Financial Review

Trump Budget

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump budget proposal includes big increases in defense spending and big cuts to social programs. Based on 3% GDP growth. Hits Social Security and Medicaid. Let the budget battles begin.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-23-2017

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Financial Review

Never Ending Pi

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-14-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Waiting on the Fed. Saudis cheat on cuts. PPI pops. Small biz optimism dips. FDIC calls for Glass-Steagall (ish). Low volatility on Wall Street. Neiman Marcus sales. Moneygram sweetener. Goodbye Ruby Tuesday? Brexit coming. Wayne Tracker, CEO. EPA cuts; mayors fight back. Goodenough battery breakthrough. Happy Pi Day. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 3.14159…2017

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Financial Review

The Streak Ends

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-28-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump addresses Congress tonight; looking for specifics. 4Q GDP estimate holds at 1.9%. Trade deficit widens. Home sales up 5.6% last year; up 4.9% in Phoenix. Consumer confidence up in Feb at 16 year high. Fed jawbones rate hikes. Morgan Stanley pulls a LaLaLand on taxes. Samsung chairman indicted. YouTube at 1 billion hours a day in USA. YouTube Unplugged. Apple goes AR and other stuff they won’t talk about. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-28-2017

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Financial Review

Mars Looks Pretty Good

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS……The Ubiquitous debate. Register to vote before the government shuts down. Iran won’t freeze. WTO slashes global growth forecast. Growth cools for existing home sales. Consumer confidence is high (taken before the debate). Amex forbids merchants to recommend lower price alternatives. Clean Power Plan goes to court. Elon Musk is my favorite Martian. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-27-2016

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Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session …

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Financial Review

Something in the Water

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks turn positive. A big water problem that won’t be resolved. Brazil has the most fascinating corruption.

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Financial Review

The End of Summer

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-21-2015 DOW + 125 = 16,510 SPX + 8 = 1966 NAS + 1 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.21% OIL – .26 = 46.42 GOLD – 6.50 = 1134.40 SILV + .03 = 15.31   The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously owned homes fell 4.8% in August to an annual pace of 5.31 million, marking the first decline in four months. The sales rate in July was revised down slightly to a seasonally adjusted 5.58 million, but that was still the highest level in eight years. The median price of homes sold was up 4.7% to $228,700 from 12 months ago. Inventories of existing homes on the market rose 1.3% to 2.29 million, representing 5.2 months’ supply at current sales trends. Sales fell in all major regions except the Northeast, where they were unchanged.   The Federal Reserve reports businesses racked up new debt at an annual rate of 8.3% in the second quarter. That was the fastest growth since the first quarter of 2008 and was driven mostly by corporate bond issuance. While issuing debt, the corporate stockpile of cash rose to $2.06 trillion from $1.99 trillion. The Fed report also shows that households and nonprofits saw their net worth increase by $695 billion in the second quarter, mostly due to the rise in home values but also due to the …

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Financial Review

Half True

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-10-2015 DOW + 241 = 17,615 SPX + 26 = 2104 NAS + 58 = 5101 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.24% OIL + .95 = 44.82 GOLD + 10.30 = 1105.10 SILV + .41 = 15.33   Berkshire Hathaway is buying Precision Castparts for $235 per share in cash in a deal worth about $37 billion. On Friday, Precision Castparts closed at $193.94, meaning Berkshire is paying a 21% premium to own the company. Berkshire originally began investing in Precision Castparts in 2012 and had already acquired a 3% stake before today’s announcement. Berkshire Hathaway posted disappointing earnings on Friday. Revenue for the second quarter came in at $54 billion. Precision Castparts makes parts for the aerospace industry, and also the energy industry; their major customers are Boeing, General Electric, and Airbus. This is a company with a large moat; there is a big barrier for new competition; GE isn’t going to outsource parts inside a jet engine for a couple of dollars savings. And there is a good chance that PCP can make some decent sized acquisitions to consolidate its industry, or what Buffett calls “bolt-on’ acquisitions.   When you consider some of the recent acquisitions by Warren Buffett, it becomes clear that Berkshire Hathaway is no longer a pseudo-hedge fund or quasi-mutual fund. It is a diversified conglomerate with interests in heavy industry, transportation, …

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Financial Review

Monday, June 02, 2014 – Clean Power Plan

Clean Power Plan by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 16,743 SPX + 1 = 1924 NAS – 5 = 4237 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.53% OIL – .31 = 102.40 GOLD – 7.80 = 1244.50 SILV – .05 = 18.86   The ISM got it wrong this morning. The Institute for Supply Management reported its May manufacturing index came in at a weaker than expected 53.2, but there was a software problem that didn’t properly reflect season adjustments; the ISM issued a revision; the May index was 56.0; but for some reason, that wasn’t correct, so they issued another revision. The May manufacturing index was 55.4; that’s the number and they’re sticking with it. Embarrassing? Yes.   Meanwhile, stocks and bonds were all over the board. Stocks fell into negative territory early on, but bounced back as revisions were issued. Bonds are hyper sensitive to economic growth, and the yield on the 10 year note moved higher and stayed higher, despite the initial numbers and the revisions. And if you look past the revisions, and you should, because it appears to be nothing more than an honest mistake, caught quick and corrected; the bottom line is a pretty strong number for manufacturing, more or less in line with the idea of a second quarter bounce in the economy.   The bigger story this week will be the jobs report on Friday. It is widely expected the economy added about 200,000 to 215,000 jobs in May, which would …

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Financial Review

Friday, May 30, 2014 – Record Highs, Bonds, Coal Mines

Record Highs, Bonds, Coal Mines by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 18 = 16,717 SPX + 3 = 1923 (another record) NAS – 5 = 4242 (not a record) 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.45% OIL – .71 =  102.87 GOLD – 4.60 = 1252.30 SILV – .23 = 18.91   For the week, the Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq added 1.4%. For the month of May, the Dow gained 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 2.1% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.1%. Meanwhile, if you are looking for action, the bond market is the place; the yield on the 10 year note has dropped from 2.65% to 2.45% this month.   Nearly everyone is looking for an explanation as to why longer-term interest rates continue to fall in the face of reduced Fed support and what is being hyped as better economic data. This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Federal Reserve has been propping up Treasury bond prices, and suppressing yields, for the past several years by buying large quantities of bonds each month in an effort to increase investment and consumption, and force investors into riskier assets. To some extent, the Fed’s QE purchases have worked; ultra-low interest rates have supported housing price increases and have led to skyrocketing stock prices.  Household net worth has increased by $25 trillion from the financial-crisis lows in the first quarter of 2009.  However, these gains in net worth have overwhelmingly accrued to the well-to-do while low- …

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