Financial Review

Happy Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-20-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..FBI investigating Trump-Russia ties. No wiretapping. Gorsuch hearing. Tryancare vote Thursday, maybe. Brexit Article 50. G20 protectionism, yea sure. Gates-Trump. Greece misses again. Deutsche Bank finds greater fools. Vodaphone has an Idea. Albertsons Sprouts. Unilever dumps butter. Twitter full o’ bots. Uber exit. BAML’s big list of everything YTD. Italy is healthiest; Norway is happiest; US is fat and grumpy. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-20-2017

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Financial Review

The Vultures Eat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-29-2016   DOW – 123 = 16,516 SPX – 15 = 1932 NAS – 32 = 4557 10 Y – .02 = 1.74% OIL + 1.12 = 33.90 GOLD + 16.50 = 1239.30   If you missed the past month, you might think things were calm on Wall Street for the month of February. For the month, the Dow rose 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1.2 percent. This marks the first time since 2011 that major indexes posted three consecutive monthly declines.   Chinese shares closed at one-month lows. China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves for the fifth time since last February. The yuan hit a three week low. China expects to lay off 1.8 million coal and steel workers.    A weekend meeting of G20 finance chiefs ended without a plan to spur global growth. The G20 issued a statement which basically said the global economy is not as bad as the doomsayers think. G20 finance ministers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals; but there was no plan for coordinated stimulus. Participants also repeated previous pledges not to engage in competitive currency devaluations and promised to “consult closely” on exchange markets. Those pledges might not last long, and the Euro Union might …

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Financial Review

I Would Like to Thank the Academy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-26-2016 DOW – 57 = 16,639 SPX – 3 = 1948 NAS + 8 = 4590 10 Y + .07 = 1.76 OIL – .29 = 32.79 GOLD – 10.90 = 1222.80   For the week, the Dow Industrials added 1.5%, the S&P 500 gained 2%, the Nasdaq was up 1.9%. The S&P 500 has rallied about 6.5 percent since reaching a 22-month low on Feb. 11, it remains lower by more than 4.5 percent for the year. The dollar strengthened for a third day versus the yen, while yields on 10-year Treasury notes topped 1.75 percent. Oil capped the biggest weekly gain since August, with a 10% move. China’s central bank said it sees room for monetary easing. Chinese markets were up over 1% after a big 6% drop Thursday.  The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.1 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.5 percent. Gold posted a consecutive weekly drop for the first time this year.   Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s leading economies have gathered in Shanghai to discuss a response to the global economic landscape. Among the many issues facing them is the plunge in commodity prices, market volatility, exchange rates and the slowdown of China’s economy. G20 participants will try to agree on a coordinated stimulus program that could stop a global slowdown from turning into something worse. But …

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Financial Review

If You Build It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-25-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-25-2016 DOW + 212 = 16,697 SPX + 21 = 1951 NAS + 39 = 4582 10 Y – .05 = 1.70% OIL + .93 = 33.08 GOLD + 4.30 = 1233.70 The Shanghai Composite in China dropped 6.4% today, extending its fall this year to 22%, as surging money-market rates signaled tighter liquidity and the offshore yuan weakened for a fifth day, while the country’s vice finance minister warned of pressure on exports. The plunge comes as world leaders gather for a G20 meeting in Shanghai, where current market turmoil and a global economic slowdown are expected to be key topics of discussion. European shares bounced after two days of falls, and sterling steadied after having been pounded all week by ‘Brexit’ fears.  The S&P 500 Index closed at a seven-week high, right at a major level of resistance, and just barely breaking above the 50 day moving average.   Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for urgent and bold action to combat the slowing world economy ahead of the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs. The IMF report says: “The G20 must plan now for coordinated demand support using available fiscal space to boost public investment.” The calls for an organized stimulus program followed warnings that China’s slowdown, financial market turbulence and the collapse in commodity prices were major headwinds that could derail a global recovery. …

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Financial Review

No Sense in Wasting Our Time

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-23-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-23-2016 DOW – 188 = 16,431 SPX – 24 = 1921 NAS – 67 = 4503 10 Y – .02 = 1.75 OIL – 2.09 = 31.30 GOLD + 17.10 = 1226.40   The G20 is meeting this weekend in Shanghai. The US will call on G20 countries later to use fiscal policy in order to boost global demand.  American officials will also urge all members to refrain from manipulating exchange rates for competitive purposes, in line with existing G20 commitments.   The world’s oil giants were meeting today. At a conference in Houston, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi, considered the world’s most powerful energy policymaker, said production cuts will not happen. Last week, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela proposed a freeze that would cap production at January levels. But Naimi said: “Freeze is the beginning of a process, and that means if we can get all the major producers to agree not to add additional balance, then this high inventory we have now will probably decline in due time. It’s going to take time. It is not like cutting production. That is not going to happen because not many countries are going to deliver even if they say they will cut production, they will not deliver. So there is no sense in wasting our time seeking production cuts.” Global production is projected to be 95 million barrels a day in …

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Financial Review

Pick a Lane

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2015 DOW + 6 = 17,489 SPX – 2 = 2050 NAS + 1 = 4986 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.26% OIL – .95 = 40.79 GOLD – 12.30 = 1070.80 SILV – .06 = 14.29   Global equity markets moved higher today, following the rally yesterday on Wall Street and brushed off concerns related to Friday’s terror attacks in Paris. In their final communique from a summit in Turkey, the leaders of the world’s largest economies stuck to a goal of lifting their collective output by an extra 2% by 2018, even though growth remains uneven and weaker than expected globally. G20 leaders also endorsed plans to address Syria’s refugee crisis, taxation, climate change, cyber security and inequality.   France launched another set of airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria early Tuesday as the country steps up its response to last week’s deadly attacks. The bombings follow a second night of home searches in France and Belgium to catch those responsible and linked to the killings. President Francois Hollande is now looking to expand his powers under France’s state-of-emergency statute and has called on the U.S. and Russia to form a “big unified coalition” to destroy ISIS.   Meanwhile, Russian officials said they had found evidence that the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month was downed by a bomb, the first time those …

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Financial Review

Keep Your Eye On The Ball

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 107 = 17,172 SPX – 16 = 1994 NAS – 52 = 4527 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.57% OIL – .91 = 91.50 GOLD – 1.40 = 1215.80 SILV – .06 = 17.83 It’s not a huge week for reports, but we do get a couple worth keeping an eye out for. On Thursday, we’ll get the durable goods report for August; and on Friday, we’ll get the third and final revision to second-quarter Gross Domestic Product. This morning we saw the report on existing home sales. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales dropped 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.05 million units. The decrease was the first in four months, although the sales pace was still the second highest for the year. Investors had propped up the market by snapping up distressed properties and converting them into rental units, but last month they accounted for only 12 percent of transactions, which was the smallest share since November 2009; all cash sales made up 23 percent of transactions in August. First-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of sales, well below the 40% to 45% considered normal. The inventory of unsold homes on the market increased 4.5 percent from a year-ago to 2.31 million in August. At August’s sales pace, it would take 5.5 months to clear houses from the market, unchanged from July. A new …

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Uncategorized

Friday, September 06, 2013 – Fed Policy Creates Inequality

Fed Policy Creates Inequality by Sinclair Noe DOW – 14 = 14,922SPX + .09 = 1655NAS + 1 = 366010 YR YLD – .04 = 2.93%OIL+ 1.86 = 110.23GOLD + 21.10 = 1389.80SILV + .63 = 23.94 The war hasn’t started …, yet. This morning we got the big monthly jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 169,000 jobs last month falling short of the 175,000 to 180,000 Wall Street had expected. Not only did hiring miss expectations last month, but the job count for June and July was revised to show 74,000 fewer positions added than previously reported. While the unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 7.3 percent, its lowest level since December 2008, the decline reflected a drop in the share of working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for one. That participation measure reached its lowest point since August 1978, a further sign of underlying economic weakness. The rate for men touched a record low. U-6, a measure of underemployment that includes people who want a job but who have given up searching and those working part time because they cannot find full-time jobs fell three tenths of a percentage point to a 4-1/2-year low of 13.7 percent. The private sector accounted for the bulk of the job gains last month, but government payrolls increased 17,000 as local governments hired teachers for the new school year. Factory employment rebounded after falling in July. Construction payrolls were flat as both residential and …

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Uncategorized

Friday, July 26, 2013 – Notes from the Favela

Notes from the Favela by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 15,558SPX + 1 = 1691NAS + 7 = 3613 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.56%OIL – .82 = 104.67GOLD – .30 = 1334.80SILV – .26 = 20.09 Earlier in the week, the Dow and S&P hit record highs but the markets slipped; earlier today the Dow was down 150 points. For the week, the Dow rose 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 was flat (even as it hit a record) and the Nasdaq rose 0.7 percent. It’s Friday, and I have a bunch of notes and scraps that have been piling up, so we’ll clean the desk, in no particular order. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment climbed to 85.1 from 84.1 in June, topping expectations for 84. It was the highest level since July 2007 and was also an improvement from July’s initial reading of 83.9. Of course, if you paid a premium subscription, you could have had that information before the rest of the market. Yesterday, I mentioned former Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s remark that the only real financial innovation in the past 20 years was the ATM, which is actually about 30 years old now. And Volker wasn’t quite right; the banks haven’t done any real innovation but the hackers have. For nearly a decade, a band of cybercriminals rampaged through the servers of a global business who’s who: Among the victims were 7-Eleven, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JetBlue …

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Uncategorized

Friday, April 20, 2012 – Burning Down Spanish Debt, AMR and Unions

DOW + 65 = 13,029SPX + 1 = 1378NAS – 7 = 300010 YR YLD +.02 = 1.97%OIL + 1.05 = 103.32GOLD – .20 = 1643.40SILV – .10 = 31.80PLAT unch = 1586.00 Italian and Spanish bond yields rose after a draft statement released by G-20 finance chiefs who are meeting in Washington said that Europe’s debt crisis still poses a threat to global growth. Spanish bonds briefly pushed above 6%. That helped push the cost of credit-default swaps to insure Spanish government debt up to a record high 503 bp and increased the cost of insuring Italian debt up to 474 bp, a 3-month high. Credit default swaps pay the buyer face value if the borrower – in this instance Spain – fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. They’re priced in basis points. A basis point equals $1,000 on each $10 million in debt. Credit default swaps, or CDS, are generally considered insurance against default, but it’s not really insurance because anybody can write CDS against anybody else; there is no requirement for “insurable interest”. For example, if insurance worked like CDS, I could write a fire insurance policy on your house and if your house burned down, I would collect the payment. You might think that would give me an incentive to burn down your house. Yep, that might be what you would think. Now the bankers in New York and London might also have a little incentive to burn down Spanish …

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