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Thursday, January 30, 2014 – Where Water Flows

Where Water Flowsby Sinclair Noe DOW + 109 = 15,848SPX + 19 = 1794NAS + 71 = 412310 YR YLD + .02 = 2.69%OIL + .59 = 97.95GOLD – 24.60 = 1244.10SILV – .57 = 19.24 Gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% pace in the fourth quarter of 2013, which was down from the 4.1% growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending rose at a 3.3 percent rate, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2010. Inventories increased $127 billion, the most since the first quarter of 1998. That added 0.42 percentage point to GDP growth. Inventories had risen $115 billion in the third quarter, contributing 1.67 percentage points to output. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a 2.8% rate, up from the third-quarter’s 2.5% rate. We might reasonably expect inventories to decline again in the first quarter. Consumption in the fourth quarter came at the expense of saving. The saving rate slowed to 4.3% in the fourth quarter from 4.9 % in the prior period. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation rose at a tepid 0.8% rate. That was a sharp slowdown from the 3.0% pace in the third quarter. Income is one of the biggest constraints on growth. Exports rose at their fastest pace in three years. Exports combined with declining petroleum imports helped narrow the trade deficit. Business spending on equipment accelerated at a 6.9% rate in the fourth quarter after rising at only a 0.2% pace in the prior three months, …

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Wednesday, January 15, 2014 – A Few Pages of Pork

A Few Pages of Pork by Sinclair Noe DOW + 108 = 16,481SPX + 9 = 1848.38NAS + 31 = 4214 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.88%OIL + 1.75 = 94.34GOLD – 3.00 = 1243.00SILV – .05 = 20.30 The S&P 500 hit a record high close, just a few pennies better than December 31st. The market has had a weak start to January but we’re still at elevated levels. The Dow Industrials are about another day like today away from records; that close was 16,576 on New Year’s Eve. A $1.1 trillion compromise spending bill that funds the government through September won approval today from the House of Representatives and now goes to the Senate for consideration. The Senate is expected to also pass the so-called “omnibus” bill and send it to President Barack Obama to be signed into law. The 1,582-page bill eases most of the automatic spending cuts that were part of the sequester and keeps the federal government funded through Sept. 30. The budget bill calls for 1% increases in the paychecks of federal workers and military personnel, the first raises in three years for most agency workers. The spending measure also would protect disabled veterans and some military spouses from a pension cut set to go into effect in 2015.The bill would provide nearly $92 billion for US military operations abroad, mostly in Afghanistan, plus about $7 billion for disasters and other emergencies. That was just slightly less than last year’s war spending but …

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Tuesday, July 09, 2013 – What’s It All About?

What’s It All About? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,300SPX + 11 = 1652NAS + 19 = 3504 10 YR YLD -.01 = 2.63%OIL + 1.38 = 104.52GOLD + 13.40 = 1251.70SILV + .18 = 19.36 It’s earnings reporting season. The stock market is feeling happy for the moment. Second quarter earnings are expected to be soft, but expectations have been ratcheted down, so there is potential for upside surprises. That’s the game that’s played on Wall Street to siphon a little bit of trading profit. Anywhere else, they’d call it price fixing. But this game of diminished expectations may have some basis in reality. The top line numbers more than likely suck. Analysts expect the 30 companies in the Dow Industrial Average to see revenue growth of just 0.7%; that number could be ratcheted down into negative territory; that follows a 0.6% drop in revenue in the first quarter. What do you call it when there are two consecutive quarters of economic contraction? Recession. That’s a bit of a non sequitur, but the logical conclusion is not too far removed from the premise. After all, we’re talking about 30 of the biggest, most powerful companies in the world and they are struggling to grow sales. They’re still reporting profits, but that comes from cost cutting, which tends to fall on the labor force. There are limits to cost cutting as a business strategy for growing profits. No worries. The S&P 500 closed above 1650 and looks poised …

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Friday, April 12, 2014 – Trade Secrets

Trade Secrets by Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.08 = 14,865SPX – 4 = 1588NAS – 5 = 329410 YR YLD – .07 = 1.72%OIL – 2.85 = 90.66GOLD – 84.00 = 1478.00SILV – 1.81 = 25.95 The S&P 500 is up about 2.4 percent for the week, and the Dow up about 1.8 percent and Nasdaq up about 2.4 percent. The S&P has only had two weeks in 2013 with bigger gains. For the year, the Dow has gained more than 13 percent and the Nasdaq is up 8.7 percent. Retail sales fell in March for the second time in three months and consumer confidence dropped in April. Sales fell 0.4 percent in March. Consumer spending was considerably weaker in the first quarter than estimated. Core sales, which strip out cars, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.2 percent last month. This measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of the government’s measure of gross domestic product. It is widely believed that the end of the payroll tax holiday is related to the drop in consumer spending. Going a step further, growth is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter largely because fiscal policy tightened further in March. A separate report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan shows the consumer sentiment index dropping ot 72.3 in April, the lowest level since last summer. Producer prices, or prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.6 percent in March, their biggest drop in 10 months, as gasoline prices tumbled. In the 12 months …

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Monday, April 08, 2013 – Cat Food Futures Soar on Chained CPI

The Wealth Protection Conference was a bundle of fun. The whole thing was recorded on 9 CDs. You can order the CD recordings (or MP3 recordings are less expensive). Call Resource Consultants at 800-494-4149. Cat Food Futures Soar on Chained CPI by Sinclair Noe DOW + 48 = 14,613SPX + 9 = 1563NAS + 18 = 322210 YR YLD + .04 = 1.79%OIL +.82 = 93.52GOLD – 9.60 = 1573.70SILV – .05 = 27.40 The S&P 500 fell 1 percent last week as US payrolls had the smallest gain in nine months in March. The economy added 88,000 jobs in March, even though prior month job gains were revised higher; the unemployment rate dipped to 7.6%, mainly because more people left the labor market and are no longer counted for one reason or another. The idea is that some people just retire, or other people just can’t find a job, so they drop out of the workforce. One reason that so many people are just dropping out of the workforce now is the shortening of the period of extended unemployment benefits. As long as people are receiving unemployment insurance they have to be looking for work. When their period of eligibility ends, most people just drop out of the labor force. The period of extended benefits was shortened in most states at the end of 2012. As a result, many people went from being classified as unemployed (no job, but looking for work) to being out of the labor force …

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