Financial Review

Shoppers Reign

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-26-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Holiday shopping is strong. GM closing plants, firing workers. Microsoft passes Apple. Climate report released Friday tries to buy the bad news. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-26-2018

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Financial Review

Split

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high close. Dollar gains. Greece on the edge of… China’s reserve slip. US trade deficit grows. US consumer credit inches up. CoreLogic home price index jumps. JOLT survey – openings flat, quits down. Betsy Devos confirmed. Army goes ahead with Dakota Access Pipeline. A gift for big oil. 9th Circuit hears arguments for travel ban. Oil prices down. GM workers finally catch a break. Apple number one in phone sales. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-07-2017

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Financial Review

Waiting on the Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFed decision due Wednesday. BOJ may steal their thunder. Global debt grows. Passporting rights at risk in a hard Brexit. An oil deal in the works? Home builder confidence grows. Sarepta has a drug for Duchenne MD. Salesforce introduces A.I. Hanjin docks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-19-2016

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Financial Review

Inside the Stagecoach

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Down again. Market turbulence begets volatility. Oil falls; IEA says no equilibrium. Bolt will beat Tesla to market. Soar growth. Solar showdown in Nevada. Freeport-McMoRan exits Gulf of Mexico. Fewer in poverty. Small biz worried about election. Hanjin docks in LA. Wells Fargo – bandits inside the stagecoach. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-13-2016

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Financial Review

ECB Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSECB holds on to ultra-loose policy, earnings season, strange moves in commodities, VW will pay for un-clean diesel, nobody invests anymore. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-21-2016

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Financial Review

Most Powerful Might Not Be Enough

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-03-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-03-2016 DOW + 183 = 16,336 SPX + 9 = 1912 NAS – 12 = 4504 10 Y + .02 = 1.88% OIL + 2.41 = 32.29 GOLD + 13.20 = 1143.20     Activity in the services sector slowed to a near two-year low in January. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of non-manufacturing activity fell to 53.5 last month, the lowest level since February 2014, from 55.8 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the service sector. Service industries reported growth in new orders continued to slow, with export orders contracting last month.   Private-sector employment gains increased in January but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Employers added 205,000 jobs in January, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP tweaked December’s gain to 267,000 from a prior estimate of 257,000. The ADP report is used as an early predictor of the government’s monthly jobs report, due out Friday morning.   The Fed’s adding a new twist to its severely adverse scenario in this year’s stress test – asking lenders how they would handle a prolonged period of rates below zero. Ninety-day bill rates slipped below 0% a number of times over the past few years, but never stayed there for very long. Negative rates, of course, are breaking out all over Europe, and the Bank of Japan last week …

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Financial Review

By Land and Sea

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2016 DOW + 52 = 16,398 SPX + 1 = 1923 NAS – 5 = 4637 10 Y + .03 = 2.16% OIL – 2.04 = 31.12 GOLD – 10.40 = 1095.20     Chinese stocks saw another big drop. China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.3% on Monday, bringing its 2016 loss to 14.8%. The sell-off did not trigger circuit breakers because the Chinese exchanges gave up on that idea after last week’s big declines. The decline came even after the yuan gained following a second intervention from the central bank.   Oil prices are sharply lower to start off the week as concerns over demand from China impact trading again, along with some fresh worries. Morgan Stanley is the latest major investment firm to forecast oil prices could fall into the $20s with the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen against major currencies. WTI crude futures dropped under $32 a barrel; that is a 12 year low. And remember this is at a time of increased tension in the Middle East; forget the fear premium, at least unless shipments are actually disrupted. Meanwhile, oil is being pumped out of the ground as if price doesn’t matter. Maybe we need to re-think the idea that oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia aren’t so much pumping oil now to defend market share but to get oil out of the ground while it has any value at …

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Financial Review

Worst Ever

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-07-2016 DOW – 392 = 16,514 SPX – 47 = 1943 NAS – 146 = 4689 10 Y – .02 = 2.15 OIL – .74 = 33.23 GOLD + 15.40 = 1110.20     The Chinese stock market was open for about 15 minutes; stocks dropped 5%, triggering circuit breakers, or rules that suspended trading. When trading resumed, it was all downhill and that triggered another level of circuit breakers, shutting down trading for the day; 29 minutes in total, the shortest session in Chinese market history. Circuit breakers are a new idea for Chinese markets; they have only been used since Monday, the start of the New Year. Trading was halted on Monday for 30 minutes. We have circuit breakers in place on Wall Street, and the idea is to allow a cooling off period when stocks are in freefall. In the US, trading is halted temporarily after declines of 7% and 13% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and only suspended for the rest of the day if losses reach 20%. In China, it only seems to make investors more nervous and they scramble to sell before getting locked out. After the trading halt, Chinese regulators decided to scrap the circuit breaker rule for the foreseeable future.   The Shanghai Composite Index finished down 7% at 3,125, bringing its losses over just four trading days to …

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Financial Review

The Day of Futures Past

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-21-2015   DOW – 48 = 17,168 SPX – 11 = 2018 NAS – 40 = 4840 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.03% OIL – 1.08 = 45.21 GOLD – 9.10 = 1167.70 SILV – .22 = 15.78   Oil futures settled at their lowest level in nearly three weeks. OPEC is holding a special meeting in Vienna with cartel members and non-members Russia and Mexico to discuss ways to prop up oil prices. Don’t hold your breath. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much bigger than expected increase of eight million barrels in crude supplies for the past week.   The European Commission has ruled that Starbucks and Fiat Chrysler’s tax deals with the Netherlands and Luxembourg are illegal state aid, ordering the respective governments to recover as much as $34 million from each. The ruling follows an EU investigation launched in June 2014. It looked into whether the two companies were given so-called sweetheart tax deals that effectively lowered their corporate taxes.  Who’s up next? European regulators are finishing up investigations into McDonald’s and Amazon’s tax affairs in Luxembourg and Apple’s arrangements in Ireland.   Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner said Republicans will meet on Oct. 28 to nominate a candidate to replace him. Last night, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said he would run for the job if certain conditions were met. With a critical …

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Financial Review

Black Monday + 28

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2015 DOW + 14 = 17,230 SPX + 0.55 = 2033 NAS + 18 = 4905 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.03% OIL – 1.07 = 46.19 GOLD – 7.10 = 1171.60 SILV – .20 = 15.93   Twenty-eight years ago today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed; a one day loss of 508 points, or 22.6%, down to 1,738 on what is now referred to as Black Monday. It was by far the largest one-day percentage drop in US stock market history.   China’s economy grew 6.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, beating forecasts for 6.8% growth. The results add to doubts the country can meet its year-end GDP target of about 7%, and raises pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures following a summer stock market plunge and devaluation of the yuan. Most China analysts also feel the GDP number is fictional, probably more like 3% than 6.9%, but it’s still the slowest growth since 2009.  China has been cutting its holdings of US Treasuries for the first time since 2001, but so far demand remains strong from other foreign investors and American investors.   Last month, Chinese President Xi Jingping visited Washington and an agreement was announced that China and the US would refrain from cyberattacks by each country on the other or on companies domiciled in the respective countries. Yeah, not so much. …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, …

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Financial Review

Don’t Bet the Farm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-16-2015 DOW + 140 = 16,739 SPX + 17 = 1995 NAS + 28 = 4889 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.30% OIL + 2.56 = 47.15 GOLD + 14.10 = 1120.20 SILV + .53 = 15.03   The cost of consumer goods fell in August for the first time since the beginning of the year, owing mostly to another sharp drop in gasoline prices as the summer driving season came to an end. The consumer price index, or the cost of living, fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month. That’s the first decline since January. Retail prices are up just 0.2% in the past year. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices rose 0.1% in August. Core prices have risen just 1.8% in the past 12 months, unchanged from in July.   Energy prices declined 2% in August. Most of the relief came in the form of lower prices at the pump. The cost of a regular gallon of gas fell about 8% last month. The price of fuel had risen three straight months before the decline in August. Still, energy prices are down 15% over the past year. Food prices rose again, however. They increased 0.2% in August, spurred by higher costs of eggs, fruits and vegetables. The cost of airline tickets dropped for the second straight month. The price of new cars and …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,058 SPX + 4 = 2112 NAS + 20 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.95% OIL + 1.32 = 57.48   Record highs on Wall Street today. On March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq Composite Index reached an intraday high of 5,132 and closed at 5,048. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. The Nasdaq is now up 6.8% for 2015. The Nasdaq Composite now trades at 30 times earnings, versus a multiple of 190 in March 2000; not exactly a value play, but not dot-com frothiness. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high but could not take out the 2117 record close from early March.   The number of people who applied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits ticked up 1,000 to 295,000 in the week that ended April 18. Also, the government said continuing claims, which show the number of people already receiving weekly unemployment checks, rose 50,000 to 2.33 million in the week that ended April 11.   Sales of new single-family homes dropped 11.4% to 481,000 in March, hitting the slowest pace since November.  Sales of new single-family homes increased about 19% over the past year. However, sales still remain almost 40% below a long-term pace set over 20 years.   Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ …

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Financial Review

To Be Fair

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 6 = 18,105 SPX – 1 = 2104 NAS – 3 = 5007 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.88% OIL + 12 = 56.51 GOLD – 3.70 = 1198.90 SILV – .04 – 16.37   Yesterday the ECB pledged to fulfill its €1 trillion-euro bond-buying program; today Eurozone government borrowing costs slid to new lows. Germany’s 10-year yield fell almost a basis point to 0.087% in early trade, while yields on all German government debt out to January 2024 were negative. Other notable levels include France’s 30-year yield, which fell below 1%, and the yield on two-year Portuguese bonds, which is on its way below zero.   The price of Greece’s three-year notes dropped the most since February and Greek corporate bonds also slumped. Credit-default swaps suggested there was a 79 percent chance of the country being unable to repay its debt in five years. Greece’s three-year yield is at a multiyear high, up 359 basis points at 27.7%. Expectations are low that Greece can reach a deal with its creditors at next week’s Eurogroup meeting. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Greece’s credit rating to CCC+ with a negative outlook, citing a substantial risk of a default due to the country’s drawn out negotiations with its creditors. Greece has been pushed a step closer to default and potential exit from the euro after one of its main lenders, the International Monetary …

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Financial Review

Up, Down – Take Your Pick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17,673 SPX – 8 = 2041 NAS – 11 = 4716 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.80% OIL – 4.49 = 48.56 GOLD + 8.80 = 1269.90 SILV + .06 = 17.43   ADP reports private-sector employment gains slowed in January as employers added 213,000 jobs. ADP revised December’s gain to 253,000 from a prior estimate of 241,000. The non-farm payroll report (that’s the government’s big monthly jobs report) comes out Friday morning; it is expected the economy added about 245,000 jobs in January, down from 252,000 in December.   The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index edged up to 56.7% in January from 56.5% in December. Readings over 50% signal that more businesses are expanding instead of contracting. The good news is that new orders remained very healthy. The index measuring fresh demand rose a few ticks to 59.5% and remained close to a post-recession high. On the downside, the employment gauge fell 4.1 points to 51.6%, marking the lowest level in 11 months. It was also the second worst reading in 20 months. So, on the jobs front, we should still see gains, just not as strong as the past few months.   Gallup’s Job Creation Index came in at plus 28 for the month of January. This is nearly identical to the plus 27 found in December, and just below …

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Financial Review

A Boatload of Economic News and Earnings Reports

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 216 = 16,677 SPX + 23 = 1950 NAS + 69 = 4452 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.28% OIL + 1.33 = 81.85 GOLD – 9.10 = 1232.90 SILV + .02 = 17.30 The S&P 500 has risen five times in the past six days, pushing the gauge up 4.9 percent since Oct. 15 and recouping about half the losses from a selloff that began in mid-September; the S&P is still down about 3 percent from a record. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks deals involving mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said home prices in August were up 4.8% from the year-earlier period; and up a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in August from July. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.92 percent, down from 3.97 percent last week. The average 15-year rate dropped to 3.08 percent from 3.18 percent. Mortgage rates are now at the lowest levels since the summer of 2013. Refinancing applications jumped 23 percent in the week ended Oct. 17 to an 11-month high. The number of people who applied for US unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000, but initial claims remained below the key 300,000 level for the sixth straight week. The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.8% in September, after no change in August. The index points toward improving employment and income growth …

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Financial Review

Monday, May 20, 2014 – Protected Species

Protected Species by Sinclair Noe DOW – 137 = 16,374 SPX -12 = 1872 NAS – 28 = 4096 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.51% OIL + .87 = 102.98 GOLD + 1.70 = 1295.30 SILV + .05 = 19.49 Today is Tuesday and that means that General Motors has announced another recall; this time 2.6 million more cars. Last week, GM recalled 3 million vehicles. So far this year, GM has announced 29 recalls affecting more than 15 million cars globally. The list of recalled vehicles is long. It’s easier to list the vehicles that haven’t been recalled; they have recalled 58 versions of Chevrolet and GMC pickups.   Last week the Dow hit a record high; since then it has been floundering. For the fourth straight session, the Nasdaq Composite has posted more 52-week lows than 52-week highs; 55 lows versus 38 highs. The Russell 2000 Index of small and mid-cap stocks hit a high on March 4th and since then it has dropped almost 10%.   Meanwhile, interest rates have been moving steadily lower despite winding down of large scale asset purchases under the Fed’s quantitative easing, and the talk about raising interest rates at some point down the road. With yields on the 10-yr Treasury note dipping down around 2.5%, that means somebody is buying Treasuries, but if not the Fed, then who?   Well, it’s certainly not Russia. Putin sold off more than $100 billion in Treasuries in March; he was probably expecting Treasury …

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Uncategorized

Monday, January 28, 2013 – What’s Going On

What’s Going On by Sinclair Noe DOW – 14 = 13,881SPX – 2 = 1500NAS + 4 = 315410 YR YLD + .03 = 1.97%OIL + .69 = 96.57GOLD – 4.80 = 1655.50SILV – .34 = 30.94 This will be a big week of economic reports, including: the Federal Reserve concludes its first policy meeting of 2013 on Wednesday; the monthly jobs report on Friday (look for a gain of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 7.8%); earnings reporting season continues according to expectations; tomorrow brings an update on fourth quarter GDP; later in the week we’ll see reports on incomes, spending, and sentiment. Today we learned orders for durable goods, the big-ticket items made in the US, increased 4.6% in December, fanned by a big batch of bookings for military and commercial aircraft. Demand also improved for most other makers of long-lasting goods, suggesting that US manufacturers could be poised for a modest rebound in 2013. Then Caterpillar issued a less than bright outlook for 2013, which put a damper on the sector. Toyota Motors retook the title of world’s largest auto maker, posting a 23% gain in global sales to a record 9.75 million vehicles in 2012. General Motors moved to second place in global sales at 9.29 million; Volkswagen was in third place with 9.07 million sales. The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales fell 4.3% in December, with low inventory cutting results. The trade group’s pending-home-sales index declined to 101.7 …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, December 11, 2012 – If Banks Could Kill They Probably Will

If Banks Could Kill They Probably Will by Sinclair Noe DOW + 78 = 13,248SPX + 9 = 1427NAS + 35 = 302210YR YLD +.03 = 1.65%OIL +.09 = 85.65GOLD – 2.20 = 1711.40SILV – .27 = 33.10 If all goes according to plan, in about 13 days, a star will rise in the east somewhere over Washington DC, signaling the birth of a new budget deal. If you’re waiting for three wise men, don’t hold your breath, because they couldn’t find them in our nation’s capitol. With just days to go before the nation slides down the fiscal Cliff Clavin of tax increases and spending cuts mandated by our confederacy of dunces to take effect with the passing of the arbitrary date on a calendar, there are signs that a deal to avoid the slide is near. Pert’ near every reporter in Washington says a deal is imminent. Just this Sunday, Obama and Boehner met in secret, well, not exactly a secret, and they did something, maybe they came up with a deal, maybe they barbequed some brats and watched some football, but their silence on the subject speaks volumes. Their silence almost provides proof positive that a bipartisan deal must be something that might have possibly been a part of the silent conversation, or not; but hey, it looks like a deal, except for all those pesky details. And it only took two years, possibly, of unnecessary uncertainty and sovereign debt downgrades to hammer out an agreement to …

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