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Monday, October 28, 2013 – Markets Are All About the Fed

10282013 Script Markets Are All About the Fed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 1 = 15,568SPX + 2 = 1762NAS – 3 = 394010 YR YLD + .01 = 2.51%OIL + .69 = 98.54GOLD + .30 = 1354.20SILV – .09 = 22.61 The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, is the Fed’s policy making arm; they will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to determine possible changes or adjustments to monetary policy. The broad consensus right now is that nothing will change. The government shutdown and a mixed batch of economic data convinced many the Fed would delay any move to begin trimming its stimulus into next year. The longer the Fed keeps its policy loose, the longer US yields will stay low, making the dollar less attractive. The dollar index was just a smidge higher today, but still trading very close to a 9 month low just under 79, reached on Friday, while the euro has been trading near 2 year highs. As long as the Fed’s easy money policy remains in effect it provides abundant liquidity for Wall Street. Last week the S&P 500 hit records and many global stock markets were also near record highs. The MSCI world equity index has been moving higher for 4 consecutive sessions and is near records of January 2008. The Fed’s easy money policy has served to support gold and other metals markets. After all the recent bullish movement, you might think the Fed’s dovish policy stance has been well priced into …

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Thursday, September 12, 2013 – Going Interstellar

Going Interstellar by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 15,300SPX – 5 = 1683NAS – 9 = 371510 YR YLD – .01 = 2.91%OIL + .02 = 108.62GOLD – 44.80 = 1322.00 SILV– 1.48 = 21.84 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The peace talks are underway in Geneva between Secretary of State Kerry and his Russian counterpart Lavrov. In a news conference ahead of the Geneva talks, Foreign Minister Lavrov said the resolution of the chemical weapons issue in Syria would make any military strike by the United States unnecessary. The UN has confirmed it has received documents from Syria on joining the Chemical Weapons Convention, a key step in the Russian plan. Syria’s president said it would submit arms data one month after signing, but Mr Kerry has rejected that time-frame. Even before the talks, Russian President Vlad Putin weighed in with an op-ed in the New York Times arguing that a military strike risked “spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders” and would violate international law, undermining postwar stability. Putin says poison gas was used in Syria but not by Assad; he also didn’t say who sold the poison gas to Syria; he talks about peace and democracy; and he finishes the editorial by saying “We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.” It’s all quite bizarre, to have Putin lecturing the US on democracy and morality and God. The good news is that the …

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Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – Metric Disconnects

Metric Disconnects by Sinclair Noe DOW + 31 = 15451SPX + 4 = 1694NAS + 14 = 368410 YR YLD + .11 = 2.71%OIL + .42 = 106.53GOLD – 15.90 = 1322.40SILV + .03 = 21.56 Retail sales rose 0.2% in July, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June; retail sales are now up for 4 consecutive months. The retail sales report is important because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy. We’ve heard that so frequently that it sounds like a cliché, but when we spend, that money circulates through the economy and it is the vital life blood of the economy. Areas showing gains included restaurants and bars, grocery stores and sporting goods outlets. Within general merchandise, department stores showed a 0.6 percent increase in sales last month Another Commerce Department report today showed inventories at US companies were little changed. Merchants had enough goods on hand to last 1.29 months at the current sales pace in June. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Dennis Lockhart says he thinks policy makers should move cautiously this year to scale back its bond buying program. Lockhart says the Fed might make its first reduction before the end of the year, maybe as soon as September, and that it should be thought of as a cautious first step. So, Lockhart was a bit more dovish than other Fed policy makers of late, and as he made the comments, small losses on Wall Street gave way to modest gains. The …

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Thursday, June 06, 2013 – The World is Changing

The World is Changing by Sinclair Noe DOW + 80 = 15,040SPX + 13 = 1622NAS + 22 = 342410 YR YLD – .03 = 2.07OIL + .91 = 94.41GOLD + 11.00 = 1414.70SILV + .04 = 22.69 Today is June 6; on this date 69 years ago, nearly 200,000 Allied troops invaded the Normandy coast. Today is and will always be D-Day. The world is changing. For the first time in modern times, the emerging markets now account for more than half of global GDP. And they are continuing to grow; the majority of global growth the rest of this decade will happen in the developing world. India and China alone will make up almost half of it. The growth in emerging markets is partly a matter of playing catch up. Emerging markets have more room to grow; developed markets have already experienced the growth. The center of world economics is shifting, and it is shifting to the east. The International Labor Organization released its annual “World of Work” (PDF)report today. The employment rate won’t return to pre-crisis levels in emerging markets until 2015, while advanced economies will have to wait until 2017 for their work woes to end. But even then, the number of unemployed people is still set to grow 4% to 208 million in 2015. How can the employment rate and unemployment levels rise simultaneously? Because the unemployed are dropping out of the work force: In more than half of the countries surveyed, labor force participation …

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Monday, March 11, 2013 – When to Hold Them

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. When to Hold Them By Sinclair Noe DOW + 50 = 14,447SPX + 5 = 1556NAS + 8 = 325210 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06OIL + .11 = 92.06GOLD + 2.60 = 1582.80SILV – .01 = 29.09 So, the Dow industrial Average hit another high, the S&P 500 is within 10 points of a record high. Capitalism is doing well under this socialist regime. Let’s imagine you actually participated in this rebound. Let’s work on the idea that you have an automatic investment plan, such as a 401k or a SEP or an IRA, and you are invested. What now? Do you continue to invest? Do you rebalance? And the answer is yes, if that is part of your investment plan. The record highs do not change the plan. What if you got out and did not participate in the rally? Again, we go back to your plan. Why did you get out? Was it part of the plan? If you have a plan and you don’t follow it, that is like not having a plan. If you don’t have a plan and you’re wondering what to do; the first order of business is to get a plan. What if you have a bad plan? And if you have ever been stuck in a bad plan, you know what I’m …

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Tuesday, May 22, 2012 – Bank Scum – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 1 = 12,502 SPX +0.64 = 1316NAS – 8 = 283910 YR YLD +.06 = 1.79%OIL – .92 = 91.65GOLD – 24.10 = 1569.30SILV – .27 = 28.30PLAT – 23.00 = 1451.00 Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are just pure scum. No wait, I shouldn’t say that; it’s much too kind; they are lying, stinking, thieving, dangerous scum. Maybe you heard about a little company called Facebook; it went public last Friday. Today, Reuters is reporting Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs all cut their earning forecasts for Facebook in the middle of the IPO roadshow. You didn’t hear about that? No, you did not hear about that because the big banksters didn’t tell you. Why didn’t they tell you? Because they thought it would be much better to screw the public and try to make a quick buck on insider information, which they are required by law to report. Instead, the banksters passed the information only to a handful of big investor clients. This is a problem because earnings forecasts are material information, especially when they are prepared by analysts who have special access to company information and company management. Everybody who invested in Facebook would consider this material information when making an informed decision. The handful of big investors that did receive the information about reduced revenue forecasts were reportedly shocked. The change in Morgan Stanley’s estimates came on the heels of Facebook’s filing of an amended prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in …

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