Financial Review

November Wrap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-30-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..A November to remember as stocks hit records and bonds bleed. OPEC agrees to production cuts – oil soars. ADP says 216k new jobs. Consumer spending rose, inflation not so much. Beige Book confirms Fed rate hike. Mnuchin and Ross picked for Treasury and Commerce. Carrier keeps half of workers in Indiana. Lucid has big plans for Casa Grande. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-30-2016.

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Financial Review

Inflation and a High Pressure Economy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-18-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Inflation creeps forward. The Fed an inflation. Social Security benefits will increase 0.3% – don’t spend it all in one place. First time home buyers actually exist. Netflix crushes earnings. IBM, Goldman Sachs, United Health, and J&J beat. Fund managers go to cash. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-18-2016

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Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session of …

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Financial Review

Basic Economics – Inflation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_2-03-09-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 7:10 — 3.3MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSIt’s time now for another edition of “What you need to know about basic economics.” Today we tackle inflation, which is another way of saying prices are rising; more specifically, it is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. Inflation is usually expressed on an annual basis, so a 2% inflation rate means that prices across the economy as a whole are 2% higher than 12 months ago. If something cost you $100 a year ago, it would cost $102 today. Actually, the inflation rate is currently at 1.4% for the 12 months through January 2016.   There are several ways to measure the economy. The most familiar gauge is the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which measures prices at the retail level. The CPI is used to determine the Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA, which determines if Social Security benefits are increased to reflect changes in inflation. The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures prices at the wholesale level, including the cost of raw materials and the prices manufacturers charge retailers. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge is the personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, price index.   Inflation can help illustrate whether an economy is in good health, or whether it is overheating or slowing down too much. Steady, moderate, and predictable price increases are a hallmark of a stable and healthy economy, and that is …

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Financial Review

The I File

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-19-2016 DOW – 21 = 16,391 SPX – .05 = 1917 NAS + 16 = 4504 10 Y – .01 = 1.74% OIL – 1.00 = 29.74 GOLD – 4.70 = 1227.00   So, stocks were basically flat today but it was a good week. Big gains on Tuesday and Wednesday lifted the major indexes to their best weekly performances this year, with the Nasdaq gained 3.9% for the week, its strongest week since July. The S&P 500 gained 2.8% for the week.   Crude gained sharply earlier this week as major oil producers proposed a joint production freeze, but investors remain cautious whether the cap will actually materialize and worry about building U.S. crude inventories. Late yesterday the Energy Information Administration said crude stockpiles rose 2.1 million barrels last week, to a peak of 504.1 million barrels in the third week of hitting record highs in the past month. The EIA also cited record high gasoline inventories. Oil and stocks have been trading in lockstep, sort of. Oil down, stocks down. Oil up, stocks up. Not exactly, not a perfect correlation, but stocks can’t seem to get out of the shadow of oil.   In earnings news: Applied Materials posted a strong profit and revenue forecast for the current quarter. Nordstrom shares dropped 6.7 percent after the department store operator’s quarterly profit and revenue missed expectations and they lowered …

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Financial Review

Bon Appetit

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-06-2016 DOW – 252 = 16,906 SPX – 26 = 1990 NAS – 55 = 4835 10 Y – .07 =  2.18% OIL – 1.98 = 33.99 GOLD + 16.30 = 1094.80   Sometimes the world can be a messy place. Global markets get discombobulated. That has been the case in the first few trading days of the year. Saudi Arabia and Iran are about as friendly as cats and dogs, China’s economic growth is grinding slower, and then, in left field, North Korea drops a bomb, or at least tests a bomb, maybe.   North Korea announced that scientists had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a magnitude 5.1 earthquake was triggered near North Korea’s nuclear test site in the northeast of the country, but could not confirm that it was related to an H-bomb test.   China’s central bank set the yuan’s reference rate at an unexpectedly weak level, a reminder of the shock depreciation in August that sparked a wave of financial-market turmoil. Chinese media said that last summer’s selling ban on major shareholders would remain in place until the government publishes new rules on such sales.  The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.3 percent. Emerging-market stocks dropped to a six-year low and developing-nation currencies declined versus the dollar, while shares in Europe resumed losses after closing higher on Tuesday. Investors are continuing …

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Financial Review

The Gravy Boat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-25-2015 DOW + 1 = 17,813 SPX – 0.27 = 2088 NAS + 13 = 5116 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.23% OIL + .25 = 43.12 GOLD – 4.50 = 1071.90 SILV – .05 = 14.26   We have a boatload, or at least a gravy boat full of economic data before we get into the holiday. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended Nov. 21. Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 38 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and remain close to levels last seen 42 years ago.   Orders for business equipment climbed more than forecast in October. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.3 percent, the most in three months, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in September; non-defense capital goods are considered a proxy for business investment. So, today’s report shows businesses are spending more on business. It may be too early to call it a trend reversal but cap ex spending had been weak, in large part due to cuts in the energy sector, and also the tendency for companies to indulge in share buybacks rather than plowing money back into the business.   Orders for all durable goods, items meant to last at least three years, climbed 3 percent. Commercial aircraft orders surged 81 percent …

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Financial Review

Pick a Lane

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2015 DOW + 6 = 17,489 SPX – 2 = 2050 NAS + 1 = 4986 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.26% OIL – .95 = 40.79 GOLD – 12.30 = 1070.80 SILV – .06 = 14.29   Global equity markets moved higher today, following the rally yesterday on Wall Street and brushed off concerns related to Friday’s terror attacks in Paris. In their final communique from a summit in Turkey, the leaders of the world’s largest economies stuck to a goal of lifting their collective output by an extra 2% by 2018, even though growth remains uneven and weaker than expected globally. G20 leaders also endorsed plans to address Syria’s refugee crisis, taxation, climate change, cyber security and inequality.   France launched another set of airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria early Tuesday as the country steps up its response to last week’s deadly attacks. The bombings follow a second night of home searches in France and Belgium to catch those responsible and linked to the killings. President Francois Hollande is now looking to expand his powers under France’s state-of-emergency statute and has called on the U.S. and Russia to form a “big unified coalition” to destroy ISIS.   Meanwhile, Russian officials said they had found evidence that the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month was downed by a bomb, the first time those …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, if …

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Financial Review

Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On Tuesday, investors pulled out $19 billion, the biggest single day for outflows in the past 8 years.  Some traders would call that “capitulation”, a sign of a bottom in the markets.   The chaos of this week’s markets appeared to hit smaller investors especially hard, leaving yet another dent in their stock market confidence. The Monday flash crash resulted in smaller investors being locked out of their online accounts. Strange glitches appeared. Exchanges spit out the wrong prices for widely held funds. For example, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF dropped 33% in 15 minutes, then shot right back up 30 minutes later, while the stocks tracked by the ETF never fell that far. The QQQ, which …

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