Financial Review

Count Your Pants and Shirts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEGH_1-02-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow hits 10th straight record. Thus spake Mnuchin. How to create jobs. Oil inventories slim down. More jobs in wind than oil. XOM de-books oil reserves. US-Europe flights for $65. McDonald’s soda for one buck. Ghosn gone. Earnings reports. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-23-2017

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Financial Review

Flying Burritos in the Matrix

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSECB stands pat. Phoenix real estate: inventories up. Oil prices: inventories down. Mario goes mobile. PlayStation Slim. More M&A. Flying burritos. BAML thinks we’re in the matrix. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-08-2016

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Financial Review

Bon Appetit

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-06-2016 DOW – 252 = 16,906 SPX – 26 = 1990 NAS – 55 = 4835 10 Y – .07 =  2.18% OIL – 1.98 = 33.99 GOLD + 16.30 = 1094.80   Sometimes the world can be a messy place. Global markets get discombobulated. That has been the case in the first few trading days of the year. Saudi Arabia and Iran are about as friendly as cats and dogs, China’s economic growth is grinding slower, and then, in left field, North Korea drops a bomb, or at least tests a bomb, maybe.   North Korea announced that scientists had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a magnitude 5.1 earthquake was triggered near North Korea’s nuclear test site in the northeast of the country, but could not confirm that it was related to an H-bomb test.   China’s central bank set the yuan’s reference rate at an unexpectedly weak level, a reminder of the shock depreciation in August that sparked a wave of financial-market turmoil. Chinese media said that last summer’s selling ban on major shareholders would remain in place until the government publishes new rules on such sales.  The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.3 percent. Emerging-market stocks dropped to a six-year low and developing-nation currencies declined versus the dollar, while shares in Europe resumed losses after closing higher on Tuesday. Investors are …

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Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published …

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Financial Review

Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-06-2015   DOW – 120 = 17,419 SPX – 16 = 2083 NAS – 83 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .31 = 44.84 GOLD + 5.00 = 1090.50 SILV + .06 = 14.76   Jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 270,000 in the week ended August 1. Firings are at historically low levels as employers hold on to more workers. More hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate this year. Claims have remained below the 300,000 level since March.   Outplacement consult Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports employers announced 105,696 layoffs last month. A year ago, U.S. companies announced plans to cut 46,887 jobs. The Army accounted for more than half of the total with 57,000 cuts expected over the next two years. The technology sector also contributed to July’s announced job reductions, with computer and electronics companies announcing 18,891 layoffs in July.   Tomorrow is the big monthly jobs report; and it probably represents the most important data the Fed will consider before the September 17 FOMC meeting. And the Fed will need to communicate any action beforehand to avoid disruption in the financial markets. We may be seeing a rate hike being priced in right now. The major averages came off session lows in the close. …

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Financial Review

Slow to Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,112 SPX + 10 = 2106 NAS + 33 = 5011 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.67 = 55.96 GOLD + 9.60 = 1202.50 SILV + .18 = 16.41   The Federal Reserve reports industrial production dropped 0.6% in March. The biggest drop since August 2012. For the first quarter, industrial production was down at 1% annual rate, the first quarterly decline since the end of the recession.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of home builder confidence increased to 56 in April from 52 in March. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good rather than poor. All three components of the index improved in the month: sales expectations, buyer traffic, and the component gauging current sales conditions all moved higher.   China grew at its slowest pace last quarter since the global financial crisis in 2009; GDP expanded 7% in the three months to March from the year ago period, down from 7.3% the prior quarter. Retail sales and industrial output data broadly missed expectations, however, with the latter expanding at the slowest pace since 2008.   Japan overtook China as the top foreign holder of US government debt for the first time since the global financial crisis. Each country holds a little more than $1.22 trillion in US Treasuries, but Japan has about …

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Financial Review

Not Patient But No Hurry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 227 = 18,076 SPX + 25 = 2099 NAS + 45 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .11 = 1.95% OIL + 1.25 = 44.71 GOLD + 18.30 = 1166.90 SILV + .36 = 15.99 Today is Fed decision day. The Federal Reserve released a policy statement along with quarterly economic projections followed by a Janet Yellen news conference. In the statement, the Fed removed the phrase about being “patient” regarding an interest rate increase, which might seem like bad news for Wall Street; except, they came up with new language which sounds like they will be …, well, patient about increasing interest rates.   Here is the new language: The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.    So, now we are looking for “further improvement in the labor market” and reasonable confidence” about inflation.   If this sounds like so much word play, well it is; but the bottom line is that they did not make a firm commitment to raising rates in June, and it could be quite some time until we see interest rates rise. Wall Street liked it and went from a triple digit …

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Financial Review

Blue Light Special

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 44 = 17,985 SPX – 2 = 2097 NAS + 18 = 4924 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.11% OIL – .77 = 51.37 GOLD – 6.10 = 1208.20 SILV – .12 = 16.48 The S&P 500 is up 5.2 percent in February, rebounding from a January slump. If the index holds those gains it will be the best monthly performance since October 2011.   Crude-oil futures fell to the lowest level in a week, after data showed inventories have built up much faster than expected. According to a report from the American Petroleum Institute late yesterday, US crude stocks rose by 14.3 million barrels last week vs. expectations of a 3.2 million. The today the US Energy Information Administration released a report showing crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 13; that was about double expectations, but far less than the API report. And prices bounced back.   The latest EIA data peg total commercial crude inventories at 425 million barrels, with the government referring to the total as “the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.” One possible reason for the rising inventories is that there has been a United Steelworkers strike at 11 refineries that account for 13% of US output capacity.  A slowdown in refining would lessen the demand for crude …

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Financial Review

Strange Bedfellows

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 268 = 17,533 SPX – 33 = 2026 NAS – 82 = 4684 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.17% OIL – 2.64 = 61.18 GOLD – 6.30 = 1227.10 SILV – -.05 = 17.16 Well, that was ugly. This is why we enjoy milk and cookies while we can. We’ve seen a lot of record highs in the major indices this year, but they remain rare birds. When we fall from record highs the drop can be fast, as it was today. The worst day since the start of October; wiping out gains from the past month. The month of December has brought positive returns to the Dow every single year for the last five consecutive years. As you might imagine, there’s a lot of pressure to make it six. And it might still happen, despite the past couple of days. Still it’s a good reminder to stay awake through the holidays, keep your stop loss in place, however you employ your stop loss; and if you don’t have a stop loss it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. Beyond that, it was just an ugly day, with decliners beating advancing issues 4 to 1. All 10 S&P industry sectors were down, with the energy sector down 3.3% as oil prices continue their slide. Brent crude dropped to $63.56, a 5 year low; …

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