Financial Review

Monday.

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 12 = 16,817 SPX – 2 = 1961 NAS + 2 = 4485 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.26% OIL – .52 = 79.92 GOLD – 5.90 = 1226.10 SILV – .10 = 17.21 In economic news: the National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales rose 0.3% in September, hitting the second highest level for this year. The index of pending home sales reached a seasonally adjusted 105 in September, compared with 104.7 in August. Slower price growth and more homes for sale are likely supporting pending home sales. Pending sales typically close within 2 months, and so this gauge augurs well for actual sales. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary or ‘flash’ services sector purchasing managers index slipped to 57.3 last month, the lowest reading since April, from 58.9 in September. A reading above 50 signals expansion in the services sector. The index has been gradually declining for 4 months. The October readings would indicate fourth quarter GDP slowing to about 2.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts revised their price outlook for oil; they are decidedly more bearish, predicting $75 a barrel for the first quarter and second half of next year. The thinking is that US shale oil will be enough to keep prices down, and non-OPEC countries will continue to provide plenty of supply, so even if OPEC wants higher prices, they will find it difficult. …

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Financial Review

A Boatload of Economic News and Earnings Reports

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 216 = 16,677 SPX + 23 = 1950 NAS + 69 = 4452 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.28% OIL + 1.33 = 81.85 GOLD – 9.10 = 1232.90 SILV + .02 = 17.30 The S&P 500 has risen five times in the past six days, pushing the gauge up 4.9 percent since Oct. 15 and recouping about half the losses from a selloff that began in mid-September; the S&P is still down about 3 percent from a record. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks deals involving mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said home prices in August were up 4.8% from the year-earlier period; and up a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in August from July. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.92 percent, down from 3.97 percent last week. The average 15-year rate dropped to 3.08 percent from 3.18 percent. Mortgage rates are now at the lowest levels since the summer of 2013. Refinancing applications jumped 23 percent in the week ended Oct. 17 to an 11-month high. The number of people who applied for US unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000, but initial claims remained below the key 300,000 level for the sixth straight week. The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.8% in September, after no change in August. The index points toward improving employment and income growth …

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Financial Review

Financial Engineers at the Gate

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-21-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 215 = 16,614 SPX + 37 = 1941 NAS + 103 = 4419 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL + .64 = 82.55 GOLD + 2.50 = 1250.40 SILV + .09 = 17.62 In economic news, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million, hitting the fastest pace in one year and rebounding from an unexpected drop in August. However, September’s pace of sales was down 1.7% from a year earlier. So, the housing market isn’t roaring, but lower interest rates managed to pull some buyers off the sidelines last month. Low interest rates are just part of the equation in the housing market; buyers also need to be employed. The Labor Department today released state unemployment numbers, and in 15 states, the unemployment rate is now under 5%; that list includes: North Dakota at 2.8%, South Dakota at 3.4%, Utah 3.5%, and Nebraska, Minnesota, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Vermont, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Dolorado, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Kansas. Georgia has the highest unemployment rate at 7.9%. Arizona made the bottom 10 with a 6.9% unemployment rate, a full percentage point higher than the national average. Reuters reported the European Central Bank was looking at buying corporate bonds as soon as December in its efforts to revive the Eurozone economy. The move to buy corporate …

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Financial Review

A Tale of Three Stocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-20-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 19 = 16,339 SPX + 17 = 1904 NAS + 57 = 4316 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.18% OIL – .21 = 81.85 GOLD + 8.70 = 1247.90 SILV + .16 = 17.53 A nice bounce in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite. For most of the session, the Dow was in negative territory, clawing its way to positive, barely. There are 3 stocks that had a compelling story today. We start with IBM, which reported its third-quarter results; a 10th consecutive period of falling sales, marked by weaker performance in growth markets. IBM said its long-standing forecast of earnings per share of $20 for 2015 is no longer achievable. IBM lowered its forecast for free cash flow. The company said it was selling its money-losing chip-making business to GlobalFoundries, a move to further cut costs and focus on its more profitable, faster-growing businesses. Once upon a time, IBM was a pioneer in advancing semiconductor technology, its manufacturing capability fell behind others that produced chips in large volume, but now they will have to pay GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion to take the chip division, while taking a $4.7 billion charge. IBM has been divesting slower-growing and unprofitable businesses, but like many older tech companies, it is caught in the middle; sloughing off the old and expensive without yet having a foothold in the new. Some customers are …

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Financial Review

Double Irish With a Side of Knowledge Box

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-14-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 5 = 16,315 SPX + 2 = 1877 NAS + 13 = 4227 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.20% OIL – 3.76 = 81.98 GOLD – 4.90 = 1233.20 SILV – .11 = 17.49 The Dow was down slightly, while the S&P and Nasdaq snapped a 3 day slide, but this was almost a quiet day; call it neutral. A follow-up on yesterday’s discussion of the 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 dropped down to the 200 day moving average on Friday (right around 1905), and then fell right through the trend line yesterday. We talked about the possibility of a bounce; and I don’t think today’s minor move qualifies as a bounce, even though it was a positive move. So, we are still waiting for a possible bounce. The 200 day moving average is a lagging indicator, and so for now, the trend line is still moving higher; which increases the prospects for a bounce. When the price drops below a declining 200 day moving average, it is considered extremely bearish and the probability of a bounce is very low. So, we wait for confirmation. It is earnings reporting season, and today’s reports feature the banks. We start with JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank by assets, reporting third quarter net income of $5.6 billion, or $1.36 per share, a big improvement from the same period last …

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Financial Review

The Only Winner is Gravity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 334 = 16,659 SPX– 40 = 1928 NAS – 90 =4378 10 YR YLD un 2.33% OIL – 2.96 = 84.35 GOLD + 2.10 = 1224.60 SILV – .03 = 17.45 Triple-digit swings in the stock market have become common in recent days. Just this week, the Dow jumped 274 points Wednesday, reversing a 272-point decline on Tuesday. We’ll talk about volatility in just a moment. In economic news: Germany’s exports sank 5.8 percent in August, the biggest monthly drop in five years. The figure raised concerns that Europe’s largest economy may fall into recession. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says Europe’s problems are structural, not cyclical and there can be no recovery without reforms. Draghi was speaking in New York; he said the Euro banking sector is still going through deleveraging; they are not lending; and there are limits to what the ECB can do to produce growth. And deflation is highly contagious. The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in the first week of October edged down by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000, holding below 300,000 for the fourth straight week. Jobless claims are now 21% lower compared to one year ago. What we are starting to see is that so many businesses fired workers during the downturn and they have been very slow to rehire or hire new workers, which means not …

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Financial Review

Thanks Hank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 272 = 16,719 SPX – 29 = 1935 NAS – 69 = 4385 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.35% OIL – 1.91 = 88.43 GOLD + 1.50 = 1209.30 SILV – .16 = 17.29 The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average last week and has yet to move back above that level. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 has been sliding for a few weeks, going back to September 19, which was the day of the Alibaba IPO, just coincidentally. The Dow is also trading below its 50 day moving average. Welcome to the start of earnings season. In the past 3 months the US dollar has jumped by 8% against the euro. That makes American goods more expensive relative to European goods. And it wasn’t just the dollar against the Euro, but against a basket of foreign currencies. It is estimated that a 5% rise in the dollar versus the euro results in a drop of about $1 for full-year Standard & Poor’s 500 Index per-share earnings; current estimates for the S&P are running around $118. Partly because of the dollar and the related decline in oil prices, earnings estimates have seen one of the largest downward revisions over the last few years aside from the weather-beaten first quarter of this year. Earnings-per-share are projected to have grown 4.9% in the third quarter, that’s down from 7.8% earnings …

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Financial Review

Be Careful Out There

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1_2-08-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:28 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08222014 LISTEN HERE DOW – 38 = 17,001 SPX – 3 = 1988 NAS + 6 = 4538 10 YR YLD un = 2.40% OIL – .46 = 93.50 GOLD + 4.30 = 1281.60 SILV un = 19.51 All three major indices posted gains for the week, with the Dow up 2%, the S&P up 1.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. It was the strongest week of gains for both the Dow and the S&P since April, and the third straight week of gains for all three indices. There is a lot to cover before we can wrap up the week. First we go to Jackson Hole Wyoming, where the Fed has been having a friendly get together of economists. Janet Yellen kicked off the event with a speech this morning. She said what you might expect: “There is no simple recipe for appropriate policy,” and she called for a “pragmatic” approach that gives officials room to evaluate data as it arrives without committing to a preset policy path. And she backed up her comments with a new tool, the Labor Market Conditions Index, which measures 19 labor market indicators, and it isn’t new data, just combining it all together, but it showed she is monitoring the data. Yellen referenced the possibility that labor markets may be a bit tighter than they seem and that the Fed may consider having to raise interest rates …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 – Congratulations Graduates, Yada, Yada, Yada

Congratulations Graduates, Yada, Yada, Yada by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 158 = 16,533 SPX + 15 = 1888 NAS + 34 = 4131 10 YR + .02 = 2.53% OIL – 33 = 103.74 GOLD – 2.40 = 1292.90 SIL  un = 19.49   Earnings season is winding down; about 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with profit growth this quarter of 5.5% and revenue up 2.8%. While more companies have topped earnings expectations than usual, fewer have beat on the revenue side. This has been an ongoing theme for corporate profits; bottom line growth without corresponding sales. If this formula sounds unsustainable, it is, unless there is some other factor pumping up the markets.   Follow-up from yesterday: China has signed a 30-year deal to buy Russian natural gas worth about $400 billion. The gas deal gives Moscow an economic boost at a time when Washington and the European Union have imposed visa bans and asset freezes on dozens of Russian officials and several companies over Ukraine. It allows Russia to diversify its markets for gas, which now goes mostly to Europe; essentially opening the door to Asia’s gas market and potentially closing the door on the petro-dollar.   The Federal Reserve today released the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Fed policymakers considered several approaches to tightening monetary policy, but decided to remain flexible; which is another way of saying QE is a big experiment and they are just hoping nothing explodes in their …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, April 23, 2014 – A Brilliant Future From Cool Ideas

A Brilliant Future From Cool Ideas by Sinclair Noe DOW – 12 = 16,501SPX – 4 = 1875NAS – 34 = 412610 YR YLD – .05 = 2.68%OIL – .2- = 101.55GOLD un 1284.70SILV + .06 = 19.55 It’s earnings season, and this is a chance to compare and contrast. This morning, Facebook posted earnings of $642 million in net income, or 25 cents a share, in the first quarter, versus $219 million, or 9 cents a share in the year ago period. Overall revenue grew 72% year-on-year to $2.5 billion in the first quarter, topping estimates. Facebook now has 1.28 billion active users, and more than 1 billion do their Facebook stuff on a mobile device. Then Facebook announced their Financial Director was resigning. Shares were up about 3%. Nobody puts on a better presentation than Apple, that’s how they grew to be the most valuable company in the world. Steve Jobs would walk out and announce Apple had created a new mp3 player, and also a new way to connect to the internet, and also a new camera. Wow, three new products, nope…, he would hold up the iPhone – just one very cool thing from Apple; tech geeks heads would explode. Today, Apple posted earnings of $10.2 billion or $11.62 a share, on revenue of $45.6 billion. Analysts expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $10.18 a share; Apple reported a 4.6% rise in March-quarter revenue to $45.6 billion; Apple sold 43.7 million iPhones in …

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