Financial Review

Down Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2019.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Deficit grows. Retail sales stagnant. Saudis threaten to weaponize oil. Sears BK. Earnings ramp up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2018

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Financial Review

About Face

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-15-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump reverts, CEOs flee. CBO says it pays to fund ACA. Retail sales bounce. Consumer debt climbs. Import prices up. Biz inventories up. HD and TJX earnings. Gates donates. More info at Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-15-2017

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Financial Review

A Bang or a Whimper

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSWhen the Bull market ends will it be with a bang or a whimper?

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Financial Review

Turkey Shoots

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-24-2015 DOW + 19 = 17,812 SPX + 2 = 2089 NAS + 0.33 = 5102 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.24% OIL + .89 = 42.64 GOLD + 6.70 = 1076.40 SILV + .05 = 14.30   The US economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously reported. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.1% annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 1.5%. Nearly all of the improvement was because of revised data on inventories, which showed businesses restocking shelves at a faster pace than the government first estimated. Still, company stockpiles remained elevated compared with sales, indicating that new orders and production will cool further to clear shelves and warehouses heading into 2016. Inventories grew at a $90 billion annualized rate from July through September, almost twice as much as previously estimated, but down from the second quarter.   The improvement in inventory levels was offset by a slight downward revision in consumer spending last quarter. Cheap gasoline is giving households a little extra money, and consumers are spending, just not quite as fast; consumer spending was revised down to 3% from 3.2% in the initial estimate for the third quarter. Consumption during the current fourth quarter, including the holiday shopping season, is expected to increase at an annualized rate of about 3%.   For all of 2015, the rate of …

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Financial Review

Maybe GM Is Too Damn Stupid To Exist

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,895 SPX + 25 = 2065 NAS + 43 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.14 = 47.03 Tuesday was one of the worst days for Wall Street in months; today we saw the biggest rally in a month. Go figure. The Dow and the S&P were up nearly 1.5%; the Nasdaq less of a gain as Intel warned that first-quarter sales would be below its previous outlook, given weaker-than-expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower inventory levels in the PC supply chain. Another day, another central bank jumps on the easing bandwagon.  South Korea joined twenty four countries across the globe by easing monetary policy in 2015. Taking advantage of low inflation, the Bank of Korea cut its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%. South Korea also previously cut its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.4% in January from 3.9%, and they are widely expected to lower it again next month as China’s growth continues to slow and much of Europe flounders.   The IMF has approved a bigger bailout for Ukraine, giving Kiev immediate access to $5 billion of the $17.5 billion in emergency funding to keep the country afloat. Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russian separatists has put the country’s economy into a tailspin with a plunging currency, the highest interest …

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Financial Review

Divergence

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,801 SPX – 0.49 = 2059 NAS + 25 = 4766 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22% OIL + .80 = 63.85 GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00 SILV + .73 = 17.21 We’ll start with economic news. The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening. The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher. The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While …

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Financial Review

The Brute Economic Power of Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE_SEG_1-09-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 61 = 16,987 SPX – 11 = 1985 NAS – 24 = 4567 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.61% OIL – .58 = 92.25 GOLD – 11.90 = 1229.30 SILV – .06 = 18.71 For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq was down 0.3%. Let’s start with the economic data: Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July vs a 0.8% rise in business sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at a healthy and lean 1.29. In a separate report, retail sales and consumer sentiment pointed at an improving economy. The preliminary September reading on the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index rose to the highest level since July 2013 and topped consensus expectations. Sales at US retailers rose in August by the largest amount since April, sales were up 0.6%; raising confidence in the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Retail sales would have been higher, but the price of gas dropped; after excluding gasoline, spending rose 0.7% in August. Of course, one of the reasons Americans spent more money going out and eating and shopping is because the price of gasoline has been low. Spending at gas stations declined an estimated 0.8% in August. That followed a flat July and another 0.8% drop in June. A separate report from the Labor Department on Friday …

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Financial Review

Thursday, May 29, 2014 – First Quarter GDP and Extreme Weather

First Quarter GDP and Extreme Weather by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 65 = 16,698 SPX + 10 = 1920 NAS + 22 = 4247 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.44% OIL + .79 = 103.51 GOLD – 2.70 = 1256.90 SILV + .02 = 19.14 The economy was worse than expected in the first quarter. The first estimate of first quarter gross domestic product showed 0.1% growth. Today, we got the second estimate and it showed 1.0% contraction. We figured the second estimate would show contraction but most estimates were calling for just 0.1% to 0.6% contraction. The newly revised estimate incorporates additional economic data released in recent weeks. Higher-than-expected imports and slower-than-expected inventory growth dragged the economy into negative territory.   US based corporations posted slightly lower, after tax, seasonally adjusted, first quarter profits of $1.88 trillion for the quarter, down from $1.905 trillion in the fourth quarter; but those numbers were not adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments; we know corporations are still holding bloated inventories. A big buildup in private inventories boosted economic growth in the third quarter of 2013, but left a hangover that weighed on growth in the first quarter of 2014. Inventories subtracted 1.62 percentage points from GDP growth, compared with an initial estimate of 0.57 percentage point subtracted from growth.   Business investment declined at a 1.6% pace, revised from an initially estimated decline at a 2.1% pace. Spending on structures fell at a 7.5% pace and spending on …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, December 05, 2013 – 46664

46664 by Sinclair Noe DOW – 68 = 15,821SPX – 7 = 1785NAS – 4 = 403310 YR YLD + .03 = 2.87%OIL + .18 = 97.38GOLD – 18.20 = 1226.10SILV – .28 = 19.54 Nelson Mandela is dead. News reports say the former South African President died peacefully at his home. He was 95. Nelson Mandela will be remembered as the person who, more than any other, brought an end to apartheid, the heartless policy of “separate development” in which white, black and South Asian South Africans were obliged to live apart. It is part of his towering achievement that the very notion of racial segregation is anathema throughout the civilized world. Yes, the stock market was down again today but the economy is doing better than you thought. Third quarter gross domestic product grew at a 3.6% pace, revised up from earlier estimates of 2.8%. Wow, sounds great, until you dig into the numbers. A large part of the revision, almost half, comes from an increase in inventories. Businesses were stocking the shelves. Were they predicting a gang-buster holiday shopping season or were they caught flat-footed by a lack of demand? We won’t know with certainty until we get through the fourth quarter, but most indications are that the economy is still slogging forward, and there doesn’t seem to be a need for such a large inventory buildup. We know businesses accumulated more than $116 billion in inventories in the quarter, the most since the first quarter of …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – Metric Disconnects

Metric Disconnects by Sinclair Noe DOW + 31 = 15451SPX + 4 = 1694NAS + 14 = 368410 YR YLD + .11 = 2.71%OIL + .42 = 106.53GOLD – 15.90 = 1322.40SILV + .03 = 21.56 Retail sales rose 0.2% in July, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June; retail sales are now up for 4 consecutive months. The retail sales report is important because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy. We’ve heard that so frequently that it sounds like a cliché, but when we spend, that money circulates through the economy and it is the vital life blood of the economy. Areas showing gains included restaurants and bars, grocery stores and sporting goods outlets. Within general merchandise, department stores showed a 0.6 percent increase in sales last month Another Commerce Department report today showed inventories at US companies were little changed. Merchants had enough goods on hand to last 1.29 months at the current sales pace in June. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Dennis Lockhart says he thinks policy makers should move cautiously this year to scale back its bond buying program. Lockhart says the Fed might make its first reduction before the end of the year, maybe as soon as September, and that it should be thought of as a cautious first step. So, Lockhart was a bit more dovish than other Fed policy makers of late, and as he made the comments, small losses on Wall Street gave way to modest gains. The …

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