Uncategorized

Tuesday, January 08, 2013 – Thank You, America

Thank You, America DOW – 55 = 13,328SPX – 4 = 1457NAS – 7 = 309110 YR YLD -.03 = 1.87%OIL +.06 = 93.25GOLD + 13.20 = 1661.10SILV + .24 = 30.50 Some people have debated what we should do if the banks get into trouble again; should they be bailed out? The Too Big to Fail Banks of 2008 are even bigger today, and if one collapses, then there would likely be a cascading effect through the global financial system. So, if a big financial institution gets into trouble, should there be a bailout, or do we just say “tough luck”? You probably have an opinion, and reasonable people can debate the issue, or at least there could be room for reasonable debate, until now. As of today, there is no more debate. If you go to Webster’s Dictionary and look up the word “ingrate”, you will find a picture of Maurice “Hank” Greenberg; the guy who founded American International Group, AIG, the huge insurance company that in 2008 accepted a $182 billion dollar bailout from the Treasury. Hank Greenberg, the former CEO of AIG is contending in a lawsuit that the government treated the company’s shareholders too harshly when carrying out its 2008 rescue of the insurance giant. AIG is weighing whether to join the lawsuit, filed by Mr. Greenberg’s investment firm, Starr International Company, which owns about 12% of AIG. In addition to founding AIG, Greenberg gained notoriety for a high profile fraud case in 2005 that …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, January 7, 2013 – I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed

I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 50 = 13,384SPX – 4 = 1461NAS – 2 = 309810 YR YLD -.01 = 1.90%OIL + .21 = 93.30GOLD – 9.90 = 1647.90SILV – .02 = 30.26 Forty years ago, Yale Hirsch at the Stock Traders Almanac, created the January Barometer. The idea was simple: as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. This market prediction tool has been correct 89% of the time since 1950, suffering only seven major setbacks. Since 1950, stocks have finished lower for the year only three times after posting gains in January. When the Dow is positive in January, then the rest of the year is positive 83% of the time, averaging additional gains of 9.59%. Compare that to the Dow’s performance when January is negative. In those years, the February-December returns are positive just half of the time, with an average gain of 2.04%. As with the full-year results, a positive January typically leads to a positive February. When the Dow closes higher in January, February goes on to average a return of 0.57%, and is positive 63% of the time. When January is negative, February is negative more than half the time, and averages a loss of more than 1%. However, an outsized return in January has not necessarily translated into a bigger return for February. If January is up more than 3.5%, the average February gain is not as big as if January is …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, December 18, 2012 – Blame It On Whatever You Want

Blame It On Whatever You Want by Sinclair Noe DOW + 115 = 13,350 SPX + 16 = 1446NAS + 43 = 305410 YR YLD +.06 = 1.83%OIL + .79 = 87.99GOLD – 27.20 = 1671.90SILV – .64 = 31.74 The markets rallied on news the fiscal cliff negotiations are closer to a resolution. No, no, wait a minute; the markets experienced a Santa Claus Rally. No, no, wait a minute; just make up whatever excuse you want. No, no, wait a minute; the Federal Reserve announced QE4 last week, even though we’re not supposed to call it QE4, and they are just printing money like banshees, although I’m not sure banshees know how to print money, but the point is they are juicing the economy to the tune of $85 billion a month, and you know that has to have some sort of effect. Why sure; all this money just has to end up in the stock market eventually. You might also expect the dollar to fall. You might also have expected additional strength in the government bond market, because $85 billion pretty much covers all of the expected new issuance going forward, plus many entities still need to buy U.S. bonds for a variety of fiduciary reasons. With little product for sale and lots of bids by various players; one of which, the Fed, has their own printing press and so money is no object in the move to drive prices higher and yields lower; that’s a recipe …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, December 17, 2012 – Unconnected Dots

Unconnected Dots by Sinclair Noe DOW + 100 = 13,235SPX + 16 = 1430NAS + 39 = 301010 YR YLD +.05 = 1.76%OIL +.71 = 87.44GOLD + 1.90 = 1699.10SILV -.03 = 32.38 President Obama and House Speaker Boehner met at the White House today. Aides from both parties said they were optimistic that a deal could be reached in the coming days to avert the “fiscal cliff,” as lawmakers set the stage for action before a year-end deadline. A senior Republican aide said: “There’s been too much progress at this point and neither guy wants to go over the cliff.” Although both sides still had major differences, investors were cheered by signs of progress. Major market indices moved higher in the afternoon, and some of that was the feel good part of the news cycle; we certainly need some good news. Now, we sit back and see whether it was yet another rumor. Boehner, the speaker of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, has edged closer to Obama’s demand to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In return, Obama is considering a measure that would slow the rate of growth of Social Security retirement benefits by changing the way they are measured against inflation. Boehner has put forward a tax increase for those earning over $1 million annually, while Obama wants that threshold set at $250,000. Republicans could probably stomach a tax hike on incomes above $500,000. Boehner could float the broad outlines of a deal with rank-and-file members on …

READ MORE →

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 – Life is Beautiful and Easy

Life is Beautiful and Easy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 13,245SPX +0.64 = 1428NAS – 8 = 301310 YR YLD +.05 = 1.70%OIL +.99 = 86.78GOLD + 1.20 = 1712.60SILV +. 45 = 33.55 And now, the DC Players present: The Grinch Who Stole Christmas, starring John Boehner. Speaking to reporters this morning, Boehner said: “We’re going to stay here right up until Christmas Eve, throughout the time and period before the New Year, because we want to make sure that we resolve this in an acceptable way for the American people.” Yesterday, we told you reporters in Washington were optimistic a deal could be reached; and we told you that story literally dripping with sarcasm, because we were fairly certain it was just idiot reporters projecting their own fantasy that they could spend the holidays with family and people posing as friends; it was a last gasp hope to shame inept and incompetent politicians to get a deal done. It didn’t work. Republicans and the White House appeared no closer to a deal, as both sides pressed each other to cede ground. Republicans want to extract spending cuts from the White House while the Obama administration is demanding that taxes go up for the wealthiest 2% of Americans. Wow, I just had a feeling of deja vu. It’s almost like I’ve heard this before. Washington has a way of diverting the nation’s attention on tactical games over partisan maneuvers that are symptoms of a few really big …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 – If Banks Could Kill They Probably Will

If Banks Could Kill They Probably Will by Sinclair Noe DOW + 78 = 13,248SPX + 9 = 1427NAS + 35 = 302210YR YLD +.03 = 1.65%OIL +.09 = 85.65GOLD – 2.20 = 1711.40SILV – .27 = 33.10 If all goes according to plan, in about 13 days, a star will rise in the east somewhere over Washington DC, signaling the birth of a new budget deal. If you’re waiting for three wise men, don’t hold your breath, because they couldn’t find them in our nation’s capitol. With just days to go before the nation slides down the fiscal Cliff Clavin of tax increases and spending cuts mandated by our confederacy of dunces to take effect with the passing of the arbitrary date on a calendar, there are signs that a deal to avoid the slide is near. Pert’ near every reporter in Washington says a deal is imminent. Just this Sunday, Obama and Boehner met in secret, well, not exactly a secret, and they did something, maybe they came up with a deal, maybe they barbequed some brats and watched some football, but their silence on the subject speaks volumes. Their silence almost provides proof positive that a bipartisan deal must be something that might have possibly been a part of the silent conversation, or not; but hey, it looks like a deal, except for all those pesky details. And it only took two years, possibly, of unnecessary uncertainty and sovereign debt downgrades to hammer out an agreement to …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, December 5, 2012 – I Have Copyrighted the Term “Fiscal Cliff”. Pay Up!

I Have Copyrighted the Term “Fiscal Cliff”. Pay Up! by Sinclair Noe DOW + 82 = 13,034SPX + 2 = 1409NAS – 22 = 297310 YR YLD – .02 = 1.59%OIL – .62 = 87.88GOLD – 2.50 = 1695.30 SILV unch = 33.01 Let’s take a look at the economic news. The ISM services index moved up to 54.7% in November from 54.2% in October; indicating expansion in the services side of the economy. Earlier this week, the ISM said its manufacturing index fell back into negative territory for the fourth time in six months. Third quarter productivity rose a revised 2.9%, the fastest rate in two years, compared to a first reading of 1.9%. Workers produced goods and services more efficiently than the first estimate suggested. This is an important number because it gives the Federal Reserve some wiggle room to continue to pump money into the Mortgage backed securities market, without the fear of inflation. It also means businesses are squeezing more output out of each worker, and so it reflects a reluctance to hire or raise wages. Payroll processor ADP says employers added 118,000 jobs last month. That’s below October’s total of 157,000, which was revised lower; mostly because Hurricane Sandy shut down factories, retail stores, and other companies. The ADP report might provide clues about the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due on Friday. That report is expected to show the unemployment rate climbing to 8% from 7.9%. There is little sign yet that business concerns over potential …

READ MORE →

Tuesday, December 4, 2012 – The Clock is Ticking

The Clock is Ticking by Sinclair Noe DOW – 13 = 12,951SPX – 2 = 1407 NAS – 5 = 299610 YR YLD – .02 = 1.61%OIL – .71 = 88.38GOLD – 19.20 = 1697.80SILV – .75 = 33.01 So, President Obama presented an opening offer in the fiscal cliff talks; Speaker Bohener said it wasn’t serious and the financial and political reporters passed along the complaint that it was a recycled version of an old plan; before the election those same reporters spent the year passing along the complaint that Obama had no plan. Then Obama complained that the Republicans didn’t have a counter offer, and they finally came up with a counter but it didn’t have any specifics, but one area is that they want cuts to Medicare, even though before the election they were outraged that Obama was cutting Medicare. The current Republican position seems to be that the fiscal cliff’s instant austerity would destroy the economy, which is odd after four years of Republican clamoring for austerity, and that the cliff’s military spending cuts in particular would kill jobs, which is even odder after four years of Republican insistence that government spending can’t create jobs. And remember, this is all about the debt ceiling and tax cuts and spending cuts. And the political and financial reporters pass all this stuff on, with a countdown clock ticking in the lower right screen. It’s irresponsible reporting. Mainstream media outlets don’t want to look partisan, so they ignore the …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, December 3, 2012 – Still in the Woods and Other Economic News

Still in the Woods and Other Economic News by Sinclair Noe DOW – 59 = 12,965SPX – 6 = 1409NAS – 8 = 300210 YR YLD + .02 = 1.63%OIL +.01 = 88.92GOLD + .80 = 1717.00SILV + .22 = 33.76 Let’s start with the economic news. Business among manufacturers contracted in November and fell to the lowest level in more than three years. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of purchasing managers dropped to 49.5% from 51.7% in October. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. The decline in the overall ISM index largely reflected a steep drop in new orders but companies remained active fulfilling prior orders. Only six of the 18 U.S. manufacturing industries surveyed by ISM said they expanded somewhat faster in November. Nearly twice as many said their industries contracted. In the euro zone, manufacturers contracted for the 16th straight month, according to Markit. China’s manufacturing sector expanded slightly. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said spending on construction projects advanced 1.4% in October to the highest level since September 2009. The big economic news will come on Friday with the monthly jobs report. The best guess is that the economy added about 75,000 jobs in November, but that is just a guess; Hurricane Sandy has distorted some of the economic numbers. The fourth quarter of 2012 has clearly gotten off to a slow start. Consumer spending, by far the biggest source of economic growth, fell in October for the first …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, November 28, 2012 – If They Don’t Jump, I Might Push Them

If They Don’t Jump, I Might Push Them by Sinclair Noe DOW + 106 = 12,985SPX + 10 = 1409NAS + 23 = 299110 YR YLD – .03 = 1.62%OIL – .52 = 86.66GOLD – 22.00 = 1720.80SILV – .28 = 33.87 I am getting so sick and tired of this fiscal cliff malarkey* (* a politically acceptable euphemism, according to the debates), that I would like to throw some politicians off a fiscal cliff; maybe we could toss in a few media types as well. Today, I hear that stocks moved higher because John Boehner, the Speaker of the House, said he was optimistic about not going over the cliff. Really? That’s all it takes for stocks to post triple digit gains? Maybe tomorrow, Mr. Boehner can tell us he is both optimistic, and confident, and chipper, and slightly perky, and everything in his universe is copacetic; and the markets could celebrate with a monster rally. I don’t think this is the real motivation for market moves but it might be, but I don’t think so. On Friday, President Obama will hit the road to promote his version of fiscal cliff avoidance. Business executives and others who’ve met with President Barack Obama in recent days describe a president who’s supremely confident that he’ll come out on top of a fiscal cliff deal; with Republicans bending to his will on tax increases for the wealthy and Democrats sucking up deep spending cuts. You have to wonder about the austerity advice …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, November 26, 2012 – Shopping, Cliffs, Greece, Two-Tiered Justice, Doha, Infrastructure

Shopping, Cliffs, Greece, Two-Tiered Justice, Doha, Infrastructureby Sinclair Noe DOW – 42 = 12,967SPX – 2 = 1406NAS + 9 = 297610 YR YLD -.03 = 1.66%OIL + 1.22 = 86.67GOLD – 2.50 = 1750.40SILV + .05 = 34.28 Well, I survived Black Friday, which actually creeped into Black Thursday; I made it through Shop Small Saturday, and I’ve arrived at Cyber Monday. Tomorrow will be Buyers’ Remorse Tuesday. Don’t forget Credit Card Shock January. I have not and will not go into debt for the holidays. Consumer debt is the worst. A rebound in housing and the job market, along with a drop in household debt, has led additional consumers to say they’ll buy more this holiday. A new survey from the Credit Union National Association and the Consumer Federation of America shows 12 percent said they would boost spending, the highest level since 15 percent in 2007, while 38 percent said they would spend less. According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales for the weekend are up about 13% from a year ago. Online shopping on Black Friday rose 26 percent to exceed $1 billion for the first time. Spending in stores and online rose to $59 billion in the four days starting Nov. 22. Customers spent $423 on average this weekend, up 6.3 percent from last year. The 13 percent jump in total spending suggests that some sales were pulled ahead from December and that retailers will have to keep up the promotions to avoid a …

READ MORE →

Wednesday, November 21, 2012 – Of Cliffs and Helicopters

Of Cliffs and Helicoptersby Sinclair Noe DOW + 48 = 12,836 SPX + 3 = 1391NAS + 9 = 292610 YR YLD +.03 = 1.69%OIL + .95 = 86.40GOLD + 1.10 = 1730.20SILV + .20 = 33.49 Israel and Hamas agreed to bring to an end more than a week of air strikes and missile attacks. A truce was declared; now we’ll see if it holds. The agreement aims to halt air strikes that have left more than 150 people dead in Gaza and rocket attacks that have killed five Israelis. Israel has hit more than 1,500 targets, and Palestinians launched more than 1,400 missiles. Secreatary of State Hillary Clinton said that she welcomed the accord and expressed hope it will “move us closer to a comprehensive peace.” “In the days ahead, the United States will work with partners across the region to consolidate this progress, improve conditions for the people of Gaza, and provide security for the people of Israel,” she said. The accord says that Israel shall stop all hostilities on the Gaza Strip, land, sea and air, including incursions and targeting of individuals. It also says that “all Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the Gaza Strip against Israel, including rocket attacks and attacks along the border.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked President Obama and Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi for their work to end the violence. There was tremendous US pressure on the Egyptians, who in turn pressured Hamas to accept terms which are not set …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, November 20, 2012 – Extracting Meaning

Extracting Meaning by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 12,788SPX +0.92 = 1387NAS + 0.61 = 291610 YR YLD + .04 = 1.66%OIL + 1.22 = 86.67 GOLD – 3.80 = 1729.10SILV + .08 = 33.29 There may be a ceasefire in the Middle East. An official for Hamas says a ceasefire deal has been reached. Officials for Israel and Egypt say not quite, some details are being worked out. Israel pressed on with its strikes in Gaza on the seventh day of its offensive and Palestinian rockets still flashed across the border. Secretary of State Clinton is in Israel to help broker a deal. A ceasefire may be announced within the hour, but that would just be a small step; actually enforcing the ceasefire would be more telling. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke delivered a speech today to the New York Economic Club. Bernanke said one reason the recovery has been so disappointing is that the financial crisis appears to have lowered, at least for a time, how fast the economy can grow over the long run. The crisis has reduced labor force participation and lowered productivity as businesses have trimmed investment. This suggests that the nation’s potential output has grown more slowly than expected in recent years. Potential output combines the economy’s long-run productivity rate and labor force growth. This means the economy has to grow faster than potential to bring down the unemployment rate. In some ways, this is Bernanke making the case against austerity and for stimulus. …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, November 19, 2012 – Debtmageddon: the Non-Problem Problem

Debtmageddon: the Non-Problem Problem by Sinclair Noe DOW + 207 = 12,795SPX + 27 = 1386NAS + 62 = 291610 YR YLD +.04 = 1.61%OIL + 1.22 = 86.67GOLD + 18.20 = 1732.90 SILV + .80 = 33.21 Pete Domenici and Alice Rivlin are co-chairs of the Bipartisan Policy Center for Debt Reduction Task Force, offering the following recommendations in an article in the New York Times over the weekend: Economic growth must precede full-scale debt restraint. Congress should take action now to pass legislation phasing in tax reform that yields new revenues and restructuring entitlements to curb the continued growth of federal spending, particularly for health care. We cannot resort to such ham-handed mechanisms as the approaching sequester cuts, large across-the-board tax increases and other elements of the “fiscal cliff.” In late 2010, the task force recommended a holiday from the full 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax, not the partial 2 percent cut that Congress ultimately passed. The idea is that whether it comes in the form of a payroll tax holiday, an income tax rebate or another similar mechanism, the most pressing priority is to get the economy out of “stall speed.” The task force also suggested a possible “framework” for the lame-duck Congress to pass a modest down payment on deficit reduction in December, while pursuing a comprehensive agreement, a “grand bargain” of sorts, in 2013. If I may break it down in a nutshell; growth before austerity. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke will travel …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, November 16, 2012 – Externality and Inequality

Externality and Inequality by Sinclair Noe DOW + 45 = 12,588SPX + 6 = 1359NAS + 16 = 285310 YR YLD -.02 = 1.57%OIL + 1.05 = 86.50GOLD – 2.40 = 1714.70SILV – .29 = 32.41 Top Congressional leaders met with President Obama today at the White House. Democrats said they recognized the need to curb spending. Republicans said they agreed to put revenue on the table. They sang a chorus of Kumbaya; they left the meeting and talked to the press. Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid all shared the microphone; both sides pledged cooperation; both sides agreed that driving over the fiscal cliff was a big bucket of crazy; no blood was shed today. Don’t hold your breath. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan says allowing taxes to rise would be a small price to pay to get lawmakers to accept spending cuts on entitlement programs, even if it leads to a moderate recession. So, what is on the negotiating table is starting to emerge, even though the goal posts are still moving targets. What is most interesting at this point is not the proposals that are on the table but the proposals that never make it to the table. How can we really have a debt to GDP ratio problem when we have a non-convertible fiat currency, a floating exchange rate and debts in currencies not our own? Yea, that isn’t going to be part of the discussion. And that brings us to …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, November 13, 2012 – Roll With It

Roll With It by Sinclair Noe DOW – 58 = 12,756SPX – 5 = 1374NAS – 20 = 288310 YR YLD -.02 = 1.59%OIL -.20 = 85.37GOLD – 3.90 = 1725.90SILV +.08 = 32.60 Both sides in the “fiscal cliff” debate stood their ground today as they gathered in Washington for the first time since the elections. It’s a high stakes game of chicken. The White House made clear it was ready to negotiate with Republicans on taxes and spending, but a spokesman for President Obama said he will not budge on insisting that the wealthy’s tax rates must rise in 2013. The president wants to extend low individual income tax rates beyond year’s end for 98 percent of Americans. On the Senate floor, Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said his party was open to discussing new government revenues, but not raising tax rates. Groups concerned with protecting entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare are finding themselves at odds over whether an overarching fiscal deal during Congress’s end-of-year session would help or hurt their cause. A “grand bargain” to prevent the year-end onset of tax hikes and spending cuts “could cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits, all to give tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.” I seriously doubt Republicans have the clout, following the elections, to make a full-on attack against the entitlement programs. In fact, it seems the only one who could attack the social safety net programs is President Obama. He may have been convinced by Wall …

READ MORE →

Monday, November 12, 2012 – Render Unto Caesar, and Don’t Forget Interest

Render Unto Caesar, and Don’t Forget InterestBy Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.31 = 12,815SPX + 0.18 = 1380NAS -0.62 = 290410 YR YLD = 1.60%OIL – .50 = 85.57GLD – 2.00 = 1729.80SLV – .21 = 32.52 British lawmakers have criticized executives of Starbucks, Google and Amazon on Monday for not paying more tax in Britain and Amazon said it had received a $252 million demand for back taxes from France. Britain and Germany last week announced plans to push the Group of 20 economic powers to make multinational companies pay their “fair share” of taxes following reports of large firms exploiting loopholes to avoid taxes. One of the members of Parliament explained the problem: “You’re either running the business badly, or there’s some fiddle going on.” Starbucks seems to be selling a lot of coffee in the UK; over the past 3 years they’ve sold more than 3 billion pounds (weight) of coffee but they haven’t paid any tax. (fiddle) Amazon just refuses to answer questions by the British tax authorities.(fiddle) And Google has apparently been playing the game. Google’s filings show it had $4 billion of sales in the UK last year, but despite having a group-wide profit margin of 33 percent, its main UK unit reported a loss in 2011 and 2010. It had a tax charge of just 3.4 million pounds in 2011. (fiddle) The search engine provider books European sales via an Irish unit, an arrangement that allowed it to pay taxes at a rate of …

READ MORE →

Friday, November 9, 2012 – Thank a Veteran

Thank a Veteran by Sinclair Noe DOW + 4 = 12,815 SPX + 2 = 1379 NAS + 9 = 2904 10 YR YLD -.02 = 1.61% OIL + 1.06 = 86.15 GOLD – 1.10 = 1731.80 SILV + .32 = 32.73 Speaker of the House John Boehner held a press conference this morning. Boehner repeated that House Republicans won’t agree to higher income-tax rates but said they would be open to limiting tax breaks as part of an agreement with Democrats. A couple of hours later, President Obama said any deal would have to result in wealthy Americans paying more in taxes. Following up, Obama’s spokesman said later that the president would veto any legislation extending tax cuts for families making $250,000 or more.  Obama said he had invited congressional leaders of both parties to the White House next week for their first post-election negotiations. Their assignment: don’t go over the fiscal cliff; avert the tax increases and automatic spending cuts due to hit in January.  Both sides agree that failure to address the automatic tax increases and spending cuts could cripple the economy. The congressional budget analysis said the automatic tax increases and spending cuts would cut the deficit by $503 billion through next September but the fiscal austerity would cause the economy to shrink by 0.5 percent next year and would cost millions of jobs. The new study estimates that the nation’s gross domestic product would grow by 2.2 percent next year if all Bush-era tax rates …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, October 10, 2012 – Great Fun and Very Entertaining

Great Fun and Very Entertaining -by Sinclair Noe DOW – 128 = 13,344SPX – 8 = 1432NAS – 13 = 305110 YR YLD – .03 = 1.69% OIL – 1.04 = 91.35 GOLD – 1.30 = 1763.60SILV +.08 = 34.08 PLAT – 13.00 = 1678.00(to listen to audio visit Financial Review at MoneyRadio.com) It’s earnings season. Chevron took a hit after announcing third quarter earnings would be substantially lower. Alcoa took a hit because law suits and remediation costs are part of their business model and not one time exclusions. FedEx announced it will fire workers and park planes to cut $1.7 in expenses. S&P cut Spain’s sovereign credit rating to BBB-minus, just a notch above junk status. Less than 4 weeks to the election. Tomorrow we can watch the vice-presidential debate. It’s all great fun and very entertaining. Last week, the first presidential debate produced a bump in the polls for Romney. The latestPew Research Center poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of President Barack Obama among likely voters, 49% to 45%. But the latest Gallup poll shows President Obama leading Romney among likely voters, 50% to 45%. If you’re wondering about the discrepancy, the reason is simple. The Pew poll covered the days immediately following last Wednesday’s presidential debate, but it didn’t include last weekend. The Gallup poll, included the weekend and that means it also included Friday’s September’s jobs report which showed unemployment down to 7.8 percent for the first time in more than three years.Romney got a bump …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, August 22, 2012 – QE Soon, Inequality Grows

QE Soon, Inequality Grows– by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 13,172SPX + 0.32 = 1413NAS + 6 = 307310 YR YLD -.09 = 1.72%OIL – .28 = 96.40GOLD + 15.50 = 1655.10SILV + .50 = 29.93PLAT + 26.00 = 1541.00 The Federal Reserve released minutes of their most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Here’s the money quote from the FOMC minutes: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” In other words, a majority of the FOMC members think it is time for QE3, unless we see an economic miracle, say hallelujah! So, when will they make an announcement? Well, there is a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 31. There is another FOMC meeting September 12 and 13. The language in today’s minutes is not a guarantee of QE3, but if they do not make an announcement of QE3, then the lack of action will be interpreted as highly political and obstructionist. They have now obligated themselves to some sort of accommodation; it might not be called QE3, but a rose by any other name… The economy is ready for help; GDP is growing at less than 2%; inflation is running less than 2%; unemployment is lingering at 8.3%; Europe could implode and hurt the US economy. So, what will happen when the Fed provides additional monetary accommodation? Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther …

READ MORE →