Financial Review

Uncertainty

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:01 — 11.9MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks finished mixed – up for the week – down for the month and year. A look at 2018 market movers. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2018

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Financial Review

Maalox Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks bounce at the end of a very bad week. Another (short) government shutdown. Winners and losers Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-09-2018

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Financial Review

Black Thursday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-08-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…. Another crash, Dow down 1,032. This is turning into a real problem. Markets are panicky. Fear over inflation and higher rates, and maybe a currency war with China. Also, waiting on a budget deal. Meanwhile, we found a few (long) winners. … Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2018

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Financial Review

Da’ Bomb

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-03-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Record highs for Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2K. Fed minutes. Manufacturing win-win. Construction spending up. Car sales. Crude hits $61. Bombogenesis…. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-03-2018

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Financial Review

A New Record for Record Highs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow and S&P hit record highs, again. Copper 4-year high. Oil up. North Korea caught red handed. South Korea clamps down on bitcoin. A shift in the Senate. A very bad weather year. Looking for loopholes in the tax plan…. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2017

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Financial Review

Quads

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all close at record highs. Passive investors continue to add money. Big money pros still act skittish. Earnings looking good for now. CBO scores repeal only and it is ugly. House tries a reset with the budget. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2017

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Financial Review

Complacency Abounds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Russell close at record highs. Retail sales fell in June. CPI shows inflation flatline. Industrial production up. Consumer sentiment is strong now but the future sucks. Big 3 banks report earnings, topping profit estimates and dropping on the news. Waiting on a health care bill Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-14-2017

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Financial Review

Halftime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stock wrap for the day, month, quarter and first half – mainly higher. Wheat wins. Dollar down. Oil down. Buffett wins again. Consumer spending up. Sentiment down. Illinois teeters on junk. Send in the ATF. Happy 4th. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-30-2017

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Financial Review

Computer Says

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-13-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, and Russell hit record highs. Computers have taken over stocks. Wholesale inflation flat. Home prices pop. NFIB small biz optimism flat. CFO optimism wanes. Waiting on the Fed. Mr. Sessions in the briar patch. Russian cyberattack was bigger than thought. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-13-2017

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Financial Review

Like a Bird on a Wire

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow record high. Commodities, financials up. Bonds, tech and emerging markets down. Fed jawbones for higher rates. Trump transition takes shape. Trumpcare takes shape vaguely. Happy Singles Day. App judgment. Super moon rising. Veterans Day thanks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-11-2016

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Financial Review

The Last Jobs Report of 2015

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-08-2015 DOW – 167 = 16,346 SPX – 21 = 1922 NAS – 45 = 4643 10 Y – .02 = 2.13% OIL – .34 = 32.93 GOLD – 4.60 = 1105.60   The economy added 292,000 new jobs in December, much higher than estimates of 205,000 to 215,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. The October and November reports were revised higher to show an additional 50,000 new jobs. In the final three months of 2015, the U.S. added an average of 284,000 jobs. That’s the fastest pace in almost a year. For the past year the economy added 2.7 million jobs. In 2014 the economy added 3.1 million jobs; that’s the best 2 years for job growth since the late 1990s. The economy has added jobs for 70 consecutive months; right at 14 million jobs during that time.  Over the past year the unemployment rate has dropped from 5.7% to the current 5%.   Hiring in December was led by professional firms. They added 73,000 jobs, though almost half were temporary. Construction companies added 45,000 new workers (but that might be more a sign of mild winter weather across much of the country in December, rather than a big upsurge in construction). Over the year, construction added 263,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 338,000 jobs in 2014. Health care employment rose by 39,000, with most …

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Financial Review

2015 Financial Review

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-31-2015 DOW – 178 = 17,425 SPX – 19 = 2043 NAS – 58 = 5007 10 Y – .03 = 2.27% OIL + .45 = 37.05 GOLD + .40 = 1060.20 SILV – .03 = 13.81   This is the final day of the year, and so it is appropriate to review where the markets stand; generally, it was ugly. We’ll take a look at stocks, bonds, the dollar and commodities. It was not an easy year for investors. Nearly 70% of investors lost money this year, according to Openfolio, an app that allows people to track their investment performance and compare their portfolio with other users. Warren Buffett is seeing his worst year since 2008, with Berkshire Hathaway shares down more than 11% year to date. Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital sent a letter to investors in December that said 2015 may be the fund’s worst year since it was founded in 2004. 2008 was a terrible year in the stock market, but bonds were up 22%. But this year, not one major asset class had a good year.   If you went to sleep on December 31, 2014 and you just woke up today, you might think nothing happened in 2015. The S&P 500 index started the year at 2058, and closed at 2043, for a loss of 15 points or about 0.7%; with dividends …

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Financial Review

Slip Sliding Away

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-09-2015 DOW – 75 = 17,492 SPX – 15 – 2047 NAS – 75 = 5022 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.21% OIL – .28 = 37.24 GOLD – 2.10 = 1073.50 Stocks started the day in positive territory but then slipped, and the decline coincided with a drop in oil prices, which also went from positive to negative. Oil prices have buckled following the breakdown of OPEC talks last week. We have a price war breaking out between Saudi Arabia and Iran and US shale producers. At the same time we have Russia, Venezuela, and Brazil all desperate for oil revenues.   But it’s not just oil; iron ore is moving in lockstep with oil, dropping to a 10-year low; Codelco, the Saudi Arabia of copper is refusing to cut output, betting it can outlast rivals and win market share. The major commodity indices have dropped to lows last seen in 1998.  While plummeting commodity prices can be a warning sign that the world economy is heading into recession, the latest sell-off has a different character. The slump is chiefly due to excess production, and amounts to a positive supply shock that should boost global recovery.     Dow Chemical and DuPont are in talks to combine, in what would be one of the largest deals of the year. Each company has a market value of about …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Glitch/Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 163 = 17,568 SPX – 22 = 2079 NAS – 57 = 5088 10 YR YLD un 2.27% OIL – .31 = 48.14 GOLD + 9.10 = 1100.50 SILV + .08 = 14.84   Well, this turned out to be an ugly week. The Dow lost 600 points from the high a week ago. The Dow lost 2.8% on the week, dropping below its 200 day moving average. The S&P lost 2.1%; Nasdaq down 2.2%. The Russell 3000 was down 3.1% for the week. Amazon gave back about half of yesterday’s gain. Crude oil hit a 4-month low.   And if you are not quite sure what to make of the markets, that is understandable; they aren’t going up and they aren’t going down, we are in a sideways market; this might be the mother of all sideways markets. The Dow is in slightly negative territory year to date. The Dow has moved on either side of breakeven 21 times so far this year. According to research from Bespoke Investment, no other year has been so fickle, the closest being the 20 times the blue chip index swung in both 1934 and 1994. The S&P 500 went through the first half of the year without moving more than 3.5 percent in either direction.   Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold …

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Financial Review

Spend Your Time Wisely

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P 500 is in the tightest trading range for the first half of a year in more than 2 decades. At some point it will break up or break down; as it is 2015 marks the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 2010.   For the month of June, the Dow fell 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. For the second quarter, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent. For the Dow and the S&P, that snaps a string of 9 consecutive quarters of gains. The Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in its tenth straight quarterly advance. During the quarter, the Nasdaq hit its first records since …

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Financial Review

Risk On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 154 = 18,140 SPX + 12 = 2110 NAS + 31 = 4955 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.13% OIL – .82 = 50.34   Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today for the latest round of emergency talks aimed at breaking the deadlock with Greece. Yesterday, Germany rejected a request by Athens to extend a loan program, calling the Greek proposal a Trojan horse. Now it looks like there will be an extension of the bailout loan agreement, probably for four months; the current deal was scheduled to expire on February 28th.   Euro zone officials said the accord required Greece to submit by Monday a letter to the Eurogroup listing all the policy measures it planned to take during the remainder of the bailout period, to ensure they complied with conditions. So, they haven’t worked out all the details or even come close to resolving the problems; they didn’t have to; they just needed to avoid making a big, irreversible mess of everything. So, they have hit the pause button. It might be the smartest thing they could have done.   Greece has a new government, barely one month on the job. It is not reasonable to expect the new government to have fully formulated all the details of a bailout and recovery plan. They might not come up with a decent plan after 3 or …

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Financial Review

Some Perspective on the Markets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 17,068 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 57 = 4547 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.07% OIL – .58 = 55.33 GOLD + 1.50 = 1196.00 SILV – .47 = 15.82 Allow me to provide some perspective. On December 5th the S&P 500 index hit an intraday high of 2079 and a closing high of 2075. That was 7 trading session in the past, which may be a long time if you are trading on the minute bars, but in the grander scheme of things it was just a few days ago. The downturn has been fast and sharp, as downturns are want to be. This downturn has lopped about 90 points off the S&P, or about a 4.3%; which does not qualify as a correction and certainly not a crash, but it does catch your attention.

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and …

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Financial Review

Forget Complacency

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 223 = 16,321 SPX – 31 = 1874 NAS – 62 = 4213 10 YR YLD closed 2.28% OIL – .69 = 85.05 GOLD + 14.10 = 1238.10 SILV + .10 = 17.60 The major indices were up and then down; small moves earlier in the session; then, in the final hour stocks slipped and kept falling. The S&P 500 has fallen 6.8 percent from its Sept. 18 record, making this the worst pullback in two-and-a-half years. The Russell 2000 sank 4.7 percent last week. The small-cap index entered a correction after sliding more than 10 percent from an all-time high in March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 5.5 percent from its record last month, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped 8.3 percent from a 14-year high reached in September. The Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 13 percent today to 24, the highest level since June 2012. Forget complacency. The final hour collapse coincided with a report that an Emirates Airline plane in Boston was surrounded by medical crews and they removed five passengers over concerns about Ebola. But there is more to today’s trading than an Ebola scare. Oil prices continued to slide. Saudi Arabia is saying they are comfortable with oil prices in the sub-$90 range. The Saudis don’t necessarily want prices to slide further, but they are unwilling to shoulder production cuts unilaterally and …

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