Financial Review

What Inflation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-14-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks post 4th day of gains. CPI shows inflation up 0.5%, yawn. Retail sales slip. Chipotle hot again. Cisco has revenue again. Fannie Mae in the red again. Uber, Buffett, Apple. SpaceX wants to launch broadband satellites. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-14-2018

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Financial Review

91 Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Another Dow record. Fed minutes show rate hike “fairly soon”. Existing home sales jump. Shortage of construction workers. Fannie and Freddie must pay government, not shareholders. Facebook plays ball. First Solar beats. Verizon tests 5G. UPS tests drones. Amazon Bigthanks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-22-2017

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Financial Review

Magnitude of Falsity is Enormous

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 36 = 18,068 SPX – 6 = 2099 NAS – 17 = 4976 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.25% OIL + 1.50 = 60.75 GOLD + 9.50 = 1194.00 SILV + .21 = 16.58   The Treasury market continued to sell-off this  morning, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury up to 2.35% intraday, the highest point since Nov. 21. The selling eased by the afternoon, sending the yield down to 2.25 percent. The intense selling in the Treasury market was fueled by a similar meltdown in the Eurozone’s government bond market which has been going on for more than two weeks. Germany’s 10-year bund yield is 14 times higher than a month ago.  The yield on the 10-year benchmark German bond known as the bund increased 12 basis points to 0.71% intraday and European peripherals, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal, also saw their yields jump between 10 and 13 basis points.   At a panel discussion in Zurich this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley outlined that he does not know when interest rates will rise but repeated recent comments that the policy tightening will depend on the US economy. In other words, the Fed won’t send out engraved invitations and you will need to stay alert but the markets shouldn’t be surprised when the Fed raises rates. Dudley said the conditions that will determine …

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Financial Review

Too Much Pie

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-01-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Reivew by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,776 SPX – 14 = 2053 NAS -64 = 4727 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.22% OIL + 3.22 = 69.37 GOLD + 44.30 = 1213.80 SILV + .88 = 16.56 Last week I said that you can never eat too much pie. I would like to amend that statement. That was a long weekend. While we were gone, the Dow hit another record hit on Friday, the 31st of the year. Dow stocks are still up about 7% for 2014; with all these record high closes, you might think it would be more, and you might think you could just throw a dart at any of the Dow 30 stocks and hit a winner. Unfortunately, not all Dow stocks were able to revel in the year’s rallies. In fact, nearly one-third of the market’s companies had negative returns this year. Big names that are down, including: Boeing – down about 7% despite fairly strong sales of airplanes, IBM – down 13% as they try to figure out what their business is, General Electric – is off about 6%, United Technologies – down about 3%, and Chevron – down about 6% for the year as oil prices have been sliding. The oil companies are about the only ones not happy with lower oil prices. On Thursday, as we were enjoying turkey and way too …

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Financial Review

Fluctuations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-01-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 238 = 16,804 SPX – 26 = 1946 NAS – 71 = 4422 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.40% OIL – .43 = 90.73 GOLD + 4.30 = 1214.00 SILV + .20 = 17.28 Yesterday, we talked about third quarter results. Most of the stock indices were down in September but still slightly positive for the third quarter. Today wiped out the third quarter gains. Why? Well, that’s always fun; the headlines offer a plethora of reasons, including “global worries” or maybe it’s a “market top” or “geopolitical hotspots” or “commodity crash” or maybe it’s just the start of a “rocky October”. I don’t claim to know why the markets dropped today, or any given day. I can read a chart, and I can identify patterns, but there are no guarantees. We follow macroeconomics and we analyze company P&Ls, but there are no guarantees. We do not get stuck in cheerleader mode like the talking heads on TV business shows, nor do we follow the perma-bears. Markets fluctuate; to paraphrase a line from J.P. Morgan, or maybe John Rockefeller. “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” That’s a quote from Warrant Buffet. We don’t yet know whether this is folly or a trend. We’ll just have to listen to the markets. The Institute for Supply Management’s index …

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Tuesday, February 25, 2014 – Dumb Luck

Dumb Luck By Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 16,179SPX – 2 = 1845NAS – 5 = 428710 YR YLD  – .05 = 2.70%OIL – .76 = 102.06GOLD + 5.00 = 1342.60SILV – .07 = 21.99 Just a couple of economic reports to start. The S&P/Case-Shilller home Price Indices for December were posted today. Nationally home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%, while posting a fourth quarter decline of 0.3%. After 26 months of consecutive gains, Phoenix posted -0.3% for the month of December, its largest decline since March 2011. Phoenix once led the recovery from the bottom in 2012, but Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco were the top three performing cities of 2013 with gains of over 20%. Another sign that the housing market slowed down during the fourth quarter: Fannie Mae, the nation’s largest mortgage guarantor, saw demand for foreclosed properties dip at the end of the year. Fannie reported last week an $84 billion annual profit for 2013 on the backs of large home-price gains and a series of one-time legal and accounting benefits. The report also showed that its inventory of foreclosed homes increased for the second straight quarter as it begins to take back more properties in Florida and other states where foreclosures have been tied up in courts. The report showed that the prices Fannie received on those properties, as a share of the underlying mortgage balances, declined slightly from the prior quarter for the first time in 2½ years. …

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Thursday, November 07, 2013 – The Road Not Taken

The Road Not Taken by Sinclair Noe DOW – 152 = 15,593SPX – 23 = 1747NAS – 74 = 385710 YR YLD – .03 = 2.61%OIL – .51 = 94.29GOLD – 10.00 = 1308.60SILV – .14 = 21.77 Big story on Wall Street today was the Twitter IPO. I will now tell you everything you need to know about it in 140 characters or less. TWTR IPO 2day. Priced @ $26. Pop 2 $50. Close @ 44.90 up 72%. Market cap = $24 bil, earnings = < zero. Smooth not Facebook. #bubblicious Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter. Gross domestic product grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate, the quickest pace in a year, after expanding at a 2.5 percent clip in the second quarter. Inventories, however, accounted for a 0.8 percentage point of the advance made in the third quarter, as businesses restocked shelves, but the slowest expansion in consumer spending in two years suggested an underlying loss of momentum. Consumer spending expanded at a 1.5 percent rate, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2011. It grew at a 1.8 percent rate in the April-June period. So, unless there is a surge in 4thquarter demand, we might see future production reduced to clear out inventories. The economy grew at a 1.8 percent rate in the first half of 2013, expect growth of around 1.5% for the fourth quarter. The private sector decelerated over the summer, providing less of a cushion for the government shutdown in October. …

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Wednesday, August 07, 2013 – A Crack in QE

A Crack in QE by Sinclair Noe DOW – 48 = 15,470SPX – 6 = 1690NAS – 11 = 365410 YR YLD – .04 = 2.60%OIL – 1.12 = 104.18GOLD + 4.70 = 1288.30SILV + .11 = 19.69 Remember back in late May when Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed might not continue Quantitative Easing forever; there might actually be a time when the Fed stopped pouring $85 billion into mortgage backed securities and Treasuries. The stock market took a hit on the whim of a whisper of a hint that the punchbowl might be removed. Bernanke did some backtracking, and the markets rebounded to hit record highs on the Dow and the S&P, and we all enjoyed milk and cookies. This week, we’ve seen several Fed officials talking about QE again, and again the markets are pulling back; down for three days. On Monday, it was Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher; yesterday it was Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed Bank, and Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed Bank. Today, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said that the central bank would be prepared to scale back asset purchases if the labor market remains on the stronger path followed since last fall. Pianalto said that there have been “clearer signs of a more sustained recovery” in the labor market in the last few months. “In light of this progress, and if the labor market remains on the stronger path that it has followed since …

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Monday, January 7, 2013 – I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed

I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 50 = 13,384SPX – 4 = 1461NAS – 2 = 309810 YR YLD -.01 = 1.90%OIL + .21 = 93.30GOLD – 9.90 = 1647.90SILV – .02 = 30.26 Forty years ago, Yale Hirsch at the Stock Traders Almanac, created the January Barometer. The idea was simple: as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. This market prediction tool has been correct 89% of the time since 1950, suffering only seven major setbacks. Since 1950, stocks have finished lower for the year only three times after posting gains in January. When the Dow is positive in January, then the rest of the year is positive 83% of the time, averaging additional gains of 9.59%. Compare that to the Dow’s performance when January is negative. In those years, the February-December returns are positive just half of the time, with an average gain of 2.04%. As with the full-year results, a positive January typically leads to a positive February. When the Dow closes higher in January, February goes on to average a return of 0.57%, and is positive 63% of the time. When January is negative, February is negative more than half the time, and averages a loss of more than 1%. However, an outsized return in January has not necessarily translated into a bigger return for February. If January is up more than 3.5%, the average February gain is not as big as if January is …

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012 – Do the Hustle

Do the Hustle by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 13,077 SPX – 4 = 1408 NAS – 8 = 298110 YR YLD +.01 = 1.77%OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD – 6.20 = 1702.50SILV + .06 = 31.83PLAT – 12.00 = 1566.00 Someday, we’ll get through a whole week without having to report on the never-ending string of bad behavior by the big banks. I thought this might be the week. There were other things in the news; the Presidential debate on Monday; the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting today. We even had a proxy for the bad banks; the giant insurance company AIG reached a settlement with 39 states for creating a death list, where they would stop paying on annuities when someone died but they wouldn’t look for beneficiaries of a life insurance policy. Then to top it off the CEO, Robert Benmosche, said he was indignant that nobody in the government had thanked him for paying back the bailout money that kept the company from total collapse 4 years ago. And over the past couple of weeks, Chase and Wells Fargo were sued for shoddy and virtually non-existent underwriting of mortgages that failed. Who was left? You might think the big bad banks would take the week off from the news cycle. Yes, someday, we’ll break the bonds of this gruesome litany of dirty deeds; someday this war will end. But not today. The latest federal lawsuit over alleged mortgage fraud paints an unflattering picture of a doomed …

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