Financial Review

Hangover

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-08-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Fed stands pat on rates. Oil enters bear market. Court rules DACA must continue. Mass shootings as a health issue. Earnings season: Disney, Roku, TripAdvisor and Hertz. Ford and VW talk alliance. Sears closing more stores. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-08-2018

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Financial Review

Facebook Cracks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-25-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks rally on hope for trade agreement with EU. Facebook slammed on earnings. Tariffs hit multiple companies 2Q earnings. New home sales drop. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-25-2018

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Financial Review

Decision Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-26-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Major stock indexes hit all-time highs, again. Fed holds steady. Senate votes and votes, again. Trump v. Transgendered. New home sales up. Copper squeeze. Facebook ubiquitous. Boeing flying high. UK electric. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-26-2017

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Financial Review

Too Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-20-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Why flights were canceled in PHX. Oil in bear market. Fed heads dovish, more or less. Account deficit grows. Ford to China. China to EEM. Tesla not at fault. Russia-Iran sanctions glitch. Barclays behaving badly. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-20-2017

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Financial Review

Send in the Clowns

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..1Q earnings season winds down. CBO scores AHCA. Pause on cost-sharing subsidies case. Trump tour sells big in Saudi Arabia. SCOTUS whacks patent trolls. NC must undo gerrymandering. Ford gets new CEO – share price is Job One. Huntsman-Clariant. Midwest fields flood. Citi’s Banamex laundered money in Mexico. The circus closes its tent. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-22-2017

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Financial Review

A Tale of Two Markets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-16-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Record high for Nasdaq. Markets look past White House dysfunction. Tech and everything else. China is a worry. Housing starts tick down. Industrial production picks up. Ford – job cuts are number one. Home Depot beats on earnings but the rest of retail sucks. Cyber-attack blame game. Pirates of the box office.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-16-2017

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Financial Review

A Deluge and an Eclipse

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-27-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Earnings flood: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Intel, Starbucks, UPS, Ford, American Air, Southwest, etc. ECB holds steady. Trump will stay in Nafta. West Virginia moves to renewables. An eclipsing stamp. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-27-2017

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Financial Review

Bad Optics

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-03-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  …..Strong start for trading in the New Year. Technical and fundamental considerations. ISM manufacturing closes 2016 on high note. Construction spending at multi-year high. 115th Congress first order – let the fox guard the chicken coop and then flip flop. Ford folds in the face of bad optics. Samsung S8 might replace your computer. Space X countdown to Sunday. Fewer new drugs last year. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-03-2017

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Financial Review

Relatively Soon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..CPI shows inflation. Jobless claims plummet. AZ unemployment dips. Yellen says rate hike relatively soon. The Minneapolis Plan to avoid another bank bailout and break up the big banks (that’s a bonus). Abe in search of a transition team. Tesla-Solar City – done deal. SpaceX satellite plan. Citi Australia goes cashless. JPMorgan’s Chinese bribe. Wells Fargo loses customers. Valeant-Philidor execs arrested. Ford in India. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2016

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Financial Review

Probably a Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Edging lower. Monsanto/Bayer a big deal. Import prices fell. Census data on poverty, medical care, and inequality. Techies want real news. Autonomous shopping carts. Ford to Mexico. Uber minus Uber drivers. SpaceX minus a launch pad. Shipping minus customers. Apple’s back. Wells Fargo under investigation.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2016

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Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session …

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Financial Review

Wound Tight

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSMarkets in tight trading range but tomorrow will be an interesting day. Oil slips again. Oracle reaches for the cloud with NetSuite. Alphabet (Google) crushes earnings. Amazon posts profits. Ford stalls out. Homeownership at lowest level in 50 years. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-28-2016

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Financial Review

GDP Meh

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSGDP sags, BOJ surprise, Amazon pops, Ford gets pricey, and Goldman is still playing the ponies. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-28-2016

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Financial Review

Hooked on Price Hikes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFOMC no change, June still on the table. It looks like the fix is in on oil. Remember Greece? Drug companies addicted to prices. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-27-2016

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Financial Review

Honey for Bears

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2016 DOW – 177 = 16,027 SPX – 26 = 1853 NAS – 79 = 4283 10 Y – .11 = 1.74% OIL – .80 = 30.09 GOLD + 15.50 = 1190.00   This was just an ugly session from the start. The Dow opened about 200 points down and then trickled lower; at one point down more than 300 points. The S&P 500 index broke down through the key level of support at 1860 that I warned you about in January and again last week, taking out the August 2015 lows and the October 2014 lows. The S&P 500 not only took out support from January, but now we look to minor support at 1815, and then, well there isn’t really any support. In other words, the charts look very dangerous here.   And if you prefer fundamentals over technicals; this is what FactSet had to say in its recent report: “For Q4 2015, the blended earnings decline is -3.8%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.” The difference this time versus 2009 is that valuations are much higher. FactSet data show expectations for first-quarter per-share earnings have collapsed to a decline of 5.5% as of today. Back in September, that forecast …

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Financial Review

Cat Herders in the Oil Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-28-2016   DOW + 125 = 16,069 SPX +10 = 1893 NAS + 38 = 4506 10 Y – .02 = 1.99% OIL + 1.43 = 33.73 GOLD – 9.70 = 1116.00   The story of the day was oil, and it made for another ridiculous day of trading, dragging stocks up and down in its wake. Oil rose as much as 7.8% after Russia’s energy minister said that OPEC and other producers may meet to discuss output. Then, OPEC delegates said no talks were planned and oil prices floated back down to earth. OPEC is comprised of countries that rely on oil to fund national budgets. So, low oil prices have resulted in national deficits and desperate times. Several countries would probably welcome production cuts that might lead to higher prices but then you have Iraq pumping like never before; and then add Iran to the mix.   Iran has put the finishing touches on a deal to buy over 100 Airbus passenger jets. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is in Europe, trying to revive business ties. Rouhani visited Italy with a 120-member delegation of business leaders and cabinet ministers, signing a raft of deals. The shopping trip then moved to France to buy planes. Peugeot is also scheduled to meet with the group. All those planes and cars cost money. Iran will be adding to production, not cutting.  …

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Financial Review

Exit Signs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-13-2016   DOW – 364 = 16,151 SPX – 48 = 1890 NAS – 159 = 4526 10 Y – .04 = 2.07% OIL + .10 = 30.54 GOLD + 7.00 = 1094.50   US markets started trading higher but the gains faded fast. This has been the pattern in 4 of the last 5 trading sessions; early gains collapsing into the close. The next real level of support in the Dow is around 16,000, more specifically 15,981, the lows from September 28. Then the more significant level of support is at 15,370, the low from August 24. That doesn’t mean we will rush down to those levels. I would anticipate markets trying to rally at some point, just because the carnage has been brutal to start the year. Remember that on December 29, the Dow high was 17,750. That means the Dow is down about 1650 and closing in on a 10% correction over the course of the past 2 weeks. You can’t really call it a crash, but it is enough to make plenty of people nervous.   Yesterday, we talked about all the research analysts from the investment banks saying “sell everything” or “sell on rallies”; this kind of recommendation might be a contrarian indicator, or it might be headline grabbing hogwash, or it might be a self-fulfilling prophesy. Moving down the trading chain, …

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Financial Review

Sideways

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-19-2015 DOW – 4 = 17,732 SPX – 2 = 2081 NAS – 1 = 5073 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.25% OIL – .24 = 40.51 GOLD + 11.30 = 1082.30 SILV + .04 = 14.32   The biggest rally in stocks in 4 weeks fizzled today. The S&P is up 2.9% so far this week. The S&P 500 has surged almost 12% from its August lows, including an 8.3% gain in October. Treasuries rose and the dollar fell. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 1.9%, heading toward the biggest weekly gain since the period ended Oct. 9. Equity gauges in South Korea, India and South Africa jumped more than 1%. Oil touched the lowest level in almost three months.   The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended Nov. 14. Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 37consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and are not too far from levels last seen in the early 1970s. Claims below this level are usually associated with a healthy jobs market.   Other data showed a slight pick-up in factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region in November after two straight months of declines. In a separate report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its general activity index rose to 1.9 this …

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Financial Review

Barn Cleaning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2015 DOW – 41 = 17,581 SPX – 5 = 2065 NAS – 4 = 5030 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.03% OIL – .78 = 43.20 GOLD + 4.10 = 1168.00 SILV + .03 = 15.97   Congressional leaders have reached a tentative budget deal with the White House in a breakthrough that would set government funding levels for the next two years and extend the nation’s debt limit through 2017. The bill would raise the spending caps set in place in 2011 that would result in deep cuts to both defense and non-defense spending, called sequestration.  This deal would provide $80 billion in sequester relief.   The bipartisan agreement would include long-term entitlement reforms to the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, the first major reform to Social Security since 1983.  The Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended, in part to tighten and standardize eligibility requirements that now vary by state. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. It also prevents a spike in Medicare B premiums for millions of seniors. The increases would have been caused by the rare absence of a cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits, because of unusually low inflation.   The deal still needs Congressional approval, but for outgoing House Speaker John Boehner this was a matter of wrapping up unfinished business before his departure, …

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Financial Review

Trending

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 18,110 SPX + 5 = 2114 NAS – 4 = 5055 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.97% OIL – .06 = 56.93 GOLD + 10.10 =  1212.80 SILV + .21 = 16.71   House prices picked up in February, rising 0.5%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index. After seasonal adjustments, home prices rose 0.9% in February, matching January’s gain. Compared with February 2014, prices for the 20-city index were up 5%, the fastest growth in half a year. Home prices in Phoenix gained 0.3% for the month and 2.9% for the 12 month period.   The Commerce Department reports home ownership slipped to a 25 year low of 63.8% in the first quarter. The home ownership rate peaked at 69.4% in 2004. Household formation increased by 1.5 million in the first quarter. More people, starting more households, but they aren’t buying homes. With many Americans still showing an aversion to homeownership, the gains in household formation largely are being driven by renters.   Consumer confidence declined in April to a four-month low as Americans’ views of the labor market and the outlook on the economy deteriorated. The Conference Board’s index dropped to 95.2 from a revised 101.4 reading in March. The report showed fewer respondents said jobs were plentiful in April and income expectations cooled, signaling consumers will remain guarded about spending. The …

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