Financial Review

Reading List

Jan 22, 2019 A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks – IMF Blog. The global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. Record Numbers of Americans Say They Care About Global Warming, Poll Finds – New York Times. A spike in believers. For 20 Years, US Carbon Emissions Have Been Dropping. Last Year, They Spiked. – Mother Jones. Coincidence? ‘Compromise’ to End Shutdown Draws Protests Over Asylum Restrictions – New York Times. Don’t hold your breath for a fast fix. Supreme Court Doesn’t Act on Trump’s Appeal in ‘Dreamers’ Case – Court takes away negotiating tool. Here’s what really worries investors about China’s slowdown – A slowing down in China is not a collapse. The shutdown’s effect on the US economy, explained – Vox. The longer it lasts, the worse it gets. Los Angeles teachers’ union, school district reaches deal to end strike – Reuters Opposition leader pushes for parliament vote on new Brexit referendum – Reuters. Corbyn tries to grab control of Brexit. Careful what you wish for. The unusually large drop in home sales has real estate agents baffled – CNBC. Prices drop in the West. Can you catch a falling knife? MLK Offers a Lesson on Why We Should Be Worried About Amazon and the FBI – Rolling Stone. Unthinkable: 50 Moments That Define an Improbable Presidency – The Atlantic. The greatest hits and misses of the past 2 years.

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Financial Review

Tumbleweed Trade

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks drift, rates push higher. Mortgage tops 5%. IMF cuts growth forecasts because of trade wars. Ford to cut workers. Bribing farmers with E15. Google got gadgets. Ackman buys coffee. Michael goes to Florida. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2018

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Financial Review

To the Dogs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-16-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks muddle into earnings. IMF goes risk off. Powell to speak. Retail sales bounce. Netflix disappoints. BofA goes mobile. Amazon crashes, with dogs. Trump-Putin summit also a pretty spectacular crash. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-18-2018

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Financial Review

Blink – More Records.

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-22-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell hit new record highs. Shutdown is over for a few weeks. Penn gerrymandered. Rocky Mountain high in Vermont. M&A galore. Netflix nation. IMF forecast calls for solid growth with a chance of a market correction. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-22-2018

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Financial Review

Barbarians at the Gate With Toothpaste

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Dow record close. IMF won’t get fooled again. Tax reform version 3.0. EPA fights for whale oil. P&G proxy vote fails. Walmart battles Amazon, but profits before innovation. US & South Korea military hack. Deloitte hack is getting worse. NoCal’s worst wildfire. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-10-2017

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Financial Review

Irrational Spending

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Kicking off 3Q earnings season. IMF meets in DC. EPA to scrap Clean Power Plan. Waiting on Catlans. Google sold ads to Russian trolls. Weinstein out. Trump-Corker battle. California goes after drug prices. Vet ETF. Thaler’s crazy economics. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2017

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Financial Review

Delayed Not Dead

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-27-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trumpcare Senate vote delayed for lack of support. Fedspeak: Yellen says valuations rich, Fischer says P/E is high, Williams says stock market is running on fumes. IMF throws shade on Trump. Case Shiller – home prices pull back. Google gets EU’s biggest fine. Ransomware attack goes global. Brazil’s president criminally charged. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-27-2017

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Financial Review

Consuming Oxygen

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Comey firing offers minor distraction on Wall Street. IMF concerned about growing corporate debt, warns of swift repricing. Senate sticks with limits on methane emissions. Oil prices pop on lower inventories. Aetna exits ACA exchanges. Tesla launches Solar Roofs. Sears’ Lampert confirms he is clueless. Snap snapped. Whole Foods reshuffled. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-10-2017

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Financial Review

Double Hat Trick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..More records on Wall Street. Reckitt Benchkiser buys Mead Johnson. Blackstone buys Aon unit. Consumer sentiment dips. Oil rallies. Import prices rise. Trump hosts Japan’s Abe. Talks to China’s Xi. Wall will cost more. Greece is still a problem for the EU. Italy next? Germany banks gold. Fast brandy. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-10-2017

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Financial Review

Hat Trick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1A-02-09-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:08 — 6.9MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  …..Record close for Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. Trump has a “phenomenal” tax plan, it is really “big league.” Anthem Cigna deal is dead. Tillerson talks NAFTA to Canada. First executive order is now being expedited. Fiduciary rule not dead yet. Boeing’s big deal with Singapore Air. A letter for Xi. Greece in hot water; Italy got zero growth from being in Euro. 4Q earnings at 8.5%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-09-2017

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Financial Review

Table Scraps

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..ISM pops. ADP private jobs slip. Trade deficit inches up. Happy holiday sales forecast. IMF warns global banking system is too weak to recover. Paris Climate Accord ratified. Hurricane Matthew moves to US coast. ECB to taper. SCOTUS on insider trading. Fidelity’s conflict of interest. Sears sells the tools. Google goes for hardware with an AI assist. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-05-2016

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSRecord high close for Dow industrials and S&P 500. It’s raining yen. BOE plans rate cuts. Global stocks erase losses. IMF says Brexit impact is negligible on US. Inventories barely rose. Job openings lower. Small biz sentiment up again. EU-US Privacy Shield is big deal for big data. The Hague rules against China. Happy Prime Day. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-12-2016

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Financial Review

Unsavory Business Model

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe cost of corruption as a business model. How much does a signature cost Walmart? No advertising for payday lenders. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-11-2016

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Financial Review

No F8 but What You Make

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe start of earnings season, oil bounces, Fedspeak, and our F8 is to talk to bots.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-12-2016

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Financial Review

A Dodgy Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEarnings season starts with diminished expectations. UK PM David Cameron tries to justify dodgy deals. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo just pay more fines. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-11-2016

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Financial Review

If You Build It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-25-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-25-2016 DOW + 212 = 16,697 SPX + 21 = 1951 NAS + 39 = 4582 10 Y – .05 = 1.70% OIL + .93 = 33.08 GOLD + 4.30 = 1233.70 The Shanghai Composite in China dropped 6.4% today, extending its fall this year to 22%, as surging money-market rates signaled tighter liquidity and the offshore yuan weakened for a fifth day, while the country’s vice finance minister warned of pressure on exports. The plunge comes as world leaders gather for a G20 meeting in Shanghai, where current market turmoil and a global economic slowdown are expected to be key topics of discussion. European shares bounced after two days of falls, and sterling steadied after having been pounded all week by ‘Brexit’ fears.  The S&P 500 Index closed at a seven-week high, right at a major level of resistance, and just barely breaking above the 50 day moving average.   Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for urgent and bold action to combat the slowing world economy ahead of the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs. The IMF report says: “The G20 must plan now for coordinated demand support using available fiscal space to boost public investment.” The calls for an organized stimulus program followed warnings that China’s slowdown, financial market turbulence and the collapse in commodity prices were major headwinds that could derail a global …

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Financial Review

Tug of War

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-19-2016 DOW + 27 = 16,016 SPX + 1 = 1881 NAS – 11 = 4476 10 Y un 2.04% OIL – 1.13 = 28.29 GOLD – 1.30 = 1088.50   Just a reminder that last Friday saw the Dow drop 390 and the S&P too down 41, taking out the August lows of 1867 with an intra-day low of 1857. This morning Wall Street started the session with a bounce, but it didn’t hold; in the afternoon the major averages turned negative; the S&P went back down to test support at 1865. We are seeing an important level of support at 1857 to 1867 on the S&P. We told you on Friday that would need to see confirmation in the form of a close below 1867. It did not happen today. The Nasdaq Composite did close below the September low of 4487. The Dow Industrials are still above the August lows off 15,666. You don’t even want to look at charts of the Russell 2000 index or the Dow Transports; they are just ugly.   And then if you move away from Wall Street, the economy doesn’t look too bad: 70 consecutive months of job growth, the unemployment rate at 5%, GDP growth probably around 2% to 2.5% (not great but compared to the rest of the world it looks decent), oil prices falling, which should be …

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Financial Review

Dark Clouds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-12-2016   DOW + 117 = 16,516 SPX + 15 = 4658 NAS + 47 = 4685 10 Y – .06 = 2.10% OIL – .67 = 30.74 GOLD – 7.70  = 1087.50 The recent sell-off on Wall Street has some of the investment banks worried. For the past 7 years, JPMorgan Chase has seen every dip in the market as a buying opportunity. Now they are changing their tune and advising clients to sell any rally. A report from JPMorgan’s chief equity strategist cites several areas that are raising red flags, including: deteriorating technical indicators, expectations of anemic corporate earnings combined with the downward trajectory in U.S. manufacturing activity and a continued weakness in commodities, with oil dropping under $20 a barrel.   RBS, the Royal Bank of Scotland, says investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slip as low as $10 a barrel. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.   Goldman Sachs is warning that global stock markets may get …

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Financial Review

Tail of the Put

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-30-2015 DOW – 117 = 17,603 SPX – 15 =  2063 NAS – 42 = 5065 10 Y – .01 = 2.30% OIL – 1.07 = 36.80 GOLD – 7.90 = 1062.10 I was away on vacation on December 16th when the Fed raised interest rates, so I want to start today by going back and taking a look at what that really means and how it might affect the economy and the markets moving into the New Year. First, let’s be clear; the Fed did not raise rates on December 16th; the Fed raised their target for the fed funds rate, which is the rate at which banks lend to each other.  That’s a technicality. The Fed will buy and sell securities to increase the cost of borrowing money across the banking system. So money is becoming more expensive for all financial institutions. And the banks and financial institutions then pass along those cost to their customers in the form of higher interest rates. Short-term and long-term rates will move higher, at least in theory, but in reality, they don’t always move higher in lockstep.   And the dollar should get even stronger as rates move higher on Treasuries and corporate bonds. The reason is simple; if you are a foreign investor and you want to buy debt that offers a higher rate you first have to …

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Financial Review

A Busy Economic Calendar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-30-2015 DOW – 78 = 17,719 SPX – 9 = 2080 NAS – 18 = 5108 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.22% OIL + .02 = 41.73 GOLD + 7.90 = 1065.50 SILV – .01 = 14.16   For the month, the Dow was up 0.3%, S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%. The yuan rallied after the IMF said it will be added to its basket of reserve currencies. The euro capped its worst month versus the dollar since March. The yield gap between German and American bonds widened to the most in nine years, while emerging-market stocks posted their biggest monthly slump since August. This week’s economic calendar is packed. Today the National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales rose 0.2% in October and its index of contract signings is up 3.9% compared to a year ago. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said supply isn’t keeping up with strong demand. You know the old supply-demand formula, and tight supply points to higher prices.   Data due tomorrow includes US auto sales, ISM Manufacturing, PMI manufacturing, and construction spending. Look for auto sales to come in at an annualized rate of 18.0 million units, with a particular emphasis on VW sales following the emissions cheating scandal. The Markit PMI is expected to drop slightly from 54.1 in October to about 52.5 in November. The ISM manufacturing …

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