Financial Review

Thank You

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks slip for the week. Focus on tax cuts but the devil is in the details. Oil drops. Consumer sentiment up. 3 men v. 160 million. Baba’s Singles’ Day. Earnings. Veterans Day tomorrow – thank you. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-10-2017

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies. Enjoy While You Can.

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 15 = 18,224 SPX – 1 = 2113 NAS – 0.98 = 4967 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.97% OIL + 1.75 = 51.03 GOLD + 2.90 = 1205.20 SILV + .22 = 16.64   Another record high for the Dow Industrial Average. These are the days of milk and cookies.   Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen continued her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony today in front of the House Financial Services Committee. The prepared opening remarks were identical to the testimony yesterday in the Senate. The Q&A session became a bit testy today as Yellen was accused of political bias. Republicans questioned Yellen about an October speech on inequality, just before the midterm elections, as evidence she was leaning toward the Obama administration and Democrats. Methinks they doth protest too much. There were also calls for an audit of the Fed, historically a nonstarter with Federal Reserve Chairs. It made for generally poor political theater.   The important part of the testimony was fairly easy to find. Keep in mind the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. So the key statement from Yellen was when she said: “Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of …

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Financial Review

Floors and Ceilings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 263 = 16,380 SPX + 24 = 1886 NAS + 41 = 4258 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL + .27 = 82.97 GOLD – .70 = 1239.20 SILV – .10 = 17.37 The markets were down for the week, even with the bounce today. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each dropped about 1%; the Dow was down 164 points on the week, and the S&P was down 20 points. The S&P is now down for 4 consecutive weeks. Let’s take a look at the charts. Earlier in the week I talked about support and resistance. Someone mentioned to me that they weren’t quite clear on the concept. So, here is a good way to look at these topics. Support is the floor and resistance is the ceiling. Think of a chart as a staircase under construction. The stairs are being built, hopefully higher and higher, and to prop up the stairs, you have to have a structure, or floors and ceilings. When you break through the ceiling to a new higher level, that ceiling then becomes the floor for the next level up. In other words, resistance becomes support. If the staircase of price falls, the last floor will catch you, or provide support. Then to go higher yet again, you will have to punch through that ceiling, or resistance, again. So, let’s look …

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Financial Review

Thursday, June 12, 2014 – The Beautiful Game

The Beautiful Game by Sinclair Noe DOW – 109 = 16,734 SPX – 13 = 1930 NAS – 34 = 4297 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.59% OIL + 2.51 = 106.91 GOLD + 12.70 = 1274.30 SILV + .34 = 19.63   This is a big day for sports fans. In the US, many fans are thinking about the NBA playoffs or the start of the US Open golf championship, but those games are small potatoes compared to the World Cup. Over the next month, the World Cup will attract about 4 billion television viewers, maybe more when we consider all the digital devices that can replay the games; that’s more than the 3.6 billion viewers who watched the Beijing Olympic games; more than the 3.2 billion that watched the 2010 World Cup. By comparison, the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl managed a record 111 million viewers. The cumulative viewership for all the matches over the next month might top 35 billion. It’s a corporate marketing bonanza.   Over the next month, there will be countries across the globe that will quite literally shut down for 90 minutes intervals. Courts will delay hearing cases, hospitals will not schedule surgeries, offices and retail outlets and factories will shut down, the crime rate will drop, the streets will empty with almost zero traffic, planes stop flying, and trains stop running. I’ve seen it happen; and because I am blessed to be married to a lovely Brazilian woman, I have been caught up …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, June 04, 2014 – An Airtight Defense

An Airtight Defense by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 15 = 16,737 SPX + 3 = 1927 (record close) NAS + 17 = 4251 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.60% OIL – .27 = 102.39 GOLD – 1.30 = 1244.60 SILV – .01 = 18.90   Eight times a year the Federal Reserve gathers economic updates from the 12 districts and publishes the information about two weeks before its FOMC meetings. The data is published in a beige folder, and that is why it is called the Beige Book, although it might actually refer to the writing style. Anyway, economic activity expanded all across the country, with most districts reporting moderate or modest growth. Consumer spending expanded across almost all districts. Tourism was another bright spot and manufacturing activity expanded across the country. Home sales were described as “mixed across the country” even as home prices continue to rise. Labor markets were described as steady. Inflation was tame, with a slight exception for higher food prices in some areas.   In other words, when the Fed meets in a couple of weeks, there won’t be any big changes in monetary policy.   The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 56.3%, its highest level since August, from 55.2% in April. That’s the number and they’re sticking with it.   The US trade deficit grew to $47 billion in April, up from $44 billion in March. Exports slowed in April, down slightly to $193 billion. Imports, meanwhile, …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, April 09, 2014 – Feeding Time at the ZIRP Trough

Feeding Time at the ZIRP Troughby Sinclair Noe DOW + 181 = 16,437SPX + 20 = 1872NAS + 70 = 418310 YR YLD un = 2.68%OIL + 1.04 = 103.60GOLD + 4.30 = 1313.30SILV  – .22 = 19.95 In an otherwise light week for economic news, the big report is today’s release of the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting. No surprises. You may recall that after the last meeting, Chairwoman Janet Yellen talked about the possibility of raising the fed funds target rate after a “considerable time”; when pressed she indicated a “considerable time” was about six months after the Fed ends it asset purchases under Quantitative Easing. That would mean late spring or summer of 2015. Fed policymakers were unanimous in wanting to ditch the thresholds they had been using to telegraph a policy tightening; no hard and fast target of 6.5% unemployment or 2% inflation. The minutes indicate the Fed would like to see more improvement in the economy; the emphasis on quality rather than quantity. In other words, the Fed remains dovish, and they will taper but they will also keep rates low for a long time. And also, those “dots” are over-rated. The dots are actually charts suggesting the fed funds rate would top 2% by the end of 2016. In the minutes published today, several policy-makers claim the charts overstated the shift in projections, which would suggest the Fed is not ready to tighten policy. A couple of the voting members wanted to commit …

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Monday, March 10, 2014 – Disconnected

Disconnectedby Sinclair Noe DOW – 34 = 16,418SPX – 0.87 = 1877NAS – 1 = 433410 YR YLD – .01 = 2.78%OIL – 1.64 = 100.94GOLD + .30 = 1340.80SILV – .05 = 20.94 This is a pretty quiet week for economic data; Thursday brings a report on February retail sales; we’ll also see reports Friday on inflation at the wholesale level and on consumer sentiment. That’s about it. Today, we ran across the Economic Report of the President, compiled by the White House Council of Economic Advisors, which discusses the progress of the recovery. The economic report serves as the administration’s analysis of the president’s $3.9 trillion budget, which he unveiled last week. The president’s top economic advisors say the nation is on track to make economic progress over the next two years, but say it would do even better if Congress would enact the additional spending he proposed in his most recent budget. Yea, that’s not going to happen. Even without new government spending, the economy should pick up a little, in part because the budget cuts moving forward won’t be as bad as what we’ve already seen. The economists think consumer spending has adjusted since the payroll tax cut expired more than a year ago. Increases in housing construction and greater business investments should give the economy a boost as well. The report says gross domestic product should expand by 3.1% this year and 3.4% next year, which would be the best performance since 2005. The economy …

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Thursday, February 27, 2014 – As She Was Saying…

As She Was Saying… by Sinclair Noe DOW + 74 = 16,272SPX + 9 = 1854NAS + 26 = 431810 YR YLD – .03 = 2.64%OIL – .35 = 102.24GOLD + 2.00 = 1332.80SILV + .05 = 21.36 Two weeks ago, the freshly minted Fed Chair Janet Yellen appeared before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver her first bi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony on the state of the economy and monetary policy. She read a prepared statement and then answered questions from the Congressional representatives. The next day she was scheduled to repeat the process with senators; that didn’t happen because of a big winter storm that essentially resulted in a Snow Day for Washington DC. Today, Yellen returned to Capitol Hill to continue her testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Yellen began today’s hearing with the same prepared remarks from two weeks ago, but then she got to the part about the Fed’s outlook for the economy and this time she said something a little different: “Mr. Chairman, let me add as an aside that since my appearance before the House committee, a number of data releases have pointed to softer spending than many analysts had expected. Part of that softness may reflect adverse weather conditions, but at this point, it’s difficult to discern exactly how much. In the weeks and months ahead, my colleagues and I will be attentive to signals that indicate whether the recovery is progressing in line with our earlier expectations.” Now for the past …

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Wednesday, February 26, 2014 – Inequality With a Dash of Salt

Inequality With a Dash of Salt by Sinclair Noe DOW + 18 = 16,198SPX + .04 = 1845NAS + 4 = 429210 YR YLD – .03 = 2.67%OIL +72 = 102.55GOLD – 11.80 = 1330.80SILV – .68 = 21.32 Sales of new single-family homes started 2014 with surprising strength, with January posting the fastest pace in more than five years. Home sales jumped 9.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000, hitting the highest level since July 2008. Today’s sales news follows a string of recent reports signaling recent sputtering in the housing market. The data, to be fair, have a huge confidence interval—plus or minus 17.9% in January. That means we can’t know for certain whether sales rose or fell during the month. On a three-month average, sales rose 1.2% in January. Sometimes you have to take a look at economic data with a dash of salt. Bank earnings jumped in the fourth quarter, but not solely because of increased net income. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, financial institutions in the US earned a whopping $40.3 billion in net income in the fourth quarter of 2013, up 16.9% from a year earlier. More than half of the 6,812 FDIC insured institutions reported a year-over-year growth in quarterly earnings. And the portion of unprofitable banks dropped to 12.2% from 15% in the fourth quarter of 2012. But it’s not all good news. The improvement in earnings was largely attributable to an $8 billion decline in …

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Monday, February 03, 2014 – Another Piece of Cake, Marie?

Another Piece of Cake, Marie?by Sinclair Noe DOW – 326 = 15,372SPX – 40 = 1741NAS – 106 = 399610 YR YLD – .09 = 2.58%OIL – .78 = 96.71 GOLD + 11.20 = 1258.10SILV + .17 = 19.44 In economic news, manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years while construction spending barely rose in December. Maybe it had something to do with the cold weather, maybe it’s just a pause after slightly stronger economic growth in the third and fourth quarters. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 51.3 last month, its lowest level since May 2013, from 56.5 in December. It was the second straight month of slowing growth from November’s recent peak reading of 57, which had been the highest since April 2011, and indicated manufacturing was slowing after output grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the fourth quarter. Underscoring the weather impact, delivery delays increased a bit last month, but the biggest red flag was the huge drop in the forward-looking new orders index, which fell to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. That 13.2-point drop was the largest monthly decline in the key component since December 1980. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said construction spending rose 0.1% in December, slowing from the prior month’s 0.8% increase. While private construction spending hit a five year high, outlays on public construction projects …

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