Financial Review

Black Hole Sun

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..The panic passes. Washington settles in for a long slog. Wall Street reassess risk. Brazil bribery probe. Walmart shows retailers still alive. Alibaba buy back. Happy B’day FB. Net neutrality dies.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-18-2017

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Financial Review

Hat Trick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSNew record high close. Band of England no change. Earnings reporting season. PPI up. Unemployment claims unchanged. New home sales up. Line Corp IPO. Google antitrust in EU. FCC opens up a 5G world. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-14-2016

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Financial Review

What Are the Odds?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  German 10 year bonds go negative. Brits say they want to leave. Investors go to cash. Shoppers shop. FOMC conclave. Net neutrality survives. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-14-2016

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Financial Review

More Exciting Than Soccer

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSClosing numbers, economic data, plus a preview of the Doha meeting on oil, and a look at Brazil’s impeachment. The latest Panama Papers fallout. Time to buy your own cable box.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-15-2016

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Financial Review

Flip Flop Fedspeak

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-18-2016 DOW – 40 = 16,413 SPX – 8 = 1917 NAS – 46 = 4487 10 Y – .06 = 1.76% OIL – .12 = 30.54 GOLD + 22.30 = 1231.70 After spending 2015 calling for rate hikes St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday evening in a speech on monetary policy that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates given declining inflation expectations and recent equity market volatility. Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, said he now feels key assumptions supporting higher rates have been undermined. Bullard’s big concern is inflation expectations, and inflation has been trending lower, and Bullard believes stock market expectations have a big impact on inflation. In contrast to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen or Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Bullard doesn’t think labor market conditions have much impact on inflation as the traditional “Phillips curve” suggests.   Today, San Francisco Fed President John Williams gave a speech in LA, where he said the economy “is, all in all, looking pretty good.” Williams said his views of the economy haven’t changed much from December: “When I look at my December forecast and compare it with my outlook for unemployment and core inflation today, there’s virtually no change” Williams said he was aware of potential risks facing the economy but added …

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Financial Review

Neutrality Matters

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 10 = 18,214 SPX – 3 = 2110 NAS + 20 = 4987 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.01% OIL – 2.01 = 48.98 GOLD + 5.00 = 1210.20 SILV – .01 = 16.63   The Federal Communications Commission has voted to regulate broadband Internet service as a public utility. Tom Wheeler, the commission chairman, said the FCC was using “all the tools in our toolbox to protect innovators and consumers” and preserve the Internet’s role as a “core of free expression and democratic principles.”   The new rules, approved 3 to 2 along party lines, are intended to ensure that no content is blocked and that the Internet is not divided into pay-to-play fast lanes for Internet and media companies that can afford it and slow lanes for everyone else. Those prohibitions are hallmarks of the net neutrality concept.   Mobile data service for smartphones and tablets, in addition to wired lines, is being placed under the new rules. The order also includes provisions to protect consumer privacy and to ensure that Internet service is available for people with disabilities and in remote areas.   The FCC is taking this big regulatory step by reclassifying high-speed Internet service as a telecommunications service, instead of an information service, under Title II of the Telecommunications Act. The Title II classification comes from the phone company era, treating service as a public utility. …

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Financial Review

A Grain of Salt

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 211 = 17,884 SPX + 21 = 2062 NAS + 48 = 4765 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.82% OIL + 2.26 = 50.71 GOLD – 4.40 = 1265.50 SILV – .11 = 17.32   More people sought unemployment benefits last week, but the number of applicants remained near historic lows in a positive sign for job growth. The Labor Department says that weekly applications rose 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell 6,500 to 292,750. That average has plunged 15 percent over the past 12 months.   Worker productivity declined in the fourth quarter of 2014, while labor costs increased. Productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, fell at 1.8 percent rate in the fourth quarter after rising at a 3.7 percent rate in the third quarter. Labor costs increased at a 2.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter after having fallen at a 2.3 percent rate in the third quarter. The drop in productivity and rise in labor costs are reflected in the fact that the growth in overall output slowed in the fourth quarter.   The U.S. trade deficit jumped 17.1% in December to a two-year high. The nation’s trade gap jumped to a seasonally adjusted $46 billion in December from a revised $39 billion in the prior month.   If Anthem is your health …

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Financial Review

Good Luck With That

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 225 = 17,416 SPX + 19 = 2021 NAS + 45 = 4683 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.75% OIL + .09 = 44.54 GOLD – 25.20 = 1259.10 SILV – 1.04 = 17.02 Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said it would remain “patient” on raising rates, but indicated it saw the U.S. economy getting stronger. The Fed also said it has seen inflation decline, and it may decline further, but that low oil prices are probably temporary. The FOMC statement said that economic activity has expanded “at a solid pace” and that labor market conditions have improved. That was certainly the case last week. The fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits during a holiday-shortened week that typically makes the data more volatile. Jobless claims dropped by 43,000 to 265,000 in the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000. No state reported an increase of more than 1,000 in claims for the week ended Jan. 17. The National Association of Realtors reports its index of pending home sales fell 3.7% in December, though the year-on-year gain was 11.7%, the highest since June 2013. Pending sales measures contracts signed but not yet closed. The Census Bureau reports the number of owner-occupied households fell by 354,000 from a year earlier as the homeownership rate dropped to its lowest level since 1994. The ownership …

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Financial Review

Friday, May 16, 2014 – Nervous About Recovering in the Recovery

Nervous About Recovering in the Recovery by Sinclair Noe DOW + 44 = 16491 SPX + 7 = 1877 NAS + 21 = 4090 10 YR YLD + .02 =  2.52% OIL + .68 = 102.18 GOLD – 4.10 = 1293.70 SILV – .11 = 19.45   Stocks were all over the place this week; we had record highs for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 5oo Index, topping 1900 for the first time, even as small caps slipped and internet stocks tumbled. For the week, the Dow slipped 0.6 % and the S&P 500 dipped 0.03 %, while the Nasdaq gained 0.5 %. Bonds enjoyed a very nice week indeed, with the yield on the 10 year Treasury note moving from a high for the week of 2.66% to a low of 2.47%. Isn’t it awesome when the Dow hits a record high but everything else flatlines or shrinks? Maybe we are in a recovery, but maybe we need to recover from the recovery. Recent economic data has been mixed, and reports released Friday added to concerns about the lackluster recovery. The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May was at 81.8, down from 84.1 in April. Housing starts increased in April at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,072,000. This is 13.2 % above the revised March estimate of 947,000 and is 26.4 % above the April 2013 rate of 848,000. Earlier in the week we got the PPI and CPI inflation numbers. …

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Financial Review

Friday, April 25, 2014 – Don’t Hold Your Breath

Don’t Hold your Breathby Sinclair Noe DOW – 140 = 16,361SPX – 15 = 1863NAS – 72 = 407510 YR YLD – .02 = 2.66%OIL – 1.25 = 100.69GOLD + 9.90 = 1304.80SILV + .07 = 19.83 Consumer sentiment rose in April to a nine-month high as views on current and near-term conditions surged. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final April reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 84.1, up from 80 the month before. Meanwhile, a new Gallup poll shows more Americans are optimistic about the job market this month than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, with 30% saying now is a good time to find a quality job. That marks a significant improvement from the 8% who said they were optimistic about the job market in 2010, but it’s still a drop from the pre-2008 highs of almost 50%. And even though almost a third of Americans are optimistic, two-thirds still say the job market is lackluster; 66% of Americans say it’s not a good time to hunt for employment. Next week’s economic calendar includes a two day Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Next Friday, we’ll have a monthly jobs report; the current estimates call for 215,000 net new jobs in April and the unemployment rate dipping to 6.6% from 6.7%. Also, the Commerce Department will release its first guess of first quarter GDP; the consensus estimate on the initial estimate is that the economy grew about 1%. The situation in Ukraine …

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