Financial Review

Pick Your Poison

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 350 = 17,596 SPX – 43 = 2057 NAS – 122 = 4958 10 YR YLD – .15 = 2.33% OIL – 1.30 = 58.33 GOLD + 5.90 = 1181.10 SILV + .01 = 15.86   Late Friday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a July 5 referendum on whether to accept the latest offer from Greece’s creditors. That meant that Greece would not pay $1.8 billion to the Troika due tomorrow. The European Central Bank responded by halting emergency lending to Greek banks.  With emergency aid to the country frozen, Athens has imposed capital controls to halt bank runs and confirmed that the country’s banks would remain shut for six working days; Greek banks are closed and the Greek stock market is closed, possibly until the July 5 referendum. ATM withdrawals are being capped at €60-euro-per-day.   We’ve been watching the problems in Greece for a long time. A few years ago, we knew Greece had a debt problem; that was back when they were lumped together with Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. They were called the PIIGS. The Troika of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Monetary Union, decided to crack down on the PIIGS; prescribing a big dose of austerity; the cure has been debilitating. Spain is dealing with 22% unemployment, Italy with 12.4% joblessness, Portugal at 13% (with …

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Financial Review

Dignity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56= 17,946 SPX – 0.82 = 2101 NAS – 31 = 5080 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.48% OIL – .07 = 59.63 GOLD + 1.30 = 1175.20 SILV – .09 = 15.85   For the week, both the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent while the Nasdaq fell 0.7 percent. Nike rose 4.3 percent to $109.71 and was the biggest boost to the Dow after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, lifted as it sold more high-margin shoes and apparel at higher prices.   Micron Technology sank 18 percent to $19.66 a day after forecasting a further decline in prices of chips used in personal computers. It also gave a revenue outlook for the current quarter that was well below market estimates. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) fell 2.4 percent.   The Supreme Court has ruled that same sex couples have a constitutional right to marry nationwide. Voting 5-4, the justices said states lack any legitimate reason to deprive gay couples of the freedom to marry. The ruling in support of marriage equality was widely expected, given the Supreme Court’s previous ruling on the issue. In June 2014, the Supreme Court overturned the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, opening up federal benefits to same-sex married couples. It heard two cases: Hollingsworth v. Perry, the successful challenge to California’s Proposition 8 measure, a 2008 ballot initiative that banned …

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Financial Review

Sorry McFly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 178 = 17,966 SPX – 15 = 2108 NAS – 37 = 5122 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.37% OIL – .74 = 60.27 GOLD – 3.00 = 1179.00 SILV + .04 = 15.98   The American economy shrank in the first quarter by a smaller amount than previously reported. Gross domestic product declined by 0.2% annual rate from January to March. Previously the Commerce Department had estimated a seasonally adjusted 0.7% drop. This is the third and final revision to first quarter GDP; so this final estimate, while still negative, isn’t as bad as we thought.  Household spending was revised up to 2.1% from 1.8%. Consumers spent more at restaurants and on transportation.  Private sector investment also rose a bit more, up 2.4% vs. a prior 0.7% estimate; and digging deeper, most of the move in private investment came from residential investment – up 6.5% in the final reading. Now this indicates signs of life in the housing market, but we still aren’t seeing enough in the way of business investment. Companies seem to have piles of cash and all they do is buy back their own stock.   Inflation as measured by the PCE price index fell at a 2% annual rate. The core rate that excludes food and energy was up 0.8% in the same span, well below the Federal Reserve’s preferred rate of …

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Financial Review

A Spidey Monday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 103 = 18,119 SPX + 12 = 2122 NAS + 36 = 5153 10 YR YLD + 9 = 2.36% OIL + .07 = 59.68 GOLD – 14.40 = 1186.90 SILV + .09 = 16.27   The Nasdaq Composite set a new closing and intraday record, topping the highs set on Thursday. The Russell 2000 gained 7 to close at 1292, a record high. The S&P 500 is a stone’s throw from record highs at 2130. Eurozone leaders are held an emergency summit today to “urgently discuss the situation of Greece at the highest political level.” The summit comes just eight days before Athens needs to make a crucial €1.6-billion-euro payment to the IMF. Over the weekend, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras submitted a new reforms package to foreign creditors, signaling eleventh-hour concessions to avoid a possible default. The Greek government said its proposals included steps to eliminate early retirement options, hike the sales tax, increase tax surcharges that middle- and high-income earners pay and to introduce a levy on companies with annual net income of more than about $570,000.   Eurozone finance ministers welcomed the Greek proposals for a cash-for-reform deal but said they required detailed study and it would take several days to determine whether they can lead to an agreement to avert a default. The ministers agreed to reconvene later this week. And even if there is …

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Financial Review

Reg A On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 101 = 18,014 SPX – 11 = 2109 NAS – 15 = 5117 10 YR YLD – 08 = 2.27% OIL – .98 = 59.47 GOLD – 1.70 = 1201.30 SILV – .07 = 16.18   For the week, the Dow was up about 0.9% and the S&P 500 gained 1%. The Nasdaq jumped 1.4% as it hit new all-time highs yesterday.   Eurozone leaders will try to find a bailout deal for Greece at an emergency summit Monday.  News reports said a European Central Bank official warned Eurozone finance ministers that the Greek banks might not be able to open come Monday. The big risk now is that a report about the fear of a bank run will serve to spur a bank run. Greeks pulled more than €1-billion euro out of their banks today. European Central Bank policymakers have agreed to supply extra emergency cash to avert a bank run.   The Associated Press reports Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has traveled to Russia, likely looking for loans. Russia and Greece signed a deal today to build an extension of a prospective gas pipeline that would carry Russian gas to Europe through Turkey. Russia promised Greece hundreds of millions of dollars in transit payments yearly if it agreed to build the pipeline. Construction of the pipeline is expected to start next year and be completed in …

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Financial Review

Sooner Rather Than Later

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 180 = 18,115 SPX + 20 = 2121 NAS + 68 = 5132 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.35% OIL + .53 = 60.45 GOLD + 16.90 = 1203.00 SILV + .04 = 16.26   Three straight days of gains on Wall Street.  The Nasdaq finished up 68 points, or 1.3%, to 5132.95 and hit a new intraday record high of 5143.32. That tops its previous all-time intraday high of 5132.52, set back in March 10, 2000. The Nasdaq’s previous closing high of 5,106.59 was notched much more recently, on May 27. The rally was broad-based as all 10 S&P sectors rose with health care leading the way and all 30 stocks of the Dow posted gains.   We start with economic data. The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, almost entirely because of a surge in gasoline prices ahead of the summer driving season. Gas prices shot up 10.4% to mark the largest gain in six years. The overall cost of food, meanwhile, was unchanged for the second month in a row. Stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core consumer prices rose a much milder 0.1% in May. The cost of housing, airline tickets and medical care all rose while clothing prices declined.   The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.7% in May for the second month in …

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Financial Review

Countdown to Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 31 = 17,935 SPX + 4 = 2100 NAS + 9 = 5064 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .22 = 59.75 GOLD + 3.60 = 1186.10 SILV + 11 = 16.22   The Fed has wrapped up its June FOMC meeting. No surprises. The economy is getting better, so they say. While the Fed says they have made “considerable progress” toward its goal of maximum employment, “the committee wants to see evidence of some further progress.” They are not hiking rates right now; they will probably hike rates in September, but don’t worry about the exact date because it will be so small and gradual you will hardly notice. That’s the quick version from the Fed.   Further wage and job gains could give Fed officials confidence that inflation, which has lingered below their 2 percent goal for three years, is likely to move higher. Growth is poised to pick up as consumers start spending a windfall from lower gasoline prices, even though that hasn’t happened yet. The economy is likely to expand at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter after shrinking 0.7 percent in the previous three months. Officials now expect the economy to grow this year between 1.8 percent and 2 percent. Just a few months ago, in March, they had predicted growth of 2.3 percent to 2.7 …

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Financial Review

Place Your Bets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 113 = 17,904 SPX + 11 = 2096 NAS + 25 = 5055 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.32% OIL + .50 = 60.02 GOLD – 4.70 = 1182.50 SILV – .06 = 16.11   The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee is meeting to determine monetary policy. Tomorrow they will issue a statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference. Nobody expects the Fed to change policy tomorrow but they will probably signal that they are looking to raise interest rates at the FOMC’s September meeting, with a few qualifiers: if the labor market continues to improve, if mild inflation does not turn into deflation, if global markets don’t melt down, if the dollar remains well behaved. And then, over the next few weeks, the policymakers will talk about how the rate hike will be small and measured.   Of course we have to wait to hear from the Fed but the markets have placed their bets. Global investors have been moving out of equities and into cash. Cash levels rise to 4.9 percent of portfolios, up from 4.5 percent in May; the proportion of investors’ overweight equities falls to net 38 percent from 47 percent. The proportion of investors expecting to underweight global emerging markets surges to a net 21 percent from net 6 percent in May. The U.S. dollar is the …

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Financial Review

Wisdom of Solomon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 107 = 17,791 SPX – 9 = 2084 NAS – 21 = 5029 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.36% OIL – .44 = 59.52 GOLD + 4.90 = 1187.20 SILV + .12 = 16.17   Debt discussions between Greece and its European creditors collapsed last night; talks broke down after just 45 minutes. It is believed that Greece has until the eurogroup meeting on Thursday to agree on a deal or the risk of default grows enormously. It takes time for any deal to pass through parliaments and therefore any deal beyond 18 June meeting may delay payments being made to Greece to beyond the end of the month.   The other key event this week is the Fed FOMC meeting and while few people now anticipate a rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting, there could be hints that it will come in September which could spark further volatility in the markets. Despite a slow start to the year, the data is improving and we’re now seeing rising wages and spending which is necessary if inflation is going to reach the Fed’s target within the forecasting period. This month’s decision will also be accompanied by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen; if nothing else, that means Yellen has a good opportunity to float some trial balloons.   The reality is that growth has been tepid despite unprecedented …

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Financial Review

Underwater

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 140 = 17,898 SPX – 14 = 2094 NAS – 31 = 5051 10 YR YLD +. 01 = 2.39% OIL – .74 = 60.03 GOLD – .70 = 1182.30 SILV – .07 = 16.06   The Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal hit a major roadblock today. The House rejected a key part of a package to fast-track the trade deal. The House voted today on two measures, both of which had to pass in order to send the legislation, which was already approved by the Senate, to the president. A bill to give the president fast-track authority to negotiate future trade deals was approved by a 219-211 vote. But another measure regarding funds to retrain workers failed, 126 to 302. Because the Senate had approved both measures, the failure of the retraining program prevented the package from advancing. The measure would give the Obama administration the ability to wrap up negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade deal years in the making, and present a final agreement to Congress for expedited consideration and an up-or-down vote with no amendments.   In one of the more unusual coalitions of the Obama administration, the trade agenda found strong support with Republicans, while Democrats ended up blocking the measure. Democrats had repeatedly asked for the administration to make the trade deals public before seeking the fast-track power. Democrats also complained …

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