Financial Review

If You Build It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks bounce. Infrastructure plan unveiled – how to pay remains a mystery. 2019 Budget unveiled – another mystery. GD buys CSRA. Wells credit cut. Unilever wants to clean up social media. Barnes & Noble cuts jobs, Amazon copies. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-12-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Diminished Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-31-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…State of the Uniom review. Fed FOMC, Yellen’s last. ADP jobs beat. Earnings: Microsoft, Facebook, AT&T, Qualcomm, Boeing. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-31-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Drifting Higher

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/sinclair_noe-seg_1-06-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Waiting for Super Thursday. Testimony today on Capitol Hill reveals nothing. Trump pushes infrastructure plan. NSA intelligence on Russia hack attempt on voting featuring Reality Winner. Bill Gross and high risk. Bankruptcies rise. Oil tumbles on inventory new. Book a flight to Europe – you can afford it. Toshiba sale. Don’t forget Canada.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-07-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Take 63

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-04-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trade deficit falls. China-US trade talks this week. Infrastructure talk, look for a package in May. Carbon tax and VAT? Repeal pre-existing conditions. Retail sector slide. Fed Prez Jeffrey Lacker resigns. JPMorgan annual letter to shareholders – there is “something wrong” with the country. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-04-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Count Your Pants and Shirts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEGH_1-02-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow hits 10th straight record. Thus spake Mnuchin. How to create jobs. Oil inventories slim down. More jobs in wind than oil. XOM de-books oil reserves. US-Europe flights for $65. McDonald’s soda for one buck. Ghosn gone. Earnings reports. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-23-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Something in the Water

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks turn positive. A big water problem that won’t be resolved. Brazil has the most fascinating corruption.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

If You Build It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-25-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-25-2016 DOW + 212 = 16,697 SPX + 21 = 1951 NAS + 39 = 4582 10 Y – .05 = 1.70% OIL + .93 = 33.08 GOLD + 4.30 = 1233.70 The Shanghai Composite in China dropped 6.4% today, extending its fall this year to 22%, as surging money-market rates signaled tighter liquidity and the offshore yuan weakened for a fifth day, while the country’s vice finance minister warned of pressure on exports. The plunge comes as world leaders gather for a G20 meeting in Shanghai, where current market turmoil and a global economic slowdown are expected to be key topics of discussion. European shares bounced after two days of falls, and sterling steadied after having been pounded all week by ‘Brexit’ fears.  The S&P 500 Index closed at a seven-week high, right at a major level of resistance, and just barely breaking above the 50 day moving average.   Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for urgent and bold action to combat the slowing world economy ahead of the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs. The IMF report says: “The G20 must plan now for coordinated demand support using available fiscal space to boost public investment.” The calls for an organized stimulus program followed warnings that China’s slowdown, financial market turbulence and the collapse in commodity prices were major headwinds that could derail a global …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Test Results Are In

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-24-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 17,817 SPX + 5 = 2069 NAS + 41 = 4754 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .81 = 75.70 GOLD – 3.80 = 1199.30 SILV + .02 = 16.57 The S&P 500 has gained 11% since bottoming out in a slump that stretched from mid-September to mid-October. The rally has been driven by a belief that central bank actions in Europe, China and Japan will help invigorate global economic growth. On Friday, China’s central bank lowered a key interest rate and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to step up the bank’s efforts to stimulate the Eurozone, which has been struggling. Speaking of European investors that sell assets to the ECB moving into other, more risky, assets that would help accelerate the euro area’s growth, Draghi said that higher prices for European assets might encourage some foreign holders to switch away from the euro, with “investors rebalancing portfolios away from euro-denominated assets towards other jurisdictions and currencies providing higher yields.” Just to make sure that listeners got the message, he added there was evidence that the asset-purchase programs of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan “led to a significant depreciation of their respective exchange rates, even in a situation in which long-term yields were already very low, as in Japan.” You have been warned; …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Third Quarter Wrap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 28 = 17,042 SPX – 5 = 1972 NAS – 12 = 4493 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51% OIL – 3.14 = 91.43 GOLD – 6.30 = 1209.70 SILV – .49 = 17.07 We wrap up the third quarter of 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.4% year to date; and it is up about 11% from the lows of February. Ten of the 30 Dow stocks are up more than 10% year to date. Eight of the Dow stocks are in negative territory for the year, even after adding in divdends. The best performing Dow stocks are Intel (up 37% ytd) and Microsoft (up 28% ytd). The worst performing Dow stocks are Boeing (down 5% ytd) and United Technologies (down 6% ytd). The Dow lost 55 points, or 0.3%, for the month, and for the third quarter the Dow added 217 points or 1.3%. The S&P 500 dropped 31 points, or 1.5% in September, and added 12 points for the quarter; and that was good enough for the seventh consecutive quarterly gain, the best run for the S&P 500 since 1998. The Nasdaq Composite lost 87 points, or 1.8%, for the month, but added 85 points for the third quarter. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks lost 69 points, or 5.8% in September; and posted a loss of 98 points, or 8.1% for …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 97 = 17,013 SPX – 13 = 1988 NAS – 40 = 4552 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50% OIL + .05 = 92.80 GOLD + .30 = 1256.80 SILV + .04 = 19.16 Today’s epiphany is courtesy of Apple; they unveiled not one but three new things. Let’s examine. The iPhone 6 is the new phone, and it is a little bit bigger than the old phone. And they even have an iPhone 6 plus, which is a little bit bigger. So, the new phones won’t fit in your pocket anymore. I know, it’s like the most totally incredible thing ever. The Apple Watch is smaller than the old phone; so small it can be strapped on your wrist. It even has a dial so older people will realize it is supposed to be a watch and not just a little phone strapped to your wrist. It is called the Apple Watch because iWatch was just a little too creepy. The third thing is Apple Pay, which is a payment processing service that has Apple partnering with American Express, MasterCard, and Visa so you can pay for purchases with a big iPhone 6 or an Apple Watch, just like you can pay for things with an American Express, MasterCard, or Visa credit card. The big difference is this is new technology, whereas the credit card is like 50 …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Thursday, April 24, 2014 – The Bridge From Bubbles to Prosperity

The Bridge From Bubbles to Prosperity by Sinclair Noe DOW unchanged 16,501SPX + 3 = 1878NAS + 21 = 414810 YR YLD unchanged 2.69%OIL + .46 = 101.90GOLD + 10.20 = 1294.90SILV + .20 = 19.75 The Dow closed unchanged. That is just one of those freaky things that happens every few years. I remember it happened in 2008, and 1998 and 1996. I’m fairly sure there were other days where the Dow closed unchanged. I don’t know if there is any particular significance. Orders to factories for durable goods rose 2.6%, adding to the 2.1% rise in February. The back-to-back gains followed two big declines in December and January, which had raised concerns about possible weakness in manufacturing. The earlier declines, however, were likely tied to bad winter weather. On the jobs front, the number of people seeking unemployment benefits jumped 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 329,000 last week. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 316,750, which puts us back to 2007 levels. The big earnings report today was Microsoft, which posted income of $5.6 billion, or 68 cents per share, compared with $6 billion, or 72 cents, in the year-ago quarter. They beat estimates of 63 cents per share, but take it with a grain of salt; the estimates started the quarter around 80 cents per share. Yesterday we talked about a tech bubble, and whether we were in one or not, and we looked at comments from Greenlight Capital manager David Einhorn; he says …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, November 01, 2013 – Halloween, Christmas and Banksters

Everyday is Christmas by Sinclair Noe DOW + 69 = 15,615SPX + 5 = 1761NAS + 2 = 392210 YR YLD + .08 = 2.62%OIL – 1.78 = 94.60 GOLD – 6.90 = 1316.80SILV – .04 = 21.97 I hope you enjoyed Halloween, maybe you got to hand out some candy to the little kids. And what wasn’t handed out, well I hope it’s digested, because this this might make you queasy. Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, etc., etc. Today is Black Friday. Retailers facing the shortest holiday season in years are preparing to assail customers with deals and promotions as of right now. Wal-Mart is kicking off its online deals today, a month earlier than usual, underscoring worries that intense discounting aimed at luring budget-conscious shoppers could result in the most tepid holiday spending rise in four years. Retailers have traditionally kicked off the all-important holiday shopping season on or the day after Thanksgiving and saved some of their best online deals for “Cyber Monday,” the Monday after Thanksgiving when workers return to offices and use computers to make holiday purchases. This year, the holiday falls on Nov. 28 and as a result there are six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, prompting many retailers to jump the gun on incentives. So, if you want a 42-inch JVC LED TV for just $299, or a Xelio 10-inch tablet for just $49, with free shipping, today is your day, because all you are in the eyes of corporate America is …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, May 24, 2013 – Where the Puck Will Be

Where the Puck Will Be by Sinclair Noe DOW + 8 = 15,303SPX – 0.91 = 1649NAS – 0.27 = 345910 YR YLD – .01 = 2.01%OIL – .38 = 93.87GOLD – 5.20 = 1387.30SILV – .24 = 22.39 The S&P 500 is now down for 3 consecutive days and the major stock indices posted their first negative week in more than a month. For the week, the Dow slipped 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each lost 1.1 percent. The Federal Reserve left many people mildly dazed and slightly confused this week, what with Bernanke speaking before the Joint Economic Committee and the release of the FOMC minutes. It used to be easier to figure out the Fed; it was a fairly straightforward cost/benefit analysis of inflation versus employment and inflation was usually at the top of the list. Then all of the sudden financial instability suddenly became the main concern. So, people were rethinking monetary policy; probably thinking too much. I don’t think the Fed is ready to step away from its easy money policies, but they are likely to change the composition. Maybe a little less mortgage-backed securities purchases and a little more Zero Interest Rates; maybe they’ll look toward some other areas altogether. How about jumping into the Muni-bond market? Or something else that might be a bit more direct? Maybe the Fed could make some direct injections of capital for infrastructure. America has dropped in the World Economic Forum’s global rankings of economic …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Thursday, February 28, 2013 – How Now, Dow Jones

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ, April 5 & 6. For information please click here. This is an excellent conference. Hope to see you there. How Now, Dow Jones by Sinclair Noe DOW – 20 = 14,054SPX – 1 = 1514 NAS – 2 = 3160 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.89%OIL – .91 = 91.85GOLD – 16.80 = 1580.50SILV – .47 = 28.61 Kate can now marry Herbert; or is it Charley? I don’t remember; the idea was part of a play from the late 60’s, called “How Now, Dow Jones” and the idea was that the girl had been engaged for about 4 years to a stock broker, and the guy was putting off marriage on the pretext of having to wait until the Dow Industrial hit a record high, which back then meant a move above 1,000. The Dow closed above 1,000 in November 1972, and then it floundered through the 70’s and didn’t close above 1,000 again until 1982. So, we didn’t hit the record high today. No milk and cookies. I don’t remember what happened to Kate. Records are made to be broken but its not easy. Even when the Federal Reserve is juicing the market, it isn’t easy. Records are may to be broken. It doesn’t happen when you expect. The Nasdaq is still some 38% below its all-time high of 5,132.50, which was hit on March 10, 2000. In inflation-adjusted terms, this market average is …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, January 29, 2013 – Stimulus Truths and Tweaks

Stimulus Truths and Tweaks by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 13,954SPX + 7 = 1507NAS – 0.6 = 315310 YR YLD +.03 = 2.00%OIL + .88 = 97.32GOLD + 9.40 = 1664.90SILV + .54 = 31.48 We have a gaggle of economic reports this week and we’ll try to keep up. The Conference Board reported that its gauge of consumer confidence dropped to 58.6 in January, the lowest level since November 2011. Consumers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook and, in particular, their financial situation. The hike in the payroll tax is taking the brunt of the blame for the less-than-rosy outlook. Disposable income is actually declining. It’s hard to be happy when your purse shrinks. The sales price on existing homes dropped in November according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, down a non-seasonally adjusted 0.1% decrease in November following a 0.2% decline in October. After seasonal adjustments, the 20-city home-price index rose 0.6% in November. Despite the recent decline, prices were 5.5% higher than during the same period in the prior year, for the strongest year-over-year growth since August 2006. Tomorrow, we’ll get a glimpse of 4thQuarter GDP. The economy likely grew at a 1% pace, which is very weak. Also tomorrow, The Federal Reserve wraps up its first FOMC meeting for the new year. They will likely continue with a fairly aggressive approach to stimulate the economy. In December, the Fed committed to adding $45 billion of monthly Treasury purchases to the existing QE3 program to …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Wednesday, January 16, 2013 – Fuzzy Justice

Fuzzy Justice by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 13,511SPX +0.29 = 1472NAS + 6 = 311710 YR YLD – .01 = 1.82%OIL + .88 = 94.16GOLD + .10 = 1681.00SILV + .12 = 31.59 The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index was flat at a seasonally adjusted level of 47 in January. This is a gauge of homebuilders’ confidence. Conditions in the housing market look much better now than at the beginning of 2012 and an increasing number of housing markets are showing signs of recovery, which should bode well for future home sales later this year. The builder-confidence gauge is up 88% from the same period in the prior year, even though the number was essentially flat for the January reading. Industrial production increased 0.3% in December and now stands at the highest level since the summer of 2008. Production is up for 2 months, indicating a recovery from Hurricane Sandy. The House of Representatives finally passed a $51 billion aid package to provide emergency relief for Hurricane Sandy. It was a partisan vote, but 49 Republicans voted for the aid package, mainly representatives from the affected areas. The Consumer Price index was flat in December. The core rate of inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1%. Gasoline prices dropped last month. For all of 2012 consumer prices climbed 1.7%, the third lowest rate in the past 10 years. That’s also down from a 3% increase in the prior year. Core CPI was up 1.9% …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, July 31, 2012 – Waiting on Godot, Draghi, Bernanke, DeMarco, the Flood, and For The Lights to Come Back On

Waiting on Godot, Draghi, Bernanke, DeMarco, the Flood, and For The Lights to Come Back On-by Sinclair NoeDOW – 64 = 13,008SPX – 5 = 1379NAS – 6 = 293910 YR YLD -.01 = 1.49 OIL – 1.78 – 89.89GOLD – 7.00 = 1615.90SILV – .18 = 28.10PLAT + 1.00 = 1421.00We wrap up the month of July. Let’s look at the scorecard; for the month, the Dow Industrial gained 128 points; the S&P 500 index gained 17 points; the yield on the 10 year treasury note dropped 9 basis points. S&P Case Shiller index of home prices rose  2.2% in May. All 20 cities in the index saw monthly gains. On a year-over-year basis, prices are down 0.7% nationally, the smallest fall in 18 months. Phoenix prices have climbed 11.5% – the strongest in the nation, while Atlanta’s have dropped 14.5%. Meanwhile, Corelogic reports there were about 60,000 completed foreclosures in June, down from about 80,000 in the same month last year. According to the report there were roughly 3.7 million homes lost to foreclosures since  2008. Ed DeMarco, the acting chief of the regulator for Fannie and Freddie, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a letter to the top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee that “after much study,” he has concluded that Fannie and Freddie’s participation in the Obama administration’s program to cut the amount owed by underwater borrowers would “not make a meaningful improvement in reducing foreclosures in a cost effective way for taxpayers.”Treasury Secretary Tim …

READ MORE →