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Thursday, October 03, 2013 – Don’t Underestimate the Idiocy

Don’t Underestimate the Idiocy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 136 = 14,996SPX – 15 = 1678NAS – 40 = 377410 YR YLD – .02 = 2.61%OIL – 1.22 = 102.88GOLD + .40 = 1317.70SILV – .04 = 21.80 Well, we won’t be able to sift through the jobs report tomorrow, due to the government shutdown. There are lots of things that won’t happen tomorrow, but next week, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will meet in Washington. Ahead of the meeting, Christing Lagarde, the IMF Director delivered an assessment of the global economy. It’s subdued. Lagarde says “In many of the advanced economies, however, we are finally seeing signs of hope. Growth is looking up, financial stability is returning, and fiscal accounts are looking healthier.” The impact of a slowdown on US Federal Reserve asset purchases had been expected to dominate this year’s annual meetings but the Fed’s decision to hold off on tapering has removed that focus. And attention will now turn to the spectacle of a government shutdown and impending debt ceiling default. Lagarde called the debt ceiling “mission critical”, because “the normalization of monetary policy affects so many markets and people across the globe, the US has a special responsibility: to implement it in an orderly way, linking it to the pace of recovery and employment; to communicate it clearly; and to conduct a dialogue with others.” Late yesterday, President Obama was interviewed by CNBC and he warned that investors should be worried, saying “This …

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Tuesday, July 09, 2013 – What’s It All About?

What’s It All About? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,300SPX + 11 = 1652NAS + 19 = 3504 10 YR YLD -.01 = 2.63%OIL + 1.38 = 104.52GOLD + 13.40 = 1251.70SILV + .18 = 19.36 It’s earnings reporting season. The stock market is feeling happy for the moment. Second quarter earnings are expected to be soft, but expectations have been ratcheted down, so there is potential for upside surprises. That’s the game that’s played on Wall Street to siphon a little bit of trading profit. Anywhere else, they’d call it price fixing. But this game of diminished expectations may have some basis in reality. The top line numbers more than likely suck. Analysts expect the 30 companies in the Dow Industrial Average to see revenue growth of just 0.7%; that number could be ratcheted down into negative territory; that follows a 0.6% drop in revenue in the first quarter. What do you call it when there are two consecutive quarters of economic contraction? Recession. That’s a bit of a non sequitur, but the logical conclusion is not too far removed from the premise. After all, we’re talking about 30 of the biggest, most powerful companies in the world and they are struggling to grow sales. They’re still reporting profits, but that comes from cost cutting, which tends to fall on the labor force. There are limits to cost cutting as a business strategy for growing profits. No worries. The S&P 500 closed above 1650 and looks poised …

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Monday, June 17, 2013 – Preaching, Practicing, and Doing

Preaching, Practicing, and Doing by Sinclair Noe DOW + 109 = 15,179SPX + 12 = 1639NAS + 28 = 345210 YR YLD + .05 = 2.17%OIL + .07 = 97.92GOLD – 6.80 = 1385.70SILV – .24 = 21.94 President Obama is in Northern Ireland today, part of a three-day European tour that includes a G-8 summit meeting. Maybe we could call this the “Practice what I preach, not what I practice Tour”. Obama kicked off the tour with a speech in Belfast to celebrate Northern Ireland’s peace process; later he’ll talk with Euro leaders, including Russian President Putin about lifting a European arms embargo to arm Syrian rebels. The G-8 summit generally deals with economic issues, and tops on the list will be tax evasion. The Brits, lead by David Cameron and George Osborne will pressure for a comprehensive deal to include developing countries while preventing developed countries from trying to water down proposals. The two big ideas include having the beneficial ownership of offshore accounts made public and then having the G-8 countries commit to a global agreement on exchange of tax information that developing countries can join. The concern for poorer countries is that the G8 will deliver a “gold standard” for itself but offer a less satisfactory agreement for poor countries, which lose three times as much in tax evasion as they gain from aid. The Syrian conflict might actually be a positive for pushing through a deal on tax havens. It is unlikely there will be an …

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Friday, June 14, 2013 – Slip Sliding Along

Slip Sliding Along by Sinclair Noe DOW – 105 = 15,070SPX – 9 = 1626NAS – 21 = 342310 YR YLD – .05 = 2.13%OIL + 1.20 = 97.89GOLD + 5.80 = 1392.50SILV + .23 = 22.18 You will recall that in the final week of May, I told you we had hit the sell signal for the “Sell in May” strategy. You’re welcome. Even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while. For the week, the Dow fell 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 lost 1 percent, and the Nasdaq slid 1.3 percent. All three US stock indexes ended Friday’s session with their third week of losses out of the past four. Oil struck a nine-month high. Oil has been trading in a tight range between $90 and $97 for more than a month, and it was just a matter of time till it made some sort of move; it was a breakout. This appears to be a war premium, what with concerns about US intervention in Syria. Syria is not a key oil supplier, but the region is. The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters’s consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary June reading of 82.7 from a final May reading of 84.5. Aside from its interest as an economic indicator, the sentiment data grabbed headlines this week with reports that Thomson Reuters gives data to select subscribers early. People are gloomy. We didn’t need a early indicator from Rueters for that. The sentiment report is another nail …

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Wednesday, June 05, 2013 – Agree to Disagree

Agree to Disagree by Sinclair Noe DOW – 216 = 14,960SPX – 22 = 1608NAS  – 43 = 3401 10 YR YLD 0 .03 = 2.10%OIL + .38 = 93.69GOLD + 2.70 = 1403.70SILV unch = 22.65 The big economic news this week will be the Friday morning jobs report. ADP, the payroll processing company does its own jobs report, and today they estimated the economy added 119,000 new jobs in May. The ADP report is not a good indicator of Friday’s report, but taken on its own, today’s analysis shows a softening labor market, dragged down by the sequester. Then, this afternoon we read the Federal Reserve Beige Book; here’s how they described things: “Overall economic activity increased at a modest to moderate pace since the previous report across all Federal Reserve Districts except the Dallas District, which reported strong economic growth. The manufacturing sector expanded in most Districts since the previous Beige Book. Most Districts noted slight to moderate gains in consumer spending and a moderate increase in vehicle sales. Tourism showed signs of strength in several Districts. A wide variety of business services expanded, and transportation traffic increased for producer, consumer, and trade goods. Residential real estate and construction activity increased at a moderate to strong pace in all Districts. Commercial real estate and construction activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts.” And fade to beige, actually a modest to moderate shade of beige. After reading the Beige Book, I know what you’re probably thinking; yes, it is properly titled. …

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Thursday, May 16, 2013 – What’s Next For the Fed

What’s Next For the Fed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 42 = 15,233SPX – 8 = 1650NAS – 6 = 346510 YR YLD – .08 = 1.87%OIL + .95 = 95.25GOLD – 6.60 = 1386.90SILV + .10 = 22.79 The Labor Department reports the consumer price index dropped 0.4% in April from March, the biggest monthly drop since December 2008. The main reason the index fell was that gas prices plunged 8.1 percent. Excluding the drop in fuel costs, prices were largely unchanged. For the 12 months that ended in April, overall prices rose 1.1 percent — the smallest year-over-year increase in 2½ years. Excluding volatile energy and food costs, “core” prices ticked up 0.1 percent last month. Core prices have risen only 1.7 percent in the past 12 months. That’s below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target. Yesterday, we reported that wholesale prices declined last month. Inflation is not the problem right now; it might be a problem at some point down the road, but not now. John Williams, the San Francisco Fed presidentgave a speechin Portland and he indicated that the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program can be reduced soon, and that the whole program may be halted this year. He pointed out the pace of job growth has picked up since the program was launched in September, with an average pace of job growth of 200,000 over the last six months. Williams said: “Assuming my economic forecast holds true and various labor-market indicators continue to register appreciable …

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Friday, April 19, 2013 – A Bizarre New Normal

A Bizarre New Normal by Sinclair Noe DOW + 10 = 14,547SPX + 13 = 1555NAS + 39 = 320610 YR YLD +.02 = 1.70%OIL =.27 = 88.00GOLD + 14.40 = 1407.50SILV + .01 = 23.39 You’ve probably heard the stories out of Boston today. Late yesterday police released a photo of two young men; it turns out to be two brothers, Tamerlan and Dzohkhar Tasarnaev; originally from Chechnya and living in Boston for the past 10 years. Last night the two brothers tried to flee; they robbed a convenience store. The two men then fatally shot an MIT campus police officer and carjacked a sport-utility vehicle at gunpoint, keeping the vehicle’s owner hostage for about a half-hour. The owner was released at a gas station in Cambridge. He wasn’t injured. As police pursued the vehicle, explosive devices were thrown from the car. There was an exchange of gunfire between police and the suspects. A Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority officer was wounded during the exchange. Hundreds of police officers descended on the Cambridge and Watertown areas as the violence unfolded Thursday night. The older of the suspects was shot by police; the younger brother, still in a car, managed to drive away. At some point he abandoned the vehicle, and he is still at large, believed to be in the Boston neighborhood of Watertown. Police had locked down Boston. It is a voluntary lockdown. Millions of Bostonians are asked to stay in their homes. Streets are empty, trains are not …

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Thursday, April 18, 2013 – Elvis and Other Ongoing Investigations

Elvis and Other Ongoing Investigations by Sinclair Noe DOW – 81 = 14,537SPX – 10 = 1541NAS – 38 = 3166 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.69% OIL + 1.68 = 88.36GOLD + 14.60 = 1393.10SILV – .03 = 23.38 Emergency teams went house to house through mounds of debris in a devastated four-block area of West, Texas; that’s the name of the town – West; it’s near Waco. An explosion at a fertilizer plant leveled a big part of the town and there are 15 dead and perhaps 160 injured. Officials said there was no initial indication that the blast was anything but an industrial accident, but it is an ongoing investigation. Maybe someone will look into the wisdom behind building a fertilizer plant right next to a residential area and even a nursing home. Meanwhile, an interfaith service was held in Boston today to mourn the victims of the bombing. It was actually a very good service. Several dignitaries spoke, including President Obama, who promised that the perpetrators will face justice. But it is an ongoing investigation. The FBI has released pictures of a couple of guys carrying large backpacks; they think they might be suspects in the bombings. Meanwhile, the FBI has arrested a man in Mississippi for mailing letters laced with the poison ricin. The suspect is an Elvis impersonator. I can’t make this stuff up. We’re seeing economic growth cool off a little bit after a strong start to the year. The index of …

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Tuesday, April 16, 2013 – Love That Dirty Water

Love That Dirty Water by Sinclair Noe DOW + 157 = 14,756SPX + 22 = 1574NAS + 48 = 326410 YR YLD + .02 = 1.72%OIL + .20 = 89.90GOLD + 16.70 = 1370.30SILV + .65 = 23.44 If home is where the heart is, then Boston is everybody’s hometown today. No significant developments to report. The death toll stands at 3, with 176 people reported as injured, some in very critical condition. Officials now say it was just two bombs; yesterday, there was speculation there were more. There is no indication that the bombing was part of a broader plot. We still don’t know if it was one evil lunatic or a group of evil lunatics. We don’t know if it was done by someone from this country or elsewhere. There have been no arrests, and it is a very intensive ongoing investigation. We should not speculate on some things. What we do know is that people responded by running toward the blast to help the victims. We do know that the medical personnel and others responded heroically. And we do know that the good, decent, and heroic people outnumber the evil lunatics; always have, always will. Total housing starts in March were up 46.7% from the March 2012 pace, although some of that increase was due to a surge in multi-family starts in March. Single family starts were up 28.7%. Even with this significant increase, housing starts are still very low. The consumer price index decreased 0.2% in March, led …

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Tuesday, March 19, 2013 – First, They Came for the Bank Deposits

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. First, They Came for the Bank Deposits by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 14,455SPX – 3 = 1548NAS – 8 = 322910 YR YLD – .05 = 1.91OIL – 1.72 = 92.39GOLD + 7.00 = 1613.80SILV + .01 = 29.01 The best quote I’ve seen on the Cyprus Bank Heist; and I wish I had thought of this; “First, they came for the bank deposits.” Actually, they are still in the planning and scheming stages of stealing bank deposits from the Cypriots; some say it’s really an attack on Russian mob money. And so one new scheme being floated is to only expropriate accounts above 100 thousand-euros. The Cyprus banks are still on holiday. We should note that at least half the Cyprus bank bailout capital needs come from the restructuring of Greek debt held by Cyprus banks that Cyprus government agreed to as part of ‘EU solidarity’. You remember the haircut on Greek bonds? You didn’t expect the bankers to really take a hit on that did you? No, eventually it worked its way back to the bank depositors, …

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