Financial Review

The Great Unwind

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-20-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow record high close. Maria hits Puerto Rico. Earthquake in Mexico. The stock market is calm, too calm. The Fed holds rates steady for now but begins the Great Unwind. The mystery? Will it work? Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-20-2017

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Financial Review

June Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….US adds 222,000 jobs in June. Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Wages up 0.2%. U6 at 8.6%. Reasons for flat wage growth. Fed will stay the course. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-07-2017

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Financial Review

Sunshine

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-15-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks down. Watch FANGS. Factory production down. Empire state up. Jobless claims down. AZ loses jobs. Trump’s apprentice thing. Sanctions on. The ACA secret. BOE unchanged but divided. Kroger whacked. Wells Fargo steps in it, again. Financial Rreview by Sinclair Noe for 06-15-2017

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Financial Review

When Issued

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-02-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record. Markets squirrely ahead of FOMC policy meeting. Apple earnings mildly disappointing. Plus, other earnings news. Home Prices up in March. US vehicle sales down. Airline execs go to Washington for public flogging. Banks subpoenaed for Treasury market manipulation. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-02-2017 

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Financial Review

91 Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Another Dow record. Fed minutes show rate hike “fairly soon”. Existing home sales jump. Shortage of construction workers. Fannie and Freddie must pay government, not shareholders. Facebook plays ball. First Solar beats. Verizon tests 5G. UPS tests drones. Amazon Bigthanks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-22-2017

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Financial Review

Pandora’s Box

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFOMC minutes show the Fed stuck in neutral. Aetna threatened to pull out of Obamacare exchanges if DOJ did not approve Humana merger – how it could backfire on Aetna. The return of subprime. Cisco job cuts. Target blames Apple. Unstoppable inversion. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-17-2016

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Financial Review

No Argument for Bulls

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe Fed chases the bulls away. Say it ain’t so Lefty. What you see in the mirror. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-19-2016

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Financial Review

I Want to Go Back to Bahia

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-18-2016_2_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks rally for fifth week. Brazil is knee-deep in corruption.

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Financial Review

Waiting on the Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSWaiting and watching weak retail sales, no PPI inflation. The story of a naughty pharma. And 13 million will be washed away.

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Financial Review

A Far, Far Better Thing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-03-2015 DOW – 252 = 17,477 SPX – 29 = 2049 NAS – 85 = 5037 10 YR YLD + .15 = 2.33% OIL + 1.33 = 41.27 GOLD + 8.40 = 1062.60 The S&P 500 suffered its biggest drop since late September.   The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate commercial banks must pay to store money overnight to minus 0.3% from minus 0.2%. The ECB left its key lending rate unchanged at 0.05% and the rate on its marginal lending facility at 0.3%. They also announced they will extend their bond buying program until March 2017. But the central bank did not increase the monthly spending on bonds beyond the current monthly level of 60 billion euros, or $63 billion. With inflation at just 0.1%, unemployment still over 10% and bank lending disappointing, many analysts were expecting more aggressive moves. Now, here’s where it got interesting; the dollar index dropped over 2%, at one point the euro was up about 3% but finished trade with modest gains. Early this morning the Financial Times tweeted and reported the ECB was leaving rates unchanged. Oops. But even after the correction, the euro held on to some of the gains.   Even as the ECB announced fresh stimulus, the Federal Reserve is considering tightening monetary policy. Actually, it is more than just a consideration – the Fed has …

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Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published …

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Financial Review

Barn Cleaning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2015 DOW – 41 = 17,581 SPX – 5 = 2065 NAS – 4 = 5030 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.03% OIL – .78 = 43.20 GOLD + 4.10 = 1168.00 SILV + .03 = 15.97   Congressional leaders have reached a tentative budget deal with the White House in a breakthrough that would set government funding levels for the next two years and extend the nation’s debt limit through 2017. The bill would raise the spending caps set in place in 2011 that would result in deep cuts to both defense and non-defense spending, called sequestration.  This deal would provide $80 billion in sequester relief.   The bipartisan agreement would include long-term entitlement reforms to the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, the first major reform to Social Security since 1983.  The Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended, in part to tighten and standardize eligibility requirements that now vary by state. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. It also prevents a spike in Medicare B premiums for millions of seniors. The increases would have been caused by the rare absence of a cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits, because of unusually low inflation.   The deal still needs Congressional approval, but for outgoing House Speaker John Boehner this was a matter of wrapping up unfinished business before his departure, …

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Financial Review

Confidently Waiting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2015   DOW – 62 = 16,370 SPX – 8 = 1953 NAS + 26 = 4822 10 YR YLD un = 2.18% OIL – .49 = 44.14 GOLD – .30 = 1109.40 SILV – .21 = 14.51   The story that will be leading markets throughout this week will be Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. While market expectations of an increase in rates have fallen to 28 percent, down from over 50 percent a few weeks ago, economists insist the decision is still too close to call. The Fed has been saying they will hike interest rates; this may be one of the most telegraphed rate hikes in the Fed’s history, but circumstances keep changing. Since the last Fed meeting, oil prices have dropped by 15%, the dollar has strengthened, China has slowed, emerging markets have softened, and there is little to no sign of inflation despite a Fed target of 2%. By the way, we’ll get one more report on inflation Wednesday, with the release of the CPI, or consumer price index. So, there are many reasons why the Fed might not raise rates, but then if they do stand pat, they risk coming across as timid, or worried that the recovery is in trouble. If they hike rates they can give the impression they are confident, and confidence begets confidence. And so some clever folks think …

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Financial Review

Behind the Curtain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 16,117 SPX + 0.27 = 1862 NAS + 2 = 4217 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.15% OIL + 1.16 = 82.94 GOLD – 2.20 = 1239.90 SILV – .08 = 17.47 The Dow is down for a sixth consecutive session. We started the morning down almost 200 points, so there is that. Part of yesterday’s volatility is being blamed on mini-flash crashes; 179 to be precise. Basically the high frequency traders yank their bids, as their algorithms try to catch up with big moves. It isn’t really a flash crash so much as a lack of liquidity. Take a deep breath. Think about how you are invested. Consider whether you are diversified across asset classes. The market has not collapsed. It has gone down in a fairly fast and furious manner, but it has not collapsed. What will happen next? Will the market bounce back? Will it go sideways? Will the pullback continue and become really painful? You don’t know; I don’t know; the market doesn’t know; nobody knows. Take a deep breath, consider where you are and where you want to be in the future. The stock market is always a gamble. Maybe you want to gamble with a part of your money, and that’s fine. Maybe you are tired of gambling and want to find something safer; that’s cool, too. Just understand what you’re …

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Financial Review

Thursday, April 24, 2014 – The Bridge From Bubbles to Prosperity

The Bridge From Bubbles to Prosperity by Sinclair Noe DOW unchanged 16,501SPX + 3 = 1878NAS + 21 = 414810 YR YLD unchanged 2.69%OIL + .46 = 101.90GOLD + 10.20 = 1294.90SILV + .20 = 19.75 The Dow closed unchanged. That is just one of those freaky things that happens every few years. I remember it happened in 2008, and 1998 and 1996. I’m fairly sure there were other days where the Dow closed unchanged. I don’t know if there is any particular significance. Orders to factories for durable goods rose 2.6%, adding to the 2.1% rise in February. The back-to-back gains followed two big declines in December and January, which had raised concerns about possible weakness in manufacturing. The earlier declines, however, were likely tied to bad winter weather. On the jobs front, the number of people seeking unemployment benefits jumped 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 329,000 last week. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 316,750, which puts us back to 2007 levels. The big earnings report today was Microsoft, which posted income of $5.6 billion, or 68 cents per share, compared with $6 billion, or 72 cents, in the year-ago quarter. They beat estimates of 63 cents per share, but take it with a grain of salt; the estimates started the quarter around 80 cents per share. Yesterday we talked about a tech bubble, and whether we were in one or not, and we looked at comments from Greenlight Capital manager David Einhorn; he says …

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Uncategorized

Wednesday, February 12, 2014 – Which Way the Wind Blows

Which Way the Wind Blows by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 15,963SPX – 0.49 = 1819NAS + 10 = 420110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL + .33 = 100.27GOLD + .90 = 1292.80SILV unch = 20.34 After a four day rally, the stock market came back to a dose of reality. Just a reminder that the Fed has started gradually reducing the amount of money it pumps into the economy. The move could hardly have been a surprise, because the Fed announced as early as last spring that it would begin doing so by the end of 2013. Now, it’s happening, and likely won’t change, and Janet Yellen said the rest of the world needs to adjust because the Fed has set its course. That has made for shaky markets around the world. Remember that about a month ago, we started worrying about emerging markets. China said their economy was slowing down; that in turn will hurt the exports of commodity producers, weakening their trade balances. The big question now is how much further growth in China will slow. A serious cutback in China’s demand would not just harm emerging markets’ shipments directly to China, it would also cause further erosion in the already falling world prices for emerging markets’ coal, copper, palm oil and other commodities. China is also dealing with a shadow banking system ripe with potential defaults. But that isn’t the only problem in the world. Many of those emerging markets also have unique economic …

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Uncategorized

Friday, January 10, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 16,437SPX + 4 = 1842NAS + 18 = 417410 YR YLD – .10 = 2.86%OIL + 1.23 = 92.89GOLD + 20.90 = 1248.60SILV + .63 = 20.27 Jobs report Friday. The US economy created only 74,000 net new jobs in December. The number of jobs created was the lowest in 3 years and was well short of expectations for about 195,000 jobs. In the four months before December, the average number of jobs created in the US was 214,000 a month. The Labor Department said 38,000 more jobs in November were created than the 203,000 previously reported. And the unemployment rate dropped from 7% to 6.7%. If that doesn’t seem to add up, you are correct. The headline news that the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% is not good. The problem is that a bunch of people fell out of the labor force, 347,000, to be exact. They stopped looking for work, which made them no longer “unemployed” in the eyes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; they just become invisible. The Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 63% in November to 62.8% in December. This is a measure of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% range that had been considered typical over the past 20 to 30 years. The participation rate has been dropping for the past 12 years. Part of the reason for the drop in …

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Thursday, September 19, 2013 – Shine On You Crazy Dimons

Shine On You Crazy Dimons by Sinclair Noe DOW – 40 = 15,636SPX – 3 = 1722NAS + 5 = 378910 YR YLD +.06 = 2.75%OIL + .04 = 106.43GOLD – .20 = 1366.10SILV + .13 = 23.19 No taper, despite hints and great expectations. Having announced the intention to taper, ultimately, a few weeks later, the proposal was shelved. The reasons given were concerns about the strength of the economic recovery and the impact of high rates on the ability of an over-indebted world to continue to meet its obligations. All these factors were largely unchanged between the time of the original announcement and the repudiation. What did change was the taper tantrum, the unpleasant market reaction to the hint of taper. Bond yields rose sharply; the Fed’s tough talk has already led to a 140 basis point rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which would be roughly equivalent to six rate increases; that in turn resulted in pushing mortgage rates higher, putting a crimp in the housing recovery. Today we learned home sales were up. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in August to the highest level in more than six years as buyers rushed to lock in interest rates before they jumped even higher. The labor “participation rate” dropped to 63.2% in July, the lowest level since the late 1970s. The rate for men is at an all-time low. The unemployment rate has been falling, but chiefly because so many people are giving up hope and dropping …

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Uncategorized

Friday, April 12, 2014 – Trade Secrets

Trade Secrets by Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.08 = 14,865SPX – 4 = 1588NAS – 5 = 329410 YR YLD – .07 = 1.72%OIL – 2.85 = 90.66GOLD – 84.00 = 1478.00SILV – 1.81 = 25.95 The S&P 500 is up about 2.4 percent for the week, and the Dow up about 1.8 percent and Nasdaq up about 2.4 percent. The S&P has only had two weeks in 2013 with bigger gains. For the year, the Dow has gained more than 13 percent and the Nasdaq is up 8.7 percent. Retail sales fell in March for the second time in three months and consumer confidence dropped in April. Sales fell 0.4 percent in March. Consumer spending was considerably weaker in the first quarter than estimated. Core sales, which strip out cars, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.2 percent last month. This measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of the government’s measure of gross domestic product. It is widely believed that the end of the payroll tax holiday is related to the drop in consumer spending. Going a step further, growth is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter largely because fiscal policy tightened further in March. A separate report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan shows the consumer sentiment index dropping ot 72.3 in April, the lowest level since last summer. Producer prices, or prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.6 percent in March, their biggest drop in 10 months, as gasoline prices tumbled. In the 12 months …

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