Financial Review

Whiplash

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-11-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Fed minutes point to more rate hikes. CPI inflation heats up a little. Tweets fly, volatility rules. Gas prices rise with Middle East tensions. Facebook and your lack of privacy. Ryan retiring. Boehner goes green. Payday lenders v. CFPB. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-11-2018

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Financial Review

GDP

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-30-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Markets moving higher, valuations a concern. 4Q GDP revised slightly higher to 2.1%. Forecast calls for a repeat of 2016. Debt and deficit to spiral higher. Fedspeakers and the punchbowl. Oil looking at supply crunch. Drivers looking at higher prices. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-30-2017

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Financial Review

Manufacturing Breaks Bad

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSISM manufacturing contraction. Productivity drops, labor costs rise. Auto sales dip. Oil under $44. This summer was cheap for drivers. What Brexit effect? Hanjin Shipping BK. Samsung charred. SpaceX explodes, and takes Facebook satellite with it. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-01-2016

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Financial Review

Because it’s Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-14-2015 DOW + 69 = 17,477 SPX + 8 = 2091 NAS + 14 = 5048 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.20% OIL – .10 = 42.13 GOLD + .10 = 1115.80 SILV – .18 = 15.34   For the week, the Dow rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 added 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.1 percent.   Wholesale prices climbed at a slower pace in July, as energy prices dropped. The 0.2 percent increase in the producer-price index followed a 0.4 percent gain in June. Even with the recent increases, producer prices dropped 0.8 percent over the past 12 months. Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent for a second month, and those costs were up 0.6 percent from July 2014.   Industrial production climbed 0.6% in July; there were also upward revisions of 0.1% each in February, May and June. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point to 78%. The auto sector posted a 10.6% surge in production.   Looking to capitalize on rising demand, General Motors has increased its rate of production on larger trucks and SUVs, and added Saturday overtime shifts at a Texas plant. The move could see 48,000 to 60,000 additional vehicles for the 2016 model year. Make hay while the sun shines.   The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged slightly lower to a reading of …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 18,298.99 (record) SPX + 6 = 2129.20 (record) NAS + 30 =  5078 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.23% OIL – .14 = 59.55 GOLD + 2.30 = 1226.80 SILV + .19 = 17.78   Record high close for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high close we mention it. Whenever the Dow hits a record high close we have a celebration with milk and cookies. Our reasoning is that we never know if or when we will see another record high close. Sure, the Dow could hit another record high tomorrow, or it might falter and it could be 5 years or ten years until we see a record, or maybe never. So today we celebrate.   The rationale behind these record highs is suspect. Last week’s economic news was disappointing, and the bad news moved the markets higher, mainly on the idea that the Fed will be slower to raise rates. Retail sales were weak, industrial production was flat and capacity utilization decreased.  Consumers aren’t spending what’s left over after lower oil prices, instead, they are increasing personal savings. A new survey from Princeton Research shows 19% saved the difference from the gas pump, 4% invested, and only 14% took the savings from lower gas prices and went out and spent it …

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Financial Review

Halloween Treats

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-31-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 195 = 17,390 SPX + 23 = 2018 NAS + 64 = 4630 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.33% OIL – .44 = 80.68 GOLD – 25.90 = 1173.90 SILV – .28 = 16.28 Record highs, again. Back on September 19th, the Dow hit a record high close of 17,279. And then we watched the market tumbled for nearly a month. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and it has been a strong move to new highs; up 1,100 from when I called the reversal, and up 1,545 from the lows of October 15. Also, a new closing high for the S&P 500, however, we did not take out the intraday high of 2019 from September 19. Let’s break down the moves for the month of October. The Dow is up 248. The S&P added 46 points. The Nasdaq is up 137 points for October to a 14-1/2 year high. In October we saw the yield on the 10 year note drop 18 basis points from 2.51%. Gold took a hard fall on Friday, at one point trading at levels not seen since 2010. And of course, a big move in oil down 10.75 a barrel. If you are looking for a really dramatic move, the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks has bounced from a low of 1046 on October 13, to …

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Financial Review

The Brute Economic Power of Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE_SEG_1-09-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 61 = 16,987 SPX – 11 = 1985 NAS – 24 = 4567 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.61% OIL – .58 = 92.25 GOLD – 11.90 = 1229.30 SILV – .06 = 18.71 For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq was down 0.3%. Let’s start with the economic data: Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July vs a 0.8% rise in business sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at a healthy and lean 1.29. In a separate report, retail sales and consumer sentiment pointed at an improving economy. The preliminary September reading on the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index rose to the highest level since July 2013 and topped consensus expectations. Sales at US retailers rose in August by the largest amount since April, sales were up 0.6%; raising confidence in the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Retail sales would have been higher, but the price of gas dropped; after excluding gasoline, spending rose 0.7% in August. Of course, one of the reasons Americans spent more money going out and eating and shopping is because the price of gasoline has been low. Spending at gas stations declined an estimated 0.8% in August. That followed a flat July and another 0.8% drop in June. A separate report from the Labor Department on Friday …

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Financial Review

The Good, the Bad, and the Depressing

DOW + 129 = 16,956 SPX + 13 = 1973 NAS + 50 = 4458 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.56% OIL – .13 = 105.24 GOLD – .80 = 1327.10 SILV + .02 = 21.08   Record high closes for the Dow and the S&P.   The record setting bull market run refuses to stumble. The S&P 500 has not seen a correction, a drop of 10%, for 1,002 days, and counting. This marks the fifth longest stretch without a correction since 1928. The average time between corrections is about 18 months; we’ve now gone 33 months without a 10% pullback.   The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index registered 55.3% in June, down slightly from May’s reading of 55.4%. Any number above 50% signals expansion. Separately, the research firm Markit said its final reading of US manufacturing conditions in June totaled 57.3, compared with a preliminary reading of 57.5; still the highest reading since May 2010. So the manufacturing sector has expanded for 13 consecutive months, but it wasn’t a month over month increase, and we have to remember that manufacturing was expanding in the first quarter as the broader economy was contracting by 2.9%. Today’s reports were decent news for manufacturing, but hardly great.   The Commerce Department reports construction spending increased 0.1% in May, following a 0.8% increase in April. Construction activity totaled $958 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in May, up 6.6% from a year ago. Single-family home construction was …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, July 01, 2014 – The Good, the Bad, and the Depressing

The Good, the Bad, and the Depressing by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 129 = 16,956 SPX + 13 = 1973 NAS + 50 = 4458 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.56% OIL – .13 = 105.24 GOLD – .80 = 1327.10 SILV + .02 = 21.08   Record high closes for the Dow and the S&P.   The record setting bull market run refuses to stumble. The S&P 500 has not seen a correction, a drop of 10%, for 1,002 days, and counting. This marks the fifth longest stretch without a correction since 1928. The average time between corrections is about 18 months; we’ve now gone 33 months without a 10% pullback.   The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index registered 55.3% in June, down slightly from May’s reading of 55.4%. Any number above 50% signals expansion. Separately, the research firm Markit said its final reading of US manufacturing conditions in June totaled 57.3, compared with a preliminary reading of 57.5; still the highest reading since May 2010. So the manufacturing sector has expanded for 13 consecutive months, but it wasn’t a month over month increase, and we have to remember that manufacturing was expanding in the first quarter as the broader economy was contracting by 2.9%. Today’s reports were decent news for manufacturing, but hardly great.   The Commerce Department reports construction spending increased 0.1% in May, following a 0.8% increase in April. Construction activity totaled $958 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in …

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Uncategorized

Friday, August 16, 2013 – Who Knows?

Who Knows? by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 15,081SPX – 5 = 1655NAS – 3 = 360210 YR YLD + .07 = 2.83%OIL + .62 = 107.95GOLD + 11.10 = 1378.20SILV + .25 = 23.36 The Dow fell 2.2 percent for the week, its biggest decline since June 2012, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq dropped 1.6%; their biggest weekly losses since June, 2013. It was a second week of losses for the major indexes. The yield on the 10 year note climbed to the highest level in 2 years. Gold settled at its highest price in almost two months. The productivity of US workers rose more than projected in the second quarter. The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 0.9% annualized rate, after a 1.7% decline in the prior three months. Even with the second-quarter pickup, productivity was unchanged in the 12 months ended in June, below the average 2.4% annual gain in the 2000-2011 period. Businesses are reaching the limit of how much efficiency they can squeeze from their existing staff. So, we’re at a point where any increase in demand could prompt more hiring, but we’re not seeing an increase in demand. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment slipped to 80.0 from 85.1 in July. We’re all consumers aren’t we; that’s how we are measured; that is our value to corporate America. Earlier this week I repeated the old …

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