Financial Review

Fuld Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 115 = 18,010 SPX – 13 = 2107 NAS – 27 = 5070 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.09% OIL + 2.62 = 60.30 GOLD + 2.20 = 1191.00 SILV + .04 = 16.80   The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 115 points lower after falling more than 150 points during the session. The blue chip index posted a 0.9 percent gain for May. The S&P 500 ended up 1.1 percent for the month, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 2.6 percent monthly gain.   Year to date the Dow Industrials are up about 1 percent, the S&P 500 is up about 2 percent, and the Nasdaq is up about 7%. This has been an extremely tight trading range to start the year. Another way to look at it is consolidation. And at some point the markets will break out of this tight range. The question is whether it will be a breakout or a breakdown. And if you’re looking for a divergent signal, the Dow Transports traded down for the day, for a 3.4 percent loss in May. The index is down 9 percent for the year.   Today’s big economic report was that first quarter Gross Domestic Product in the U.S. shrank at a 0.7 percent annualized rate, revised lower from a previously reported 0.2 percent gain. The revisions showed the trade gap widened …

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Financial Review

The Dog Ate the Greek Proposal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 18,116 SPX – 0.64 = 2109 NAS + 5 = 4960 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.06% OIL – 1.36 = 49.45 GOLD – 2.10 = 1202.80 SILV + .05 = 16.42   The S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent last week to finish at record highs, the third record high of the year. The Dow rose to its first record of the year and the Nasdaq Composite closed at its highest level since March 2000, closing in on 5000. The Russell 2000 Index advanced 0.7 percent, also ending at a record Friday. Much of the stock market action has followed news of a compromise with Greece. At last week’s meeting, Greece signed up to all the conditions of its current bailout package and to continued international oversight, provided the Greeks come up with a list of reforms. Easier said than done; any reforms have to be acceptable to the Troika (the IMF, the ECB, and the EU, and subject to approval by all EU members) and at the same time it will have to be acceptable to Greeks who voted against the austerity plans of the Troika. The plan was supposed to be presented today, but that didn’t happen. Now the Greeks say they will present the reforms tomorrow. Given that Monday night was treated as a hard deadline for getting the Greek proposals …

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Financial Review

One Foot on the Gas, One Foot on the Brake

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 251 = 17,164 SPX – 26 = 1994 NAS – 48 = 4635 10 YR YLD – .08 = 1.67% OIL + 3.25 = 47.78 GOLD + 25.00 = 1284.10 SILV + .31 = 17.33 GDP growth slows. The Commerce Department reports fourth quarter gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, down from a very strong 5% growth rate in the third quarter. The results were below consensus estimates of 3% growth. For all of 2014, the economy grew 2.4% compared to 2.2% in 2013. Consumer spending advanced at a 4.3% pace in the fourth quarter – the fastest since the first quarter of 2006 and an acceleration from the third quarter’s 3.2% pace. The final read on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was 98.1, down a tick from the 98.2 in the preliminary estimate. That’s still above the 93.6 mark in December and the best reading in 11 years. Just as consumers were stepping on the gas, businesses were tapping the brakes. Business spending on equipment fell at a 1.9% rate. It was the largest contraction since the second quarter of 2009. The fourth-quarter weakness could reflect cuts or delays to investment projects in the oil industry. But it could also be payback after two back-to-back quarters of robust gains. A wider trade deficit, as slower global growth curbed exports and solid domestic demand sucked …

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Financial Review

Flowers for Angela

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17, 678 SPX + 5 = 2057 NAS + 13 = 4771 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.83% OIL – .49 = 45.10 GOLD – 12.80 = 1282.30 SILV – .39 = 18.01 It’s snowing in New York; this is a really, really big blizzard and it could dump up to 3 feet of snow across the northeast, with winds up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has already caused more than 1,800 flight cancellations, roads are closed in New York City except for emergency vehicles, rail traffic is also shut down, and schools are closed, and expect power outages across the Northeast. The Super Bowl will be this weekend in Glendale, and temperatures are expected to be mid-70’s. The folks at the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce are doing their happy dance. This week’s economic calendar is packed, plus we are in earnings reporting season and some big names will post results this week. Microsoft reported after the close today, and we’ll get to that in just a moment. Apple reports tomorrow. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, reports results on Thursday; it could be an early indicator of the damage being done to company earnings by lower oil prices. Ford Motor, the nation’s second-largest automaker, reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. On Wednesday, the Fed will end its two-day policy meeting with a statement …

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Financial Review

Strange Bedfellows

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 268 = 17,533 SPX – 33 = 2026 NAS – 82 = 4684 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.17% OIL – 2.64 = 61.18 GOLD – 6.30 = 1227.10 SILV – -.05 = 17.16 Well, that was ugly. This is why we enjoy milk and cookies while we can. We’ve seen a lot of record highs in the major indices this year, but they remain rare birds. When we fall from record highs the drop can be fast, as it was today. The worst day since the start of October; wiping out gains from the past month. The month of December has brought positive returns to the Dow every single year for the last five consecutive years. As you might imagine, there’s a lot of pressure to make it six. And it might still happen, despite the past couple of days. Still it’s a good reminder to stay awake through the holidays, keep your stop loss in place, however you employ your stop loss; and if you don’t have a stop loss it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. Beyond that, it was just an ugly day, with decliners beating advancing issues 4 to 1. All 10 S&P industry sectors were down, with the energy sector down 3.3% as oil prices continue their slide. Brent crude dropped to $63.56, a 5 year low; …

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Financial Review

Faster and Faster but No Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,814 SPX – 2 = 2067 NAS+ 3 = 4758 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 1.95 = 74.22 GOLD + 2.90 = 1202.20 SILV + .20 = 16.77 The major stock indices couldn’t close at records, but Apple reached a milestone today. Apple’s market capitalization hit a record $700 billion; that’s double from 3 years ago when Tim Cook became CEO. Apple is the first S&P 500 company to ever reach a $700 billion market cap. Yet, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it still has way to go to be the most valuable company of all time. Microsoft’s market cap peak of $613 billion in 1999 translates to nearly $874 billion in 2014 dollars. When Microsoft was at the top, it was trading at 72 times earnings. Apple’s price-to-earnings ratio is currently 18, in line with the overall S&P. It’s a little tough to imagine what Apple will do in the future to match the growth they’ve experienced in the past. The economy is better than you thought. The Commerce Department revised its estimate of third quarter gross domestic product from 3.5% up to 3.9%. There will be another revision before settling on a final number. Second quarter GDP came in at a 4.6% growth rate; combined second and third quarter GDP was the strongest back to back growth since 2003. Let’s …

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Financial Review

Mangled Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 17,366 SPX – 0.24 = 2017 NAS + 8 = 4638 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.35% OIL – 2.03 = 78.39 GOLD – 7.60 = 1166.30 SILV – .03 = 16.25 No milk and cookies today, however the Dow and S&P hit intraday record highs. Construction spending fell 0.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950 billion. Spending fell 0.6% for nonresidential projects and dropped 1.3% for public construction projects, but rose 0.4% for residential projects. The National Association of Realtors reports first-time buyers’ share of home sales has hit a 27 year low of just 33%; normally it would be closer to 40%. The final reading of Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 55.9 in October, down from the flash reading of 56.2 and well below September’s 57.9. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to 59% from 56.6% in the prior month; new orders, production, and the employment gauge all moved higher. Last week the Federal Reserve officially ended the Quantitative Easing plan, which has been around in various forms for about 5 years. The dollar reached multi-year highs against both the yen and euro; last week the Bank of Japan announced a surprise stimulus plan, called QQE2; on that news the stock markets hit a new high on Friday and global markets rallied. This week the European …

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Financial Review

Bond King Exits

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 167 = 17,113 SPX + 16 = 1982 NAS + 45 = 4512 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.53% OIL + .53 = 91.83 GOLD – 2.50 = 1220.40 SILV + .16 = 17.76 This week proved quite a roller coaster ride for the major indices. The Dow Industrial Average moved by at least 100 points in each of the five sessions, and finished the week down 1%. The S&P 500 climbed above its 50-day moving average today after dropping below the level yesterday for the first time since August. The S&P 500 was 1.4% lower on the week, and the Nasdaq lost 1.5% for the week. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies extended its September loss to 5.5 percent yesterday after dropping 6.1 percent in July. The Gross Domestic Product increased at a rate of 4.6 percent in the second quarter, according to third and final revision on GDP; up from the earlier estimate of 4.2% growth, and up from 2.5% growth in the same period a year ago. It represents the fastest rate of growth since the last three months of 2011. Spending on personal consumption increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, up from 1.2 percent in the first. Durable goods, such as cars, homes and electronics jumped 14.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the last quarter. The latest revision of …

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Financial Review

Let Slip the Cats of War

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08282014 Financial Review for Thursday LISTEN HERE DOW – 42 = 17,079 SPX – 3 = 1996 NAS – 11 = 4557 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.33% OIL + .57 = 94.45 GOLD + 6.50 = 1290.20 SILV + .05 = 19.58 Since falling to a near three-month low on Aug. 7, the S&P 500 index had risen for 11 of the prior 14 sessions, pushing it above 2,000 for the previous two days. However, the new highs came on some of the lightest trading volume of the year. Markets don’t go up in a straight line. However, the big round numbers are usually bullish. Two weeks after the passing of such a big, round number, the S&P 500 averages a 1% gain and is positive 79% of the time. Three months later, the index averages a 3.6% gain and is positive 89% of the time. When the S&P 500 surpassed 1900 back in May, it rallied for another five straight days and nine of the next 10. This time, the sight of the big, round 2,000 mark got traders so excite, they just screwed it up right away. The Commerce Department has released its first revision of the second quarter GDP. Gross domestic product grew 4.2%, up from the initial reading of 4%. First quarter GDP was negative; the economy contracted by 2.1%. So, part of the second quarter growth reflects …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 – Use Your Library Card at a Copy Shop for a Horseback Ride to the Moon

Use Your Library Card at a Copy Shop for a Horseback Ride to the Moon by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 49 = 16,867 SPX + 9 = 1959 NAS + 29 = 4379 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.56% OIL + .74 = 106.77 GOLD – .60 = 1319.40 SILV + .09 = 21.12 One of the jobs of the Commerce Department is to calculate the gross domestic product of the country; clearly it is a difficult task to figure out the value of all the goods and services produced, and so they tend to revise the numbers as they gather information. In April the Commerce Department figured the economy grew, just barely, 0.1% in the first quarter; last month they revised their GDP numbers to negative1.0%; today they revised GDP even lower. The economy shrank by 2.9%.   To understand the big move, you first have to realize that the GDP number is supposed to measure everything; construction and demolition, marriages and divorces, broccoli sales and cigarette sales, yoga classes and cancer treatments. One of the big reasons for the negative number is that the cost of healthcare dropped significantly.   The US spent $6.4 billion less on health care in the first quarter than in the last quarter of 2013. Government statisticians initially forecast a 9.9% increase in health-care spending, and what we got was a 1.4% decline. Considering all the millions of previously uninsured people who are gaining access to health insurance under the Affordable …

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