Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after two …

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Financial Review

Black Monday + 28

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2015 DOW + 14 = 17,230 SPX + 0.55 = 2033 NAS + 18 = 4905 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.03% OIL – 1.07 = 46.19 GOLD – 7.10 = 1171.60 SILV – .20 = 15.93   Twenty-eight years ago today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed; a one day loss of 508 points, or 22.6%, down to 1,738 on what is now referred to as Black Monday. It was by far the largest one-day percentage drop in US stock market history.   China’s economy grew 6.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, beating forecasts for 6.8% growth. The results add to doubts the country can meet its year-end GDP target of about 7%, and raises pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures following a summer stock market plunge and devaluation of the yuan. Most China analysts also feel the GDP number is fictional, probably more like 3% than 6.9%, but it’s still the slowest growth since 2009.  China has been cutting its holdings of US Treasuries for the first time since 2001, but so far demand remains strong from other foreign investors and American investors.   Last month, Chinese President Xi Jingping visited Washington and an agreement was announced that China and the US would refrain from cyberattacks by each country on the other or on companies domiciled in the respective countries. Yeah, not so much. Security …

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Financial Review

No Wagering

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-16-2015 DOW + 74 = 17,215 SPX + 9 = 2033 NAS + 16 = 4886 10 YR YLD un =  2.02% OIL + .88 = 47.26 GOLD – 5.70 = 1178.70 SILV – .09 = 16.13   World markets extended a rally that has added $4.1 trillion to global equities this month, following a slew of weak economic reports that have dashed expectations for a Fed rate hike in 2015. European stocks are up, and Asian stock markets added to the gains which saw equities close at two-month highs; the Shanghai Composite gained 6.5% for the week. After a rebound yesterday, Wall Street recorded its third straight winning week. The Dow and S&P were up just under 1% on the week; the Nasdaq was up 1.7%. The rally over the past three weeks has been very narrow, as two thirds of the stocks on the S&P 500 are still below the 200-day moving average. Historically, October may be one of the worst months for stocks, but not in recent years and not so far this month.   Industrial production fell 0.2% in September, in line with expectations, and capacity utilization declined. The only major market group to post a gain in September was consumer goods. Capacity utilization fell to 77.5% from an upwardly revised 77.8% in August, a bit above the 77.4% expected.   Consumer sentiment rose in October …

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Financial Review

Sliding Into the Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-03-20015   DOW + 23 = 16,374 SPX + 2 = 1951 NAS – 16 = 4733 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – .12 = 46.63 GOLD – 8.70 = 1126.00 SILV + .03 = 14.83   Wall Street started the session on a high note, but could not hold it. Stocks slipped into the close and the Nasdaq turned red for the day. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the tomorrow morning’s August employment report, even though the month has typically been cursed by disappointment. The consensus guesstimate calls for about 215,000 to 220,000 new jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.3%, but August is notorious for misses. From 2005 to 2014, forecasters have over-estimated the initial August payrolls print seven times, including in each of the past four years. What’s more, the Labor Department (excluding annual and benchmark revisions) has marked up its first estimate in subsequent months in eight of the past 10 years. Part of the puzzle of forecasting August payrolls is the difficulty in adjusting for annual changes in the school-year calendar. Financial-market turmoil, at least, probably did little to impact hiring decisions in August. The government surveys households and businesses in the week that contains the 12th of the month, so the data will reflect responses covering the Aug. 9-15 period; that was a few days before the market rollercoaster …

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Financial Review

Place Your Bets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 113 = 17,904 SPX + 11 = 2096 NAS + 25 = 5055 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.32% OIL + .50 = 60.02 GOLD – 4.70 = 1182.50 SILV – .06 = 16.11   The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee is meeting to determine monetary policy. Tomorrow they will issue a statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference. Nobody expects the Fed to change policy tomorrow but they will probably signal that they are looking to raise interest rates at the FOMC’s September meeting, with a few qualifiers: if the labor market continues to improve, if mild inflation does not turn into deflation, if global markets don’t melt down, if the dollar remains well behaved. And then, over the next few weeks, the policymakers will talk about how the rate hike will be small and measured.   Of course we have to wait to hear from the Fed but the markets have placed their bets. Global investors have been moving out of equities and into cash. Cash levels rise to 4.9 percent of portfolios, up from 4.5 percent in May; the proportion of investors’ overweight equities falls to net 38 percent from 47 percent. The proportion of investors expecting to underweight global emerging markets surges to a net 21 percent from net 6 percent in May. The U.S. dollar is the …

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Financial Review

Tomorrow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 17,905 SPX – 18 = 2095 NAS – 40 = 5059 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL – 1.66 = 57.98 GOLD – 8.60 = 1177.40 SILV – .40 = 16.18   The sun will come out tomorrow, beyond that we don’t have much certainty. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the markets. Greece is scheduled to make a debt payment to the IMF; that will not happen. OPEC meets tomorrow in Vienna; they are expected to leave the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day unchanged. And in the US, we have a Jobs Report Friday; the Labor Department is expected to report the economy added about 225,000 new jobs in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.4%. Any one of these three events could result in major market moves. So buckle your seat belts.   This morning the Labor Department reported the number of people seeking unemployment benefits at the end of May remained near a 15-year low. Some 276,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims in the period running from May 24 to May 30, a week that included the Memorial Day holiday. That was down 8,000 from the prior week.   In addition to the headline numbers in the Jobs Report, we will be looking to see if wages are actually increasing; …

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Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data came …

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Financial Review

Another Record

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 13 = 18,312.39 (record) SPX – 1 = 2127 NAS – 8 = 5070 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.26% OIL – 2.17 = 57.26 GOLD – 17.80 = 1209.00 SILV – .61 = 17.17   Record high for the Dow Industrials.   Construction starts on new U.S. homes was up 20% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million. That’s the biggest monthly percentage gain in over 24 years and the highest level since November 2007.  Total housing starts remain far below an average pace of about 1.5 million over the 20 years leading up to the housing bubble’s 2006 peak.   A board member of the European Central Bank says the ECB will “frontload” its asset purchases in May and June – that is, step up buying in those months – to maintain its monthly average of $67 billion, given an expected drop in liquidity in the summer vacation period. The policymaker also said the recent selloff in German bunds and other sovereign bonds is not a cause for concern but the rapidity of the move is worrying.   Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told a Greek TV channel last night that Greece is “very close” to a deal, other officials are less enthusiastic. European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker said this morning that there will be no agreement for Greece at this week’s summit. At …

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Financial Review

Transitory, Not Terminal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 11 = 18,116 SPX – 3 = 2104 NAS – 15 = 5010 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91% OIL + .88 = 47.45 GOLD + 6.90 = 1190.30 SILV + .25 = 17.08   The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still above 18,000. The Nasdaq Composite is above 5,000. The Russell 2000 is near record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Composite, which dipped below 17,000 early in the year, took about a month to surge from 18,000 to 19,000 and is now rapidly approaching the 20,000 level; heights that haven’t been seen since 2000. Germany’s DAX recently traded above 12,000 for the first time and is up nearly 30 percent from the lows set earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is over 7,000, at its highest level in 15 years. Central bank monetary easing seems to be having the desired effect of pumping up financial assets around the globe, and even if the Fed is talking about hiking rates in the US, we haven’t seen a serious rate hike tantrum on Wall Street, yet.   U.S. home resales rebounded less than expected in February. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units. Inventories are tight and also sales were hurt by harsh winter weather in the Northeast, where sales dropped 6.5%; sales were up 5.7% …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 117 = 17,959 SPX – 10 = 2089 NAS + 9 = 4992 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.97% OIL – .81 = 43.85 GOLD + 4.10 = 1172.00 SILV+ .22 = 16.21   The Federal Reserve wrapped up a two-day FOMC meeting yesterday; and the stock market responded with a rally; the dollar dropped initially. After a day of consideration, stocks slipped and the dollar clawed back gains.  Oil prices rose yesterday and dropped again today. You could make the case that the Fed has maintained an overly accommodative monetary policy for too long, or you could argue that the economy will take a hit if the Fed hikes interest rates too soon. The Fed removed its pledge to be patient in tightening policy, while also cutting its forecast for the economy. Go figure.   Initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 in the period stretching from March 8 to March 14.  New claims have tracked below 300,000 for the second straight week after spiking to a 10-month high of 325,000 at the end of February in what now appears to have been weather-related quirk.   The Commerce Department said the current account gap, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, increased to $113 billion from a $98 billion deficit in the third …

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