Financial Review

Earning Season and Crazy Season

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Earnings continue to pour in hot. Comcast passes on 21st Century Fox. Trade war tensions. Trump influences Fed. Invites Putin to White House. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2018

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Financial Review

And Its Discontents

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Wall Street rallies. Waiting on earnings. Consumer borrowing spikes. Buybacks spike. US-China trade war, history suggests pain. Soft v hard Brexit triggers resignations. The state of oil. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-09-2018

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Financial Review

Buckle Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-29-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks and bonds drop. A busy week on tap: SOTU, FOMC, earnings season, Jobs Report Friday. Consumer spending up, consumer savings down. Dr. Pepper and coffee. More M&A. Crypto-heist in Japan. McCabe out. Wynn in hot water. Falcon Heavy and other Musk flamethrower. Tax day cometh. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-29-2018

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Financial Review

Number 9

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Another Dow record, #9. Goldman says unemployment rate could hit 3.8%. Consumer credit hits a new high. Merger Monday. Earnings news roundup. How your phone measures. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-07-2017

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Financial Review

Quads

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all close at record highs. Passive investors continue to add money. Big money pros still act skittish. Earnings looking good for now. CBO scores repeal only and it is ugly. House tries a reset with the budget. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2017

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Financial Review

A Deluge and an Eclipse

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-27-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Earnings flood: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Intel, Starbucks, UPS, Ford, American Air, Southwest, etc. ECB holds steady. Trump will stay in Nafta. West Virginia moves to renewables. An eclipsing stamp. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-27-2017

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Financial Review

Oh Canada

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high; 17 years to cross 6,000. Earnings drive the market: McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, AT&T, 3M, Chipotle. Panera delivers. Wells and Citi face angry shareholders. Trade war with Canada over lumber. Mexican tuna is safe. Judge blocks sanctuary city order. Consumer confidence dips. New and existing home sales rise. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-25-2017

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Financial Review

Nobody Knows Normalization

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-12-2016   DOW + 313 = 15,973 SPX + 35 = 1864 NAS + 70 = 4337 10 Y + .10 = 1.75% OIL + 2.77 = 28.98 GOLD – 9.40 = 1238.00 The Nikkei Stock Average finished down 11% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since October 2008. For the day, the index ended off 4.8% at 14,952, the lowest since October 2014. The Nikkei is down 21% year-to-date. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a meeting with his top financial diplomat today, as well as the BOJ’s governor, following a report that the “architect of Abenomics” called for a Group of 20-wide response to the recent market rout. Friday’s high-level gathering came as the country’s stock markets plunged again and the yen hit highs not seen since October 2014. Speculation is also rampant that Tokyo could conduct yen-selling intervention.     The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese companies trading in Hong Kong fell 2% Friday and was off 6.8% for the week. Trading was halted on the Kosdaq, the smaller cap, tech focused exchange in South Korea as the index dropped by more than 8%.     Here in the US, we’re not quite in bear territory for the major indices: the Nasdaq dropped 18% from last summer’s high; the S&P 500 dropped 15% from last year’s high.     And then …

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Financial Review

Solid Guesses

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 17,751 SPX + 15 = 2108 NAS + 22 = 5111 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.28% OIL + .91 = 48.89 GOLD + 1.20 = 1097.70 SILV + .13 = 14.91   The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting wrapped up earlier today. They issued a statement but there was no press conference. The Fed did not change monetary policy; no surprise, nobody expected a change from this meeting. The next FOMC meeting is in September and we might see changes then, or maybe December. There really weren’t many clues in the statement. There were a few subtle changes in wording of the statement; specifically on jobs, the Fed said: “The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year.” “Solid job gains” is a fairly strong phrase for the Fed. No indication of slack in the labor market.   The actual decision to raise rates will come when the Fed sees “some” further improvement in the labor market. The word “some” was new. What does “some” mean? You can give it whatever meaning you want but I think it means the labor market is headed in the right direction and as long as it stays on the tracks and continues to …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies in the Land of No Satisfaction

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 100 = 17,484 SPX + 11 = 2023 NAS – 2 = 4620 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + 1.69 = 78.88 GOLD – 28.20 = 1141.00 SILV – .72 = 15.42 Record highs for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. The midterm election is history, and it was a big night for the GOP. Republicans will have at least 52 Senate seats, a gain of 7. In the House, the GOP will now have at least 243 seats, a gain of 14. The GOP also gained 2 net governorships. So it was a big night. However, Obama was not on the ballot, even though some of the campaign ads made it sound that way; he’s got 2 more years and he still has veto power. It takes a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate to override a veto. Republicans have nowhere near two-thirds of either chamber. So, get ready for 2 more years of gridlock. One takeaway is that people are not satisfied with the economic progress of the past few years. While Wall Street is at record highs and the unemployment rate has dropped, that just isn’t enough. Fewer people participated in stock market gains and even though more people have jobs, the jobs aren’t paying what they used to. It doesn’t mean the numbers are wrong; the Dow closed at 17,484 and …

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Financial Review

The Only Winner is Gravity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 334 = 16,659 SPX– 40 = 1928 NAS – 90 =4378 10 YR YLD un 2.33% OIL – 2.96 = 84.35 GOLD + 2.10 = 1224.60 SILV – .03 = 17.45 Triple-digit swings in the stock market have become common in recent days. Just this week, the Dow jumped 274 points Wednesday, reversing a 272-point decline on Tuesday. We’ll talk about volatility in just a moment. In economic news: Germany’s exports sank 5.8 percent in August, the biggest monthly drop in five years. The figure raised concerns that Europe’s largest economy may fall into recession. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says Europe’s problems are structural, not cyclical and there can be no recovery without reforms. Draghi was speaking in New York; he said the Euro banking sector is still going through deleveraging; they are not lending; and there are limits to what the ECB can do to produce growth. And deflation is highly contagious. The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in the first week of October edged down by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000, holding below 300,000 for the fourth straight week. Jobless claims are now 21% lower compared to one year ago. What we are starting to see is that so many businesses fired workers during the downturn and they have been very slow to rehire or hire new workers, which means not …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Friday, May 02, 2014 – April Jobs Report

April Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW – 45 = 16,512SPX – 2 = 1881NAS – 3 = 412310 YR YLD – .01 = 2.59%OIL + .57 = 99.99GOLD + 15.70 = 1301.60SILV + .44 = 19.56 Today is another Jobs Report Friday. We will go into quite a bit of detail here because really, most everything we talk about in regard to economics begins with work and jobs. It is my hope that you will join us here on the first Friday of each month to get your comprehensive, fact based coverage of the jobs report. Last month the economy added 288,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%. April marked the biggest monthly gain in jobs since January 2012, when the economy added 360,000 jobs. Employment gains for February and March were revised higher by a combined 36,000; that raised the monthly average to 214,000 jobs a month since the start of the year. Through the first 4 months of 2014, the economy has added 857,000 payroll jobs, slightly better than the first 4 months of 2013, despite the harsh winter this year. In the current 58 month expansion, employers have added more than 200,000 jobs per month in 38% of the months. Current job creation performance is stronger than it was in the business-cycle expansion that occurred during the recovery in the early 2000s, even when a real estate construction bubble fueled growth.  Today’s job creation pace lags well behind previous recent economic recoveries, …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Tuesday, April 29, 2014 – Lowering the Bar

Lowering the Barby Sinclair Noe DOW + 86 = 16,535SPX + 8 = 1878NAS + 29 = 410310 YR YLD + .02 = 2.69%OIL – .12 = 100.72GOLD – .40 = 1296.90SILV – .13 = 19.54 The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for February showed prices up 12.9% from February a year ago, that’s down from the 12-month advance of 13.2% reported in January. The index tracks existing home sales in 20 major metropolitan areas, and this economic report tends to lag, plus it is a 3-month moving average of prices; so maybe we could be seeing one of the last reports to reflect bad winter weather. Home prices fell in 13 of the 20 cities in February compared with the previous month, and it wasn’t just cold weather cities; prices in Las Vegas dipped 0.1% in February from the previous month, the city’s first monthly decline in nearly two years; home prices fell 1.6% in Cleveland and 0.7% in Tampa, Florida. Las Vegas still posted the biggest 12-month gain, with an increase of 23.1%. The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes dipped to 82.3 from an upwardly revised 83.9 in March; still, very near a 6-year high. A new report today from the National Employment Law Project finds that as the economy has inched toward recovery, low-wage jobs have returned far more quickly than middle- or high-income work. The report’s finding shows how the housing sector in particular is a key middle-income employer that has failed to rebound. …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – Metric Disconnects

Metric Disconnects by Sinclair Noe DOW + 31 = 15451SPX + 4 = 1694NAS + 14 = 368410 YR YLD + .11 = 2.71%OIL + .42 = 106.53GOLD – 15.90 = 1322.40SILV + .03 = 21.56 Retail sales rose 0.2% in July, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June; retail sales are now up for 4 consecutive months. The retail sales report is important because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy. We’ve heard that so frequently that it sounds like a cliché, but when we spend, that money circulates through the economy and it is the vital life blood of the economy. Areas showing gains included restaurants and bars, grocery stores and sporting goods outlets. Within general merchandise, department stores showed a 0.6 percent increase in sales last month Another Commerce Department report today showed inventories at US companies were little changed. Merchants had enough goods on hand to last 1.29 months at the current sales pace in June. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Dennis Lockhart says he thinks policy makers should move cautiously this year to scale back its bond buying program. Lockhart says the Fed might make its first reduction before the end of the year, maybe as soon as September, and that it should be thought of as a cautious first step. So, Lockhart was a bit more dovish than other Fed policy makers of late, and as he made the comments, small losses on Wall Street gave way to modest gains. The …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 – Woman Gives Birth to a Baby

Woman Gives Birth to a Baby by Sinclair Noe DOW + 22 = 15,567SPX – 3 = 1692NAS – 21 = 3579 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51%OIL + .09 = 107.00 GOLD + 12.50 = 1348.70SILV – .05 = 20.59 The Dow Industrial Average hit a new record high close. The S&P 500 was down slightly after four straight gains, including a record high yesterday. It’s still earnings reporting season, and the big report today came after the close of trade. Apple reported better than expected sales and profits. Generally, we’re seeing revenues are coming in pretty lackluster and profits seem to be doing a little better than gains in sales. In the first quarter of 2013, we saw an interesting and unexpected development. While the corporate earnings of S&P 500 companies were better than expected, their revenues weren’t nearly as impressive.  Just 46% of S&P 500 companies reported revenues above estimates. And the second-quarter corporate earnings might be similar, if not worse. Keep in mind that before second-quarter earnings season began, we had 87 S&P 500 companies issue negative earnings guidance. The information technology and consumer discretionary sectors of the S&P 500 had the largest number of companies issuing negative guidance about their corporate earnings relative to their five-year average. Many stock advisors are staying optimistic and not taking into consideration the reliability of corporate earnings. Consider the Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment index. It has been increasing for three consecutive periods and is closing in on highs …

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Uncategorized

Diminished Expectations by Sinclair Noe (to listen to Financial Review audio visit MoneyRadio.com) DOW – 110 = 13,473SPX – 14 = 1441NAS – 47 = 306510 YR YLD – .03 = 1.72%OIL – .23 = 92.16GOLD – 11.60 = 1764.90SILV – .08 = 34.00PLAT – 8.00 = 1692.00 On this day five years ago, the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs; the Dow closed at 14,164 and the S&P 500 closed at 1,545. The Dow is currently 4 percent below that peak, the S&P is 7 percent below its record. So, will the current cyclical bull market end tomorrow? It’s not a crazy question; it happened on this date 5 years ago. It looked a little like it today. It’s earnings reporting season. Back in July, analysts said they expected Alcoa to report earnings of 12 cents per share, then expectations were lowered and now the hope was for break even. Alcoa reported a net loss of $143 million, or 13 cents per share, compared with a profit of $172 million, or 15 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue decreased 9 percent to $5.83 billion from $6.42 billion a year ago. The first report I read on Alcoa earnings after the close said, Alcoa reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations. Excluding charges from the settlement of a civil lawsuit and environmental remediation of a New York state river, earnings were 3 cents per share. Here’s the thing; lawsuits and environmental remediation are …

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Uncategorized

January, Thursday 12, 2012

DOW + 21 = 12471SPX + 3 = 1295NAS + 13 = 272410 YR YLD +.03 = 1.93%OIL –1.65 = 99.22GOLD + 5.60 = 1649.60SILV + .28 = 30.35PLAT + 2.00 = 1504.00 In 2011, the market value of U.S. stocks went nowhere from the first trading day, January 3, to the last trading day, December 30. And I mean absolutely nowhere. The S&P 500 started the year at 1,257.64 and ended the year at 1,257.60. While the market value of the S&P 500 was going absolutely nowhere, its valuation was plummeting. S&P 500 trailing 12-month earnings (through September 30, 2010) started last year at $79 a share and ended the year at $94.64 per share. That means earnings grew at nearly 20%, but prices went nowhere. In fact, prices have gone nowhere for the past 12 years. That’s not exactly true – we are pretty much where we were 12 years ago, but prices moved quite a bit in between. We get into overbought and oversold positions. The question is: where can we find opportunity? Standard & Poor’s classifies every individual stock into one of ten primary sectors. They then publish specific indexes for each sector (as well as dozens of sub-sectors within the ten primaries). The worst performing S&P sectors for 2011 Financials (-18.4%), Materials (–11.6%), and Industrials (-2.19%). The top performers included Utilities, consumer staples, and health care. Only 3 of the ten sectors were down but the S&P 500 is capitalization weighted; that means each stock …

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