Financial Review

Again and Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-21-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Walmart beats; Amazon counterpunches. Macy’s slips and sells RE. Home Depot beats and buys back. Verizon will buy Yahoo with a cut. Burger King buys Popeyes. Kraft won’t buy Unilever. Sprint-TMobile. International money transfers – there’s an app. Eurozone biz activity best in 6 years. HSBC tanks. BHP profit. China stops buying coal from North Korea. Waiting on the Fed. Oil prices move higher, as OPEC cuts production but US demand drops. Trump starts deportations. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-21-2017

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Financial Review

Mind the Gap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-18-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks trade in very narrow range. CPI at 2.1%; the rent’s too high. The Fed talks rate increase. Beige Book optimism. BIS says QE doesn’t help Main Street – duh. HSBC, Paris. JPMorgan targeted minorities and women – 2 suits. American Airlines launches Sub-Cattle Class. Essilor buys Luxottica. Target misses. Navient bad news for student loans. Bookies on the inaugural speech. 2016 the hottest year ever, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-18-20017

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Financial Review

Sleepwalking Higher

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks hit highs. More job openings. Beige remains modest. Fed still jawbones. Apple Event Day, whoopee. Hanjin dead to irons. Ackman’s big burrito. Apache’s big find. Mylan’s big price gouge bites back. HSBC violates parole. Goldman’s political games. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-07-2016

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Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSResale home prices continue to rebound. New home sales up. Consumer confidence flat. Fed FOMC deliberates. Earnings galore but the big one is Apple, and it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Fiat fudged sales numbers. VW has a plan. Amazon has drones in the UK. You could fly around the world without using a drop of oil. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-26-2016

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Financial Review

Number 9

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-20-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSDow record high again. Earnings beat diminished expectations. MS, INTC, AXP. VW investigated all the way to the top. Turkey purge. HSBC arrests. The long, strange, fraudulent trip of 1MDB. Bud deal approved. Aetna-Humana, not so much. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-20-2016

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Financial Review

That’s Her Story

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-10-2016   DOW – 99 = 15,914 SPX – 0.35 = 1851 NAS + 14 = 4283 10 Y – .02 = 1.70% OIL – .64 = 27.30 GOLD + 8.00 = 1197.80   Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivered her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in Washington today in her first major appearance since the Fed’s rate hike last December. In prepared testimony, Yellen said

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Financial Review

King v Burwell Plan B

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,764 SPX + 0.87 = 2080 NAS – 7 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.42% OIL + 1.81 = 59.95   Each month the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payrolls, usually that report comes out on the first Friday of the month; a few days later they release the JOLT survey, Job Openings and Labor Turnover from the prior month. Job openings at US workplaces rose to 5.3 million in April from 5.1 million in March. That’s the most job openings in 14 years, and those job openings were spread among industries, including health care, retailers and providers of professional services. Now, keep in mind that this is the Job Openings from April, and we just saw the May Jobs report, which showed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 5.4% in April to 5.5% in May; and the reason the unemployment rate was higher is because more people entered the labor pool. Most of the nearly 400,000 new job seekers were under the age of 25.   While the number of job openings soared, employers are still taking their time filling them. Total hiring in April fell to 5 million from 5.1 million. The disparity between more openings and flat hiring suggests employers are being picky about new hires. Many companies say they are having difficulty finding qualified workers. They may …

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

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Financial Review

What Happens When We Run Dry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 228 = 17,977 SPX + 27 = 2081 NAS + 57 = 4929 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.12 = 43.88 GOLD – 4.30 = 1155.30 SILV – .01 = 15.73   Halfway through March, the S&P 500 is almost exactly flat year to date after a January tumble and February recovery, as we head into a Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting later this week. Halfway through March a year ago, that was exactly the same situation: US stocks flat for the year directly ahead of the March Fed meeting, when the Fed’s intent to slowly tighten up policy was affirmed. It is widely expected that Fed policy setters will remove the word “patient” from their statement, opening the door for a rate increase in June.   The Fed has kept its benchmark lending rate near zero for more than six years, underpinning a strong rally in stocks. Wall Street loves to feed at the zero interest rate trough. Wall Street has a history of whining about tighter monetary policy; remember the “taper tantrum”, and so today’s gains feel like a sucker’s rally. Or the Fed could surprise us and they could very well remain patient. Crude fell for a fifth day, dropping to its lowest intraday price since March 2009. Crude oil closed $43.88 a barrel, closely following the IEA’s prediction on Friday …

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Financial Review

We’ll Know It When We See It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 332 = 17,662 SPX – 35 = 2044 NAS – 82 = 4859 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 1.71 = 48.29 GOLD – 5.40 = 1162.50 SILV – .11 = 15.72   Yesterday marked the 6 year anniversary of the bull market. Today is the 15th anniversary of the Nasdaq‘s all-time high. The Nasdaq has pulled in after briefly moving above the 5,000 level last week. The Nasdaq had been on a nice little run, so, for now support looks to be a long way away. Today the S&P 500 dropped below the 50 day moving average at 2061; that should have been an area of strong support.   Job openings in the United States rose 2.4% to 5 million in January and stood at a 14-year high. The Labor Department reports the number of people hired fell slightly to 5 million. So-called separations – layoffs, people fired, workers who quit – dipped to 4.82 million from 4.90 million.   The National Federation of Independent Business‘s small-business optimism index edged up to 98.0 in February, from 97.9 in January. Both readings are down from 100.4 in December. Although small-business owners remain upbeat, a growing percentage reports difficulty in finding workers with the right labor qualifications. By one measure, the skills shortage is the worst since 2006, but most business owners remain reluctant …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies. Enjoy While You Can.

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 15 = 18,224 SPX – 1 = 2113 NAS – 0.98 = 4967 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.97% OIL + 1.75 = 51.03 GOLD + 2.90 = 1205.20 SILV + .22 = 16.64   Another record high for the Dow Industrial Average. These are the days of milk and cookies.   Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen continued her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony today in front of the House Financial Services Committee. The prepared opening remarks were identical to the testimony yesterday in the Senate. The Q&A session became a bit testy today as Yellen was accused of political bias. Republicans questioned Yellen about an October speech on inequality, just before the midterm elections, as evidence she was leaning toward the Obama administration and Democrats. Methinks they doth protest too much. There were also calls for an audit of the Fed, historically a nonstarter with Federal Reserve Chairs. It made for generally poor political theater.   The important part of the testimony was fairly easy to find. Keep in mind the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. So the key statement from Yellen was when she said: “Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of …

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Financial Review

Gulliver’s Travels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 92 = 18,209 SPX + 5 = 2115 NAS + 7 = 4968 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.99% OIL – .29 = 49.16 GOLD – .50 = 1202.30 SILV – .01 = 16.41   The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hit record high closes. The Nasdaq rose for the tenth straight session, its longest streak since July 2009. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks closed at a record 1233.   Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified today before the Senate banking committee in her semi-annual report on monetary policy. Yellen said the Fed is preparing to consider interest rate hikes “on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” Yellen described how the Fed’s rate-setting policy committee will likely proceed in coming months: first by removing the word “patient” in describing its approach to rate hikes, then entering a phase in which rate hikes are possible at any meeting. That approach could open the door to an interest rate increase as early as June, but short-term rate futures contracts showed traders had shifted their expectations of an initial rate hike from September to October. And the yield on the ten year Treasury note slipped down below 2%. So, the markets players are placing their bets.   Yellen said she felt labor markets and other key economic indicators “have been increasing at a solid rate.” However, she said she still feels the …

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Financial Review

The Dog Ate the Greek Proposal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 18,116 SPX – 0.64 = 2109 NAS + 5 = 4960 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.06% OIL – 1.36 = 49.45 GOLD – 2.10 = 1202.80 SILV + .05 = 16.42   The S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent last week to finish at record highs, the third record high of the year. The Dow rose to its first record of the year and the Nasdaq Composite closed at its highest level since March 2000, closing in on 5000. The Russell 2000 Index advanced 0.7 percent, also ending at a record Friday. Much of the stock market action has followed news of a compromise with Greece. At last week’s meeting, Greece signed up to all the conditions of its current bailout package and to continued international oversight, provided the Greeks come up with a list of reforms. Easier said than done; any reforms have to be acceptable to the Troika (the IMF, the ECB, and the EU, and subject to approval by all EU members) and at the same time it will have to be acceptable to Greeks who voted against the austerity plans of the Troika. The plan was supposed to be presented today, but that didn’t happen. Now the Greeks say they will present the reforms tomorrow. Given that Monday night was treated as a hard deadline for getting the Greek proposals …

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Financial Review

Upside-Down World

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 110 = 17,972 SPX + 19 = 2088 NAS + 56 = 4857 10 YR YLD un 1.98% OIL + 2.28 = 51.12   A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to start February 15, which apparently means that Putin’s little green men still have 2 days to grab as much land as they can. The agreement follows a 17 hour, four-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in Minsk. The new deal revived a failed September ceasefire agreement, with commitments from each side to pull back heavy weapons, as well as greater autonomy for separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. IMF chief Christine Lagarde also announced today that Ukraine will receive about $40B in funding over the next four years.   Along with the new cease-fire agreement, that won’t actually end the fighting; there was a non-agreement agreement between Eurozone finance ministers to put off decisions on Greece’s bailout terms until next week. Greek officials were unable to reach a deal over its bailout program yesterday, but will return to Brussels on Monday to try to end the deadlock.   Meanwhile, Sweden’s central bank cut its main interest rate into negative territory and announced a bond-buying program this morning. Sweden now joins Denmark and Switzerland and the European Central Bank in negative rate land. So, now, if you want to make a deposit in Sweden, you …

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Financial Review

A Question for the New AG

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 139 = 17,868 SPX + 21 = 2068 NAS + 61 = 4787 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.99% OIL – 2.10 = 50.76 GOLD – 5.00 = 1234.70 SILV – .06 = 17.01 Small-business sentiment slipped in January on a decline in optimism over sales growth and business conditions, according to a gauge released Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.5 points to 97.9, with seven out of 10 components declining.   Good news if you are looking for a job. The Labor Department said job openings surged to 5.03 million in December, the highest level since January 2001, from 4.85 million in November. Hiring jumped to a seven-year high and the number of job seekers for every open position, a key measure of labor market slack, fell to 1.73 in December, the lowest since 2007. The bad news is that there are still about 9 million people looking for a job.   Wholesale inventories barely rose in December, up just 0.1%. Together with data last week showing a 0.3% fall in manufacturing inventories in December, today’s report suggests the boost to GDP growth from restocking in the fourth quarter was probably not as large as initially thought.   Halliburton is cutting as many as 6,500 jobs. The oil company, facing up to the reality of crude oil prices, …

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Financial Review

HSBC – Too Big To Jail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 95 = 17,729 SPX – 8 = 2046 NAS – 18 = 4726 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.95% OIL + .90 = 52.59 GOLD + 5.40 = 1239.70 SILV + .28 = 17.07 Let’s start with oil; OPEC lowered its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth this year by about 400,000 barrels a day, the biggest reduction since the forecast was introduced in August. The US led with a cut of 130,000 barrels a day while estimates for Colombia, Canada and Yemen were also trimmed. The group said it may boost global demand forecasts beyond this month’s slight increase amid rising U.S. gasoline use.   OPEC’s research department said: “The main factors for the lower growth prediction in 2015 are price expectations, a declining number of active rigs in North America, a decrease in drilling permits in the US and a reduction in the 2015 spending plans of international oil companies.”   The United Steelworkers strike continues with walkouts at two of BP’s refineries over the weekend. The strike now encompasses more than 5,000 workers at 11 refineries across the country, which account for about 13% of U.S. fuel-making capacity. Facility owners also hit by the strike include Shell, Tesoro, Marathon Petroleum and LyondellBasell.   Cheap gasoline prices have increased 13 cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, nationwide average; but not everybody is buying …

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Financial Review

Catch a Falling Star

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:20 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 2 = 17,612 SPX – 1 = 2038 NAS + 14 = 4675 10 YR YLD un = 2.36% OIL – 1.19 = 76.75 GOLD – 2.80 = 1161.10 SILV – .04 = 15.76 Stocks have been on a run lately, with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hitting record highs yesterday, and the Dow Transports closing at a new high today. Yesterday, the S&P 500 marked its 40th new closing high of the year, versus 45 in 2013. The last five-day streak of record highs was in May 2013, and the next longest was eight days in June 1997. The Dow also hit a record yesterday, marking 6 consecutive record highs, its longest since June. The S&P 500 has closed above its 5 day moving average for the 19th consecutive session, a streak that has only occurred seven times in the past 20 years. And today did not reverse the trend. Typically, after a rally like this you might expect a pullback; not necessarily a correction, but a pullback; a pause to catch your breath. And so, now would not look like a good time to buy, but you also haven’t seen a signal to sell, at least not yet. Meanwhile, the advance has been so straight and fast that it hasn’t left any support levels in its wake. You might look at S&P 2000 as a round …

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Financial Review

The Failure of the Holder Doctrine

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 264 = 16,945 SPX – 32 = 1965 NAS – 88 = 4466 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.51% OIL – .32 = 91.21 GOLD + 5.30 = 1222.90 SILV – .18 = 17.60 In economic news: For the week ending Sept. 20, seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment compensation were 293,000, up 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 281,000. For the comparable week of 2013, the figure was 316,000. Orders for durable goods dropped 18.2% in August; which sounds absolutely horrible until you put in in perspective; durable goods orders were up 22.5% in July. It sounds like the economists behind this report need to step away from the crack pipe, but the real reason for the volatility is airplane orders, which are for big expensive durable goods, and usually in big, expensive contracts. For example, Boeing took orders for 107 new planes in August, but that’s down from 324 orders in July. Stripping out the transportation sector, order rose 0.7%. Orders for core capital goods – a broader measure of business investment – climbed by 0.6% in August. Tomorrow the government will reveal the third of three regular estimates of growth in the period of April to June. The gain in GDP is likely to be raised to 4.7% from a prior estimate of 4.2%, mainly because fresh data show that consumers spent much more …

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Uncategorized

Friday, March 14, 2014 – The Circle of Life

The Circle of Life by Sinclair Noe DOW – 43 = 16,065SPX – 5 = 1841NAS – 15 = 424510 YR YLD – .01 = 2.64%OIL + .81 = 99.01 GOLD + 10.90 = 1383.00SILV + .29 = 21.56 In economic news, the early-March consumer sentiment index fell to 79.9. That’s down from a final February reading of 81.6 but the latest number is within the range of numbers posted since November. A separate report from the Labor Department shows the producer price index dropped o.1% last month. The PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level. Final demand for goods rose 0.4% in February. Final demand for services dropped 0.3%. Producer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs fell 0.2%. In the 12 months through February, producer prices increased 0.9%, the smallest one-year gain since May 2013. Inflation is not a concern. The economy is still too sluggish to generate inflation. There are two big news stories of the day: Flight 370 and Ukraine. We don’t know anything about either. A total absence of actual information about the missing Malaysian flight is not in any way hindering 24 hour news coverage of the story. Facts have given way to fantastic fantasizing about everything from terrorism to hidden island airstrips to alien abductions. The news networks have been gathering tons of erroneous and conflicting reports which they immediately pass to their viewers. They must think we’re all morons. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov wrapped up …

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Uncategorized

Friday, October 18, 2013 – Biscuits on the Dark Side of the Moon

Biscuits on the Dark Side of the Moon by Sinclair Noe DOW + 28 = 15,399SPX + 11 = 1744NAS + 51 = 391410 YR YLD un = 2.59%OIL + .28 = 101.15GOLD – 2.70 = 1318.40SILV + .07 = 22.06 There will be a lunar eclipse a little later this hour. In the West we won’t see it, but you can phone your friends in the East. Maybe it explains something. The S&P 500 index hit another all time record close. Tobias Levkovich is the chief US equity strategist for Citigroup, and he may have had the best analysis of post-deal state of the markets: “Kicking the proverbial can down the street does not address the long-term fiscal imbalances. The twin decisions of a taper timing push out and the discord in Washington being swept under the rug until January and February roll in could keep P/E multiples more compressed as equity risk premiums stay elevated. Investors typically do not like uncertainty and it is hard to determine how these recent almost non-decisions can be seen as reinvigorating confidence aside from some relief that an imminent likely disaster has been avoided. Nonetheless, one cannot respectably believe that things truly have turned for the better as opposed to averting the worst. The long-term growth of non-discretionary government spending can still prove to be an overwhelming liability and it has not been the primary focus for legislators.” Larry Summers will not be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and maybe that gives …

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