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Tuesday, February 04, 2014 – Adjust Accordingly

Adjust Accordingly by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 15,445SPX + 13 = 1755NAS + 34 = 403110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.62%OIL + 1.16 = 97.59 GOLD – 2.70 = 1255.40SILV + .17 = 19.61 Here come the bears; they tend to come out of the woods when the Dow has a day like yesterday, and they tend to growl. The latest noise is in the form of a couple of projections and predictions that the market will drop 40%. Perhaps we’re just going through a period of pricing discovery as the markets digest information. Maybe this will pass or maybe not. The typical bear market lasts 2 to 4 years and the average drop is about 40%, so it isn’t unreasonable to guess. And bear markets come around with regularity. The median duration for a bull market is 50 months and the average duration for a bull market is 67 months. The current bull market dates back to March 2009, which is right at 58 months. The idea of a bear coming along right about now should not shock anybody. We’re not there yet; a bear market would be a 20% correction; so we’re not there yet. Of course you might not want to just sit around and wait to get mauled by a bear. So, let’s consider where we are right now. Here’s the rundown: China’s GDP is slowing and their manufacturing sector is contracting and their shadow banking system may be harboring a few entities …

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Friday, November 08, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW + 167 = 15,761SPX + 23 = 1770NAS + 61 = 391910 YR YLD + .14 = 2.74%OIL + .13 = 94.33GOLD – 19.10 = 1289.50SILV – .17 = 21.60 Another record high close for the Dow. For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.5 percent while the Nasdaq was down 0.1 percent. Today was all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased from 7.2% to 7.3%. The 204,000 new jobs was much better than the estimates of about 120,000. Further, the numbers from previous months were revised higher; September was revised from 148,000 new jobs to 163,000 new jobs, and August was revised from 193,000 jobs up to 238,000; for a net gain of 60,000 upwardly revised jobs. So, why did the unemployment rate move higher? Part of this may have to do with the government shutdown and there might be a reversal in the November numbers. The furloughed government workers, at least some, were likely counted as unemployed with regard to the unemployment rate, but for the total number, that 204,000 number, those furloughed workers were not counted as unemployed. The problem with the unemployment rate is that the rate can fall even when the labor market conditions get worse. There are two possible reasons why the unemployment rate drops; either more jobless people find work, or more …

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