Financial Review

Sunshine Clean

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-17-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Talk of trade talks. Copper – the canary in the coal mine. Consumer sentiment slips. Short-termitis in earnings reports. Corporate governance. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-17-2018

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Financial Review

Understanding Global Banking

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,039 SPX + 3 = 2130 NAS + 5 = 5082 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.38% OIL – .87 = 60.56 GOLD – 3.60 = 1183.00 SILV + .02 = 16.13     Retail sales rose 1.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Auto dealers and gasoline stations posted the strongest sales, but most major retail segments saw healthy gains. What’s more, sales in April and March were stronger than initially reported. Sales at auto dealers rose 2%; the auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales were up 3.7% at gasoline stations as the price of fuel crept higher. Even if autos and gasoline are excluded, retail sales rose a healthy 0.7%.   Separately, the Federal Reserve reports household debt grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, as a 0.3% fall in mortgage debt offset a 5.6% rise in auto loans, student loans and credit cards. At the same time, real estate value increased by $411 billion. The net effect is that household net worth jumped $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt grew at a 7.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter as businesses pile on debt before a possible Fed rate increase.   The number of US workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June edged up by 2,000 to 279,000. Claims have been below …

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

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Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 97 = 17,013 SPX – 13 = 1988 NAS – 40 = 4552 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50% OIL + .05 = 92.80 GOLD + .30 = 1256.80 SILV + .04 = 19.16 Today’s epiphany is courtesy of Apple; they unveiled not one but three new things. Let’s examine. The iPhone 6 is the new phone, and it is a little bit bigger than the old phone. And they even have an iPhone 6 plus, which is a little bit bigger. So, the new phones won’t fit in your pocket anymore. I know, it’s like the most totally incredible thing ever. The Apple Watch is smaller than the old phone; so small it can be strapped on your wrist. It even has a dial so older people will realize it is supposed to be a watch and not just a little phone strapped to your wrist. It is called the Apple Watch because iWatch was just a little too creepy. The third thing is Apple Pay, which is a payment processing service that has Apple partnering with American Express, MasterCard, and Visa so you can pay for purchases with a big iPhone 6 or an Apple Watch, just like you can pay for things with an American Express, MasterCard, or Visa credit card. The big difference is this is new technology, whereas the credit card is like 50 …

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Friday, July 12, 2013 – Malala Day

Malala Day by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 15,464SPX + 5 = 1680NAS + 21 = 360010 YR YLD + .02 = 2.60%OIL + 1.34 = 106.25GOLD – .80 = 1285.80SILV – .23 = 20.02 So, let’s recap. On Wednesday, Ben Bernanke said the Fed wasn’t going to raise interest rates and really, nobody needs to worry about tapering. Or at least that’s what the markets decided to hear this time, and so the S&P 500 managed its best week in 6 months, up 2.6%; treasuries rebounded with their best week in a year as the yield on the 10 year notes dropped 14 basis points; the dollar had its worst week in almost 2 years and gold had its best week in 8 months. And the price of oil jumped about 5%, and gas prices are up 9 cents in the past 4 days with today’s increase the largest in 6 months, pushing the price of regular gas to its all-time high for this time of year. If you were looking for inflation, we found it. The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures inflation at the wholesale level and it was came in at 0.8% for June; the increase was mainly because of a nearly 3% increase in energy prices. The US economy has long been, and still remains very vulnerable to big swings in energy prices. As you know, it is earnings reporting season, and today was the big day. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reported earnings. Not …

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Hamlet Dies by Sinclair Noe Record Highs for Dow and S&P. DOW + 169 = 15,460SPX + 22 = 1675NAS + 57 = 357810 YR YLD – .10 = 2.57%OIL – 1.92 = 104.60GOLD + 22.70 = 1286.60SILV + .69 = 20.25 To taper or not to taper? That is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous bond market feral hogs or to feed the savage beasts with unending securities purchases. Or to tighten against a Sea of non-existent inflationary troubles And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep, to slaughter the feral hogs at the Discount Window trough; and end the thousand Natural shocks that markets are heir to? Is that all? To taper, to tighten, perchance to Dream; Aye, there’s the rub. For one is QE and the other is accommodative monetary policy, while fiscal policy and structural reforms are nothing more than ephemeral motions, the stuff of what dreams may come, When we have shuffled off this mortal coil. Well, that’s enough of our literary mosh pit for today. As I recall, Hamlet died. The FOMC minutes released by the Fed yesterday, were much ado about nothing… sorry. There was a bunch of talk that boiled down to the basic idea that Quantitative Easing and interest rates are two separate policies. The FOMC bigwigs have no intention of raising the interest rate target; that is off limits. The securities purchases under QE will taper off at some …

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Wednesday, July 03, 2013 – Independence Day

Independence Day by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56 = 14,988SPX + 1 = 1615NAS + 10 = 3443 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50%OIL + 1.64 = 101.24GOLD + 10.10 = 1253.50SILV + .34 = 19.82 Today is Independence Day. I know; the Fourth of July is tomorrow, but it is Independence Day in Egypt, or Coup Day, or something. They had huge crowds in Tahrir Square and they celebrated with fireworks, so let’s called it Independence Day. We’re not really sure what it is, but we know a few things. There has been a revolution. The Egyptian army has overthrown President Mohamed Morsi, announcing a roadmap for the country’s political future that will be implemented by a national reconciliation committee. The head of Egypt’s armed forces issued a declaration today suspending the constitution and appointing the head of the constitutional court as interim head of state. Morsi’s presidential Facebook page quoted the disposed president as saying he rejected the army statement as a military coup. Morsi was the head of the Muslim Brotherhood and he had served for one year as president, after being democratically elected, following the revolution that overthrew the sort-of democratically elected dictator Hosni Mubarak. Democracy can be messy. And these are messy, noisy, uncertain and unpredictable days for Egypt. The country is in unchartered territory. The economy is under severe pressure. Most institutions are weak. A credible leader is yet to emerge with widespread support. And, to make things worse, there is no play …

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Thursday, May 09, 2013 – First We Start With A Military Bank

First We Start With A Military Bank by Sinclair Noe DOW – 22 = 15,082SPX – 6 = 1626NAS – 4 = 340910 YR YLD + .05 = 1.81%OIL – .71 = 95.91 Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, the lowest level since January 2008; that’s January 2008, not December 2008. The weekly report from the Department of Labor shows layoffs remained contained even as other parts of the economy such as manufacturing show strain from budget cuts in Washington. The improvement in employment contrasts sharply with other data, including retail sales and manufacturing, that have suggested a cooling in the economy at the end of the first quarter. Two possible explanations come to mind; either companies think any economic slowdown is temporary, and so they are not cutting, or companies have already done so much cutting that there just aren’t any more easy cuts. If it proves to be the latter, then it would be a challenge to maintain profit margins without finding additional demand. Meanwhile, productivity gains are flagging, which could be a sign of economic weakness. Bloomberg reports employee output per hour grew at an average 0.7 percent annual rate over the past 12 quarters, which is a pace so slow it’s rarely seen outside of recessions. Gains since the recovery began in June 2009 have averaged 1.5 percent, the weakest of the nine postwar expansions that lasted as long. The two sources of growth are population growth – more …

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Tuesday, February 26, 2013 – Send in the Clowns

I will be speaking at the Wealth Protection Conference 2013, April 5 & 6 in Tempe. It’s a great conference. Click here to find out more and make a reservation. Send in the Clowns by Sinclair Noe DOW + 115 = 13900SPX + 9 = 1496NAS + 13 = 312910 YR YLD -.02 = 1,88%OIL – .42 = 92.69GOLD + 21.10 = 1615.70SILV + .44 = 29.53 Twice a year the Fed Chairman visits Capitol Hill. He talks to senators and the next day he talks to the House of Representatives. Today, Bernanke told lawmakers that he had done a good job and he tried to take his bows. Bernanke said Fed policymakers are cognizant of potential risks from their extraordinary support for the economy, including the possibility that it might fuel unwanted inflation or stoke asset bubbles. But, he said the risks did not seem material at the moment, adding the central bank has all the tools it needs to retreat from its monetary support in a timely fashion. Bernanke said: “To this point, we do not see the potential costs of the increased risk-taking in some financial markets as outweighing the benefits of promoting a stronger economic recovery and more rapid job creation.” When asked pointedly by Republican Senator Bob Corker about whether the Fed’s easy monetary policy was contributing to competitive currency devaluations globally and laying the groundwork for inflation, Bernanke was unequivocal. He said: “My inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve chairman in …

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Thursday, February 21, 2013 – the Big Coincidence

Note: I will be a speaker at the upcoming 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ on April 4th and 5th. Click here for details and registration information. Hope to see you there. The Big Coincidence by Sinclair Noe DOW – 46 = 13,880SPX – 9 = 1502NAS – 32 = 3131 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.98%OIL – 2.23 = 92.99GOLD + 12.10 = 1577.40SILV + .12 = 28.78 We had a bundle of economic reports to start the day. Let’s run through them. First, the CPI report, which measures inflation at the retail level, shows prices were unchanged in January for the second month. Consumer prices are up just 1.6% in the past 12 months. One striking subset of the CPI report showed energy prices dropping 1.7% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis. Of course we all know that gas prices were climbing almost every day through the month; most likely, we’ll see a significant bump in the February report. A couple of manufacturing reports showed weakness. The Philly Fed’s  gauge of regional manufacturing activity fell to negative 12.5 in February from negative 5.8 in January with declines in overall activity and new orders. And Markit, a financial information services company, said its gauge of manufacturing activity dropped to 55.2 in February from 55.8. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion but the purchasing managers index showed a slower expansion, with weaker new orders and employment. Initial jobless claims rose 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000 in …

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