Financial Review

June Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS287,000 new jobs in June. Unemployment rate up to 4.9%. Smoothing out the numbers. Wages inch higher. The impact of minimum wage. The need for job training. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-08-2016

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Financial Review

Fed Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFOMC leaves rates unchanged. No surprise. Brexit scares. PPI inches up. Industrial production inches down. California is #6. BofA fires. Office Depot hires. Coffee best served tepid. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-15-2016.

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Financial Review

38,000 Not a Typo

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFriday Jobs Report comes in at 38,000 jobs for May and the unemployment rate drops to 4.7%. Everything you need to know about the report. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-03-2016

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Financial Review

Jobs Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSEverything you need to know about the April 2016 Non-Farm Payroll Report. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-06-2016

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Financial Review

When Doves Fly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFOMC Day and the Fed turns dovish.

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Financial Review

The February Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-04-2016 DOW + 62 = 17,006 SPX + 6 = 1999 NAS + 9 = 4717 10 Y + .05 = 1.88% OIL + 1.24 = 35.81 GOLD – 4.30 = 1260.60   The US economy added 242,000 new jobs in February, almost 50,000 more than estimates. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Employment gains for January and December were revised up by a combined 30,000.   Total employment is now 5.1 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 13.8 million from the employment recession low. Private payroll employment increased 230,000 in February, and private employment is now 5.5 million above the previous peak. Private employment is up 14.3 million from the recession low. In February, the year-over-year change was 2.67 million jobs. The private sector has chalked up 72 months of uninterrupted job gains, the longest streak on record. As we look at the different sectors where jobs were created or lost, a theme develops; the sectors involving energy, natural resources, and international trade were hit while the sectors that mainly involve the domestic economy seem to be prospering. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas producers, cut jobs for the 17th straight month amid falling oil prices (down 18,000). After a 23,000 gain in January, manufacturers cut 16,000 jobs – that could be a one-month blip but could also suggest falling demand from …

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Financial Review

Lonesome Tom and Tom Alone

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-27-2016 DOW – 222 = 15,944 SPX – 20 = 1882 NAS – 99 = 4468 10 Y + .01 = 2.00% OIL + .71 = 32.16 GOLD + 5.00 = 1125.70 Stocks started the session down, a little over 150 points, then rallied and turned positive, then the Fed released its policy statement to wrap up its two-day FOMC meeting, and stocks fell again; 350 points from peak to trough, even though there was no surprise in the statement.   The Federal Reserve statement had a few changes from the last statement. First, there was no change in interest rates – as expected. The Fed says it expects the economy will continue to warrant only gradual rate increases – as expected. They will closely monitor global economic and financial developments – a soft backpedal from December, when they said risks were balanced. Not a big surprise. Inflation is expected to remain low because oil prices are down, but that won’t last forever – yeah, yeah. The strong dollar is a bit of a drag. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year – an acknowledgement that economic growth slowed, well that’s different. Their confidence in the economy has eroded since December. Not exactly. The Fed also noted the strength of …

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Financial Review

Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-26-2016 DOW + 282 = 16,167 SPX + 26 = 1903 NAS + 49 = 4567 10 Y – .03 = 1.99% OIL + .11 = 30.45 GOLD + 11.80 = 1120.70   The Federal Reserve had always planned to pause after raising interest rates in December, but the question now is how long that break will last. Initial expectations were that the FOMC would raise rates again this March, but a downturn in the equity markets, a stronger dollar and weak inflation have led some to predict that another move may be months away. Investors may get some more insight as Fed officials gather today for a two-day session, their first policy-making meeting of 2016. For now, the Fed can simply say that they are data dependent and the 25 basis point increase in December has not had an effect on the economy. They might say that everything is basically good in the economy and the markets, if they get any mention at all, are just not looking at the right data.   In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley summed up the situation: “In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter for …

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Financial Review

Bon Appetit

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-06-2016 DOW – 252 = 16,906 SPX – 26 = 1990 NAS – 55 = 4835 10 Y – .07 =  2.18% OIL – 1.98 = 33.99 GOLD + 16.30 = 1094.80   Sometimes the world can be a messy place. Global markets get discombobulated. That has been the case in the first few trading days of the year. Saudi Arabia and Iran are about as friendly as cats and dogs, China’s economic growth is grinding slower, and then, in left field, North Korea drops a bomb, or at least tests a bomb, maybe.   North Korea announced that scientists had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a magnitude 5.1 earthquake was triggered near North Korea’s nuclear test site in the northeast of the country, but could not confirm that it was related to an H-bomb test.   China’s central bank set the yuan’s reference rate at an unexpectedly weak level, a reminder of the shock depreciation in August that sparked a wave of financial-market turmoil. Chinese media said that last summer’s selling ban on major shareholders would remain in place until the government publishes new rules on such sales.  The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.3 percent. Emerging-market stocks dropped to a six-year low and developing-nation currencies declined versus the dollar, while shares in Europe resumed losses after closing higher on Tuesday. Investors are continuing …

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Financial Review

Tail of the Put

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-30-2015 DOW – 117 = 17,603 SPX – 15 =  2063 NAS – 42 = 5065 10 Y – .01 = 2.30% OIL – 1.07 = 36.80 GOLD – 7.90 = 1062.10 I was away on vacation on December 16th when the Fed raised interest rates, so I want to start today by going back and taking a look at what that really means and how it might affect the economy and the markets moving into the New Year. First, let’s be clear; the Fed did not raise rates on December 16th; the Fed raised their target for the fed funds rate, which is the rate at which banks lend to each other.  That’s a technicality. The Fed will buy and sell securities to increase the cost of borrowing money across the banking system. So money is becoming more expensive for all financial institutions. And the banks and financial institutions then pass along those cost to their customers in the form of higher interest rates. Short-term and long-term rates will move higher, at least in theory, but in reality, they don’t always move higher in lockstep.   And the dollar should get even stronger as rates move higher on Treasuries and corporate bonds. The reason is simple; if you are a foreign investor and you want to buy debt that offers a higher rate you first have to trade …

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