Financial Review

Watching and Waiting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-13-2015   DOW – 49 = 17,081 SPX – 13 = 2003 NAS – 42 = 4796 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.05% OIL – .53 = 46.57 GOLD + 5.00 = 1169.90 SILV + .09 = 16.01   Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller have agreed on terms for a takeover, with the world’s largest brewer set to pay $106 billion. The deal brings one out of every three beers sold worldwide under a single company. Under terms of the agreement, AB InBev would pay a $3 billion break-up fee to SABMiller should the transaction fail to clear regulatory hurdles or shareholders don’t approve of it. If the deal goes through, it would be the biggest acquisition of the year, and the largest in British history. SABMiller’s two largest shareholders, Altria Group and Bevco Ltd., can receive cash and stock for their stakes, which account for 41 percent of the company. They won’t be able to sell the shares for five years; a move that might have tax benefits.   Dell’s $67 billion buyout of EMC appears to be a win for nearly everyone involved – except EMC bondholders. Investors in EMC’s $5.5 billion of bonds are down about $338 million since news of the deal first became public last week. Why’s that? Dell’s plan to raise about $50 billion in debt for the acquisition will push existing bondholders down …

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Financial Review

Anticipation of Consequences

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-08-2015 DOW + 138 = 17,050 SPX + 17 = 2013 NAS + 19 = 4810 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.11% OIL + 1.86 = 49.67 GOLD – 6.80 – 1140.00 SILV – .39 = 15.77   This morning was full of anticipation: earnings season scheduled to kick off after the closing bell, the FOMC scheduled to release minutes from their September policy meeting, the House of Representatives scheduled to select a new Speaker of the House. Wisdom consists of the anticipation of consequences.   Earnings season is underway; the unofficial start is when Alcoa reports; ticker symbol AA, they lead the pack alphabetically, and then it just became tradition. The company reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of 7 cents a share on revenue of $5.57 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated earnings of 13 cents a share on revenue of $5.66 billion. Alcoa indicated that China’s industrial economy is slowing more rapidly than expected, as the aluminum producer slashed its production outlook for the country for cars, trucks and construction. And just like that, we have a trend.   Short interest has hit a peak. Short interest on companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) just hit a seven-year high, going back to the 2008 financial crisis. Short interest, or a bet that prices will drop, tends to increase as stocks are falling, and …

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Financial Review

Close Calls

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-07-2015 DOW + 122 = 16,912 SPX + 15 = 1995 NAS + 42 = 4791 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.06% OIL – .47 = 48.06 GOLD – 1.80 = 1146.80 SILV + .17 = 16.15   The S&P 500 closed at its highest level in three weeks. The S&P 500 has been up for 6 out of the past 7 sessions.  The S&P is down 3.09 percent for the year and the Dow is off by 5.11 percent ytd.   Yesterday, oil prices jumped nearly 5% as the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.2 million barrel decrease in crude stocks last week. The International Energy Agency has said it expects world oil demand to increase by around 1.7 million barrels per day this year, one of the fastest rates for years as consumers respond to much lower fuel prices. The tightening market balance comes as U.S. production starts to decline. This morning, the Energy Information Administration reports global oil demand should increase by its fastest rate in six years in 2016, suggesting a surplus of crude is easing more quickly than expected. The EIA forecasts U.S. oil output will fall to 8.8 million barrels per day from an average of 9.25 million in 2015. But the EIA report also showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations …

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Financial Review

Because it’s Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-14-2015 DOW + 69 = 17,477 SPX + 8 = 2091 NAS + 14 = 5048 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.20% OIL – .10 = 42.13 GOLD + .10 = 1115.80 SILV – .18 = 15.34   For the week, the Dow rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 added 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.1 percent.   Wholesale prices climbed at a slower pace in July, as energy prices dropped. The 0.2 percent increase in the producer-price index followed a 0.4 percent gain in June. Even with the recent increases, producer prices dropped 0.8 percent over the past 12 months. Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent for a second month, and those costs were up 0.6 percent from July 2014.   Industrial production climbed 0.6% in July; there were also upward revisions of 0.1% each in February, May and June. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point to 78%. The auto sector posted a 10.6% surge in production.   Looking to capitalize on rising demand, General Motors has increased its rate of production on larger trucks and SUVs, and added Saturday overtime shifts at a Texas plant. The move could see 48,000 to 60,000 additional vehicles for the 2016 model year. Make hay while the sun shines.   The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged slightly lower to a reading of …

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Financial Review

Step 9

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 189 = 17,630 SPX + 25 =  2093 NAS + 49 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.25% OIL + .59 = 47.98 GOLD + 1.00 = 1096.50 SILV + .14 = 14.79   The Federal Reserve FOMC met today. They will meet again tomorrow and then they will issue a statement.  Investors are not expecting any major decisions this week, but they will be looking for hints on the Fed’s timing for possible future movements. While consensus for a rate rise is leaning towards September, the wild card is now China. A growing number of market watchers are suggesting that, before the year is out, two interest rate hikes rather than just one could be on the cards. In the Treasury market, futures contracts suggested that investors were making the same mistake they made at the outset of the last three major tightening cycles, by underestimating the amount the federal funds rate will be raised. The implied rate on September 2016 contracts is 0.8 percent, while many forecasts are looking at 1.5 percent to 2 percent.     Chinese shares whip-sawed between gains and losses today, as Beijing renewed its pledge to prop up an equities market. The 144 Chinese companies with primary stock listings in the US have erased nearly $40 billion in paper wealth since the Shanghai Composite peaked in mid-June; a 30% drop. After a …

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Financial Review

Burn the Doors

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 217 = 17,977 SPX + 22 = 2099 NAS + 73 = 5071 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.43% OIL – .35 = 51.85 GOLD – 5.30 = 1158.50 SILV – .12 = 15.60   Greece and Eurozone creditors reached a tentative agreement that might unlock about $95 billion in new aid to Greece in exchange for new tough concessions by the Athens government, which included reforms to the pension system, higher taxes, and privatization. However, the €85 billion-euro deal is not official until the Greek parliament on Wednesday passes the deal; and that might be a tough ask given the “no” vote in the recent referendum. Before we get to a Wednesday vote in Athens, there are several Eurozone finance ministers that will have to approve a €12 billion-euro package of short-term bridge financing, to allow the Greek banks to reopen. If the new deal is approved, the bank “holiday” could be lifted as soon as Thursday. And then after that, the Euro Union countries would have to sign off on a deal, unanimously. So, it’s a very complicated deal with considerable risk. Wall Street has never been good at reading the fine print, and stocks moved higher today on the idea that the never-ending negotiations over Greek debt might finally be ending, when in fact, they are just kicking into another gear.   And …

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Financial Review

Unsustainable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 93 = 17,776 SPX + 12 = 2081 NAS + 5 = 4997 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.23% OIL + .14 = 52.67 GOLD – 15.50 = 1155.30 SILV – .70 = 15.15   These are interesting times. There is the situation in Greece; the Chinese equity markets are suffering a bit of a meltdown; Puerto Rico has fallen into a black hole of debt; negotiations are underway with Iran; and the cherry on top – earnings season starts tomorrow. Traders might be forgiven if they were a feeling a little jittery. This morning the stock market headed into triple digit negative territory, (the Dow was down 200 points earlier) only to get an afternoon jolt of good news; namely, there may be a deal to be had with Greece. So, let’s dig in there.   Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for an emergency Eurozone summit. Over the weekend, Greeks overwhelmingly voted to reject more austerity. Actually, they voted on a debt proposal that is no longer under consideration, but figuratively they voted against austerity. Greek banks remain closed and ATMs are reportedly running out of cash. The European Central Bank has maintained its emergency loan cap for Greek banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was no basis for reopening negotiations with Athens. European leaders have all made clear the onus …

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Financial Review

The Moral and Economic Issue of Our Time

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 88 = 18,038 SPX + 10 = 2107 NAS + 21 = 5035 10 YR YLD + .06 = 1.98% OIL – .45 = 56.16 GOLD – 15.00 = 1187.80 SILV – .22 = 15.86   The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales increased 6.1% in March, the fastest pace of sales in 18 months. The jump in March sales follows a couple of slow months due, at least in part, to bad winter weather. But the latest figures suggest the mix of low mortgage rates, steady job creation and pent-up demand could push full-year sales to prerecession levels. Mortgage rates also are still near their lows for the year. The average interest rate on a fixed, 30-year mortgage was 3.67% last week, down from 4.27% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey.   Greece will not present a list of economic reforms to Eurozone finance ministers on Friday; the deadlines don’t really help and they might even hurt because they lead to brinksmanship in negotiations on what reforms the Syriza government in Greece needs to do to secure more funding. There are signs Greece’s creditors are curbing demands for far-reaching reforms as part of current talks, perhaps a realization that they can’t get blood from a turnip, but the softening stance comes on condition Greece stays co-operative on fiscal targets. The liquidity situation …

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Financial Review

Strange Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 80 = 17,977 SPX – 9 = 2092 NAS – 7 = 4988 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.94% OIL + .27 = 51.91 GOLD – 9.30 = 1199.00 SILV – .23 = 16.36   A down day as we head into earnings reporting season. S&P 500 earnings per share has come down 8% over the last three months to $around $117.50 from $119.50, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch. Analysts are projecting EPS to fall 4% to 6%, excluding the impact of stock buybacks. Earnings are taking a hit on two fronts: lower oil prices and a stronger dollar. The energy sector takes the lion’s share of the blame for the earnings decline. Excluding energy companies, first-quarter earnings growth would actually be slightly positive. The dollar’s rise over the past year will also have a significant impact as expectations for companies with sizable foreign sales have been revised down 13% year to date while those with sales concentrated in the US witnessed an upward revision.   The Energy sector is the biggest drag on the growth picture this quarter, with the sector’s earnings on track to be down -63.6% on -40.6% lower revenues. Excluding the drag from the Energy sector, total earnings for the S&P 500 index would be up +4.7% on +0.6% higher revenues, according to Zach’s Research. The best performing sector should be …

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Financial Review

How to Eat a Bank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 98 = 18,057 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 21 = 4995 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .99 = 51.78 GOLD + 13.80 = 1208.30 SILV + .34 = 16.59   For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains.   Oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The oil rally coincided with a stronger dollar, which weighs on dollar denominated commodities. In March, the prices the U.S. paid for imported goods and services fell for the eighth time in the last nine months, even though the cost of foreign oil actually rose for the second straight time. Import prices dropped 0.3% last month, or an even steeper 0.4% excluding fuel.   The sharply lower cost of imported goods is a double-edged sword. We may pay less for commodities and all sorts of goods such as cell phones and electronics; and that can stretch paychecks. Next Tuesday the Commerce Department reports on retail sales and we’ll find out if shoppers are in a spending mood or a savings mood. A strong dollar is also great if you plan to travel abroad; they say April in Paris is pretty nice. Yet the strong dollar also makes US goods and services …

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