Financial Review

ECB QE

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,813 SPX + 31 = 2063 NAS + 82 = 4750 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.90% OIL – 1.24 = 46.54 GOLD + 9.20 = 1303.10 SILV + .20 = 18.41 The European Central Bank has launched a quantitative easing program, which together with existing programs, will pump €60 billion per month into the Eurozone economies through the purchase of public and private securities, mainly government bonds. The QE program will run through September 2016 with a total price tag of €1 trillion (or $1.3 trillion dollars). So, it’s a big money printing, QE party for the Eurozone, except for Greece. The central bank effectively shut Greece out of the bond buying until July, and only then if Greece passes a review of its current bailout program. That program is heavy on debt reduction and austerity. The country’s existing program of financial support expires at the end of February. The government will run out of money by June without further aid. Greece holds elections on Sunday. The Syriza party is expected to win the election. Syriza would like to default on existing debt and scrap the current bailout program; essentially challenging the status quo of fiscal austerity policy. What happens if Syriza wins the election on Sunday? Well, they will probably claim that fiscal austerity has contributed to the despair and poverty of …

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Monday, June 18, 2012 – G-20 Declares Ceviche Tasty and Democracy Messy – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 25 = 12,741SPX +1 = 1344NAS + 22 = 289510 YR YLD un=1.58%OIL -.26 = 83.01GOLD + 2.00 = 1629.70SILV un= 28.84PLAT – 1.00 = 1489.00The results of the Greek election shows conservative New Democracy taking 29 percent, with the radical leftist Syriza bloc just behind on 27. The Pasok Socialists were set to take 12 percent of the vote. The scenario is similar to the results of an earlier round of voting. ND also came in first in May 6 elections, again with Syriza running a close second, but failed to form a government then. And 38% of eligible voters did not vote yesterday; that’s more votes than any one party received. The headlines say that a pro-bailout, pro-remain in the Euro-union party won the Greek elections; it’s not that simple. There was no majority. The next step is for New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras to form a coalition government; not an easy or certain task, and it must be done within the next 10 days. Look for a combo of the New Democracy conservatives and  the Pasok socialists; the same group that governed Greece into this mess in the first place. Pasok, the Socialist party, called for a government that would include Syriza, the far left party, but  Syriza ruled out joining a coalition that would stick to the punishing bailout terms that have helped condemn Greece to five years of record recession. Alexix Tsipras, the leader of Syriza, had vowed to tear up the terms, betting that …

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Tuesday, May 08, 2012 – The Situation in Europe Isn’t What You Think

DOW – 76 = 12,932SPX – 5 = 1363NAS – 11 = 294610 YR YLD – .04 = 1.84%OIL – .46 = 97.30 GOLD – 33.70 = 1605.80SILV – .62 = 29.57PLAT – 18.00 = 1517.00 The markets did a double take. We knew what was happening in Europe. Yesterday, the markets acted as if nothing had happened. This morning, the sky was falling. And then as the day progressed, the markets realized the sky wasn’t falling, or  perhaps the markets remembered that the Federal Reserve will backstop the markets. And the Fed meets again in June 19th, and that’s not too far away. Of course, before the Fed can make an announcement on yet another round of Quantitative Easing, the sky has to fall, at least a little; stock markets have to wobble, oil prices need to slip, gold prices need to be slapped around. And just when you imagine there is a deep dark deflationary abyss, the Fed can ride to the rescue with another round of cheap money for undeserving bankers. The euro fell for a seventh straight session against the dollar, dropping below $1.30, which was considered a fairly significant level of support. Today’s euro weakness is overwhelmingly tied to Greece’s difficulty putting together a government. Greece’s two main pro-bailout parties failed to win a majority in weekend elections, leaving questions over the country’s ability to avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro. Greece’s Left Coalition party has a chance to form a government opposed to …

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Monday, May 7, 2012 – The Revolution in Greece and France

DOW – 29 = 13,008SPX +.48 = 1369NAS + 1 = 295710 YR YLD unch = 1.88% OIL +.07 = 98.01GOLD – 3.60 = 1639.50SILV -.25 = 30.19PLAT + 2.00 = 1535.00 The results pretty much followed expectations: An anti-austerity backlash by voters in Greece an France. First attempt at forming Greek coalition fails. Hollande seeks to augment fiscal pact with growth plan. Merkel tells French president-elect “no renegotiation”. Greece, where Europe’s sovereign debt crisis began in 2009, was slightly discombobulated after the election boosted left and right-wing fringe parties, stripping the two mainstream parties that backed a the EU/IMF bailout of their parliamentary majority. Uncertainty over whether the country could avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro deepened on Monday when the leader of the conservative New Democracy party which won the biggest share of the vote, failed within hours to cobble together a government. The leaders of the New Democracy party had been given 3 days to form a government but this morning they said it was impossible. Next in line to try to form a government will be Left Coalition leaders, whose party came second on a platform of rejecting the austerity conditions of Greece’s latest bailout program. So, that might be interesting. The Left Coalition is considered a splinter group of the communist party, and now they are in the spotlight because the socialists were too centrist. The far right Golden Dawn party, essentially neo-nazis, achieved a parliamentary breakthrough. In hard times, voters are receptive to …

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Monday, April 23, 2012 European Debate Austerity v. Growth, Walmart in Mexico, Apple in Seattle

DOW – 102 = 12,927SPX – 11 = 1366NAS – 30 = 297010 YR YLD – .04 = 1.93%OIL +.03 = 103.14GOLD – 4.10 = 1639.30SILV – .84 = 30.86PLAT – 22.00 = 1565.00 There is some uncertainty in Europe. Sarkozy is losing the election in France; the Dutch government has collapsed, and the debt continues to mount and the austerity plans aren’t working and the natives are getting restless. In France, Sarkozy came in second behind Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate and a harsh critic of the spending cuts prescribed as a way to end the region’s debt crisis. This was the first round of voting and there will be a runoff election on May 6th. Hollande won 28.6 percent to Sarkozy’s 27.1 percent; Hollande has the momentum. Voter frustration with the status quo and with the E.U. fed a rise of support for extremes at both ends of the political scale, making potential kingmakers out of 11 million voters who supported candidates of the far right and left. Sarkozy and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel have been the main architects of Europe’s efforts to avoid a collapse of the region’s shared currency. If Sarkozy loses, it means Merkel might not last. If both Sarkozy and Merkel lose power, we’ve got a whole new situation. Figures reported by the European Union’s statistics office confirmed the effects of budget-cutting programs on countries that use the euro currency. Even with widespread spending cuts, overall debt rose to 87.2 percent, the highest level since …

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