Financial Review

Can’t Confirm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-27-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS— Waiting on G20. Meanwhile, the budget marches into a wall. S&P/Case-Shiller shows home prices flattening. Consumer confidence slips. Clarida speaks; tomorrow Powell speaks. Administration threatens GM. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-27-2018

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Financial Review

October Out

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-31-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…October was a bad month for stocks, and oil. Earnings season rolls on. ADP 227k private jobs. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-31-2018

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Financial Review

Facebook Cracks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-25-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks rally on hope for trade agreement with EU. Facebook slammed on earnings. Tariffs hit multiple companies 2Q earnings. New home sales drop. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-25-2018

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Financial Review

Cats and Dogs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs. Retail leads? Trade gap grows. OPEC extends cuts. GM cheats on diesel, too. Appeals court slams immigration ban. Trump and NATO like cats and dogs. Senate to repeal Obamacare in 2020. Nvidia’s charmed existence. Hurricane season. We’re number 5!   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-25-2017

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Financial Review

Make Way for May

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-28-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Markets higher for the week and month. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft massive movers. GDP slogs thru 1Q, up 0.7%. Consumers confident. Wages inch higher but inflation lurks. US government open for another week. Brazil general strike. Euro-youth sick of status quo. IPOs diverge. Anthem-Cigna deal is dead. Chevron, Exxon, GM earnings beat. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-28-2017

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Financial Review

The Last Man on the Moon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1A-01-17-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:15 — 5.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..King Dollar gonna kill us all. Earnings season and weak forward guidance will be punished. Forget about soft Brexit. Xi to Davos. Deutsche Bank settles. BAT tobacco behemoth. Exxon buys Texas. Saudis ready to end cuts. GM announces jobs. Hyundai announces jobs. Walmart announces jobs. Lowe’s cuts. The last man on the moon. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-17-2017

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Financial Review

Immovable v. Unstoppable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-04-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..FOMC minutes show Fed on track for 3 hikes. Mortgage apps slip. Obamacare first order of business. Auto sales record for 2016. Sears closing stores. Amazon the 800-pound gorilla of holiday shopping. Kohl’s, Macy sales dip. J&J halves hip award. Barclays trader pleads guilty to Forex rigging. US big banks on hook for Euro derivatives. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-04-2017

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Financial Review

That’s a Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks slip. ECB steady. Home sales jump. LEI up. AZ unemployment jumps. Anthem & Cigna face antitrust suits. Beaucoup earnings news. Ailes out. Tesla’s super-secret plan (encoder ring included). Selfie fumblers. Printers in space. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-21-2016

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies Redux

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSMore record highs on Wall Street. Import goods inch up. Budget deficit grows as corps pay less. Beige Book, meh. Oil gluts return. May new PM. PC sales grow. New GM loses shield of Old GM. Something new under the sun – Mas Blue. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-13-2016

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Financial Review

A Weak Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  The Fed tries to jawbone the markets higher but an ugly earnings reporting season starts next week. Oil prices jump as oil spills and the dollar drops. 

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Financial Review

An Imperfect Circle

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Waiting on the Fed FOMC. The FCIC recommended criminal investigation of banksters but the DOJ lost the memo.  And today is Pi Day.

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Financial Review

Exit Signs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-13-2016   DOW – 364 = 16,151 SPX – 48 = 1890 NAS – 159 = 4526 10 Y – .04 = 2.07% OIL + .10 = 30.54 GOLD + 7.00 = 1094.50   US markets started trading higher but the gains faded fast. This has been the pattern in 4 of the last 5 trading sessions; early gains collapsing into the close. The next real level of support in the Dow is around 16,000, more specifically 15,981, the lows from September 28. Then the more significant level of support is at 15,370, the low from August 24. That doesn’t mean we will rush down to those levels. I would anticipate markets trying to rally at some point, just because the carnage has been brutal to start the year. Remember that on December 29, the Dow high was 17,750. That means the Dow is down about 1650 and closing in on a 10% correction over the course of the past 2 weeks. You can’t really call it a crash, but it is enough to make plenty of people nervous.   Yesterday, we talked about all the research analysts from the investment banks saying “sell everything” or “sell on rallies”; this kind of recommendation might be a contrarian indicator, or it might be headline grabbing hogwash, or it might be a self-fulfilling prophesy. Moving down the trading chain, …

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Financial Review

The Gravy Boat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-25-2015 DOW + 1 = 17,813 SPX – 0.27 = 2088 NAS + 13 = 5116 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.23% OIL + .25 = 43.12 GOLD – 4.50 = 1071.90 SILV – .05 = 14.26   We have a boatload, or at least a gravy boat full of economic data before we get into the holiday. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended Nov. 21. Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 38 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and remain close to levels last seen 42 years ago.   Orders for business equipment climbed more than forecast in October. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.3 percent, the most in three months, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in September; non-defense capital goods are considered a proxy for business investment. So, today’s report shows businesses are spending more on business. It may be too early to call it a trend reversal but cap ex spending had been weak, in large part due to cuts in the energy sector, and also the tendency for companies to indulge in share buybacks rather than plowing money back into the business.   Orders for all durable goods, items meant to last at least three years, climbed 3 percent. Commercial aircraft orders surged 81 …

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Financial Review

Sooner Rather Than Later

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 180 = 18,115 SPX + 20 = 2121 NAS + 68 = 5132 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.35% OIL + .53 = 60.45 GOLD + 16.90 = 1203.00 SILV + .04 = 16.26   Three straight days of gains on Wall Street.  The Nasdaq finished up 68 points, or 1.3%, to 5132.95 and hit a new intraday record high of 5143.32. That tops its previous all-time intraday high of 5132.52, set back in March 10, 2000. The Nasdaq’s previous closing high of 5,106.59 was notched much more recently, on May 27. The rally was broad-based as all 10 S&P sectors rose with health care leading the way and all 30 stocks of the Dow posted gains.   We start with economic data. The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, almost entirely because of a surge in gasoline prices ahead of the summer driving season. Gas prices shot up 10.4% to mark the largest gain in six years. The overall cost of food, meanwhile, was unchanged for the second month in a row. Stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core consumer prices rose a much milder 0.1% in May. The cost of housing, airline tickets and medical care all rose while clothing prices declined.   The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.7% in May for the second month …

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Financial Review

Understanding Global Banking

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,039 SPX + 3 = 2130 NAS + 5 = 5082 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.38% OIL – .87 = 60.56 GOLD – 3.60 = 1183.00 SILV + .02 = 16.13     Retail sales rose 1.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Auto dealers and gasoline stations posted the strongest sales, but most major retail segments saw healthy gains. What’s more, sales in April and March were stronger than initially reported. Sales at auto dealers rose 2%; the auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales were up 3.7% at gasoline stations as the price of fuel crept higher. Even if autos and gasoline are excluded, retail sales rose a healthy 0.7%.   Separately, the Federal Reserve reports household debt grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, as a 0.3% fall in mortgage debt offset a 5.6% rise in auto loans, student loans and credit cards. At the same time, real estate value increased by $411 billion. The net effect is that household net worth jumped $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt grew at a 7.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter as businesses pile on debt before a possible Fed rate increase.   The number of US workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June edged up by 2,000 to 279,000. Claims have been below …

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Financial Review

King v Burwell Plan B

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,764 SPX + 0.87 = 2080 NAS – 7 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.42% OIL + 1.81 = 59.95   Each month the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payrolls, usually that report comes out on the first Friday of the month; a few days later they release the JOLT survey, Job Openings and Labor Turnover from the prior month. Job openings at US workplaces rose to 5.3 million in April from 5.1 million in March. That’s the most job openings in 14 years, and those job openings were spread among industries, including health care, retailers and providers of professional services. Now, keep in mind that this is the Job Openings from April, and we just saw the May Jobs report, which showed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 5.4% in April to 5.5% in May; and the reason the unemployment rate was higher is because more people entered the labor pool. Most of the nearly 400,000 new job seekers were under the age of 25.   While the number of job openings soared, employers are still taking their time filling them. Total hiring in April fell to 5 million from 5.1 million. The disparity between more openings and flat hiring suggests employers are being picky about new hires. Many companies say they are having difficulty finding qualified workers. They may …

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Financial Review

A Short Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 190 = 18,041 SPX – 21 = 2104 NAS – 56 = 5032 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.14% OIL – 1.37 = 58.35 GOLD – 18.10 = 1188.80 SILV – .35 = 16.82   The S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index shows prices for existing homes rose in March. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites increased significantly, reporting 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month increases, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in March. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year.  Phoenix saw prices increase 0.6% in March,

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Financial Review

Maybe GM Is Too Damn Stupid To Exist

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,895 SPX + 25 = 2065 NAS + 43 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.14 = 47.03 Tuesday was one of the worst days for Wall Street in months; today we saw the biggest rally in a month. Go figure. The Dow and the S&P were up nearly 1.5%; the Nasdaq less of a gain as Intel warned that first-quarter sales would be below its previous outlook, given weaker-than-expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower inventory levels in the PC supply chain. Another day, another central bank jumps on the easing bandwagon.  South Korea joined twenty four countries across the globe by easing monetary policy in 2015. Taking advantage of low inflation, the Bank of Korea cut its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%. South Korea also previously cut its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.4% in January from 3.9%, and they are widely expected to lower it again next month as China’s growth continues to slow and much of Europe flounders.   The IMF has approved a bigger bailout for Ukraine, giving Kiev immediate access to $5 billion of the $17.5 billion in emergency funding to keep the country afloat. Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russian separatists has put the country’s economy into a tailspin with a plunging currency, the highest interest …

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Financial Review

How Low Did We Go

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,995 SPX +8 = 2079 NAS + 15 = 4942 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.20% OIL – 26 = 50.00 GOLD – 1.80 = 1167.90 SILV – .20 = 15.83   “How Low Can Stocks Go?” That was the headline in the Wall Street Journal 6 years ago. The Dow was still slogging through 4 straight weeks of losses to close at 6547. The S&P 500 was at a 12 year low of 676. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 1268.   Not many people called it at the time. A few did. John Bogle called it 2 weeks early. Barack Obama called it 5 days early. Mark Haines called it one day late. Of course, after all four tires go flat you might not make the prediction that there will be a fifth flat tire. Nobody was really confident about a bottom until about the end of the year. The current bull market is the fourth-longest on record; it’s also the fourth strongest. When will the bull market end? No idea. I could call the end of the bull market every day, and one day I would be right but that would be a waste off time for all of us.   For now, we have a nice bounce from the sell-off on Friday. Friday we learned the economy added 295,000 jobs last …

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Financial Review

It’s About to Get Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 18,019 SPX + 8 = 2096 NAS + 36 = 4893 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.02% OIL + 1.43 = 52.46 GOLD + 6.20 = 1228.90 SILV + .48 = 17.42 The S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high, taking out the previous record close from December 29. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high, we acknowledge it, but for some reason we don’t have a big celebration. When the Dow Industrials hit records we have the orchestra, the parade, milk and cookies; it’s a big ridiculous mess, but S&P 500 record high close; well done, attaboy, next.   Next would be the Russell 2000 index of small and mid-cap stocks hitting a record high close. Well done, next.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 18,000 for the first time this year. The Nasdaq Composite ended at its highest level since March 2000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2%. The Dow Industrial Average was up 1.1% on the week. For the second day, American Express led declines for the Dow, following news Costco was ending its exclusive business arrangement with AmEx. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3% over the past week, and is now within a few percentage points of record highs. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% on the week.   In economic news, consumer sentiment slipped in …

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