Financial Review

Show Me the Data

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-12-2015 DOW – 254 = 17,448 SPX – 29 = 2045 NAS – 61 = 5005 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL – 1.28 = 41.65 GOLD – 1.70 = 1085.50 SILV – .11 = 14.34   Crude oil fell below $42 a barrel, its lowest price since August, while copper, gold and silver reached six-year lows. Energy, mining and metals companies fell. Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Chevron had the biggest losses in the Dow Jones Industrial average. The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are now negative for the year.   The Energy Information Administration just released its latest weekly look at the US oil market, and it shows that US crude stockpiles are just 3 million barrels off the record 490 million barrel record in April.  Crude stockpiles grew by 4.2 million barrels last week. A private report released Wednesday had shown an even larger increase. The biggest factors have been a slowdown in demand, and China’s slowdown is a big part of that equation. Meanwhile, oil producers just keep pumping; US shale production has slowed and will likely slow more, even though it remains stubbornly high; OPEC refuses to cut production and the more oil prices fall, the faster they pump.   Prices for copper and other commodities were slumping as investors anticipated that the dollar would become even stronger. The price of …

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Financial Review

A Solid Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-06-2015 DOW + 46 = 17,910 SPX – 0.73 = 2099 NAS + 19 = 5147 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.33% OIL – .68 = 44.52 The economy added 271,000 jobs in October, beating expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell from 5.1% to 5%, a 7-1/2 year low. The U.S. has added an average of 206,000 jobs a month in 2015. In the past 12 months the economy has added 2.8 million jobs. The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and under-utilized workers, dropped to 9.8% in October, the first time it’s fallen below 10% since May 2008. The number of Americans working part-time because of a weak economy fell to 5.7 million in October. Revisions to prior reports added a total of 12,000 jobs to payrolls in the previous two months. August was revised higher from 136k to 153k but September was revised lower from 142k to 137k. Still, employment only averaged 145,000 in August and September.   Now, this raises questions about why the numbers were so weak in August and September, and why the numbers for October were so strong. Was there a big shift in the labor market? Probably not; more likely this is statistical noise. It is difficult to track the labor market; it is impossible to track it with absolute precision. This does not mean the numbers are wrong. It’s …

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Financial Review

Decision Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-28-2015   DOW + 198 = 17,779 SPX + 24 = 2090 NAS + 65 = 5095 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.09% OIL + 2.93 = 46.13 GOLD – 11.30 = 1156.70 SILV + .07 = 16.04   It’s Decision Day for the Federal Reserve, and it was an easy decision. The FOMC wrapped up a two-day policy session with a statement that interest rates will remain unchanged near zero; where they have been stuck for 7 full years. The Fed’s statement left open the possibility that the Fed will raise rates at its final meeting of the year, in December. While noting that job growth has slowed, it said that other economic indicators remained relatively strong and the domestic economy “has been expanding at a moderate pace”. The Fed also signaled that its concerns about the global economy have diminished. In the statement from the meeting in September the Fed said global economic and financial developments might restrain domestic growth. In today’s statement they just say the Fed “is monitoring global economic and financial developments.”   The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Dec. 15 and 16. Fed chairwoman Janet L. Yellen said in a late September speech that she still expected to raise rates this year, as long as economic growth continued. Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice chairman, said much the same a few weeks later. Many …

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Financial Review

Denying Denial

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-26-2015 DOW – 23 = 17,623 SPX – 3 = 2071 NAS + 2 = 5034 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.06% OIL – .87 = 43.73 GOLD – 1.10 = 1163.90 SILV + .03 = 15.94   The U.S. economy has looked shaky of late, and an expected weak reading on third-quarter gross domestic product should confirm that. As a result, the Federal Reserve is again expected to keep interest rates near zero. The Fed decision, due Wednesday, and the GDP report, coming Thursday, will be the center of focus on this week’s economic calendar. Weak data almost certainly means the Fed will stick with its Zero Interest Rate Policy at this week’s meeting. The big question is whether the Fed will hint at a December move.   Also on the calendar this week is some sort of deal for the debt ceiling, which needs to be raised by November 3 in order to avoid default; and to meet the November 3 deadline, a deal needs to be reached this week. Talks have intensified between the White House and House Speaker John Boehner on a two-year budget agreement that would also increase the federal debt limit. Congressional leaders are said to be nearing an agreement, which would then need to win backing from most Democrats and at least several dozen Republicans for House passage. The deal raises …

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Financial Review

Stormy Weather

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-23-2015 DOW + 157 = 17,646 SPX + 22 = 2075 NAS + 111 = 5031 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.08% OIL – .65 = 44.73 GOLD – 1.90 = 1165.00 SILV – .03 = 15.91   After Thursday’s closing bell Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet all reported very strong third quarter earnings, and these companies are big enough to lift the entire market; today they added $80 billion in market cap. Amazon and Alphabet hit all-time highs, and Microsoft moved to its highest levels since 2000. Toss in a little central bank easy money and you’ve got one of the best two day rallies in a long time. The S&P 500 gained 2.1% for the week; its fourth straight weekly gain; moving into positive territory year to date. For the week, the Dow rose 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq gained 3 percent. Oil capped its biggest weekly decline since August as expanding U.S. crude stockpiles exacerbated a global glut, and the dollar moved higher, especially against the euro.   China’s central bank cut interest rates today for the sixth time in less than a year (down 25 basis points to 4.35 percent) , and it again lowered the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves. Monetary policy easing in the world’s second-largest economy is at its most aggressive since the 2008/09 financial crisis. The People’s Bank …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday: meh

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-02-2015 DOW + 200 = 16,472 SPX + 27 = 1951 NAS + 80 = 4707 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.99% OIL + .92 = 45.66 GOLD + 24.90 = 1139.40 SILV + .74 = 15.37   The economy added a seasonally adjusted 142,000 jobs in September, missing estimates by about 60,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%. More people dropped out of the labor force.   The Department of Labor revised the August employment numbers from 173,000, down to just 136,000.  The disappointing back-to-back employment reports were the worst pair in three years. Employment gains for July were also revised down from 245,000 to 223,000. The combined revisions for July and August lopped off 59,000 jobs from previous reports. Normally, the August jobs number is revised higher, not lower. Because of education related jobs and other variables, the August report has been notorious for upward revisions; typically at least 35,000 positions are added to the initial count. Not today. Six of the past eight reports have been revised lower in subsequent months.   Taken together, the three months averaged 167,000, a total that, while representing expansion, also signifies a major slowdown from the 260,000 per month clip for all of 2014. Moreover, at the beginning of the year, the three-month average was 312,000. Overall in 2015, job creation is now below the 200,000 milestone, sitting …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, if …

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Financial Review

To Hike or Not To Hike

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-11-2015   DOW + 102 = 16,433 SPX + 8 = 1961 NAS + 26 = 4822 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.18% OIL – 1.12 = 44.80 GOLD – 3.70 – 1108.20 SILV – .13 = 14.68   The S&P 500 index was up 2.1% for the week, the best weekly gains since July.  The Dow was up 2.1% for the week, and the Nasdaq gained 3%.   The Senate has blocked an anti-Iran deal resolution. Senate Democrats successfully fended off an effort by the Republican-led Congress to dismantle the Iran deal with a disapproval resolution. While the Senate killing the resolution should mean that Congress’s bid to undo the deal is over, the House is fighting on with several bills aimed at expressing their disapproval. There’s even talk of filing lawsuits against the president.   Russia is calling for Washington to restart direct military-to-military cooperation to avert “unintended incidents” near Syria, at a time when U.S. officials say Moscow is building up forces to protect President Bashar al-Assad’s government. The U.S. is leading a campaign of air strikes against ISIS fighters in Syrian air space, and a greater Russian presence would raise the prospect of the Cold War superpower foes encountering each other on the battlefield. Both Moscow and Washington say their enemy is ISIS, but Russia supports the government of Assad, while the U.S. says …

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Financial Review

No Rhyme nor Reason

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-08-2015   DOW + 390 = 16,492 SPX + 48 = 1969 NAS + 128 = 4811 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – .11 = 45.94 GOLD – 1.40 = 1122.40 SILV + .22 = 14.90   There is no particular rhyme nor reason to explain today’s rally on Wall Street, or for that matter, last week’s declines. Last Friday’s jobs report did little to provide clarity about whether the Fed would raise rates at next week’s FOMC meeting.   The economy added 173,000 jobs in August, which was below expectations; and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Following Friday’s employment data, futures market traders predicted about a 20 percent chance a rate hike will come this month, down from around 30 percent before the jobs report. I think the Fed might act next week, just to clear the air. If you remember back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when the markets became jittery about the prospect of the end of Quantitative Easing, the anticipation was worse than the actual event. So, the easiest thing might just be to do it and be done.   Of course, it is easy to argue against a rate hike. The U-6 unemployment rate is still around 10.3%; some people consider this the “real” unemployment rate because it includes part-time employees seeking full-time jobs and marginally employed workers. The …

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Financial Review

Labor Day Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-04-2015 DOW – 272 = 16,102 SPX – 29 = 1921 NAS – 49 = 4683 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.13% OIL – .71 = 46.04 GOLD – 2.30 = 1123.70 SILV – .13 = 14.70   This is a Jobs Report Friday, and I tend to get a little wonkish about the monthly jobs reports, mainly because I believe jobs are pretty much the most important part of the economy; we’ve even set aside a holiday to recognize the importance of labor. Today’s report is especially important because it comes right before a Federal Open Market Committee Meeting where the Fed just might raise interest rates.   The US economy added 173,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. While this was the smallest increase in new jobs since March, the June and July numbers were revised higher by 44,000 jobs. The Labor Department said 245,000 new jobs were created in July instead of 215,000. June’s gain was revised up to 245,000 from 231,000. The 173,000 new jobs missed estimates of 210,000 to 220,000 but the August numbers are notorious for underestimating – only to be revised higher in following months. The unemployment rate of 5.1% is down from July’s 5.3% rate, and beats estimates that the rate would hold steady.   Between 2005 and 2014, August was the month with the lowest …

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