 – Miles to Go

Miles to Go by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 14,559SPX + 12 = 1563NAS + 17 = 3252 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91OIL + 1.40 = 96.21GOLD – 5.90 = 1600.50SILV – .09 = 28.86 The Dow Industrial hit a record hit close today, taking out the March 14 closing high. The S&P 500 came within a couple of points of the high close; it is having a hard time breaking through the ceiling; you just have to content yourself with the idea that the index has more than doubled from the lows of March 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines, fell 7.1 percent to 12.77. The gauge has tumbled 29 percent for the year. It is a reflection of complacency. We have many things to cover today. Home prices were up in January and the year over year improvement in prices was the fastest in 6 years. The S&P Case Shiller Index of existing home sales was up 0.1% in January, and the year over year gains were 8.1%. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. Sales of new U.S. homes fell 4.6% in February to mark the biggest drop in two years, though poor weather likely played a big role. Sales slowed to an annual rate of 411,000, …

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Diminished Expectations by Sinclair Noe (to listen to Financial Review audio visit MoneyRadio.com) DOW – 110 = 13,473SPX – 14 = 1441NAS – 47 = 306510 YR YLD – .03 = 1.72%OIL – .23 = 92.16GOLD – 11.60 = 1764.90SILV – .08 = 34.00PLAT – 8.00 = 1692.00 On this day five years ago, the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs; the Dow closed at 14,164 and the S&P 500 closed at 1,545. The Dow is currently 4 percent below that peak, the S&P is 7 percent below its record. So, will the current cyclical bull market end tomorrow? It’s not a crazy question; it happened on this date 5 years ago. It looked a little like it today. It’s earnings reporting season. Back in July, analysts said they expected Alcoa to report earnings of 12 cents per share, then expectations were lowered and now the hope was for break even. Alcoa reported a net loss of $143 million, or 13 cents per share, compared with a profit of $172 million, or 15 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue decreased 9 percent to $5.83 billion from $6.42 billion a year ago. The first report I read on Alcoa earnings after the close said, Alcoa reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations. Excluding charges from the settlement of a civil lawsuit and environmental remediation of a New York state river, earnings were 3 cents per share. Here’s the thing; lawsuits and environmental remediation are …

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