Financial Review

The Vultures Eat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-29-2016   DOW – 123 = 16,516 SPX – 15 = 1932 NAS – 32 = 4557 10 Y – .02 = 1.74% OIL + 1.12 = 33.90 GOLD + 16.50 = 1239.30   If you missed the past month, you might think things were calm on Wall Street for the month of February. For the month, the Dow rose 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1.2 percent. This marks the first time since 2011 that major indexes posted three consecutive monthly declines.   Chinese shares closed at one-month lows. China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves for the fifth time since last February. The yuan hit a three week low. China expects to lay off 1.8 million coal and steel workers.    A weekend meeting of G20 finance chiefs ended without a plan to spur global growth. The G20 issued a statement which basically said the global economy is not as bad as the doomsayers think. G20 finance ministers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals; but there was no plan for coordinated stimulus. Participants also repeated previous pledges not to engage in competitive currency devaluations and promised to “consult closely” on exchange markets. Those pledges might not last long, and the Euro Union …

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Financial Review

Glitch/Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 163 = 17,568 SPX – 22 = 2079 NAS – 57 = 5088 10 YR YLD un 2.27% OIL – .31 = 48.14 GOLD + 9.10 = 1100.50 SILV + .08 = 14.84   Well, this turned out to be an ugly week. The Dow lost 600 points from the high a week ago. The Dow lost 2.8% on the week, dropping below its 200 day moving average. The S&P lost 2.1%; Nasdaq down 2.2%. The Russell 3000 was down 3.1% for the week. Amazon gave back about half of yesterday’s gain. Crude oil hit a 4-month low.   And if you are not quite sure what to make of the markets, that is understandable; they aren’t going up and they aren’t going down, we are in a sideways market; this might be the mother of all sideways markets. The Dow is in slightly negative territory year to date. The Dow has moved on either side of breakeven 21 times so far this year. According to research from Bespoke Investment, no other year has been so fickle, the closest being the 20 times the blue chip index swung in both 1934 and 1994. The S&P 500 went through the first half of the year without moving more than 3.5 percent in either direction.   Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold …

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Financial Review

Into the Ditch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW -181 = 17,919 SPX – 9 = 2119 NAS -10 = 5208 10 YR YLD – 3 = 2.34% OIL + .21 = 50.36 GOLD + 3.30 = 1102.00 SILV + .18 = 14.95     Earnings reporting season continues with about one-quarter of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week. Among the gainers: Harley Davidson posted second quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations, Travelers posted a second-quarter profit that was better than expected, due to fewer losses from catastrophes. Among the decliners: United Technologies issued a profit warning and announced that its aerospace and elevator units will be below expectations due to a strong dollar and China’s economic slump, IBM’s second quarter earnings fell 17% and revenue dropped 13%, Verizon posted better than expected earnings but revenue missed estimates, Lexmark swung to a loss and announced it will cut 500 jobs.   The big news in earnings came from some of the biggest names: Apple and Microsoft. Apple sold 47.5 million iPhones, a 35 percent gain, in the period that ended in June. Analysts had anticipated 48.8 million shipments. Net income in the fiscal third quarter, which ended in June, was $10.7 billion, or $1.85 a share, while revenue rose 33 percent to $49.6 billion. Analysts on average had forecast third-quarter profit of $1.81 a share on sales of $49.4 billion. The gross margin was 39.7 percent, …

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Financial Review

Wisdom of Solomon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 107 = 17,791 SPX – 9 = 2084 NAS – 21 = 5029 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.36% OIL – .44 = 59.52 GOLD + 4.90 = 1187.20 SILV + .12 = 16.17   Debt discussions between Greece and its European creditors collapsed last night; talks broke down after just 45 minutes. It is believed that Greece has until the eurogroup meeting on Thursday to agree on a deal or the risk of default grows enormously. It takes time for any deal to pass through parliaments and therefore any deal beyond 18 June meeting may delay payments being made to Greece to beyond the end of the month.   The other key event this week is the Fed FOMC meeting and while few people now anticipate a rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting, there could be hints that it will come in September which could spark further volatility in the markets. Despite a slow start to the year, the data is improving and we’re now seeing rising wages and spending which is necessary if inflation is going to reach the Fed’s target within the forecasting period. This month’s decision will also be accompanied by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen; if nothing else, that means Yellen has a good opportunity to float some trial balloons.   The reality is that growth has been tepid despite …

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Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data …

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Financial Review

More Than Bad Weather

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 28 = 18,011 SPX – 2 = 2109 NAS – 6 = 5076 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.27% OIL + .84 = 61.04 GOLD + 3.90 = 1193.70 SILV + .04 = 16.85   It has been a busy day for central bankers. The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering its key repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, even though the Indian economy has become one of the fastest-growing in the world. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at a record low of 2.0% today, in line with expectations. The Bank of Japan is also meeting today; the Nikkei Index snapped its 12-day record run, ending its longest winning streak since February 1988.   Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard says economic data does not point to a significant second quarter bounce. Brainard is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee and she says the slowdown is more than just bad weather in the first quarter; she cited the strong dollar. Brainard says net exports subtracted “a whopping” 1.9 percentage points from first quarter GDP. On the jobs side, the pace of gains has slowed, and wage growth remains soft. Consumers, for their part, are not inclined to spend their gas price windfalls. Brainard says she would oppose raising interest rates at the …

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Financial Review

Fuld Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 115 = 18,010 SPX – 13 = 2107 NAS – 27 = 5070 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.09% OIL + 2.62 = 60.30 GOLD + 2.20 = 1191.00 SILV + .04 = 16.80   The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 115 points lower after falling more than 150 points during the session. The blue chip index posted a 0.9 percent gain for May. The S&P 500 ended up 1.1 percent for the month, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 2.6 percent monthly gain.   Year to date the Dow Industrials are up about 1 percent, the S&P 500 is up about 2 percent, and the Nasdaq is up about 7%. This has been an extremely tight trading range to start the year. Another way to look at it is consolidation. And at some point the markets will break out of this tight range. The question is whether it will be a breakout or a breakdown. And if you’re looking for a divergent signal, the Dow Transports traded down for the day, for a 3.4 percent loss in May. The index is down 9 percent for the year.   Today’s big economic report was that first quarter Gross Domestic Product in the U.S. shrank at a 0.7 percent annualized rate, revised lower from a previously reported 0.2 percent gain. The revisions showed the trade gap widened …

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Financial Review

Lie or Be Lehman

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 18,162 SPX + 19 = 2123 NAS + 73 = 5106 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.13% OIL – .38 = 57.65 GOLD + .20 = 1189.00 SILV – .07 = 16.75   Yesterday the Dow posted a triple digit loss, today a triple digit gain; not enough to cover yesterday’s losses. The Nasdaq was higher on strength in semiconductor stocks; the Nasdaq posted a new record high close, taking out the high from April 24. The dollar was slightly stronger, oil was down again.   Severe storms and devastating floods over the weekend in Texas and Oklahoma have killed at least 19 people. Another 14 people are missing in Texas, including eight members of two families whose vacation home was swept away. The flooding has also resulted in complications for business travelers. About 11 inches of rain fell in Houston on Monday while parts of Austin have been hit by as much as 7 inches. Helicopter crews in both cities rescued people who had been stranded in cars and on top of buildings. The National Weather Service issued a new flash flood warning today.   The IRS says tax return information for about 100,000 U.S. taxpayers was illegally accessed by cyber criminals over the past four months. The stolen information included tax returns and other tax information on file with the IRS. The IRS said …

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Financial Review

Thursday, June 12, 2014 – The Beautiful Game

The Beautiful Game by Sinclair Noe DOW – 109 = 16,734 SPX – 13 = 1930 NAS – 34 = 4297 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.59% OIL + 2.51 = 106.91 GOLD + 12.70 = 1274.30 SILV + .34 = 19.63   This is a big day for sports fans. In the US, many fans are thinking about the NBA playoffs or the start of the US Open golf championship, but those games are small potatoes compared to the World Cup. Over the next month, the World Cup will attract about 4 billion television viewers, maybe more when we consider all the digital devices that can replay the games; that’s more than the 3.6 billion viewers who watched the Beijing Olympic games; more than the 3.2 billion that watched the 2010 World Cup. By comparison, the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl managed a record 111 million viewers. The cumulative viewership for all the matches over the next month might top 35 billion. It’s a corporate marketing bonanza.   Over the next month, there will be countries across the globe that will quite literally shut down for 90 minutes intervals. Courts will delay hearing cases, hospitals will not schedule surgeries, offices and retail outlets and factories will shut down, the crime rate will drop, the streets will empty with almost zero traffic, planes stop flying, and trains stop running. I’ve seen it happen; and because I am blessed to be married to a lovely Brazilian woman, I have been caught up …

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