Financial Review

Flowers for Angela

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17, 678 SPX + 5 = 2057 NAS + 13 = 4771 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.83% OIL – .49 = 45.10 GOLD – 12.80 = 1282.30 SILV – .39 = 18.01 It’s snowing in New York; this is a really, really big blizzard and it could dump up to 3 feet of snow across the northeast, with winds up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has already caused more than 1,800 flight cancellations, roads are closed in New York City except for emergency vehicles, rail traffic is also shut down, and schools are closed, and expect power outages across the Northeast. The Super Bowl will be this weekend in Glendale, and temperatures are expected to be mid-70’s. The folks at the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce are doing their happy dance. This week’s economic calendar is packed, plus we are in earnings reporting season and some big names will post results this week. Microsoft reported after the close today, and we’ll get to that in just a moment. Apple reports tomorrow. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, reports results on Thursday; it could be an early indicator of the damage being done to company earnings by lower oil prices. Ford Motor, the nation’s second-largest automaker, reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. On Wednesday, the Fed will end its two-day policy meeting with a statement but …

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Financial Review

Behind the Curtain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 16,117 SPX + 0.27 = 1862 NAS + 2 = 4217 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.15% OIL + 1.16 = 82.94 GOLD – 2.20 = 1239.90 SILV – .08 = 17.47 The Dow is down for a sixth consecutive session. We started the morning down almost 200 points, so there is that. Part of yesterday’s volatility is being blamed on mini-flash crashes; 179 to be precise. Basically the high frequency traders yank their bids, as their algorithms try to catch up with big moves. It isn’t really a flash crash so much as a lack of liquidity. Take a deep breath. Think about how you are invested. Consider whether you are diversified across asset classes. The market has not collapsed. It has gone down in a fairly fast and furious manner, but it has not collapsed. What will happen next? Will the market bounce back? Will it go sideways? Will the pullback continue and become really painful? You don’t know; I don’t know; the market doesn’t know; nobody knows. Take a deep breath, consider where you are and where you want to be in the future. The stock market is always a gamble. Maybe you want to gamble with a part of your money, and that’s fine. Maybe you are tired of gambling and want to find something safer; that’s cool, too. Just understand what you’re doing. …

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Financial Review

War, Inversions, and Climate

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 116 = 17,055 SPX – 11 = 1982 NA – 19 = 4508 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.53% OIL + .06 = 91.62 GOLD + 8.10 = 1223.90 SILV + .05 = 17.88 First up: war. You’ve probably heard by now that the US launched several airstrikes against ISIS targets inside Syria and, separately, in potentially averting an imminent threat to the homeland from an al Qaeda group called Khorasan. Many of the targets were in and around Raqqa, Syria, believed to be an ISIS stronghold. Several Arab nations took part in the US-led operation: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A spokesman for the Pentagon said they are still assessing the effectiveness of the bombing campaign but the Pentagon believes they were “successful in hitting what we were aiming at.” The airstrikes against Khorasan was in response to threats, however officials so far have provided no details about the terrorists’ planned attack or the credibility of the intelligence they had on it. A Pentagon spokesman said “the individuals plotting and planning it were eliminated.” The Syrian government says the US told it of plans to carry out airstrikes. The State Department immediately denied that it gave prior notification. Reuters reports Iranian officials were informed of the airstrikes in advance, but not specific targets. Meanwhile, the Israeli military said that it had shot down a …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, April 16, 2014 – What is Really Plausible

What is Really Plausible by Sinclair Noe DOW + 162 = 16,424SPX + 19 = 1862NAS + 52 = 408610 YR YLD + .01 = 2.63%OIL + .05 = 103.81GOLD – .20 = 1303.20SILV + .07 = 19.73 Let’s start with some earnings news and then we’ll move over to economic data. Google posted $3.4 billion in net income, or $5.04 per share, in the three months ended March 31, compared to $3.3 billion, or $4.97 per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 19% to $15.4 billion, but analysts had estimated $15.5 billion, and the shares were getting clobbered in late trades. IBM reported its lowest quarterly revenue in five years; IBM reported revenue of $21.7 billion for the quarter, but that marks the eighth consecutive decline in quarterly revenue. The company has been restructuring its business by cutting jobs and selling its low-end server business. This is not what you would call a growth model. Also, from the faulty business model file: Bank of America posted a $276 million loss for the most recent quarter. The financial results included a pre-tax expense of $6 billion, or approximately 40 cents a share after tax, to cover litigation costs as the bank moved to resolve mortgage-related litigation fallout from the financial crisis that began in 2007 and other issues; far worse than the $3.7 billion investors had braced for. The bank today agreed to a $584 million settlement of litigation over nine residential mortgage-backed securitizations insured by the Financial Guaranty …

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Friday, October 18, 2013 – Biscuits on the Dark Side of the Moon

Biscuits on the Dark Side of the Moon by Sinclair Noe DOW + 28 = 15,399SPX + 11 = 1744NAS + 51 = 391410 YR YLD un = 2.59%OIL + .28 = 101.15GOLD – 2.70 = 1318.40SILV + .07 = 22.06 There will be a lunar eclipse a little later this hour. In the West we won’t see it, but you can phone your friends in the East. Maybe it explains something. The S&P 500 index hit another all time record close. Tobias Levkovich is the chief US equity strategist for Citigroup, and he may have had the best analysis of post-deal state of the markets: “Kicking the proverbial can down the street does not address the long-term fiscal imbalances. The twin decisions of a taper timing push out and the discord in Washington being swept under the rug until January and February roll in could keep P/E multiples more compressed as equity risk premiums stay elevated. Investors typically do not like uncertainty and it is hard to determine how these recent almost non-decisions can be seen as reinvigorating confidence aside from some relief that an imminent likely disaster has been avoided. Nonetheless, one cannot respectably believe that things truly have turned for the better as opposed to averting the worst. The long-term growth of non-discretionary government spending can still prove to be an overwhelming liability and it has not been the primary focus for legislators.” Larry Summers will not be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and maybe that gives …

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Thursday, October 17, 2013 – No Winners, No Free Lunch

No Winners, No Free Lunch by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 15,371SPX + 11 = 1733NAS + 23 = 386310 YR YLD – .08 = 2.58%OIL – 1.59 = 100.70GOLD + 37.40 = 1321.10SILV + .47 = 21.99 The S&P 500 closed at a record high. We don’t celebrate a record high on the S&P. When the Dow hits a record high we have milk and cookies. No particular reason, we just don’t celebrate. “There are no winners here,” that was the declaration from President Obama this morning. He then cited the damage done: families going without paychecks, home buyers and small businesses unable to get loans, consumers cutting back on spending, businesses pushing back hiring plans, and increased borrowing costs which add to the deficit. Washington’s budget battle could result in a $24 billion hit to the US economy. That estimate comes courtesy of ratings firm Standard & Poor’s; they say the 16-day government shutdown and the wrangling over the debt limit shaved at least 0.6%, maybe a full point, off fourth quarter GDP growth. They had been estimating 3% annualized growth in the fourth quarter; now they peg it at 2%. The $24 billion loss is substantial, especially for a self inflicted wound. But wait, there’s more. Macroeconomic Advisers says the whole fiasco likely cost 900,000 jobs and possibly more in the months ahead. And one of the little noticed side stories is that the fiscal cliff inspired sequestration cuts, inspired by the debt ceiling debates of …

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Wednesday, August 14, 2013 – Gripped by Euphoria

Gripped by Euphoria by Sinclair Noe DOW – 113 = 15,337SPX – 8 = 1685NAS – 15 = 366910 YR YLD – .03 = 2.71%OIL + .11 = 106.94GOLD + 15.10 = 1337.50SILV + .41 = 21.88 Egypt’s military was accused of pushing the country towards civil war after hundreds of protesters were believed to have been killed in a “massacre” at two Muslim Brotherhood protest camps.Security forces used machine guns, snipers, tear gas and armoured bulldozers during a full scale assault to clear the camps in Cairo. The operation left a scene of carnage on the capital’s streets and Egypt embroiled in its worst turmoil since the start of the Arab Spring. With clashes breaking out across the country, the military declared a month-long state of national emergency and imposed a sweeping curfew in major cities. Wednesday’s operation was the culmination of a six-week stand-off between Egypt’s security forces and the Muslim Brotherhood which followed the military’s decision to remove Mohammed Morsi as president. He had been the country’s first Islamist leader and its first to be democratically elected. Mr Morsi’s supporters had vowed to occupy two protest camps,in Cairo until he was reinstated. That ended when the military moved into both camps with decisive force. The Muslim Brotherhood put the number of dead at more than 500, and said that those killed in the “massacre” included unarmed civilians, women and children. Egypt’s health ministry gave an official death toll of 149, with more than 1,400 injured, although those figures were …

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Thursday, November 29,2012 – Place Your Bets

Place Your Bets by Sinclair Noe Let’s start with the important numbers today: 5, 16, 22, 23, 29, and the Powerball 6. And I did not win. Somebody in Missouri and somebody in Phoenix are holding the winning tickets. Not me. All I’m holding is a $10 piece of paper which is my donation to the tax fund for the mathematically challenged. DOW + 36 = 13,021SPX + 6 = 1415 NAS + 20 = 301210 YR YLD un = 1.62%OIL + 1.23 = 87.72GOLD + 6.00 = 1726.80SILV + .50 = 34.27 The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate from July through September, much faster than first thought. The Commerce Department said growth in the third quarter was significantly better than the 2 percent rate estimated a month ago. And it was more than twice the 1.3 percent rate reported for the April-June quarter. The main reason for the upward revision to the gross domestic product was businesses restocked at a faster pace than previously estimated. That offset weaker consumer spending growth. The fourth quarter GDP is expected to drop back down below 2 percent because of Hurricane Sandy, which put the brakes on all sorts of business activity along the East Coast. And then the other reason cited for the possible fourth quarter slowdown is the fiscal cliff. (Sorry, we just can’t get through the day without talking about it.) So, here is the annotated version of today’s fiscal cliff report: a little partisan sniping, …

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Monday, November 12, 2012 – Render Unto Caesar, and Don’t Forget Interest

Render Unto Caesar, and Don’t Forget InterestBy Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.31 = 12,815SPX + 0.18 = 1380NAS -0.62 = 290410 YR YLD = 1.60%OIL – .50 = 85.57GLD – 2.00 = 1729.80SLV – .21 = 32.52 British lawmakers have criticized executives of Starbucks, Google and Amazon on Monday for not paying more tax in Britain and Amazon said it had received a $252 million demand for back taxes from France. Britain and Germany last week announced plans to push the Group of 20 economic powers to make multinational companies pay their “fair share” of taxes following reports of large firms exploiting loopholes to avoid taxes. One of the members of Parliament explained the problem: “You’re either running the business badly, or there’s some fiddle going on.” Starbucks seems to be selling a lot of coffee in the UK; over the past 3 years they’ve sold more than 3 billion pounds (weight) of coffee but they haven’t paid any tax. (fiddle) Amazon just refuses to answer questions by the British tax authorities.(fiddle) And Google has apparently been playing the game. Google’s filings show it had $4 billion of sales in the UK last year, but despite having a group-wide profit margin of 33 percent, its main UK unit reported a loss in 2011 and 2010. It had a tax charge of just 3.4 million pounds in 2011. (fiddle) The search engine provider books European sales via an Irish unit, an arrangement that allowed it to pay taxes at a rate of …

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Wednesday, June 27, 2012 – To Your Health; Spanish Junk; Barclays Bad; Falcone Flunks; Bhopal Veggie Garden; Goodnight Stockton

To Your Health; Spanish Junk; Barclays Bad; Falcone Flunks; Bhopal Veggie Garden; Goodnight Stockton – by Sinclair NoeDOW + 92 = 12,627SPX + 11 = 1331NAS + 21 = 287510 YR YLD -.01 = 1.62%OIL +.27 = 80.48GOLD + 1.60 = 1575.20SILV – .17 = 27.04PLAT – 18.00 = 1415.00According to the Centers for  Medicare and Medicaid Services, health spending accounts for about 18% of the GDP of the United States. So, tomorrow’s ruling by the Supreme Court on President Obama’s health care plan is pretty important, but so far the economists can’t seem to figure out the implications. This is not to say I have any advance info on the Supreme Court decision. They might say the Act is fine as it is, they might say they will eliminate the mandate but leave the rest unchanged, they might throw out the whole thing.  If they vote against Obamacare it will be seen as a highly partisan act. What better way to show the Court’s impartiality than to affirm the constitutionality of legislation that may be unpopular? That might be a stretch; I think I’ll stick with the idea that we’ll have to wait till tomorrow.The only safe bet is that there will be unintended consequences. For example, what if the Supremes strike down the mandate portion but leave the rest intact? The Obama administration put a mandate in the Affordable Care Act because the law requires insurers to charge the same premium regardless of health status. Without a mandate, it would …

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