What we are reading: CNN: DOJ preparing to announce end of Mueller probe as soon as next week – The Hill. Intimidation, Pressure and Humiliation: Inside Trump’s Two-Year War on the Investigations Encircling Him – New York Times. It is still obstruction, even if it is public. Stock market’s post-Fed-minute dip fails to hold, as central bank seen split on policy strategy – Marketwatch. Split on rate hikes but near unanimous to stop reducing balance sheet. How High-Speed Rail Got Caught Between Newsom and Trump – New York Times. 16 states sue to stop Trump from using Emergency Powers to build wall – Alltop. Gold steady near 10-month high; palladium hits record level – Reuters. Canary in the gold mine? Elections Commission Chief Uses the “Nuclear Option” to Rescue the Agency From Gridlock – Mother Jones. The agency’s chair says she won’t allow its lawyers to defend it when it’s sued. Wait, we have an elections commission? What to Watch for During the Catholic Church’s Sex-Abuse Meeting – The Atlantic.
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-17-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Fed minutes point to more tightening. Tax cuts lead to big deficits and moves to cut Social Security and Medicare. Small stocks suffer. BofE leery of leveraged loans. Why Saudis won’t weaponize oil prices. Legalization Day in Canada. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-17-2018
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-23-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Fed minutes dovish. Stocks erase early losses. Trade disputes still muddled. Uber nixes autonomous cars in AZ. GE’s long arc of losses. Retail mixed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-23-2018
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….On again off again trade wars/disputes, whatever. Oil prices and everything else starting to pinch. Dodd Frank rollback because…, it works? Zuckerberg goes to the EU. SpaceX again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-22-2018
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-11-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Fed minutes point to more rate hikes. CPI inflation heats up a little. Tweets fly, volatility rules. Gas prices rise with Middle East tensions. Facebook and your lack of privacy. Ryan retiring. Boehner goes green. Payday lenders v. CFPB. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-11-2018
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-03-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Record highs for Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2K. Fed minutes. Manufacturing win-win. Construction spending up. Car sales. Crude hits $61. Bombogenesis…. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-03-2018
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high. Goldman’s rational exuberance. Fed minutes and the mystery of low inflation. Cap goods orders drop. Consumer sentiment slips. Uber’s very bad breach. Google is watching you. Thanksgiving tidbits. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-22-2017
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-11-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow, S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs. Fed minutes – policymakers uncertain about a certain rate hike. JOLTS shows labor market remains strong. Tweets on the market and taxes send mixed message. Japan’s Nikkei hits record. Catalonia at the crossroads. Airline earnings. Everybody loves Carole King. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-11-2017
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump’s business councils collapse. CEOs quit en masse. GOP denounces Trump. Fed minutes show concern for no inflation. Housing starts down. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2017
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..1Q earnings season winds down. CBO scores AHCA. Pause on cost-sharing subsidies case. Trump tour sells big in Saudi Arabia. SCOTUS whacks patent trolls. NC must undo gerrymandering. Ford gets new CEO – share price is Job One. Huntsman-Clariant. Midwest fields flood. Citi’s Banamex laundered money in Mexico. The circus closes its tent. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-22-2017
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Fed moves to sustainability mode. Earnings season sighted. Wells Fargo still too stupid after 113-page report. Libor audio tapes implicate the Bank of England. Barclays CEO targets whistleblower. Swift-Knight. AT&T pays for 5G. And Gorsuch makes 9. Toyota’s All-American car plant. Tesla tops GM. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-10-2017
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-23-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Three more indices hit records. Fed minutes confirm rate hike. New orders show strong economy. Overtime pay rule nixed. Car sales set to top record. IEA predicts gas demand peak. Amazon pilots strike. Lufthansana pilots strike. Google might pay taxes in Indonesia. Facebook has a censorship tool for China. Aloe vera gel isn’t. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-23-2016.
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2015 DOW + 33 = 17,084 SPX + 1 = 2014 NAS + 19 = 4830 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10 OIL + .14 = 49.57 GOLD + 17.40 = 1157.40 SILV + .16 = 15.93 World shares were green across the board after details from the Fed’s minutes cast further doubt on the prospect of a rate rise this year. European stocks broke a one-month high for their best weekly gain since late January on renewed hopes central banks will keep monetary policy loose for longer. Overnight, Asian equities and currencies also moved higher following yesterday’s gains on Wall Street (the Dow ended above 17,000 for the first time since August, while the S&P 500 closed well past its 50-day MA of 1,995). Oil prices traded above $50 a barrel this morning, with a gain of nearly 9% this week; for the biggest weekly gain in 6 years. Investors are now positioning themselves for corporate earnings season, which picks up steam next week with most of the nation’s largest banks reporting their results, as well as big companies including; Intel, Netflix, UnitedHealth and GE. Earnings are expected to be down roughly 5.5 percent from a year ago, according to FactSet, mostly because of the drop in commodity prices. Now there is a game on Wall Street where analysts set the bar very low …
http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 261 = 17,515 SPX – 34 = 2046 NAS – 87 = 4909 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.20% OIL – .68 = 51.65 GOLD + 3.00 = 1159.00 SILV + .08 = 15.22 The stock market crashed today. Before you accuse me of over exaggerating, I do not consider a 261 point drop on the Dow to be a crash; that’s just a down day, with a dollop of ugly. No, I mean the actual New York Stock Exchange crashed. The computers malfunctioned. Trading stopped for 3.5 hours. Open orders were cancelled. Other orders were re-routed. This was an actual technical crash. It started with a few squirrelly trades in the morning, and at 11:32 AM, the New York Stock Exchange surrendered, halted trading, and tried to reboot the computers. And for the most part, it did not stop trading in NYSE listed stocks. The other exchanges picked up the trades. First, the Nasdaq did not crash; next the BATS system just re-routed trades, ARCA picked up more trades, and the Philly exchange handled some trades as well. So, in many ways, it was a typical trading day. The New York Stock Exchange is really more of a TV studio these days than a central force behind buy and sell orders. CNBC broadcasts there; tourists gawk; all the trades are electronic, in a …
Fed Minutes, Fed Conundrum by Sinclair Noe DOW – 66 = 15,900SPX – 6 = 1781NAS – 10 = 392110 YR YLD + .09 = 2.79%OIL – .01 = 93.33GOLD – 32.40 = 1243.80SILV – .49 = 19.95 The Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve policy makers, met October 29-30, and to no one’s surprise they did not change monetary policy. Today, minutes of that meeting were released. The policy makers “generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the Committee’s outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months.” They think the economy is improving, despite the government shutdown and ongoing political dysfunction, the economy is getting better and the FOMC is considering how and when they can exit Quantitative Easing; they would like to scale back $85 billion per month in purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities without triggering a rise in interest rates that could slow economic growth and wipe out gains in the labor market. That is not to say they are ready to raise their Fed Funds target for interest rates. That target has been right at zero and will likely remain at zero for at least a year or more. They want to get out of the bond buying business without the market noticing, and independently pushing interest rates higher. It’ll be a fine trick if they can pull it off. In a speech to the National Economists Club, Ben Bernanke …
QE Soon, Inequality Grows– by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 13,172SPX + 0.32 = 1413NAS + 6 = 307310 YR YLD -.09 = 1.72%OIL – .28 = 96.40GOLD + 15.50 = 1655.10SILV + .50 = 29.93PLAT + 26.00 = 1541.00 The Federal Reserve released minutes of their most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Here’s the money quote from the FOMC minutes: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” In other words, a majority of the FOMC members think it is time for QE3, unless we see an economic miracle, say hallelujah! So, when will they make an announcement? Well, there is a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 31. There is another FOMC meeting September 12 and 13. The language in today’s minutes is not a guarantee of QE3, but if they do not make an announcement of QE3, then the lack of action will be interpreted as highly political and obstructionist. They have now obligated themselves to some sort of accommodation; it might not be called QE3, but a rose by any other name… The economy is ready for help; GDP is growing at less than 2%; inflation is running less than 2%; unemployment is lingering at 8.3%; Europe could implode and hurt the US economy. So, what will happen when the Fed provides additional monetary accommodation? Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther …