Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS[powerpress Financial Review DOW + 19 = 17,573 SPX + 0.71 = 2031 NAS – 5 = 4632 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL + .60 = 78.51 GOLD + 36.50 = 1178.80 SILV + .32 = 15.85 The economy added 214,000 net new jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.8%. The 5.8 percent official unemployment rate is the lowest since the summer of 2008. The August report was revised higher to 203,000 and the September report was revised higher to 256,000; for a net increase of 31,000 jobs added from revisions. Employment is now up 2.64 million year-over-year, and up 2.3 million year to date. So far in 2014 the US has gained an average of 229,000 jobs a month, the fastest pace since 1999. October was the ninth consecutive month of 200,000 or more jobs gained, and that hasn’t happened since 1994. Total employment is up 10 million from the employment recession low and up 1.3 million from the previous peak; although it should be noted that full-time employment has not returned to the previous peak, while part-time employment is quite a bit higher than the peak. Private employment is up 10.6 million from the employment recession low. This latest report represents 56 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, which represents the longest streak in US history, but it isn’t the strongest streak of job growth. …

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Friday, February 07, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday By Sinclair Noe DOW + 165 = 15,794SPX + 23 = 1797NAS + 68 = 412510 YR YLD – .03 = 2.67%OIL + 2.21 = 100.05GOLD + 9.30 = 1268.10 SILV + .07 = 20.12 The best 2 days in a row for stocks in almost 4 months. For the week the Dow was up 97 points, and the S&P 500 was up 15 points on the week. The VIX, the volatility index slipped back down to 15, indicating a general happy go lucky outlook for stocks, with just the slightest hint that the past couple of days were part of a short squeeze; especially considering the lousy nature of the unemployment report. This is Jobs Report Friday and I tend to get a bit wonkish with the numbers but I think it is important economic data, so here goes. The Labor Department reported the economy added 113,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.6%. The number of jobs added fell short of expectations; analysts had projected job growth of around 185,000. While weather was believed to have weighed on hiring in December, it did not appear to be a major factor last month. There were strong gains in the weather-sensitive construction sector, and while a survey of households found 262,000 Americans were unable to work due to the weather, the department said that was in line with historical trends. This comes on the heels of an even weaker December jobs report. Today’s …

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Friday, October, 5, 2012 – Slow, Steady, Weak, Uncooked Growth in Jobs Report

Slow, Steady, Weak, Uncooked Growth in Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 13,610SPX -0.47 = 1460NAS – 13 = 3136 10 YR YLD +.07 = 1.73%OIL – 1.79 = 89.92GOLD – 9.00 = 1782.30 SILV – .46 = 34.61PLAT – 13.00 = 1710.00 The first Friday of each month brings the jobs report and it is always important economic data. This is the first Friday in October, in an election year; so, it is really big news. We’ve discussed at great length that the jobs report is imperfect; even after revisions, the report is imperfect. Still, the report provides a manner of comparison, and it is the best we have. It provides an apples to apples comparison. The economy added 114,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% from 8.1% The unemployment rate is the lowest since 2009, and the first time the rate has dropped under 8% during the Obama administration. The private sector has now added jobs for 31 consecutive months. Still, 114,000 new jobs would have to be considered weak growth. The best guesses are that the economy would have to generate at least 250,000 jobs each month for several years to reduce unemployment to around 6%. So, the first question is why did the unemployment rate drop when the number of new jobs was only showing weak growth? The Labor Department revised employment figures for August and July to show somewhat faster job growth in late summer, mostly because of government …

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