Financial Review

Or Just Google It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2016 DOW – 17 = 16,449 SPX – 0.86 = 1939 NAS + 6 = 4620 10 Y + .04 = 1.97% OIL – 2.23 = 31.39 GOLD + 10.20 = 1129.00   Following the S&P’s worst January since 2009 ( down -5.1%), and a volatile month for oil prices, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, while lots of economic data (manufacturing figures, auto sales and Friday’s jobs report) could also help determine the future direction of stocks. The consensus estimate calls for about 185,000 net new jobs in January, down from 292,000 in December. And just a reminder that last Friday brought the first look at fourth quarter GDP, which grew at an anemic 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a bad quarter to be sure, and real GDP is up only 1.8% from a year ago. That’s a weak year judged by the US postwar average of 3.1%, but is not far from the 2.1% annual growth we’ve been averaging since 2009. The Atlanta Fed model’s initial estimate for first-quarter growth has been published; the “Nowcast” of first-quarter growth calls for 1.2% annualized growth. Weak, but not recessionary.   Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates; this Wednesday BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to speak. Today, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi addressed the …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Lonesome Tom and Tom Alone

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-27-2016 DOW – 222 = 15,944 SPX – 20 = 1882 NAS – 99 = 4468 10 Y + .01 = 2.00% OIL + .71 = 32.16 GOLD + 5.00 = 1125.70 Stocks started the session down, a little over 150 points, then rallied and turned positive, then the Fed released its policy statement to wrap up its two-day FOMC meeting, and stocks fell again; 350 points from peak to trough, even though there was no surprise in the statement.   The Federal Reserve statement had a few changes from the last statement. First, there was no change in interest rates – as expected. The Fed says it expects the economy will continue to warrant only gradual rate increases – as expected. They will closely monitor global economic and financial developments – a soft backpedal from December, when they said risks were balanced. Not a big surprise. Inflation is expected to remain low because oil prices are down, but that won’t last forever – yeah, yeah. The strong dollar is a bit of a drag. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year – an acknowledgement that economic growth slowed, well that’s different. Their confidence in the economy has eroded since December. Not exactly. The Fed also noted the strength of …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

A Far, Far Better Thing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-03-2015 DOW – 252 = 17,477 SPX – 29 = 2049 NAS – 85 = 5037 10 YR YLD + .15 = 2.33% OIL + 1.33 = 41.27 GOLD + 8.40 = 1062.60 The S&P 500 suffered its biggest drop since late September.   The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate commercial banks must pay to store money overnight to minus 0.3% from minus 0.2%. The ECB left its key lending rate unchanged at 0.05% and the rate on its marginal lending facility at 0.3%. They also announced they will extend their bond buying program until March 2017. But the central bank did not increase the monthly spending on bonds beyond the current monthly level of 60 billion euros, or $63 billion. With inflation at just 0.1%, unemployment still over 10% and bank lending disappointing, many analysts were expecting more aggressive moves. Now, here’s where it got interesting; the dollar index dropped over 2%, at one point the euro was up about 3% but finished trade with modest gains. Early this morning the Financial Times tweeted and reported the ECB was leaving rates unchanged. Oops. But even after the correction, the euro held on to some of the gains.   Even as the ECB announced fresh stimulus, the Federal Reserve is considering tightening monetary policy. Actually, it is more than just a consideration – the Fed has now …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Times Are Changing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-30-2015 DOW – 92 = 17,663 SPX – 10 = 2079 NAS – 20 = 5053 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.14% OIL + .37 = 46.43 GOLD – 4.50 = 1142.00 SILV – .12 = 15.56   The Senate officially passed the budget deal this morning, averting debt default next week or a government shutdown in December. The agreement will increase spending by $80 billion above sequestration caps for military and domestic programs and lift the debt ceiling through March 2017. The House approved the deal on Wednesday and President Obama will now sign it into law.   The cost of employing the average U.S. worker sped up in the third quarter after a record-low increase in the spring. The employment cost index advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.6% from July to September after a 0.2% gain in the second quarter. Wages – some 70% of employment costs – rose 0.6% in the third quarter. Benefits increased 0.5%. Over the past 12 months, employment costs have risen an unadjusted 2%. This is an old story. Despite some ups and downs over the decades, US household incomes have been roughly stagnant for about 30 years. Even though wages have been stagnant, consumers keep consuming.   Core prices, which strip out food and energy costs, rose 0.1% from August and are up 1.3% from a year earlier. Consumer spending rose a …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after two …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Courage to Act, or Not

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-05-2015   DOW + 304 = 16,776 SPX + 35 = 1987 NAS + 73 = 4781 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.06% OIL + .72 = 46.26 GOLD – 2.50 = 1136.90 SILV + .40 = 15.77   The Dow Industrial Average has gone from a low of 16,013 Friday morning after the jobs report to an intraday high today of 16,798, or a swing of 785 points. The S&P 500 rose for a fifth session in a row, its longest winning streak this year   The US, Japan and 10 other Pacific Rim economies have reached agreement to strike the largest trade pact seen anywhere in two decades. The Trans-Pacific Partnership covers some 40% of the global economy and will create a new Pacific economic bloc with reduced trade barriers relating to the flow of everything from beef and dairy products to textiles and data as well as new standards and rules for investment, the environment and labor.   Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has published a new book, entitled “The Courage to Act” and so he’s making the rounds. In a CNBC interview, Bernanke said that slow productivity growth is weighing on the economy, and there’s too much reliance on the central bank. He said other policymakers in the government need to step up. He refused to second guess current Fed Chair Janet Yellen on …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Beverly, Hills That Is

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-01-2015 DOW – 469 = 16,058 SPX – 58 = 1913 NAS – 140 = 4636 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – 4.99 = 44.21 GOLD + 5.40 = 1140.80 SILV – .01 = 14.72   Another rough day for stocks across the world after twin surveys showed China’s manufacturing sector in the grip of its worst slump in several years. Asian stocks slumped on the first trading day of September, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index chalking up a near 4 percent loss into correction territory. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as much as 3.2 percent. The major US averages lost more than 6 percent each in August. The New York Stock Exchange invoked Rule 48 for the fourth time in two weeks.   If you want, you could blame it on the Fed, as good a culprit as any; they want to raise rates despite data. Or you could look to a global slowdown, as emerging markets struggle with lower and lower commodity prices. The High Frequency Traders certainly can be considered culpable, not for starting the fire but for splashing kerosene on the flames. But really, this is just what markets do. It’s not one thing that causes a market to tumble, it is the added weight of many things. And a market looking to sell is going to sell. The major averages ended in correction territory, down nearly 3 …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Fluctuating Between Ugly and Ugly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-20-2015 DOW – 358 = 16,990 SPX – 43 = 2035 NAS – 141 = 4877 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.08% OIL + .34 = 41.14 GOLD + 19.00 = 1154.10 SILV + .27 = 15.68   Well, it was just ugly. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting. Many investors and traders interpreted the policymakers’ discussions as dovish, with the probability of a rate boost next month sliding to 36 percent from about 50 percent earlier in the day. The matter is still open to debate, and the bottom line is that we have to wait about 4 weeks to find out what the Fed will do.   Today, stocks closed near session lows, off about 2%; and it smacks of a rate tantrum, traders expressing their dis-satisfaction to let the Fed know they are opposed to rate hikes. The other reading is that a dovish Fed might mean that the global economy really is weak; the drop in commodities is hurting emerging markets; the strength of the dollar is hurting US exporters; we are now facing currency wars; and global growth (or the lack thereof) will weigh on the US economy. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates, it’s because the market is too fragile. The S&P 500 fell into negative territory for the year, with consumer discretionary the greatest decliner on the day. …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Dead Cats and Shade Balls

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-11-2015 DOW – 212 = 17,402 SPX – 20 = 2084 NAS – 65 = 5036 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.14% OIL – 1.71 = 43.25 GOLD + 4.60 = 1109.70 SILV + .13 = 15.46   Since mid-July the Dow Industrial Average has dropped from a high of 18,137, including a 5 session losing streak; in late July the Dow dropped below its 200 day moving average, indicating a downtrend; it bounced up to touch the 200-day moving average but could not break through; after that we started August with a 6 session losing streak. Yesterday, the Dow bounced 241 points; and that is looking like a dead cat bounce today.   China’s central bank devalued the yuan in an effort to help jump-start its stalling economy. The central bank cut its daily reference rate by 1.9 percent, triggering the yuan’s biggest one-day drop since China ended a dual-currency system. For background, the yuan’s peg to the dollar had been in place since 2006. The People’s Bank of China, their central bank, would buy or sell yuan to keep the currency near a certain value against the dollar. The dollar’s been strong since 2011. And so, the peg made the yuan strong too.   The People’s Bank of China called the change a one-time adjustment and said its fixing will become more aligned with supply and demand. Outside …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Half True

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-10-2015 DOW + 241 = 17,615 SPX + 26 = 2104 NAS + 58 = 5101 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.24% OIL + .95 = 44.82 GOLD + 10.30 = 1105.10 SILV + .41 = 15.33   Berkshire Hathaway is buying Precision Castparts for $235 per share in cash in a deal worth about $37 billion. On Friday, Precision Castparts closed at $193.94, meaning Berkshire is paying a 21% premium to own the company. Berkshire originally began investing in Precision Castparts in 2012 and had already acquired a 3% stake before today’s announcement. Berkshire Hathaway posted disappointing earnings on Friday. Revenue for the second quarter came in at $54 billion. Precision Castparts makes parts for the aerospace industry, and also the energy industry; their major customers are Boeing, General Electric, and Airbus. This is a company with a large moat; there is a big barrier for new competition; GE isn’t going to outsource parts inside a jet engine for a couple of dollars savings. And there is a good chance that PCP can make some decent sized acquisitions to consolidate its industry, or what Buffett calls “bolt-on’ acquisitions.   When you consider some of the recent acquisitions by Warren Buffett, it becomes clear that Berkshire Hathaway is no longer a pseudo-hedge fund or quasi-mutual fund. It is a diversified conglomerate with interests in heavy industry, transportation, consumer …

READ MORE →