Financial Review

Sunshine Clean

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-17-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Talk of trade talks. Copper – the canary in the coal mine. Consumer sentiment slips. Short-termitis in earnings reports. Corporate governance. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-17-2018

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Financial Review

Six Straight

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-10-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks higher again. North Korea releases prisoners; summit planned. Israel and Iran. CPI inches higher – inflation is mild except for stuff you actually need. Earnings looking good. Google infuses AI into old apps. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-10-2018

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Financial Review

Sure, Why Not?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks higher. Oil higher. Dollar higher. Bond yields higher. PPI barely budges. Cohen selling access? California mandates solar. Earnings rolling in. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-09-2018

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Financial Review

C’est l’économie stupide

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-04-12-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:24 — 11.7MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Wall Street down today, up for the week. Oil down for the week, but gasoline prices head higher. Tax reform next week, if the government stays open. Existing home sales up. State by state unemployment rates lower in March. Fed’s Fischer sanguine on the economy. Exxon can’t drill in Russia. VW on probation. Extended audio analysis of the upcoming French election. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-21-2017

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Financial Review

Hippity Hoppity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-17-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Markets bounce after a couple of weak weeks. GDP forecasts slip. Earnings season kicks into gear. Where will earnings come from? Eurozone and emerging markets. Mnuchin: tax reform “not realistic”. United tops earnings forecast. Netflix beat earnings but missed on subs. HCA, not enough emergencies. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-17-2017

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Financial Review

The Wisdom of Solomon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-31-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Eurozone grows. BOJ stands pat. FOMC meets. Home sales up. Consumer confidence down. Deutsche Bank launders money. Apple beats, beats, beats. Exxon’s big impairment – not worth it to pull it out of the ground. Trump meets drugmakers. Tom Price did get a discount. OneWest did engage in robo-signings. Trump fires Yates. Trump names next justice. Hoping for Solomon. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-31-2017

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Financial Review

Dow 20K Redux

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1A-01-26-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:01 — 5.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Another record high close for the Dow. Earnings reporting in full bloom. J&J buys Actelion. Oprah ends world hunger. Jobless claims up. New home sales down. Tomorrow 4Q GDP. More on the wall. Mexico cancels meeting. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-26-2017

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Financial Review

Meh

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..A bad month for bonds. Qualcomm buys NXP. Alphabet/Google beats. Amazon misses. Deutsche Bank posts profit and angst. Wallonia relents. UK GDP grows. Durable goods orders fall. ZTO IPO thud. Exxon must turn over documents on climate change. The forecast for winter – warm and dry. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2016

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Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSResale home prices continue to rebound. New home sales up. Consumer confidence flat. Fed FOMC deliberates. Earnings galore but the big one is Apple, and it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Fiat fudged sales numbers. VW has a plan. Amazon has drones in the UK. You could fly around the world without using a drop of oil. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-26-2016

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Financial Review

The Rent is Too High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSAnother record high close for the Dow. Housing rebounds but the rent is too high. We spend more on drugs than groceries. IMF cuts forecast for global growth. Offshore oil (not what you think). Earnings reports from: Wells Fargo, Goldman, IBM, Microsoft, and more. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2016

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Financial Review

Don’t Drink the Water

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHome sales, earnings reports, bad car companies, and the latest from SCOTUS. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-20-2016

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Financial Review

Flip Flop Fedspeak

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-18-2016 DOW – 40 = 16,413 SPX – 8 = 1917 NAS – 46 = 4487 10 Y – .06 = 1.76% OIL – .12 = 30.54 GOLD + 22.30 = 1231.70 After spending 2015 calling for rate hikes St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday evening in a speech on monetary policy that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates given declining inflation expectations and recent equity market volatility. Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, said he now feels key assumptions supporting higher rates have been undermined. Bullard’s big concern is inflation expectations, and inflation has been trending lower, and Bullard believes stock market expectations have a big impact on inflation. In contrast to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen or Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Bullard doesn’t think labor market conditions have much impact on inflation as the traditional “Phillips curve” suggests.   Today, San Francisco Fed President John Williams gave a speech in LA, where he said the economy “is, all in all, looking pretty good.” Williams said his views of the economy haven’t changed much from December: “When I look at my December forecast and compare it with my outlook for unemployment and core inflation today, there’s virtually no change” Williams said he was aware of potential risks facing the economy but …

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Financial Review

Groundhog Day EP

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-02-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:26 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-02-2016 DOW – 295 = 16,153 SPX – 36 = 1903 NAS – 103 = 4516 10 Y – .10 = 1.86% OIL – 1.74 = 29.88 GOLD + 1.00 = 1130.00   A big move for stocks and bonds today. While a 295 point drop, or 1.8%, in the Dow will attract some headlines, we also saw a less flashy move in bonds, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries drop 10 basis points, to 1.86% – that’s a 5.2% drop. After hitting resistance levels from October, yields continued dropping to lows last seen in April.   Stocks moved lower again, following the trail of oil prices, which dropped 5.5% today to close below $30 a barrel. Not a big surprise because the trend has been lower, and a trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. We are definitely in a downtrend. The S&P 500 is now right at 10% below its May record, which means correction territory, not a  bear market, although many stocks in the S&P are in bear market territory –  specifically the energy stocks.  The rally last week looks like not much more than end-of-month reshuffling, which happened at the same time the Bank of Japan surprised the markets with negative interest rates, but the BOJ can’t announce negative interest rates every day.   Right now, any rally …

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Financial Review

Dark Clouds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-12-2016   DOW + 117 = 16,516 SPX + 15 = 4658 NAS + 47 = 4685 10 Y – .06 = 2.10% OIL – .67 = 30.74 GOLD – 7.70  = 1087.50 The recent sell-off on Wall Street has some of the investment banks worried. For the past 7 years, JPMorgan Chase has seen every dip in the market as a buying opportunity. Now they are changing their tune and advising clients to sell any rally. A report from JPMorgan’s chief equity strategist cites several areas that are raising red flags, including: deteriorating technical indicators, expectations of anemic corporate earnings combined with the downward trajectory in U.S. manufacturing activity and a continued weakness in commodities, with oil dropping under $20 a barrel.   RBS, the Royal Bank of Scotland, says investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slip as low as $10 a barrel. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.   Goldman Sachs is warning that global stock markets may get …

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Financial Review

Low Price Leader

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-14-2015 DOW – 157 = 16,924 SPX – 9 = 1994 NAS – 13 = 4782 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.98% OIL – .37 = 46.29 GOLD + 15.40 = 1185.30 SILV + .22 = 16.22   Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September. Auto sales were strong, up 1.7% last month. Sales at gas stations were down 3.2% because gas prices were lower. Sales fell at Internet retailers, general stores, home centers, groceries and outlets that sell appliances and electronics. Sales rose at restaurants. Excluding autos and gas, sales were flat. Retail sales have risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, though the gain is a healthier 4.9% if gasoline is omitted.   The producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.5% last month. In September the wholesale price of gas sank almost 17%, marking the sharpest decline since January. That drove down the overall cost of goods by 1.2%. The cost of services also fell by 0.4% last month, the biggest decline since February. Core producer prices, excluding the volatile categories of food, energy and trade fell a smaller 0.3% in September. Over the past year, overall producer prices have fallen an unadjusted 1.1%.   Inventories at U.S. businesses were flat in August. Business sales fell 0.6% in August, the biggest drop since January. The inventory-to-sales ratio, an …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:03 — 6.0MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 70 = 18,120 SPX + 16 = 2124 NAS + 64 = 5163 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + .13 = 51.04 GOLD – 4.30 = 1145.60 SILV – .12 = 15.08   The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, taking out the old record from last month. After hours of debate, Greek lawmakers passed a bailout agreement late last night. Eurozone finance ministers agreed in principle to extend a €7 billion-euro bridge loan to Greece. The loan would allow Greece to pay some of its outstanding bills, meet a scheduled repayment to the ECB next week and open the door to securing a third bailout package. Up next: the German Bundestag will vote on Friday whether or not to approve the new rescue, however, talks over securing a new €86B bailout are likely to last for another four weeks.  European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he views the country’s place in the euro as secure. Greek banks are still closed for the time being.   Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said once again that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that the first hike since 2006 “will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis.” Today, Yellen repeated her semi-annual testimony to …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,058 SPX + 4 = 2112 NAS + 20 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.95% OIL + 1.32 = 57.48   Record highs on Wall Street today. On March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq Composite Index reached an intraday high of 5,132 and closed at 5,048. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. The Nasdaq is now up 6.8% for 2015. The Nasdaq Composite now trades at 30 times earnings, versus a multiple of 190 in March 2000; not exactly a value play, but not dot-com frothiness. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high but could not take out the 2117 record close from early March.   The number of people who applied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits ticked up 1,000 to 295,000 in the week that ended April 18. Also, the government said continuing claims, which show the number of people already receiving weekly unemployment checks, rose 50,000 to 2.33 million in the week that ended April 11.   Sales of new single-family homes dropped 11.4% to 481,000 in March, hitting the slowest pace since November.  Sales of new single-family homes increased about 19% over the past year. However, sales still remain almost 40% below a long-term pace set over 20 years.   Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ …

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Financial Review

Jump Into Earnings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 17,949 SPX – 3 = 2097 NAS + 19 = 5014 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.92% OIL – 1.12 = 56.26 GOLD SILV This is one of the busiest weeks for earnings reports, so let’s jump in with both feet.   IBM delivered its 12th straight quarter of declining revenue, but they beat earnings expectations because they proved that even if they aren’t the masters of technology, they are masters of financial engineering; one way to boost earnings per share – reduce the shares outstanding with stock buybacks. At some point the strategy has a flaw, but that is for another day.   We’ve known that a stronger dollar would hurt US companies doing business overseas, but we rarely think about reversing that equation. The weaker euro boosted revenue at German business software maker SAP in the first three months of the year and drove operating profit up 15 percent. First-quarter revenue rose 22 percent to 4.5 billion euros, at the top of market forecasts. At constant exchange rates sales rose 10 percent.  First-quarter operating profit, excluding special items, rose to 1.06 billion euros ($1.13 billion), matching estimates. Excluding the effect of currencies, SAP’s operating profit dropped 2 percent.   Chip designer ARM Holdings supplies Apple’s iPhone. Arm said first quarter profits rose 24%, beating forecasts. Chief executive Simon Segars said: “As the world becomes more …

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Financial Review

A Low Bar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 208 = 18,034 SPX + 19 = 2100 NAS + 62 = 4994 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.90% OIL + .76 = 56.50 No major economic data published today. The global markets have been focused on China and Greece. China is changing regulations and adding stimulus to try and prop up the economy, even as some of their big real estate development companies are staring down defaults. The problem with Greece is that they are ready to default; payments are due at the end of the week and they are scrambling for cash. Perhaps more importantly, earnings season will kick into high gear this week. Maybe all that will take a backseat to a facedown off the shore of Yemen. The US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile cruiser into the waters near Yemen to conduct maritime security operations, and not to intercept Iranian arms shipments. It’s believed there are 9 US ships in the region, including cruisers and destroyers. It is further believed the Iranian Navy has sent up to 5 ships full of weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yea, what could go wrong?   Following soft GDP data last week, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5% yesterday, adding about $200 billion in liquidity for banks to lend. Last …

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Financial Review

Slow to Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,112 SPX + 10 = 2106 NAS + 33 = 5011 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.67 = 55.96 GOLD + 9.60 = 1202.50 SILV + .18 = 16.41   The Federal Reserve reports industrial production dropped 0.6% in March. The biggest drop since August 2012. For the first quarter, industrial production was down at 1% annual rate, the first quarterly decline since the end of the recession.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of home builder confidence increased to 56 in April from 52 in March. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good rather than poor. All three components of the index improved in the month: sales expectations, buyer traffic, and the component gauging current sales conditions all moved higher.   China grew at its slowest pace last quarter since the global financial crisis in 2009; GDP expanded 7% in the three months to March from the year ago period, down from 7.3% the prior quarter. Retail sales and industrial output data broadly missed expectations, however, with the latter expanding at the slowest pace since 2008.   Japan overtook China as the top foreign holder of US government debt for the first time since the global financial crisis. Each country holds a little more than $1.22 trillion in US Treasuries, but Japan has about …

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