Financial Review

Pick a Lane

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2015 DOW + 6 = 17,489 SPX – 2 = 2050 NAS + 1 = 4986 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.26% OIL – .95 = 40.79 GOLD – 12.30 = 1070.80 SILV – .06 = 14.29   Global equity markets moved higher today, following the rally yesterday on Wall Street and brushed off concerns related to Friday’s terror attacks in Paris. In their final communique from a summit in Turkey, the leaders of the world’s largest economies stuck to a goal of lifting their collective output by an extra 2% by 2018, even though growth remains uneven and weaker than expected globally. G20 leaders also endorsed plans to address Syria’s refugee crisis, taxation, climate change, cyber security and inequality.   France launched another set of airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria early Tuesday as the country steps up its response to last week’s deadly attacks. The bombings follow a second night of home searches in France and Belgium to catch those responsible and linked to the killings. President Francois Hollande is now looking to expand his powers under France’s state-of-emergency statute and has called on the U.S. and Russia to form a “big unified coalition” to destroy ISIS.   Meanwhile, Russian officials said they had found evidence that the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month was downed by a bomb, the first time …

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Financial Review

Thursday, June 26, 2014 – Buffers and Filibusters

Buffers and Filibusters by Sinclair Noe   DOW – 21 = 16,846 SPX – 2 = 1957 NAS – 0.71 = 4379 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.52% OIL – .80 = 105.70 GOLD  – .70 = 1317.90 SILV + .10 = 21.22   Yesterday, the Commerce Department downgraded the first quarter gross domestic product to a negative 2.9%, meaning the economy shrank by 2.9%. Today, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard says it’s likely an aberration; the weak report for the first quarter was likely distorted by inventories, weather, and by the challenges of accounting for health-care spending under the new law. Bullard says he isn’t worried, “the market’s right to shake this off. Looking forward over the next four quarter, most forecasters have 3% growth.”   Well, that’s good. No worries. Nothing to see hear, move along, move along.   It’s just that the fall was so nasty, it’s hard not to look and linger over the carnage. It really was ugly. And while we can blame it on the weather, that doesn’t seem right. We always have weather. Minneapolis is underwater today. Bad weather is a fairly constant aberration. We should be past the point of excuses; we are 5 years into a recovery; granted it has been a stealth recovery.   I wonder if Mr. Bullard is confusing the stock market with the economy. A down day in the bull market would just be a blip on the tape, but the stock market is …

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Financial Review

Thursday, May 29, 2014 – First Quarter GDP and Extreme Weather

First Quarter GDP and Extreme Weather by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 65 = 16,698 SPX + 10 = 1920 NAS + 22 = 4247 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.44% OIL + .79 = 103.51 GOLD – 2.70 = 1256.90 SILV + .02 = 19.14 The economy was worse than expected in the first quarter. The first estimate of first quarter gross domestic product showed 0.1% growth. Today, we got the second estimate and it showed 1.0% contraction. We figured the second estimate would show contraction but most estimates were calling for just 0.1% to 0.6% contraction. The newly revised estimate incorporates additional economic data released in recent weeks. Higher-than-expected imports and slower-than-expected inventory growth dragged the economy into negative territory.   US based corporations posted slightly lower, after tax, seasonally adjusted, first quarter profits of $1.88 trillion for the quarter, down from $1.905 trillion in the fourth quarter; but those numbers were not adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments; we know corporations are still holding bloated inventories. A big buildup in private inventories boosted economic growth in the third quarter of 2013, but left a hangover that weighed on growth in the first quarter of 2014. Inventories subtracted 1.62 percentage points from GDP growth, compared with an initial estimate of 0.57 percentage point subtracted from growth.   Business investment declined at a 1.6% pace, revised from an initially estimated decline at a 2.1% pace. Spending on structures fell at a 7.5% pace and spending on …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, April 15, 2014 – Yellen in the Lions’ Den

Yellen in the Lions’ Denby Sinclair Noe DOW + 89 = 16,262SPX + 12 = 1842NAS + 11 = 403410 YR YLD – .01 = 2.62%OIL – .22 = 103.83GOLD – 24.20 = 1303.40SILV – .41 = 19.66 Stocks were all over the place today. We started with triple digit gains for the Dow Industrials, dipped to triple digit losses, then back into positive territory for the close with the major indices closing just below their morning highs. This kind of volatility does not engender confidence; it does warrant caution. The utilities sector gained 1.3% and finished ahead of the other groups, extending its YTD gain to 11.8%; the biotech ETF added 1%, while the broader healthcare sector advanced 1.1%.Tech stocks have been beaten up quite a bit over the past couple of weeks. The Nasdaq 100 Tech Index (NDXT) is down 7% since April 1st. The Nasdaq Composite has exhibited weakness, but not to the point of meeting the definition of a correction; it would take a slide to 3,922 to mark a 10% fall from the March 5 closing high at 4,357; a 10% pullback from the March 6 intraday high of 4,371 would be achieved at 3,934. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, or CPI, increased 0.2% in March after posting a 0.1% increase in February. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core prices ticked up 0.2%.Prices rose 1.5% for the 12 months ending in March. That is up from February’s year-over-year reading of 1.1%. Core prices …

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Uncategorized

January, Thursday 12, 2012

DOW + 21 = 12471SPX + 3 = 1295NAS + 13 = 272410 YR YLD +.03 = 1.93%OIL –1.65 = 99.22GOLD + 5.60 = 1649.60SILV + .28 = 30.35PLAT + 2.00 = 1504.00 In 2011, the market value of U.S. stocks went nowhere from the first trading day, January 3, to the last trading day, December 30. And I mean absolutely nowhere. The S&P 500 started the year at 1,257.64 and ended the year at 1,257.60. While the market value of the S&P 500 was going absolutely nowhere, its valuation was plummeting. S&P 500 trailing 12-month earnings (through September 30, 2010) started last year at $79 a share and ended the year at $94.64 per share. That means earnings grew at nearly 20%, but prices went nowhere. In fact, prices have gone nowhere for the past 12 years. That’s not exactly true – we are pretty much where we were 12 years ago, but prices moved quite a bit in between. We get into overbought and oversold positions. The question is: where can we find opportunity? Standard & Poor’s classifies every individual stock into one of ten primary sectors. They then publish specific indexes for each sector (as well as dozens of sub-sectors within the ten primaries). The worst performing S&P sectors for 2011 Financials (-18.4%), Materials (–11.6%), and Industrials (-2.19%). The top performers included Utilities, consumer staples, and health care. Only 3 of the ten sectors were down but the S&P 500 is capitalization weighted; that means each stock …

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