Financial Review

Walk On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-09-2015   DOW – 239 = 16,253 SPX – 27 = 1942 NAS – 55 = 4756 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.18% OIL – 1.79 = 44.15 GOLD – 15.60 = 1106.80 SILV – .19 = 14.71   Wall Street opened higher; part of a global rally for stocks. Japan’s Nikkei index was up 7.7%, bouncing off 11 month lows. Equities in China rose as the finance ministry pledged to accelerate construction of some major projects. European stocks moved higher this morning, with France leading the way. But it didn’t last. The S&P energy sector led declines among the S&P 500 sectors, falling 1.3 percent, as oil prices dropped.   The World Bank’s chief economist is warning that the Federal Reserve risks triggering “panic and turmoil” in emerging markets if it opts to raise rates at its September meeting and should hold fire until the global economy is on a surer footing. Kaushik Basu told the Financial Times that rising uncertainty over growth in China and its impact on the global economy meant a Fed decision to raise its policy rate next week, for the first time since 2006, would have negative consequences. His warning highlights the mounting concern outside the US over the Fed’s potential “lift-off”. It follows similar advice from the International Monetary Fund. That means that if the Fed’s policymakers were to decide next week to raise …

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Financial Review

Strange Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 80 = 17,977 SPX – 9 = 2092 NAS – 7 = 4988 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.94% OIL + .27 = 51.91 GOLD – 9.30 = 1199.00 SILV – .23 = 16.36   A down day as we head into earnings reporting season. S&P 500 earnings per share has come down 8% over the last three months to $around $117.50 from $119.50, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch. Analysts are projecting EPS to fall 4% to 6%, excluding the impact of stock buybacks. Earnings are taking a hit on two fronts: lower oil prices and a stronger dollar. The energy sector takes the lion’s share of the blame for the earnings decline. Excluding energy companies, first-quarter earnings growth would actually be slightly positive. The dollar’s rise over the past year will also have a significant impact as expectations for companies with sizable foreign sales have been revised down 13% year to date while those with sales concentrated in the US witnessed an upward revision.   The Energy sector is the biggest drag on the growth picture this quarter, with the sector’s earnings on track to be down -63.6% on -40.6% lower revenues. Excluding the drag from the Energy sector, total earnings for the S&P 500 index would be up +4.7% on +0.6% higher revenues, according to Zach’s Research. The best performing sector should be …

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Financial Review

Groping Along

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 263 = 17,976 SPX + 25 = 2086 NAS + 56 = 4947 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.96% OIL – .19 = 48.68 GOLD – 13.40 = 1186.00 SILV – .28 = 16.79   The Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February; that follows a decline in January. The small increase in spending in February and outright decline in January suggest the economy failed in early 2015 to match the pace of growth at the end of last year. Gross domestic product is forecast to expand just 1.4% in the first quarter, down from 2.2% in the fourth quarter and 5% in the third quarter. Part of the problem might be harsh winter weather; if that is the case, we might expect a rebound in consumer spending in the spring.   Or maybe the American consumer is tired of spending, and is actually starting to save. The saving rate jumped in February to 5.8 percent, the highest since December 2012 and up from 4.4 percent just three months earlier. The savings rate slumped to as low as 1.9 percent in the run-up to the recession, a sign too many Americans were spending beyond their means. Since then, consumers have been trying to clean up their finances.   The National Association of Realtors said its pending-home-sales index rose 3.1% to 106.9 after …

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