Financial Review

Waiting on Markups

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-13-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Tax plan mark ups followed by possible vote this week. Philly Fed forecast 2.2% GDP growth for 2017. October deficit grows. NY Fed inflation expectations up. CAPE too high. GE’s train wreck. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-13-2017

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Financial Review

No Wagering

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-16-2015 DOW + 74 = 17,215 SPX + 9 = 2033 NAS + 16 = 4886 10 YR YLD un =  2.02% OIL + .88 = 47.26 GOLD – 5.70 = 1178.70 SILV – .09 = 16.13   World markets extended a rally that has added $4.1 trillion to global equities this month, following a slew of weak economic reports that have dashed expectations for a Fed rate hike in 2015. European stocks are up, and Asian stock markets added to the gains which saw equities close at two-month highs; the Shanghai Composite gained 6.5% for the week. After a rebound yesterday, Wall Street recorded its third straight winning week. The Dow and S&P were up just under 1% on the week; the Nasdaq was up 1.7%. The rally over the past three weeks has been very narrow, as two thirds of the stocks on the S&P 500 are still below the 200-day moving average. Historically, October may be one of the worst months for stocks, but not in recent years and not so far this month.   Industrial production fell 0.2% in September, in line with expectations, and capacity utilization declined. The only major market group to post a gain in September was consumer goods. Capacity utilization fell to 77.5% from an upwardly revised 77.8% in August, a bit above the 77.4% expected.   Consumer sentiment rose in …

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Financial Review

Speech of the Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-24-2015   DOW – 75 = 16,201 SPX – 6 = 1932 NAS – 18 = 4734 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.12% OIL + .43 = 44.91 GOLD + 23.80 = 1155.10 SILV + .36 = 15.25   Pope Francis addressed a joint meeting of Congress this morning. Francis urged the United States not to turn its back on undocumented immigrants, to reject the victimization of religious and ethnic minorities, to overcome income inequality and to save the planet from climate change, citing Scripture and the nation’s founding ideals. He also asked lawmakers to wage a constant battle against poverty and to ensure the wealth of the world is equitably shared and used to create jobs. It was really a very remarkable and beautifully crafted speech. I’m posting a link to the full text of the speech on by blog, and I would hope that you have a chance to hear or read the entire speech because it covers some of the most important issues of our time. You may be in total agreement with Francis or you might disagree with some parts, but make no mistake – this was a strong and moving address from one of the most influential people in the world.  After the speech, Francis went from some of the most powerful people to some of the least powerful as he had …

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Financial Review

Seven Years

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-15-2015 DOW + 228 = 16,599 SPX + 25 = 1978 NAS + 54 = 4860 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.28% OIL + .38 = 44.97 GOLD – 3.30 = 1106.10 SILV – .01 = 14.51   Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.4 percent in August after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond closely to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, provided the latest sign of sturdy economic momentum and suggested the recent stock market sell-off had little immediate impact on U.S. household spending.   A separate report from the Federal Reserve, however, showed manufacturing output fell a sharper-than-expected 0.5 percent as auto production slid, after a rise of 0.9 percent in July. Excluding autos, factory output was unchanged. The manufacturing sector has been struggling, faced with the headwinds of a strong dollar, slack economies overseas and lower oil prices.   While most economists think the Fed may wait to raise interest rates, and futures contracts show only a 30 percent probability that the Fed will boost rates on Thursday, the Treasury market is bracing for a hike. Treasuries tumbled, lifting the two-year note yield to the highest since April 2011. Treasury two-year note yields rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 0.81 percent. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose nine basis …

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Financial Review

Beverly, Hills That Is

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-01-2015 DOW – 469 = 16,058 SPX – 58 = 1913 NAS – 140 = 4636 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – 4.99 = 44.21 GOLD + 5.40 = 1140.80 SILV – .01 = 14.72   Another rough day for stocks across the world after twin surveys showed China’s manufacturing sector in the grip of its worst slump in several years. Asian stocks slumped on the first trading day of September, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index chalking up a near 4 percent loss into correction territory. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as much as 3.2 percent. The major US averages lost more than 6 percent each in August. The New York Stock Exchange invoked Rule 48 for the fourth time in two weeks.   If you want, you could blame it on the Fed, as good a culprit as any; they want to raise rates despite data. Or you could look to a global slowdown, as emerging markets struggle with lower and lower commodity prices. The High Frequency Traders certainly can be considered culpable, not for starting the fire but for splashing kerosene on the flames. But really, this is just what markets do. It’s not one thing that causes a market to tumble, it is the added weight of many things. And a market looking to sell is going to sell. The major averages ended in correction territory, down nearly …

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Financial Review

Risk Off

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 127 = 17,440 SPX – 12 = 2067 NAS – 48 = 5039 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.23% OIL – .75 = 47.39 GOLD – 5.00 = 1095.50 SILV – .20 = 14.64   Chinese stocks fell sharply today. The Shanghai Composite fell 8.5% to record its largest one-day drop since June 2007, and the Shenzhen A-shares index lost 7% of its value. Weak manufacturing data revealed that profit at the country’s industrial firms dropped 0.3% in June from a year earlier, but the markets appear to be responding to government attempts to stabilize the country’s volatile stock markets; it seems like the Chinese government’s heavy-handed intervention measures are spooking investors. The fear is that the government will withdraw stimulus measures, and once the support disappears, the market won’t be able to stand on its own. In a way, the investors might be front-running the government; getting out before stimulus dries up.   Commodity prices resumed their downward spiral with the CRB commodities index hitting its lowest levels in six years and oil prices hitting a four-month low. Nine of the 10 major S&P 500 sectors were lower with the energy index leading the decliners. Stocks came off session lows in the close. The S&P 500 dipped below its 200-day moving average of 2,064 and closed a few points above it. The energy sector was the worst …

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Financial Review

King v Burwell Plan B

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,764 SPX + 0.87 = 2080 NAS – 7 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.42% OIL + 1.81 = 59.95   Each month the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payrolls, usually that report comes out on the first Friday of the month; a few days later they release the JOLT survey, Job Openings and Labor Turnover from the prior month. Job openings at US workplaces rose to 5.3 million in April from 5.1 million in March. That’s the most job openings in 14 years, and those job openings were spread among industries, including health care, retailers and providers of professional services. Now, keep in mind that this is the Job Openings from April, and we just saw the May Jobs report, which showed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 5.4% in April to 5.5% in May; and the reason the unemployment rate was higher is because more people entered the labor pool. Most of the nearly 400,000 new job seekers were under the age of 25.   While the number of job openings soared, employers are still taking their time filling them. Total hiring in April fell to 5 million from 5.1 million. The disparity between more openings and flat hiring suggests employers are being picky about new hires. Many companies say they are having difficulty finding qualified workers. They may …

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Financial Review

Jump Into Earnings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 17,949 SPX – 3 = 2097 NAS + 19 = 5014 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.92% OIL – 1.12 = 56.26 GOLD SILV This is one of the busiest weeks for earnings reports, so let’s jump in with both feet.   IBM delivered its 12th straight quarter of declining revenue, but they beat earnings expectations because they proved that even if they aren’t the masters of technology, they are masters of financial engineering; one way to boost earnings per share – reduce the shares outstanding with stock buybacks. At some point the strategy has a flaw, but that is for another day.   We’ve known that a stronger dollar would hurt US companies doing business overseas, but we rarely think about reversing that equation. The weaker euro boosted revenue at German business software maker SAP in the first three months of the year and drove operating profit up 15 percent. First-quarter revenue rose 22 percent to 4.5 billion euros, at the top of market forecasts. At constant exchange rates sales rose 10 percent.  First-quarter operating profit, excluding special items, rose to 1.06 billion euros ($1.13 billion), matching estimates. Excluding the effect of currencies, SAP’s operating profit dropped 2 percent.   Chip designer ARM Holdings supplies Apple’s iPhone. Arm said first quarter profits rose 24%, beating forecasts. Chief executive Simon Segars said: “As the world becomes more …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 279 = 17,826 SPX – 23 = 2081 NAS – 75 = 4931 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.85% OIL – .52 = 56.19 Even though oil prices were down slightly today, oil posted a 12% gain for the past week.   The economy continues to expand and consumers are feeling better. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.9 in April, up from 93 in March. Separately, The Conference Board said leading indicators rose 0.2% in March; the leading economic index has been slowing over recent months but it still points to moderate expansion in economic activity.   Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March. Gasoline prices rose 3.9%, which was the biggest jump since February 2013; still, gas prices are about 33% below year-ago levels.  The core-CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, also rose 0.2% due to higher cost of housing and used cars. The cost of clothes, housing, cars, and medical care increased, while food and airfare decreased. Core prices have risen 1.8% in the past year. While the “all-items index” (which includes things like food and energy) declined 0.1% over the last 12 months. Higher inflation would indicate a stronger dollar because it could reinforce the view that the Fed might hike interest rates sooner rather than later.   The Labor Department reports real average hourly earnings for all employees …

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Financial Review

Too Much Pie

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-01-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Reivew by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,776 SPX – 14 = 2053 NAS -64 = 4727 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.22% OIL + 3.22 = 69.37 GOLD + 44.30 = 1213.80 SILV + .88 = 16.56 Last week I said that you can never eat too much pie. I would like to amend that statement. That was a long weekend. While we were gone, the Dow hit another record hit on Friday, the 31st of the year. Dow stocks are still up about 7% for 2014; with all these record high closes, you might think it would be more, and you might think you could just throw a dart at any of the Dow 30 stocks and hit a winner. Unfortunately, not all Dow stocks were able to revel in the year’s rallies. In fact, nearly one-third of the market’s companies had negative returns this year. Big names that are down, including: Boeing – down about 7% despite fairly strong sales of airplanes, IBM – down 13% as they try to figure out what their business is, General Electric – is off about 6%, United Technologies – down about 3%, and Chevron – down about 6% for the year as oil prices have been sliding. The oil companies are about the only ones not happy with lower oil prices. On Thursday, as we were enjoying turkey and way too …

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