Financial Review

No F8 but What You Make

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe start of earnings season, oil bounces, Fedspeak, and our F8 is to talk to bots.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-12-2016

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Financial Review

Nobody Knows Normalization

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-12-2016   DOW + 313 = 15,973 SPX + 35 = 1864 NAS + 70 = 4337 10 Y + .10 = 1.75% OIL + 2.77 = 28.98 GOLD – 9.40 = 1238.00 The Nikkei Stock Average finished down 11% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since October 2008. For the day, the index ended off 4.8% at 14,952, the lowest since October 2014. The Nikkei is down 21% year-to-date. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a meeting with his top financial diplomat today, as well as the BOJ’s governor, following a report that the “architect of Abenomics” called for a Group of 20-wide response to the recent market rout. Friday’s high-level gathering came as the country’s stock markets plunged again and the yen hit highs not seen since October 2014. Speculation is also rampant that Tokyo could conduct yen-selling intervention.     The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese companies trading in Hong Kong fell 2% Friday and was off 6.8% for the week. Trading was halted on the Kosdaq, the smaller cap, tech focused exchange in South Korea as the index dropped by more than 8%.     Here in the US, we’re not quite in bear territory for the major indices: the Nasdaq dropped 18% from last summer’s high; the S&P 500 dropped 15% from last year’s high.     And then …

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Financial Review

Headwinds and Tailwinds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-14-2016 DOW + 227 = 16,379 SPX + 31 = 1921 NAS + 88 = 4615 10 Y + .03 = 2.10 OIL + .66 = 31.14 GOLD – 15.00 = 1079.50   Global stocks have lost almost $3.2-trillion in market value since the start of 2016, pushing all major US indexes into correction or bear market territory. Asian markets (except for China) and European exchanges were mostly lower. Even with a bounce, we’re trending lower, short-term.   The Bank of England this morning kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5% and made no changes to its $540 billion asset purchase program. Both decisions were widely expected.   The Hong Kong dollar sank by the most in more than a decade overnight and speculation mounted in the options market that the city’s 32-year-old currency peg will soon come to an end, as investors lost confidence in Chinese assets. Other currencies also took a hit. The loonie fell to its lowest level since April 2003, fueling speculation the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates as early as next week.   The average number of people who applied for jobless benefits in the past month climbed in early 2016 to the highest level since last July. Initial jobless claims for the first full week of January, meanwhile, rose by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 284,000; the …

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Financial Review

Bueller? Bueller?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2015 DOW + 33 = 17,084 SPX + 1 = 2014 NAS + 19 = 4830 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10 OIL + .14 = 49.57 GOLD + 17.40 = 1157.40 SILV + .16 = 15.93   World shares were green across the board after details from the Fed’s minutes cast further doubt on the prospect of a rate rise this year. European stocks broke a one-month high for their best weekly gain since late January on renewed hopes central banks will keep monetary policy loose for longer. Overnight, Asian equities and currencies also moved higher following yesterday’s gains on Wall Street (the Dow ended above 17,000 for the first time since August, while the S&P 500 closed well past its 50-day MA of 1,995).   Oil prices traded above $50 a barrel this morning, with a gain of nearly 9% this week; for the biggest weekly gain in 6 years.   Investors are now positioning themselves for corporate earnings season, which picks up steam next week with most of the nation’s largest banks reporting their results, as well as big companies including; Intel, Netflix, UnitedHealth and GE. Earnings are expected to be down roughly 5.5 percent from a year ago, according to FactSet, mostly because of the drop in commodity prices. Now there is a game on Wall Street where analysts set the bar very low …

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Financial Review

Muppets in the Lobby

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-13-2015 DOW + 5 = 17,408 SPX – 2 = 2083 NAS – 10 = 5033 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – 1.07 = 42.23 GOLD – 10.80 = 1115.70 SILV – .12 = 15.52 So, stocks closed basically flat, but it was a roller coaster ride. The major indices started the day in negative territory, then recovered, only to slide into the close. This was a very busy day for economic reports.   Sales at US retailers were solid in July and stronger than previously estimated for May and June. Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, or by 0.4% excluding the auto sector. In the retail sales data in July, the gains were led by the auto sector, where sales jumped 1.4%. This was expected as the light vehicle selling rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 17.5 million units, the second best result since early 2006. And just a quick reminder that many auto sales are imports. But the sales gain in July was broad based. All sectors showed increases except electronics and general merchandise and department stores. In the past year, retail sales have risen 2.4%.   A side note here; it may seem strange that consumers are spending less on electronics, after all it seems like everybody has smartphones and other electro-gadgets; the reality is that we are buying …

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Financial Review

Sheepish Algorithms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,053 SPX + 9 = 2108 NAS + 33 = 5104 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.40% OIL + .84 = 53.04 GOLD – 2.70 = 1155.80 SILV – .13 = 15.48   The stock market posted its first 4-day winning streak since January. The S&P 500 last week fell as much as 4 percent from its all-time high, and has since recovered to trade within 1 percent of its record set in May. The S&P 500 and the Dow are up 3 percent over four sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite has added 4 percent. The United States and other world powers reached an agreement with Iran that calls for limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, enabling the oil-rich nation to ramp up its energy exports, access international finance and open the doors to global investors. Full implementation of the agreement will likely take months and is contingent on the pace at which Iran meets its obligations. The deal will keep Iran from producing enough material for an atomic weapon for at least 10 years and impose provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites.   Oil prices initially dropped when the Iran deal was announced, but then prices climbed higher. The oil markets were not surprised by the news announcement, and a …

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Financial Review

No Small Thing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 18,060 SPX – 0.64 = 2098 NAS + 5 = 4981 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.28% OIL – .62 = 60.13 GOLD + 22.10 = 1216.10 SILV + .61 = 17.19   U.S. retail sales were flat in April. Americans went out to eat more and made plenty of Internet purchases, but we cut back on gasoline, autos, home furnishings and electronic goods, among other things. While March’s retail sales were revised up to show a 1.1 percent increase instead of the previously reported 0.9 percent rise, that was not enough to offset the general weak tone of the report. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services were also unchanged. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.   You can’t blame the bad winter weather for this report. The American consumer is acting in a most bizarre manner…, they are not spending, they are saving. The most recent data, from March, shows that Americans saved 5.3% of their pre-tax income, down from 5.7% in February. But the average savings rate so far in 2015 is higher than it was last year and in 2013. Savings spiked following the recession, but it was widely expected the savings rate would eventually fall back to the pre-bubble rates of 3% or 4%. Yea, that’s not …

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Financial Review

How to Eat a Bank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 98 = 18,057 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 21 = 4995 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .99 = 51.78 GOLD + 13.80 = 1208.30 SILV + .34 = 16.59   For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains.   Oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The oil rally coincided with a stronger dollar, which weighs on dollar denominated commodities. In March, the prices the U.S. paid for imported goods and services fell for the eighth time in the last nine months, even though the cost of foreign oil actually rose for the second straight time. Import prices dropped 0.3% last month, or an even steeper 0.4% excluding fuel.   The sharply lower cost of imported goods is a double-edged sword. We may pay less for commodities and all sorts of goods such as cell phones and electronics; and that can stretch paychecks. Next Tuesday the Commerce Department reports on retail sales and we’ll find out if shoppers are in a spending mood or a savings mood. A strong dollar is also great if you plan to travel abroad; they say April in Paris is pretty nice. Yet the strong dollar also makes US goods and services …

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