Financial Review

Good to be King

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-08-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,568 SPX – 13 = 2063 NAS – 3 = 5098 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.24% OIL – .08 = 37.57 GOLD + 3.40 = 1075.60   Back to back triple digit losses for the Dow and much of the carnage can be traced to the energy sector and the drop in oil prices. The problem is not just that many energy related companies might suffer losses, but that many of those companies carry big debt loads. Oil prices actually closed above the lows for the day. There was probably profit-taking by some of the shorts and bargain-hunting by those that think we’re going to rise for at least a little bit. Short-term gains in no way negate the bearish implications from this weekend’s OPEC meeting.   OPEC had a collective target of 30 million barrels a day since 2012 but they have been cheating on quotas and producing about 5% more. The important point is that OPEC is no longer the only game on the planet. Most of the global market doesn’t have any ceiling on production. Americans don’t have any ceiling. Russians don’t have any ceiling. Iran has been partially locked out of the global markets and they look to come back with a boatload of supply next month. And the Saudis are fighting a war in Yemen and their national budget …

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Financial Review

See Opportunities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-01-2015 DOW + 168 = 17,888 SPX + 22 = 2102 NAS + 47 = 5156 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.15% OIL un 41.65 GOLD + 4.30 = 1069.80 SILV + .10 = 14.27   More than 180 nations are gathered in Paris to discuss a far-reaching agreement to reduce global carbon emissions. The emerging deal would require wealthy countries, including the U.S., to cut their own pollution while helping poorer countries shift from dependency on fossil fuels and mitigate the effects of climate change. President Obama held a news conference today in Paris at the U.N. global climate summit; Obama said the world needs an enduring framework for addressing climate change and that he would seek an agreement that would boost economies as well as help the planet’s environment. President Obama said the U.S. will meet commitments to help finance developing nations’ efforts to reduce carbon pollution, challenging congressional Republicans who have fought most of his environmental policies.   Some people look at the call for reducing carbon emissions and only see expenses, while others see opportunities. The number of annual patents for green energy has increased fivefold since 2002 and this year is on track to break another record after eight consecutive increases. Most patents in 2015 have been for solar technologies, 586 granted in the first half of the year; followed by fuel cells, electric vehicles, …

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Financial Review

Remember Remember

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-05-2015 DOW – 4 = 17,863 SPX – 2 = 2099 NAS – 14 = 5127 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.25% OIL – .94 = 45.38 GOLD – 3.90 = 1104.60 SILV – .12 = 15.04   Janet Yellen testified on Capitol Hill yesterday afternoon. Yellen was speaking at a hearing about financial regulation. Congress in 2010 created the position of vice chairman for regulation at the Fed and required that person to report regularly, but 5 years later, the position has not been filled; Ms. Yellen testified instead. The conversation quickly turned to interest rates, and Yellen said the Fed could raise rates in December; she thinks the economy is performing well, and so a rate hike would be appropriate, but no decision has been made. The markets are now putting the odds of a December rate hike at almost 60%.   The Bank of England said “no” to an interest rate hike this morning; they cited gloomier prospects for global growth. Bank of England chief Mark Carney, who had previously played down threats to major economies from slowing growth in China and other emerging markets, sent a cautious message that pointed to UK borrowing costs remaining on hold until 2017. The pound fell a full cent against the dollar in response, but the dollar handed back all of its gains in morning trade to stand …

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Financial Review

Decision Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-28-2015   DOW + 198 = 17,779 SPX + 24 = 2090 NAS + 65 = 5095 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.09% OIL + 2.93 = 46.13 GOLD – 11.30 = 1156.70 SILV + .07 = 16.04   It’s Decision Day for the Federal Reserve, and it was an easy decision. The FOMC wrapped up a two-day policy session with a statement that interest rates will remain unchanged near zero; where they have been stuck for 7 full years. The Fed’s statement left open the possibility that the Fed will raise rates at its final meeting of the year, in December. While noting that job growth has slowed, it said that other economic indicators remained relatively strong and the domestic economy “has been expanding at a moderate pace”. The Fed also signaled that its concerns about the global economy have diminished. In the statement from the meeting in September the Fed said global economic and financial developments might restrain domestic growth. In today’s statement they just say the Fed “is monitoring global economic and financial developments.”   The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Dec. 15 and 16. Fed chairwoman Janet L. Yellen said in a late September speech that she still expected to raise rates this year, as long as economic growth continued. Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice chairman, said much the same a few weeks later. …

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Financial Review

Barn Cleaning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2015 DOW – 41 = 17,581 SPX – 5 = 2065 NAS – 4 = 5030 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.03% OIL – .78 = 43.20 GOLD + 4.10 = 1168.00 SILV + .03 = 15.97   Congressional leaders have reached a tentative budget deal with the White House in a breakthrough that would set government funding levels for the next two years and extend the nation’s debt limit through 2017. The bill would raise the spending caps set in place in 2011 that would result in deep cuts to both defense and non-defense spending, called sequestration.  This deal would provide $80 billion in sequester relief.   The bipartisan agreement would include long-term entitlement reforms to the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, the first major reform to Social Security since 1983.  The Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended, in part to tighten and standardize eligibility requirements that now vary by state. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. It also prevents a spike in Medicare B premiums for millions of seniors. The increases would have been caused by the rare absence of a cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits, because of unusually low inflation.   The deal still needs Congressional approval, but for outgoing House Speaker John Boehner this was a matter of wrapping up unfinished business before his departure, …

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Financial Review

Denying Denial

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-26-2015 DOW – 23 = 17,623 SPX – 3 = 2071 NAS + 2 = 5034 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.06% OIL – .87 = 43.73 GOLD – 1.10 = 1163.90 SILV + .03 = 15.94   The U.S. economy has looked shaky of late, and an expected weak reading on third-quarter gross domestic product should confirm that. As a result, the Federal Reserve is again expected to keep interest rates near zero. The Fed decision, due Wednesday, and the GDP report, coming Thursday, will be the center of focus on this week’s economic calendar. Weak data almost certainly means the Fed will stick with its Zero Interest Rate Policy at this week’s meeting. The big question is whether the Fed will hint at a December move.   Also on the calendar this week is some sort of deal for the debt ceiling, which needs to be raised by November 3 in order to avoid default; and to meet the November 3 deadline, a deal needs to be reached this week. Talks have intensified between the White House and House Speaker John Boehner on a two-year budget agreement that would also increase the federal debt limit. Congressional leaders are said to be nearing an agreement, which would then need to win backing from most Democrats and at least several dozen Republicans for House passage. The deal …

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Financial Review

More Worthwhile Pursuits

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-12-2015   DOW + 47 = 17,131 SPX + 2 = 2017 NAS + 8 = 4838 10 YR YLD closed OIL – 2.10 = 47.53 GOLD + 7.50 = 1164.90 SILV – .01 = 15.92   The Dow Industrials posted a gain for the seventh consecutive session, and ninth gain in the past 10 sessions. During the rally, the Dow has gained 1,130 points. Crude oil futures settled 5.1 percent lower after gaining almost 9 percent last week. The dollar was down slightly.   Dell and private-equity firm Silver Lake will buy EMC Corp. for roughly $67 billion in cash and stock, marking one of the largest technology-industry takeovers ever. The $33.15 a share price tag represents a 19% premium over Friday’s closing price. EMC also owns about an 80% stake in VMware, which will remain a publicly traded company. EMC holders will receive $24.05 a share in cash and in addition to tracking stock linked to a portion of EMC’s economic interest in the VMware business. VMware has a market value of about $33 billion. The Dell deal is the largest in tech history, and it may be the biggest tech deal in terms of debt. Dell will add about $50 billion in debt to complete its proposed acquisition, bringing the closely held company’s total debt to about $60 billion.   Budweiser must really like Miller. Anheuser Busch …

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Financial Review

Seven Years

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-15-2015 DOW + 228 = 16,599 SPX + 25 = 1978 NAS + 54 = 4860 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.28% OIL + .38 = 44.97 GOLD – 3.30 = 1106.10 SILV – .01 = 14.51   Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.4 percent in August after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond closely to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, provided the latest sign of sturdy economic momentum and suggested the recent stock market sell-off had little immediate impact on U.S. household spending.   A separate report from the Federal Reserve, however, showed manufacturing output fell a sharper-than-expected 0.5 percent as auto production slid, after a rise of 0.9 percent in July. Excluding autos, factory output was unchanged. The manufacturing sector has been struggling, faced with the headwinds of a strong dollar, slack economies overseas and lower oil prices.   While most economists think the Fed may wait to raise interest rates, and futures contracts show only a 30 percent probability that the Fed will boost rates on Thursday, the Treasury market is bracing for a hike. Treasuries tumbled, lifting the two-year note yield to the highest since April 2011. Treasury two-year note yields rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 0.81 percent. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose nine basis …

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Financial Review

The Value of Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 17,745 SPX + .06 = 2108 NAS + 17 = 5128 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .27 = 48.35 GOLD – 8.40 = 1089.30 SILV – .08 = 14.83   Gross domestic product rose at a 2.3% annual rate from April to June, missing expectations for 2.6% growth. First quarter GDP was revised to show 0.6 percent growth after previous reports showed a 0.2 percent downturn. The latest reading on GDP was propelled by higher consumer spending on big-ticket items such as new cars and trucks and the strongest housing market in years. Personal spending accounted for two percent of the 2.3% headline increase.   Builders increased spending on new home construction at a 6.6% clip in the spring, especially for townhouses, condos and apartment units. That follows 10% gains in the prior two quarters. US exports, meanwhile, snapped back with a 5.3% increase after a 6% drop in the first quarter. Imports rose at a slower 3.5% pace. The improved trade figures also gave the economy a small boost.   Business investment was weak again. Outlays on equipment declined 4.1% and the value of inventories fell slightly to $110 billion from $112.8 billion. Spending on structures such as oil platforms fell 1.6%, largely because of the drop in oil prices. The story on the economy remains consistent: strong consumption, weak investment. …

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Financial Review

Rockets and Rocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 119 = 17,731 SPX – 12 = 2102 NAS – 25 = 5146 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.27% OIL – .74 = 48.45 GOLD – 3.60 = 1091.40 SILV – .14 = 14.76   Greece can begin bailout talks. Greece’s parliament approved new reforms that pave the way for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to begin negotiating his country’s third bailout. Parliament overwhelmingly approved the measures, but roughly a quarter of Tsipras’ Syriza party voted against the reforms. Now Greece and its creditors will begin working out the details of the latest bailout package, the third for Athens in the past five years. Nearly everyone agrees that Greek debt is unsustainably high, but that’s where the agreement ends. The IMF on July 14th issued a report calling for debt relief, a 180 turn from their earlier demands of austerity. The monetary fund recommended either a “very dramatic extension” of payment deadlines by up to 30 years or “deep upfront haircuts,” banker jargon for write-offs.   Lots of headlines flew out of Asia  overnight: Japan’s exports increased the most in five months in June, fueled by strengthening overseas demand, but imports remained subdued due to the effect of lower commodity prices. South Korea’s economy logged its weakest expansion in six years in Q2, recording just 0.3% growth from the previous quarter, as the country got battered by a MERS …

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