Financial Review

Underwater

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 140 = 17,898 SPX – 14 = 2094 NAS – 31 = 5051 10 YR YLD +. 01 = 2.39% OIL – .74 = 60.03 GOLD – .70 = 1182.30 SILV – .07 = 16.06   The Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal hit a major roadblock today. The House rejected a key part of a package to fast-track the trade deal. The House voted today on two measures, both of which had to pass in order to send the legislation, which was already approved by the Senate, to the president. A bill to give the president fast-track authority to negotiate future trade deals was approved by a 219-211 vote. But another measure regarding funds to retrain workers failed, 126 to 302. Because the Senate had approved both measures, the failure of the retraining program prevented the package from advancing. The measure would give the Obama administration the ability to wrap up negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade deal years in the making, and present a final agreement to Congress for expedited consideration and an up-or-down vote with no amendments.   In one of the more unusual coalitions of the Obama administration, the trade agenda found strong support with Republicans, while Democrats ended up blocking the measure. Democrats had repeatedly asked for the administration to make the trade deals public before seeking the fast-track power. Democrats also …

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Financial Review

Tomorrow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 17,905 SPX – 18 = 2095 NAS – 40 = 5059 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL – 1.66 = 57.98 GOLD – 8.60 = 1177.40 SILV – .40 = 16.18   The sun will come out tomorrow, beyond that we don’t have much certainty. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the markets. Greece is scheduled to make a debt payment to the IMF; that will not happen. OPEC meets tomorrow in Vienna; they are expected to leave the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day unchanged. And in the US, we have a Jobs Report Friday; the Labor Department is expected to report the economy added about 225,000 new jobs in May and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.4%. Any one of these three events could result in major market moves. So buckle your seat belts.   This morning the Labor Department reported the number of people seeking unemployment benefits at the end of May remained near a 15-year low. Some 276,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims in the period running from May 24 to May 30, a week that included the Memorial Day holiday. That was down 8,000 from the prior week.   In addition to the headline numbers in the Jobs Report, we will be looking to see if wages are actually …

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Financial Review

The Deadline Is Near

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 36 = 18,126 SPX – 2 = 2120 NAS – 8 = 5097 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.14% OIL + .46 = 57.97 GOLD – .02 = 1188.20 SILV + .01 = 16.76   The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales increased in April for the fourth consecutive month to reach the highest level in nine years, signaling that upcoming deals could pick up. The pending home sales index climbed 3.4 percent to 112.4 last month. The index now is at its highest since May 2006.

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 18,298.99 (record) SPX + 6 = 2129.20 (record) NAS + 30 =  5078 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.23% OIL – .14 = 59.55 GOLD + 2.30 = 1226.80 SILV + .19 = 17.78   Record high close for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high close we mention it. Whenever the Dow hits a record high close we have a celebration with milk and cookies. Our reasoning is that we never know if or when we will see another record high close. Sure, the Dow could hit another record high tomorrow, or it might falter and it could be 5 years or ten years until we see a record, or maybe never. So today we celebrate.   The rationale behind these record highs is suspect. Last week’s economic news was disappointing, and the bad news moved the markets higher, mainly on the idea that the Fed will be slower to raise rates. Retail sales were weak, industrial production was flat and capacity utilization decreased.  Consumers aren’t spending what’s left over after lower oil prices, instead, they are increasing personal savings. A new survey from Princeton Research shows 19% saved the difference from the gas pump, 4% invested, and only 14% took the savings from lower gas prices and went out and spent it …

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Financial Review

Hot Fun in the Summertime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,105 SPX – 10 = 2105 NAS – 9 = 4993 10 YR YLD + .12 = 2.27 OIL – .10 = 59.29 GOLD – 4.00 = 1184.50 SILV – .13 = 16.38   The S&P 500 Index went up to 2117.69, it sat there for a couple of seconds then fell; the reason this is important, or not, is because 2117.69 is the record high from April 24; also, last Friday, the S&P hit 2117.66 for an intraday high. It has been at or near this level several times in the past 3 months, but it can’t break through. Meanwhile, about $100 million in options on the VIX changed hands at 12:16:04 this afternoon; that’s a little more than a half day’s normal volume in a split second. The VIX is the Volatility Index. Just over 1 million contracts were traded. The trades were spread among four contracts that pay off at different dates and prices, say if the VIX rises to 17 by June or 23 by July. We don’t know who made the trade, but somebody is betting things will get hot this summer.   On Friday, the Jobs Report showed the economy added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%. We’ll get more information on the labor market tomorrow with the JOLT survey, which takes a look at job …

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Financial Review

Red Lines

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 142 = 17,928 SPX – 25 = 2089 NAS – 77 = 4939 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.18% OIL + 1.81 = 60.74 GOLD + 5.20 = 1194.00 SILV + .14 = 16.61   The Commerce Department said the trade deficit jumped 43.1 percent to $51 billion in March, its highest level in nearly 6-1/2 years, as imports rebounded strongly after being held down by a labor dispute at West Coast ports. The now-settled labor dispute at the West Coast ports significantly slowed imports and exports at the start of the year. The higher deficit will subtract from first quarter GDP estimates.   The pace of growth in the US services sector rose to a five-month high in April, lifted by a surge in business activity that offset a sharp decline in exports. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.8 last month from 56.5 in March. The April reading was the highest since November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. Strengthening consumer spending after a frigid winter on the back of gains in employment and still-low gasoline prices will propel services, which account for almost 90 percent of the economy as tracked by ISM. The ISM services report showed the employment gauge rose to 56.7, the strongest since October; that would seem to bode well for the Friday Jobs …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 279 = 17,826 SPX – 23 = 2081 NAS – 75 = 4931 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.85% OIL – .52 = 56.19 Even though oil prices were down slightly today, oil posted a 12% gain for the past week.   The economy continues to expand and consumers are feeling better. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.9 in April, up from 93 in March. Separately, The Conference Board said leading indicators rose 0.2% in March; the leading economic index has been slowing over recent months but it still points to moderate expansion in economic activity.   Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March. Gasoline prices rose 3.9%, which was the biggest jump since February 2013; still, gas prices are about 33% below year-ago levels.  The core-CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, also rose 0.2% due to higher cost of housing and used cars. The cost of clothes, housing, cars, and medical care increased, while food and airfare decreased. Core prices have risen 1.8% in the past year. While the “all-items index” (which includes things like food and energy) declined 0.1% over the last 12 months. Higher inflation would indicate a stronger dollar because it could reinforce the view that the Fed might hike interest rates sooner rather than later.   The Labor Department reports real average hourly earnings for all employees …

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Financial Review

To Be Fair

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 6 = 18,105 SPX – 1 = 2104 NAS – 3 = 5007 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.88% OIL + 12 = 56.51 GOLD – 3.70 = 1198.90 SILV – .04 – 16.37   Yesterday the ECB pledged to fulfill its €1 trillion-euro bond-buying program; today Eurozone government borrowing costs slid to new lows. Germany’s 10-year yield fell almost a basis point to 0.087% in early trade, while yields on all German government debt out to January 2024 were negative. Other notable levels include France’s 30-year yield, which fell below 1%, and the yield on two-year Portuguese bonds, which is on its way below zero.   The price of Greece’s three-year notes dropped the most since February and Greek corporate bonds also slumped. Credit-default swaps suggested there was a 79 percent chance of the country being unable to repay its debt in five years. Greece’s three-year yield is at a multiyear high, up 359 basis points at 27.7%. Expectations are low that Greece can reach a deal with its creditors at next week’s Eurogroup meeting. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Greece’s credit rating to CCC+ with a negative outlook, citing a substantial risk of a default due to the country’s drawn out negotiations with its creditors. Greece has been pushed a step closer to default and potential exit from the euro after one of its main lenders, the International Monetary …

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Financial Review

Rocket Science

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 59 = 18,036 SPX + 3 = 2095 NAS – 10 = 4977 10 YR YLD – .04 = 1.90% OIL + 1.38 = 53.29 GOLD – 6.10 = 1192.90 SILV – .13 = 16.23 For the past 3 months, retail sales have been down. There was some speculation that the harsh winter weather was to blame for declining sales; and that appears to be true. Retail sales rose in March for the first time since late last year as consumers stepped up purchases of automobiles and other goods. Retail sales increased 0.9 percent in March. That was the largest gain since March last year and snapped three straight months of declines. In a separate report, the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month, with rising prices for goods accounting for more than half of the increase. The PPI, which measures prices at the wholesale level, had declined 0.5 percent in February.  In the 12 months through March, producer prices fell 0.8 percent, the biggest year-on-year decline since the revamped series started in 2009. Of course, the Federal Reserve has a 2 percent inflation target, so this data does not suggest the Fed needs to be in a hurry to raise rates.   The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.8 points to 95.2, …

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Financial Review

While the Getting is Good

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56 = 17958 SPX + 9 = 2091 NAS + 23 = 4974 10 YR YLD + .06 = 1.96% OIL + .37 = 50.79 GOLD – 8.70 = 1194.50 SILV – .36 = 16.25   Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to 281,000 in the week ending April 4th.  Over the past 4 weeks, jobless claims have averaged 282,500 a week; the lowest level in 15 years. While companies are maintaining headcounts, job listings also have climbed. Openings rose to 5.1 million in February, the most since January 2001, according to the JOLTS report on Tuesday.   Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in February as wholesale sales fell 0.2%, perhaps a sign that companies experienced less demand in late winter that could cause them to temporarily scale back production.   In a televised speech today, Iran’s  supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran would agree to a final nuclear accord with the US and five other nations only if all sanctions over its disputed nuclear work were lifted.  In remarks apparently meant to keep hardline loyalists on side, he warned about the “devilish” intentions of the United States. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil minister, speaking today in China said that OPEC would “coordinate” to accommodate Iran’s return to oil markets without causing a price crash.   Samsung Electronics expects to ship record numbers of its new Galaxy S6 smartphone after it goes …

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