Financial Review

In Need of Pie

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-21-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:10 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks stumble into holiday. Economic data dump: existing home sales, housing starts tick up, consumer sentiment falls, durable goods orders sink, LEI ticks up. Oil bounces. Wrapping up USMCA. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-21-2018

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Financial Review

Tax Day Maintenance

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-17-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks rally, back in the green for 2018. Earnings lead the way. Netflix boffo. UnitedHealth lead insurers. Goldman beats but falls. Starbucks will undergo training. Housing starts jump. Tax cut bill widely disliked. IRS website breaks on Tax Day. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-17-2018

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Financial Review

What Will Happen Next

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-16-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:45 — 7.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Indictments…. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-16-2018

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Financial Review

M&A Media Mayhem

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P down for week. Nas up. Wrapping up a good earnings season. Oct. housing starts jump. FCC rolls back media ownership rules; M&A media mayhem ensues. A knife in net neutrality. Tesla’s Semi. Banks behaving badly. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2017

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Financial Review

No Moral Equivalency

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump’s business councils collapse. CEOs quit en masse. GOP denounces Trump. Fed minutes show concern for no inflation. Housing starts down. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2017

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Financial Review

A Tale of Two Markets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-16-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Record high for Nasdaq. Markets look past White House dysfunction. Tech and everything else. China is a worry. Housing starts tick down. Industrial production picks up. Ford – job cuts are number one. Home Depot beats on earnings but the rest of retail sucks. Cyber-attack blame game. Pirates of the box office.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-16-2017

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Financial Review

T Minus One

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..ECB Day – no change. Day One tomorrow – lots of change. Jobless claims at 40 year low. Arizona unemployment rate 5%. Dec. housing starts jump. South Korea’s JY Lee not arrested. Brazil Supreme Court Justice dies in plane crash. Credit Suisse pays $5.28 billion for complete garbage. The strange tale of EpiPen and bizarre drug pricing. McCartney sues for his music.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-19-2017

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Financial Review

Tomorrow, Tomorrow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-20-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSWaiting on the Fed and the BOJ. 3Q slows. Housing starts down. Mr. Stumpf goes to Washington. PM May goes to Wall Street. Bitcoin is money – who knew? Bayer tries to hide Monsanto name. Did I forget to tell you to buy Tobira yesterday? Mylan’s EpiPen move faces Medicare fraud investigation. Rules for Robo-cars. Bundling for mobile phone payments. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-20-2016

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Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session …

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Financial Review

The Rent is Too High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSAnother record high close for the Dow. Housing rebounds but the rent is too high. We spend more on drugs than groceries. IMF cuts forecast for global growth. Offshore oil (not what you think). Earnings reports from: Wells Fargo, Goldman, IBM, Microsoft, and more. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2016

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Financial Review

Keep Calm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSBrexit paused. Bullard goes dovish. Housing starts dip. Amazon automates.  Local Motors prints a bus and it drives away by itself. NASA flies an electric plane. The robot uprising gets off to a slow start. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-17-2016

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Financial Review

Illusion of Growth

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSInflation up, housing starts rebound, 1Q share buybacks at a new high, IMF eases on Greece, robot truckers, and Supremes punt. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-17-2016

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Financial Review

When Doves Fly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFOMC Day and the Fed turns dovish.

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Financial Review

Sneaking Through the Backdoor

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-17-2016   DOW + 257 = 16,453 SPX + 31 = 1926 NAS + 98 = 4534 10 Y + .04 = 1.82% OIL + 2.35 = 31.39 GOLD + 8.10 = 1209.40   Three in a row; three up days, and good moves at that. If you believe the old adage that every stock market advance is short covering, you have some evidence to back your position. The most shorted stocks among Russell 3000 members gained 6.5% over just two trading days, Friday and Tuesday, while the least shorted issues trailed the Russell’s 4.6% advance over the same period. And while it looks like last Thursday’s lows provided some support in the short-term, it is too soon to see if that support will hold. Anyone who is calling a bottom in the market is just making stuff up. I don’t know, you don’t know. What we know is the markets have been all over the map in the past 2 months, flitting from one crisis to the next. The good news is that nothing has blown up yet. The bad news is that everything is volatile.   Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Venezuela announced an agreement Tuesday to freeze oil production in an effort to ease the oil glut. On Wednesday, Iran said it wouldn’t join the effort, as its production just came back online following years of …

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Financial Review

Days of Wine and Neurosis

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-20-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-20-2016 DOW – 249 = 15,766 SPX – 22 = 1859 NAS – 5 = 4471 10 Y – .05 = 1.98% OIL – 1.91 = 26.55 GOLD + 13.70 = 1102.20   I remember a time, long ago and far away, where the stock market soared to record highs and we had celebrations and enjoyed milk and cookies. Today there are no celebrations, and the reward for merely surviving is more like wine and valium, or maybe just a Pepto Bismol smoothie.   Global markets were in full retreat as a relentless slide in oil prices and a weaker world growth outlook from the IMF dealt another blow to investor appetite. Hong Kong shares tumbled to their lowest levels since the depths of the global financial crisis, Japan’s Nikkei entered a bear market and equities everywhere else are deep in the red.   Investors have been looking for safe havens. Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell below 2.00%, down 29 basis points since the New Year began.   Here’s a quick rundown of global markets: China’s Shanghai Composite down 1%, The Hang Seng in Hong Kong down 4%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 3.7%; in Europe the FTSE 100 down 2.5%, The CAC in France down 2.5%, The Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.3%.   Wall Street looked more like Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride; the Dow Industrials dropped to 15,450, …

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Financial Review

An Inexplicable Force

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for  10-20-2015 DOW – 13 = 17,217 SPX – 2 = 2030 NAS – 24 = 4880 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.07% OIL – .34 =45.56 GOLD + 5.20 = 1176.80 SILV + .07 = 16.00 Housing starts rose in September as builders ramped up construction of apartments. Construction of new homes increased 6.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.21 million units in September. After two months of declines, the gain in September brings starts back to just below June’s level, which was an eight-year high. In September, starts for single-family homes, which accounts for the largest share of the market, rose 0.3% to a 740,000 unit pace.   Earnings reports will likely be a big driver for stocks this week. IBM shares dropped 5.5% after announcing revenues that missed even the most pessimistic expectations and issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for the year.   Verizon posted better than expected earnings and revenue, in large part due to the release of the new Apple iPhone 6S and 6S Plus in September. The company net added 1.3 million wireless retail postpaid subscribers in the quarter compared with 1.1 million in the second quarter. Net income rose to just over $4 billion, or 99 cents per share on revenue of just over $33 billion.   United Technologies reported a drop in third-quarter profit that still beat analyst expectations, and its chief executive said …

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Financial Review

A Slightly Older Mindset

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-18-2015.   DOW – 33 = 17,511 SPX – 5 = 2096 NAS – 32 = 5059 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL + .51 = 42.39 GOLD + .10 = 1118.50 SILV – .45 = 14.97   When Chinese markets catch pneumonia, US markets sneeze. That seems to be the trend lately. And once again, Chinese markets were under the weather as the People’s Bank of China took fresh steps to offset capital outflows prompted by its weakened currency. China’s central bank placed $18 billion worth of seven-day reverse repos into the money market during the session – the largest single day injection in almost 19 months. The latest rout raises fresh concerns that the Chinese economy is in dire need of stimulus. Shanghai -6.1%; Shenzhen -6.6%.   Across the Atlantic, European stocks didn’t perform well either. The German DAX dropped 0.2% and the French CAC fell 0.3%. The devaluation in China probably does not have the dire repercussions some have suggested, but it does fit within the broader narrative of a slowing global economy, with less support from emerging markets. And that, in turn, would indicate rising market volatility. At its peak last week, the VIX Index, which measures volatility of the S&P 500 Index, was up 50% from the previous week’s low. There are bigger moves beneath the surface. During the recent earnings season, more than 5% of …

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Financial Review

Place Your Bets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 113 = 17,904 SPX + 11 = 2096 NAS + 25 = 5055 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.32% OIL + .50 = 60.02 GOLD – 4.70 = 1182.50 SILV – .06 = 16.11   The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee is meeting to determine monetary policy. Tomorrow they will issue a statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference. Nobody expects the Fed to change policy tomorrow but they will probably signal that they are looking to raise interest rates at the FOMC’s September meeting, with a few qualifiers: if the labor market continues to improve, if mild inflation does not turn into deflation, if global markets don’t melt down, if the dollar remains well behaved. And then, over the next few weeks, the policymakers will talk about how the rate hike will be small and measured.   Of course we have to wait to hear from the Fed but the markets have placed their bets. Global investors have been moving out of equities and into cash. Cash levels rise to 4.9 percent of portfolios, up from 4.5 percent in May; the proportion of investors’ overweight equities falls to net 38 percent from 47 percent. The proportion of investors expecting to underweight global emerging markets surges to a net 21 percent from net 6 percent in May. The U.S. dollar is …

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Financial Review

Buckle Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 128 = 17,849 SPX – 6 = 2074 NAS + 7 = 4937 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.06% OIL – .42 = 43.46 GOLD – 5.70 = 1149.60 SILV – .10 = 15.63   The FOMC will wrap up its two-day meeting on interest rate policy tomorrow. The key question: will the Fed give a hint about raising interest rates? IMF Director Christine Lagarde says even if the Fed is able to manage expectations about an interest rate hike, “the likely volatility in financial markets could give rise to potential stability risks.”   ECB President Mario Draghi says, “Most indicators suggest a sustained (eurozone) recovery is taking hold.”  Draghi is urging governments to use the brighter outlook to advance reforms that would improve the region’s long-term growth prospects. Draghi claims, “Confidence among firms and consumers is rising. Growth forecasts have been revised upwards. And bank lending is improving on both the demand and supply sides.”   Draghi sounds a little overly optimistic. A couple of weeks of bond buying have not changed the overall economies of the Eurozone. Unemployment is still rampant in Spain and Italy and Greece and Portugal and several other countries. No doubt QE is increasing liquidity in the sovereign debt markets; the private banking system are surely pleased with cheap money policy, but it hasn’t changed the jobs picture, it hasn’t resolved …

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Financial Review

What? Me Worry?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-19-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 2 = 17,685 SPX – 3 = 2048 NAS – 26 = 4675 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.35% OIL – .51 = 74.61 GOLD – 14.40 = 1184.10 SILV – .06 = 16.23 The Federal Reserve’s most recent FOMC meeting was October 28th and 29th; after the meeting they issued a statement saying that QE3 was finished; they painted a fairly positive picture off the economy to confirm their decision. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her central bank colleagues last month focused on improvements in the labor market when they announced an end to their stimulative bond purchases. They also said that the risk of inflation remaining persistently below their goal had ebbed. Today, they released the minutes of the FOMC meeting and we get some better understanding of their thoughts. No bombshells, not much that was not expected. Policy makers last month “pointed to a somewhat weaker economic outlook and increased downside risks in Europe, China, and Japan,” in addition to a stronger dollar. There were concerns “that if foreign economic or financial conditions deteriorated further, US economic growth over the medium term might be slower than currently expected.” There was some debate over whether to acknowledge the weakening global economy; the general feeling was that the effects weaker growth overseas would “likely be quite limited,” and that any mention of global weakness could send an unwarranted …

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