Financial Review

We All Know How That Works

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Waiting on the Fed. Rent is too high. Drugs are too expensive. CPI up. Sentiment flat. Net worth increases. AZ unemployment rate down. New iPhones. Exploding Galaxies. Deutsche Bank haggles for justice. ExxonMobil’s oil is worth the same today as 2 years ago. Wells Fargo loses billions in market cap, and something more important.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-16-2016

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Financial Review

Go Figure

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-24-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS Wall Street rallies – go figure. Est-ce que Google a un problème d’impôt? Exxon has a problem with its own shareholders. Deere has a problem renting out tractors. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-24-2016.

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Financial Review

Little Steps

  (* I am taking a break from the daily markets for the holidays but I will try to offer a few thoughts from time to time, plus I will update a few of the audio interviews.) I suspect the major market driver in coming weeks will be more about oil prices than interest rates; not a guarantee, just a suspicion. The Fed raised rates, as expected, very little. The rate hike was largely priced in, although we will still see some accompanying volatility. The move from ZIRP should signal that the economy is on reasonably strong footing. The Fed’s accompanying forecast calls for the economy to grow at a 2.4% clip over the next year, with unemployment dropping to 4.7%, and inflation settling in around 2%; that sounds good on paper; time will tell. One thing the US markets have been slow to do is to price in the changes in energy markets. Not only has technology increased the amount of oil production, it has also increased the viability of renewable, sustainable energy. And if you are wondering about the future of energy, look to Paris. While the COP21 in Paris was not the big change many had hoped for, it was a step in the right direction; and it was definitely a step away from the fossil fuel based energy markets, but it was a tiny little step. Now let me pause for a moment and address the climate change deniers: Wake up and stop being stupid! Even …

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Financial Review

Denying Denial

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-26-2015 DOW – 23 = 17,623 SPX – 3 = 2071 NAS + 2 = 5034 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.06% OIL – .87 = 43.73 GOLD – 1.10 = 1163.90 SILV + .03 = 15.94   The U.S. economy has looked shaky of late, and an expected weak reading on third-quarter gross domestic product should confirm that. As a result, the Federal Reserve is again expected to keep interest rates near zero. The Fed decision, due Wednesday, and the GDP report, coming Thursday, will be the center of focus on this week’s economic calendar. Weak data almost certainly means the Fed will stick with its Zero Interest Rate Policy at this week’s meeting. The big question is whether the Fed will hint at a December move.   Also on the calendar this week is some sort of deal for the debt ceiling, which needs to be raised by November 3 in order to avoid default; and to meet the November 3 deadline, a deal needs to be reached this week. Talks have intensified between the White House and House Speaker John Boehner on a two-year budget agreement that would also increase the federal debt limit. Congressional leaders are said to be nearing an agreement, which would then need to win backing from most Democrats and at least several dozen Republicans for House passage. The deal …

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Financial Review

Move Along

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 17,548 SPX + 4 = 2051 NAS + 12 = 4922 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.30% OIL – .07 = 52.71 GOLD + 1.30 = 1160.30 SILV + .27 = 15.49   The major stock indices finished well off the highs for the day but still in positive territory. The New York Stock Exchange was open for business today, following a 3.5 hour shutdown yesterday. While yesterday’s outage stopped trading at the New York Stock Exchange, shares listed on that exchange continued to trade on other venues such as the Nasdaq Stock Market and Bats Global Markets. NYSE officials blame the halt in trading on a software update that didn’t work out. And they say it was just coincidental that United Airlines had computer problems that grounded flights for 2 hours. And it just coincidental that the Wall Street Journal Website went down just before trading was halted. And it was just coincidental that the ZeroHedge website went down just before trading halted. And it was just coincidental 12 hours before the shutdown, the hacktivist group Anonymous sent a Tweet saying, “Wonder if tomorrow is going to be bad for Wall Street…. we can only hope.” And it was just coincidental that China’s stock market was going through its own meltdown, though much more fundamental in nature; and the Chinese were more than …

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Financial Review

Goodbye Patience

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 27 = 17,902 SPX + 5 = 2081 NAS + 40 = 4950 10 YR YLD un = 1.89% OIL – 3.05 = 50.93 GOLD – 5.50 = 1203.20 SILV – .32 = 16.61   We start today with a big acquisition in the oil industry. Royal Dutch Shell agreed to buy BG Group for about $70 billion in cash and shares, the oil and gas industry’s biggest deal in at least a decade; since 2004 when Royal Dutch Shell was created. This is the biggest acquisition this year and the 10th biggest M&A deal overall, and the fourth biggest deal overall in the oil industry. The merged company will boast a market value twice the size of BP, and even larger than Chevron. ExxonMobil is still the 800 pound gorilla with market cap north of $350 billion.   To win over shareholders, Shell pledged cost savings of $2.5 billion, asset disposals of at least $30 billion within four years and a giant buyback of $25 billion from 2017 to 2020. Shell investors reacted coolly to the deal. Shell’s B shares, the class of stock being used to finance the deal, fell about 7% percent in London. For BG it represents a 50% premium.   BG Group is the exploration part of the former state owned British Gas that was privatized by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. …

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Financial Review

Dow Up, Oil Down, Quit Your Job

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 40 = 17,652 SPX + 1 = 2039 NAS + 5 = 4680 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.34% OIL – 2.79 = 74.39 GOLD + .20 = 1162.90 SILV – .01 = 15.77 Record high close for the Dow Industrials. The Nasdaq Composite hasn’t seen record highs since the spring of 2000, when it closed at 5048, which is just 368 points, or about a 7% move from here. If you were unlucky enough to have bought the PowerShares QQQ exchange-traded fund, an ETF that tracks that top 100 non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq, on March 10, 2000, you’d still be in the red on that investment. Tech companies are once again in a leadership role. While Microsoft, Apple and several other tech leaders of today are trading at higher prices than 15 years ago, Intel and Cisco are still well below their 2000 peak prices. Of course the largest company in market cap is Apple at $660 billion. Apple shares have surged more than 40% so far this year, creating more than $160 billion in market value for shareholders, which coincidentally is about the same market cap as IBM, which was once considered the big player in tech. Today, Microsoft passed Exxon to become the second largest company in terms of market capitalization. Exxon has a market cap of $400 billion; Microsoft is worth $408 billion. Exxon’s …

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Financial Review

Halloween Treats

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-31-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 195 = 17,390 SPX + 23 = 2018 NAS + 64 = 4630 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.33% OIL – .44 = 80.68 GOLD – 25.90 = 1173.90 SILV – .28 = 16.28 Record highs, again. Back on September 19th, the Dow hit a record high close of 17,279. And then we watched the market tumbled for nearly a month. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and it has been a strong move to new highs; up 1,100 from when I called the reversal, and up 1,545 from the lows of October 15. Also, a new closing high for the S&P 500, however, we did not take out the intraday high of 2019 from September 19. Let’s break down the moves for the month of October. The Dow is up 248. The S&P added 46 points. The Nasdaq is up 137 points for October to a 14-1/2 year high. In October we saw the yield on the 10 year note drop 18 basis points from 2.51%. Gold took a hard fall on Friday, at one point trading at levels not seen since 2010. And of course, a big move in oil down 10.75 a barrel. If you are looking for a really dramatic move, the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks has bounced from a low of 1046 on October 13, to …

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Financial Review

The Brute Economic Power of Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE_SEG_1-09-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 61 = 16,987 SPX – 11 = 1985 NAS – 24 = 4567 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.61% OIL – .58 = 92.25 GOLD – 11.90 = 1229.30 SILV – .06 = 18.71 For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq was down 0.3%. Let’s start with the economic data: Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July vs a 0.8% rise in business sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at a healthy and lean 1.29. In a separate report, retail sales and consumer sentiment pointed at an improving economy. The preliminary September reading on the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index rose to the highest level since July 2013 and topped consensus expectations. Sales at US retailers rose in August by the largest amount since April, sales were up 0.6%; raising confidence in the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Retail sales would have been higher, but the price of gas dropped; after excluding gasoline, spending rose 0.7% in August. Of course, one of the reasons Americans spent more money going out and eating and shopping is because the price of gasoline has been low. Spending at gas stations declined an estimated 0.8% in August. That followed a flat July and another 0.8% drop in June. A separate report from the Labor Department on Friday …

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Financial Review

Timing is………..Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 54 = 17, 068 SPX + 7 = 1995 NAS + 34 = 4586 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.53% OIL – 1.13 = 91.67 GOLD – 6.80 = 1250.00 SILV – .12 = 19.04 Later today, at 6PM local time or 9PM eastern, President Obama will address the nation and lay out his strategy to degrade and destroy the Islamic State insurgency operating in Iraq and Syria. This will likely involve significant escalation of the US military role in the area, but we aren’t sure about the intervention in Syria; probably a combination of airstrikes, and support for more moderate Syrian forces willing to carry out attacks on both ISIS and Assad; along with regional allies providing on the ground support. The president has pledged there will not be boots on the ground. He said: “This is not the equivalent of the Iraq war. What this is similar to is the kinds of counter-terrorism campaigns that we’ve been engaging in consistently over the last five, six, seven years.” Which sounds like a distinction without a difference. Earlier today an administration spokesman said: “The president will discuss how we are building a coalition of allies and partners in the region and in the broader international community to support our efforts, and will talk about how we work with the Congress as a partner in these efforts.” That doesn’t mean …

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Tuesday, July 16, 2013 – No Inflation Except if You Drive

No Inflation Except if You Drive by Sinclair Noe DOW – 32 = 15,451SPX – 6 = 1676NAS – 8 = 359810 YR YLD – .02 = 2.53%OIL – .55 = 105.77GOLD + 8.30 = 1292.50SILV + .08 = 21.11 Start with the big economic report of the day; the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which measures inflation at the retail level, increased 0.5% in June. A 6.3 percent surge in gasoline prices accounted for about two thirds of the increase. In the 12 months through June, the CPI advanced 1.8 percent. Stripping out energy and food, consumer prices increased 0.2 percent for a second straight month. That took the increase over the past 12 months to 1.6 percent, the smallest rise since June 2011. No real inflation except for energy prices. A separate report from the Fed showed output at the nation’s factories, mines and utilities rose 0.3 percent in June after a flat reading in May. Another report showed confidence among single-family home builders at a 7-1/2 year high in July, with expectations of stronger sales and buyer traffic. In earnings news, Coca Cola reported earnings of $2.6 billion, down from $2.7 billion a year ago. They tried to blame the shortfall on bad weather but I think people are cutting back on drinking soda. Goldman Sachs posted second quarter net income of $1.9 billion compared with $962 million, in the period a year earlier. So, profits are up 100 percent. How is that possible, especially considering the …

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Uncategorized

Wednesday, June 27, 2012 – To Your Health; Spanish Junk; Barclays Bad; Falcone Flunks; Bhopal Veggie Garden; Goodnight Stockton

To Your Health; Spanish Junk; Barclays Bad; Falcone Flunks; Bhopal Veggie Garden; Goodnight Stockton – by Sinclair NoeDOW + 92 = 12,627SPX + 11 = 1331NAS + 21 = 287510 YR YLD -.01 = 1.62%OIL +.27 = 80.48GOLD + 1.60 = 1575.20SILV – .17 = 27.04PLAT – 18.00 = 1415.00According to the Centers for  Medicare and Medicaid Services, health spending accounts for about 18% of the GDP of the United States. So, tomorrow’s ruling by the Supreme Court on President Obama’s health care plan is pretty important, but so far the economists can’t seem to figure out the implications. This is not to say I have any advance info on the Supreme Court decision. They might say the Act is fine as it is, they might say they will eliminate the mandate but leave the rest unchanged, they might throw out the whole thing.  If they vote against Obamacare it will be seen as a highly partisan act. What better way to show the Court’s impartiality than to affirm the constitutionality of legislation that may be unpopular? That might be a stretch; I think I’ll stick with the idea that we’ll have to wait till tomorrow.The only safe bet is that there will be unintended consequences. For example, what if the Supremes strike down the mandate portion but leave the rest intact? The Obama administration put a mandate in the Affordable Care Act because the law requires insurers to charge the same premium regardless of health status. Without a mandate, it would …

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