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Friday, August 16, 2013 – Who Knows?

Who Knows? by Sinclair Noe DOW – 30 = 15,081SPX – 5 = 1655NAS – 3 = 360210 YR YLD + .07 = 2.83%OIL + .62 = 107.95GOLD + 11.10 = 1378.20SILV + .25 = 23.36 The Dow fell 2.2 percent for the week, its biggest decline since June 2012, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq dropped 1.6%; their biggest weekly losses since June, 2013. It was a second week of losses for the major indexes. The yield on the 10 year note climbed to the highest level in 2 years. Gold settled at its highest price in almost two months. The productivity of US workers rose more than projected in the second quarter. The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 0.9% annualized rate, after a 1.7% decline in the prior three months. Even with the second-quarter pickup, productivity was unchanged in the 12 months ended in June, below the average 2.4% annual gain in the 2000-2011 period. Businesses are reaching the limit of how much efficiency they can squeeze from their existing staff. So, we’re at a point where any increase in demand could prompt more hiring, but we’re not seeing an increase in demand. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment slipped to 80.0 from 85.1 in July. We’re all consumers aren’t we; that’s how we are measured; that is our value to corporate America. Earlier this week I repeated the old …

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Monday, February 04, 2013 – Brouhaha As Excuse

Brouhaha As Excuse by Sinclair Noe DOW – 129 = 13,880SPX – 17 = 1495NAS – 47 = 313110 YR YLD – .04 = 1.97%OIL – 1.61 = 96.16GOLD + 6.80 = 1675.40SILV – .08 = 31.86 With all the brouhaha over the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling and the inauguration and the Super Blackout, it would be easy to forget the problems in Euro-land, but today, those problems have jumped back onto center stage, again. In Italy and Spain the prospects of stable government are slipping. First in Italy, an election is scheduled for later in the month. The technocrat-slash-PM Mario Monti will exit, stage right, and the race is on. The second and third place contenders are a comedian named Beppe Grillo and another comedian, Silvio “Bunga-Bunga” Berlusconi; it appears unlikely either will win, but they are looking like they can splinter the vote for front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani. The running theme of the campaigns is anti-austerity and anti-German authoritarianism. In Spain, the economy is contracting, again. Fourth quarter GDP shrank by 0.7%; the steepest decline in more than 3 years. Also, last week a new report showed unemployment at more than 26% in the fourth quarter. They are still calling it a recession but it is clearly a depression, and it is exacerbated by spending cuts and tax increases. Toss in a slush fund scandal involving the Prime Minister Rajoy, alleging kickbacks from construction firms; add in the Catalonian secessionist movement, and massive street protests. Italian …

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Monday, Ocotber 22, 2012 – What’s the Over-Under on a Thank You Note?

What’s the Over-Under on a Thank You Note? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 2 = 13,345SPX + 0.63 = 1433NAS + 11 = 301610 YR YLD + .03 = 1.80OIL – 1.79 = 88.26GOLD + 9.00 = 1730.50SILV +.38 = 32.55PLAT – 9.00 = 1614.00 I never knew that you could do these things but apparently you can. How many times do you think you will hear the word China or Chinese in tonight’s debate. The over/under on China is 7. You can actually bet on how many times you’ll hear a particular word or phrase. The over /under on Benghazi is 25. A year ago, I didn’t even know where Benghazi is; now it will probably be all over the debate. The over/under on terror/terrorists/terrorism or some other form of the word; the over under is 37 and this includes both candidates and the moderator. The over/under on Federal Reserve is one. Who knew? I’m not advising you actually place a wager on this. In fact, I think it would be a bad idea; but this is what it’s boiled down to: bread and circuses, a chicken in every pot and cheap entertainment for all. The winner tonight could very well determine which man will be what was once called without irony The Leader of the Free World. There is a good chance that the winner tonight will be the one who convinces us that foreign policy actually matters to your wallet. If it happens overseas it impacts us …

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