Uncategorized

Friday, November 30, 2012 – We’re All Just Muppets Living in a Fairy World

We’re All Just Muppets Living in a Fairy World by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 13,025SPX +0.23 = 1416NAS – 1 = 301010 YR YLD – .01 = 1.61%OIL + .88 = 88.95GOLD – 10.60 = 1716.20SILV – .85 – 33.54 October 31 Closing Numbers:       DOW                                                13096SPX                                                 1412NAS                                                 297710 YR YLD                                      1.69% OIL                                                   88.51GOLD                                              1721.20SILV                                                 32.36 So for all the talk about the fiscal cliff, the election, Hurricane Sandy, The Euro-Debt Crisis, the unrest in the Middle East; for all that and more, the markets gave a big yawn in the month of November. So, yesterday afternoon the House Republicans told reporters that the White House plan to avert the fiscal cliff was nothing more than a “joke”, an “insult”, and a “complete break from reality.” Mitch McConnell said he “burst into laughter. John Boehner said: “It was not a serious proposal.”  The plan, or the opening salvo from the White House calls for $1.6 trillion in tax increases spread out over ten years, $50 billion in additional stimulus spending, and $400 billion in spending cuts over ten years, plus an extension of the 2 percentage point payroll tax deduction or something comparable to it, and a permanent extension on the debt ceiling. Meanwhile, the Republican plan is, well, it’s still something of a mystery but we know they want cuts to entitlement programs, and no they’re not referring to the corporate welfare programs that allow $1.5 trillion in corporate …

READ MORE →

Tuesday, October 30, 2012 – Sandy, FEMA, Elections, Star Wars, Gold

Sandy, FEMA, Elections, Star Wars, Gold by Sinclair Noe Of course the over-riding story of the day is Hurricane Sandy. The latest is that the death toll has climbed to 40. Search and rescue missions are constant and ongoing. The death toll included 17 victims in New York State; 10 of them in New York City, along with five each in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Sandy also killed 69 people in the Caribbean before making its way up the Eastern Seaboard. Haiti was hardest hit by the storm; 54 Haitians died, with 20 still missing. Tens of thousands have been left homeless.Crops were devastated. Many Haitians were still living in tents following the 2010 earthquake. Hurricane Sandy has worsened the threats of cholera and food shortages. We should be proud of how we have responded to this natural disaster, but there is still a lot of damage and it will take time to clean up. About 8 million people are without electricity. More than 16,000 airline flights have been canceled. The economic damage will be massive. But it’s too early to say exactly how much it will be. The Jersey Shore was hit especially hard. Lower Manhattan was flooded by an 14 foot surge of seawater, a record. Commuter tunnels and subway tunnels are underwater. Wall Street was closed today, feeling a little under the weather. There was electronic trading in the commodities markets. Gold – .80 = 1710.00, Silver – ,01 = 31.85, crude oil – .02 = 86.57. …

READ MORE →

Monday, September 24, 2012 – Counting Fingers

Counting Fingers by Sinclair Noe DOW – 20 = 13,558SPX – 3 = 1456NAS – 19 = 316010 YR YLD -.04 = 1.72%OIL +.14 = 92.07GOLD – 8.50 = 1765.50SILV – .55 = 34.07PLAT – 16.00 = 1626.00 Goldman Sachs is out with some research. I always feel more than a little skepticism when reading Goldman research. It’s tough to believe a research report from a company you know would bet against you. You want to count your fingers after shaking hands. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the “fiscal cliff” to push the market lower in the fourth quarter, and they recommend investors sell the stocks that have lagged so far this year. Goldman chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin writes that the S&P 500 should fall sharply after the election when investors finally realize that there is a possibility that the fiscal cliff will not be resolved smoothly. He says the majority of investors expect to see the fiscal cliff avoided in the lame duck session of Congress, but Goldman sees a one-in-three chance that Congress will fail to address the issue. Goldman says a catch-up strategy could be to sell stocks that have had the worst performance year-to-date. In the 23 years that the S&P was positive in the first nine months, a sector-neutral basket of underperforming stocks continued underperforming by an average 291 basis points during the fourth quarter, giving the strategy a 65 percent outperformance rate. In a separate report, Goldman forecasts an 18.2 percent return on …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, August 21, 2012 – A Crash? Your Guess is as Good as the Economists, Maybe Better

A Crash? Your Guess is as Good as the Economists, Maybe Better -by Sinclair Noe DOW – 68 = 13,203SPX – 4 = 1413NAS – 8 = 306710 YR YLD -.01 = 1.80%OIL -.30 = 98.16GOLD + 17.40 = 1639.60SILV + .52 = 29.43PLAT + 25.00 = 1516.00 Normally, these are the slow,  sultry, dog days of summer; that’s what we’ve seen lately. Volume has been so light that you wondered if everyone had gone to sleep. And then this morning, people started trading, or maybe the computers started trading. Who can say which? Volume jumped to the highest in 3 weeks and prices flopped.  David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist, has sent a note to clients advising them to get out of stocks; Kostin is forecasting a 12 percent drop ahead, down to about 1250, believing that Congress will fail to address the fiscal cliff before the election, and maybe even before the end of the year. Kostin says: “Political realities and last year’s precedent suggest the potential that Congress fails to reach agreement in addressing the fiscal cliff is greater than what most investors seem to believe based on our client conversations.” According to Goldman Sachs economists, the worst case scenario this year is that a lame duck Congress does absolutely nothing after the election – not even kick the can down the road by voting in a short extension of the tax breaks and spending plans. Under that scenario, 2013 GDP would actually contract. Now normally …

READ MORE →

Friday, August 17, 2012 – We All Want Justice but You’ve Got to Have Money to Buy It

We All Want Justice but You’ve Got to Have Money to Buy It-by Sinclair Noe  DOW + 25 = 13,275SPX + 2 = 1418NAS + 14 = 307610 YR YLD -.02 = 1.82%OIL + .61 = 96.21GOLD + 1.10 = 1616.80SILV – .13 = 28.19 PLAT + 34.00 = 1479.00 We had a bunch of economic reports this week. Here’s a quick review:The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures inflation at the retail level; in July the overall consumer prices were unchanged, while the core gauge rose 0.2%. The CPI rose 1.4% over the year through July, the smallest 12-month change since late 2010.  The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures inflation at the wholesale level; it rose 0.3% in July. Higher  food prices were only slightly offset by lower energy prices. In the 12 months ending in July, producer prices rose 0.5%, the smallest gain since October 2009.  However, food prices jumped, with corn prices leading the way, up 34.5% for the month. That will filter through the economy. Energy prices were down in July, but they’ve been moving higher. Inflation is not a problem right now, but wait.  Initial filings for unemployment benefits climb by 2,000 to 366,000 in the latest week, but the four-week moving average dropped to its lowest level since March. While the July unemployment figure rose a tenth of a point from June to 8.3 percent, the government says 44 states saw their jobless rates increase. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate at 12%. California …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, August 10, 2012 – The Case for Silver and a Few Odd Notes

The Case for Silver and a Few Odd Notes-by Sinclair Noe DOW  + 42 = 13,207SPX + 3 = 1405NAS + 2 = 302010 YR YLD- .04 = 1.65OIL – .15 = 94.69GOLD + 3.50 = 1621.50SILV -.01 = 28.23PLAT – 14.00 = 1404.00 The case for silver:  April last year, silver peaked just shy of $50 an ounce, and then fell back hard. Since then, silver has been either off the radar or hated. It has been hovering around $27 since May, testing people’s patience. As a rule, silver prices usually follow the direction of gold. But as long time silver investors recognize, the moves are amplified both on the downside and the upside. Silver prices are simply more volatile than gold prices. Already in this decade, silver has risen by a factor of 12 from its ten-year low ($48.70 vs. $4.07), while gold has seen about a sevenfold climb ($255.95 vs. $1,895).  The three biggest silver corrections in the current bull market average to 42.1%. Silver corrections are deeper and nastier and take longer for recovery. The average 42.1% correction took 98 weeks and 4 days to recover; using the same ratio, a 46.3% correction would take 108 weeks and 3 days. Counting from the previous peak of April 28, 2011, we wouldn’t break the $48.70 high until May 26, 2013. Based on this same correlation of corrections to recovery in the gold market, we can expect gold to challenge old highs in the October to November time frame. …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, July 11, 2012 – Toodaloo San Berdoo

Toodaloo San Berdoo-by Sinclair NoeDOW – 48 = 12,604SPX – .02 = 1341NAS – 14 = 288710YR YLD un = 1.50%OIL + .18 = 85.99GOLD + 10.10 = 1577.60SILV +.33 = 27.24PLAT + 6.00 = 1435.00The city council of San Bernardino, California, voted last night to file for bankruptcy, marking the third time in recent weeks a California city is seeking bankruptcy protection. The decision followed a report by city staff that said the city faced an imminent financial crisis. The report said the city had exhausted its reserves and projected that spending would exceed revenue by $45 million in the current fiscal year which started on July 1.The city attorney general James Penman said San Bernardino’s city officials had been submitting false accounting documents for 13 of the last 16 years in an effort to hide the real financial situation of the city. That period covers the tenure of multiple city managers and sets of elected officials, but it predates the  Acting City Manager.San Bernardino will join the California communities of Stockton and Mammoth Lakes in bankruptcy court. Stockton failed on June 28th, after three months of talks with its creditors to obtain concessions to close its $26 million budget gap. Mammoth Lakes, a ski resort town of about 8,000 residents, last week filed for bankruptcy due to a nearly $43 million legal judgment against it.San Bernardino has suffered from the housing crash and high unemployment. According to the report to its city council, the city “has reached a …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, June 25, 2012 – Spain and Cyprus Fall – US Banks Insure Bets – Goldman Behaves Badly – Congressional Insider Trading – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 138 = 12,502SPX – 21 = 1313NAS – 56 = 283610 YR YLD -.06 = 1.61%OIL -.06 = 79.15GOLD + 13.00 = 1585.30SILV +.64 = 27.64PLAT + 9.00 = 1450.00So, the good news is that the Dow only dropped 138.It could have been worse; or better, depending on your perspective. Back in April we advised heeding the old advice to sell in May and stay away. May was a horrible month. The first couple of weeks in June, we bounced back just a little, then we continue the declines.This Euro-problem just never dies. There will be another emergency two day Euro-summit starting Thursday.  This appears to be the one area of relentless growth in Europe – the emergency summit business. I’m guessing that the caterers and event planners in Brussels are posting nifty profits. Expectations are low after Germany resisted pressure for common euro zone bonds or a flexible use of Europe’s rescue funds at a meeting of the region’s four biggest economies last week. Austerity measures pushed forward by Germany have tested the patience of the Greeks. The Greek government had to begin a search for a new finance minister after the nominee for the post said he could not serve because of health reasons. The situation in Greece sometimes seems it is never-ending. Cyprus announced it was seeking a bailout for its banks and its budget. Cyprus joins Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in seeking EU rescue funds, meaning more than a quarter of the 17 euro …

READ MORE →

Monday, June 4, 2012 – Euro-crisis Moving Faster

DOW – 17 = 12,101SPX +0.14 = 1278NAS + 12 = 276010 YR YLD +.06 = 1.53%OIL +.15 = 84.13GOLD – 8.00 = 1619.30SILV – .42 = 28.36PLAT – 19.00 = 1434.00 Finance chiefs of the Group of Seven leading industrialized powers will hold emergency talks on the euro zone debt crisis tomorrow. The economic problems have spread and the G-7 teleconference is at least an admission that the euro is breaking down as a viable economic undertaking. We are finally moving past denial. There’s something rotten in Denmark; the Danish central bank cut interest rates twice last week; they say they’re battening down the hatches for a splintering of the European Monetary union. The European Commission said monetary union was in danger of “disintegration” and the European Central Bank said it was “unsustainable” as constructed. Felipe Gonzalez,the former Spanish prime minister says the Spanish economy is facing a “total emergency”, which is – just guessing here – a bit more problematic than a partial emergency. The Cypriot banking system is nine times the country’s GDP and they are now begging for a bailout. What a shocker. Cyprus is on the verge of becoming Iceland South. Switzerland is threatening capital controls to repel bank flight from Euroland. The Swiss two-year note has fallen to -0.32%; if you want to park money in the safe haven of Swiss bonds, you pay for the privilege. US 10-year note yield dropped down to 1.44%, lower than during the Great Depression. The United States …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, May 22, 2012 – Bank Scum – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 1 = 12,502 SPX +0.64 = 1316NAS – 8 = 283910 YR YLD +.06 = 1.79%OIL – .92 = 91.65GOLD – 24.10 = 1569.30SILV – .27 = 28.30PLAT – 23.00 = 1451.00 Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are just pure scum. No wait, I shouldn’t say that; it’s much too kind; they are lying, stinking, thieving, dangerous scum. Maybe you heard about a little company called Facebook; it went public last Friday. Today, Reuters is reporting Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs all cut their earning forecasts for Facebook in the middle of the IPO roadshow. You didn’t hear about that? No, you did not hear about that because the big banksters didn’t tell you. Why didn’t they tell you? Because they thought it would be much better to screw the public and try to make a quick buck on insider information, which they are required by law to report. Instead, the banksters passed the information only to a handful of big investor clients. This is a problem because earnings forecasts are material information, especially when they are prepared by analysts who have special access to company information and company management. Everybody who invested in Facebook would consider this material information when making an informed decision. The handful of big investors that did receive the information about reduced revenue forecasts were reportedly shocked. The change in Morgan Stanley’s estimates came on the heels of Facebook’s filing of an amended prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in …

READ MORE →