Financial Review

Split

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high close. Dollar gains. Greece on the edge of… China’s reserve slip. US trade deficit grows. US consumer credit inches up. CoreLogic home price index jumps. JOLT survey – openings flat, quits down. Betsy Devos confirmed. Army goes ahead with Dakota Access Pipeline. A gift for big oil. 9th Circuit hears arguments for travel ban. Oil prices down. GM workers finally catch a break. Apple number one in phone sales. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-07-2017

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Financial Review

Waiting on the Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFed decision due Wednesday. BOJ may steal their thunder. Global debt grows. Passporting rights at risk in a hard Brexit. An oil deal in the works? Home builder confidence grows. Sarepta has a drug for Duchenne MD. Salesforce introduces A.I. Hanjin docks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-19-2016

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Financial Review

Inside the Stagecoach

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Down again. Market turbulence begets volatility. Oil falls; IEA says no equilibrium. Bolt will beat Tesla to market. Soar growth. Solar showdown in Nevada. Freeport-McMoRan exits Gulf of Mexico. Fewer in poverty. Small biz worried about election. Hanjin docks in LA. Wells Fargo – bandits inside the stagecoach. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-13-2016

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Financial Review

ECB Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSECB holds on to ultra-loose policy, earnings season, strange moves in commodities, VW will pay for un-clean diesel, nobody invests anymore. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-21-2016

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Financial Review

Most Powerful Might Not Be Enough

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-03-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-03-2016 DOW + 183 = 16,336 SPX + 9 = 1912 NAS – 12 = 4504 10 Y + .02 = 1.88% OIL + 2.41 = 32.29 GOLD + 13.20 = 1143.20     Activity in the services sector slowed to a near two-year low in January. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of non-manufacturing activity fell to 53.5 last month, the lowest level since February 2014, from 55.8 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the service sector. Service industries reported growth in new orders continued to slow, with export orders contracting last month.   Private-sector employment gains increased in January but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Employers added 205,000 jobs in January, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP tweaked December’s gain to 267,000 from a prior estimate of 257,000. The ADP report is used as an early predictor of the government’s monthly jobs report, due out Friday morning.   The Fed’s adding a new twist to its severely adverse scenario in this year’s stress test – asking lenders how they would handle a prolonged period of rates below zero. Ninety-day bill rates slipped below 0% a number of times over the past few years, but never stayed there for very long. Negative rates, of course, are breaking out all over Europe, and the Bank of Japan last week …

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Financial Review

By Land and Sea

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2016 DOW + 52 = 16,398 SPX + 1 = 1923 NAS – 5 = 4637 10 Y + .03 = 2.16% OIL – 2.04 = 31.12 GOLD – 10.40 = 1095.20     Chinese stocks saw another big drop. China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.3% on Monday, bringing its 2016 loss to 14.8%. The sell-off did not trigger circuit breakers because the Chinese exchanges gave up on that idea after last week’s big declines. The decline came even after the yuan gained following a second intervention from the central bank.   Oil prices are sharply lower to start off the week as concerns over demand from China impact trading again, along with some fresh worries. Morgan Stanley is the latest major investment firm to forecast oil prices could fall into the $20s with the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen against major currencies. WTI crude futures dropped under $32 a barrel; that is a 12 year low. And remember this is at a time of increased tension in the Middle East; forget the fear premium, at least unless shipments are actually disrupted. Meanwhile, oil is being pumped out of the ground as if price doesn’t matter. Maybe we need to re-think the idea that oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia aren’t so much pumping oil now to defend market share but to get oil out of the ground while it has any value at …

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Financial Review

Worst Ever

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-07-2016 DOW – 392 = 16,514 SPX – 47 = 1943 NAS – 146 = 4689 10 Y – .02 = 2.15 OIL – .74 = 33.23 GOLD + 15.40 = 1110.20     The Chinese stock market was open for about 15 minutes; stocks dropped 5%, triggering circuit breakers, or rules that suspended trading. When trading resumed, it was all downhill and that triggered another level of circuit breakers, shutting down trading for the day; 29 minutes in total, the shortest session in Chinese market history. Circuit breakers are a new idea for Chinese markets; they have only been used since Monday, the start of the New Year. Trading was halted on Monday for 30 minutes. We have circuit breakers in place on Wall Street, and the idea is to allow a cooling off period when stocks are in freefall. In the US, trading is halted temporarily after declines of 7% and 13% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and only suspended for the rest of the day if losses reach 20%. In China, it only seems to make investors more nervous and they scramble to sell before getting locked out. After the trading halt, Chinese regulators decided to scrap the circuit breaker rule for the foreseeable future.   The Shanghai Composite Index finished down 7% at 3,125, bringing its losses over just four trading days to …

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Financial Review

The Day of Futures Past

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-21-2015   DOW – 48 = 17,168 SPX – 11 = 2018 NAS – 40 = 4840 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.03% OIL – 1.08 = 45.21 GOLD – 9.10 = 1167.70 SILV – .22 = 15.78   Oil futures settled at their lowest level in nearly three weeks. OPEC is holding a special meeting in Vienna with cartel members and non-members Russia and Mexico to discuss ways to prop up oil prices. Don’t hold your breath. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much bigger than expected increase of eight million barrels in crude supplies for the past week.   The European Commission has ruled that Starbucks and Fiat Chrysler’s tax deals with the Netherlands and Luxembourg are illegal state aid, ordering the respective governments to recover as much as $34 million from each. The ruling follows an EU investigation launched in June 2014. It looked into whether the two companies were given so-called sweetheart tax deals that effectively lowered their corporate taxes.  Who’s up next? European regulators are finishing up investigations into McDonald’s and Amazon’s tax affairs in Luxembourg and Apple’s arrangements in Ireland.   Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner said Republicans will meet on Oct. 28 to nominate a candidate to replace him. Last night, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said he would run for the job if certain conditions were met. With a critical …

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Financial Review

Black Monday + 28

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2015 DOW + 14 = 17,230 SPX + 0.55 = 2033 NAS + 18 = 4905 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.03% OIL – 1.07 = 46.19 GOLD – 7.10 = 1171.60 SILV – .20 = 15.93   Twenty-eight years ago today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed; a one day loss of 508 points, or 22.6%, down to 1,738 on what is now referred to as Black Monday. It was by far the largest one-day percentage drop in US stock market history.   China’s economy grew 6.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, beating forecasts for 6.8% growth. The results add to doubts the country can meet its year-end GDP target of about 7%, and raises pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures following a summer stock market plunge and devaluation of the yuan. Most China analysts also feel the GDP number is fictional, probably more like 3% than 6.9%, but it’s still the slowest growth since 2009.  China has been cutting its holdings of US Treasuries for the first time since 2001, but so far demand remains strong from other foreign investors and American investors.   Last month, Chinese President Xi Jingping visited Washington and an agreement was announced that China and the US would refrain from cyberattacks by each country on the other or on companies domiciled in the respective countries. Yeah, not so much. …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, …

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